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This textbook guides the student step-by-step in developing and solving a DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model–not only from the technical and conceptual aspects but also through the simulation process of each model. Characterized by a learning-by-doing approach, the book is set apart from the extant textbooks in three ways. First, it performs all the algebra associated with each model, such as the calculation of steady-state and the log-linearization of the model. Second, each model developed has been generated in Dynare, and every chapter is accompanied by a set of codes (mod-files and m-files) that the reader can use to replicate the model developed in every chapter. Finally, the models considered are toy models in the closed and open economy, which allows the student to learn the basic lessons and understand the fundamental relationships of the variables. All of this prepares the student to deal with more complex models. This book is intended for advanced undergraduate or beginning graduate courses in economics, finance, or applied mathematics, as well as practitioners in central banks that use these models daily in the preparation of forecasts or simulations of aggregate variables.

This handbook is a milestone in the field of historical economics and econometric history through its emphasis on the concrete contribution of cliometrics to our knowledge in economics and history. The articles in the handbook authored by the leading scholars in the fields, stress the usefulness of cliometrics for economists, historians and social scientists in general. The handbook offers a comprehensive coverage of topics with each article providing an overview of the contributions of cliometrics to a particular topic. The handbook has set a new standard of quality in the field by offering a world-wide forum of discussion in cliometrics. This updated and extended third edition of the handbook of cliometrics offers a substantially enlarged collection of articles and thus stresses its unique position as authoritative reference work in this field.

This textbook offers a compact, yet formal, synthesis of the broad field of consumption theory. Written in a coherent and accessible way, this book introduces graduate and postgraduate students to dynamic optimization applied to consumption under certainty and uncertainty, in discrete and continuous time. Delving into deterministic and stochastic models, including the use of Brownian motions, the book offers a deeper understanding of consumption decisions and their impact on asset pricing and investment in partial and general equilibrium. This book compiles lecture notes from advanced courses in micro- and macroeconomics, ensuring a self-contained introduction to the subject. Balancing simplicity with analytical rigor, the book equips readers with essential methodological tools for advanced research in economics. With empirical evidence and exercises integrated throughout, this textbook stands as the go-to resource for scholars and students alike, fostering further theoretical explorations in the field. Basic knowledge of economics, mathematics, and econometrics is recommended for a comprehensive understanding.

Contemporary macroeconomics is built upon microeconomic principles, with its most recent advance featuring dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The textbook by Heer and Maußner acquaints readers with the essential computational techniques required to tackle these models and employ them for quantitative analysis. This third edition maintains the structure of the second, dividing the content into three separate parts dedicated to representative agent models, heterogeneous agent models, and numerical methods. At the same time, every chapter has been revised and two entirely new chapters have been added. The updated content reflects the latest advances in both numerical methods and their applications in macroeconomics, spanning areas like business-cycle analysis, economic growth theory, distributional economics, monetary and fiscal policy. The two new chapters delve into advanced techniques, including higher-order perturbation, weighted residual methods, and solutions to high-dimensional nonlinear problems. In addition, the authors present further insights from macroeconomic theory, complemented by practical applications like the Smolyak algorithm, Gorman aggregation, rare disaster models and dynamic Laffer curves. Lastly, the new edition places special emphasis on practical implementation across various programming languages; accordingly, its accompanying web page offers examples of computer code for languages such as MATLAB®, GAUSS, Fortran, Julia and Python.

Dieses Buch untersucht, warum österreichische Ökonomen es versäumen, den Rahmen der spontanen Ordnung auf kooperative Beziehungen – wie einen dynamischen und sich entwickelnden öffentlichen Sektor – anzuwenden, die einen florierenden Markt ergänzen könnten. Als direkte Antwort auf Israel Kirzners'The Driving Force of the Market'stellt sie die traditionelle österreichische Wirtschaftswissenschaft infrage, indem sie die demokratische Prozesstheorie als Parallele zur Marktprozesstheorie vorschlägt und die Möglichkeiten einer Wirtschaftsorganisation aufzeigt, die sich die Kraft einer transparenten und effektiven Demokratie zunutze macht. Unter Berücksichtigung der zentralen Probleme, die in sozialistischen und kapitalistischen Ländern aufgrund eigennütziger politischer und wirtschaftlicher Akteure aufgetreten sind, hebt'Die treibende Kraft des Kollektivs'die Vorteile des öffentlichen Sektors hervor, die sich daraus ergeben, dass sich Kultur und Institutionen endogen als spontane Ordnung des öffentlichen Sektors entwickeln können

Revised and updated for the second edition, this textbook allows students to work through classic texts in economics and finance, using the original data and replicating their results. In this book, the author rejects the theorem-proof approach as much as possible, and emphasizes the practical application of econometrics. They show with examples how to calculate and interpret the numerical results.This book begins with students estimating simple univariate models, in a step by step fashion, using the popular Stata software system. Students then test for stationarity, while replicating the actual results from hugely influential papers such as those by Granger & Newbold, and Nelson & Plosser. Readers will learn about structural breaks by replicating papers by Perron, and Zivot & Andrews. They then turn to models of conditional volatility, replicating papers by Bollerslev. Students estimate multi-equation models such as vector autoregressions and vector error-correction mechanisms, replicating the results in influential papers by Sims and Granger. Finally, students estimate static and dynamic panel data models, replicating papers by Thompson, and Arellano & Bond.The book contains many worked-out examples, and many data-driven exercises. While intended primarily for graduate students and advanced undergraduates, practitioners will also find the book useful.“How to best start learning time series econometrics? Learning by doing. This is the ethos of this book. What makes this book useful is that it provides numerous worked out examples along with basic concepts. It is a fresh, no-nonsense, practical approach that students will love when they start learning time series econometrics. I recommend this book strongly as a study guide for students who look for hands-on learning experience.'--Professor Sokbae'Simon'Lee, Columbia University, Co-Editor of Econometric Theory and Associate Editor of Econometrics Journal.

Volumes 45a and 45b of Advances in Econometrics honor Professor Joon Y. Park, who has made numerous and substantive contributions to the field of econometrics over a career spanning four decades since the 1980s and counting. This second volume, Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, focuses on econometric applications related, some closely and some very loosely, to Professor Park's more recent work before concluding with a retrospective summarizing four decades of Advances in Econometrics.

Volumes 45a and 45b of Advances in Econometrics honor Joon Y. Park, Wisnewsky Professor of Human Studies and Professor of Economics at Indiana University. Professor Park has made numerous and substantive contributions to the field of econometrics since beginning his academic career in the mid-1980s and has held positions at Cornell University, University of Toronto, Seoul National University, Rice University, Texas A&M University, and Sungkyunkwan University. This first volume, Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Theory, features contributions to econometric theory related to Professor Park's analysis of time series and particularly related to the research of the first two or so decades of his career.

This book contains detailed documentation of the CHINAGEM model - a large-scale dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China and its applications. Specifically, this book documents the theory and database behind the CHINAGEM model. This book explores the closure development for the four simulation modes of the model including historical, decomposition, forecast and policy simulations, the detailed explanation of how to analyze simulation results, and the extensions of CHINAGEM and their applications. These extensions include several innovative modules and case studies as examples of the application of CHINAGEM. This book provides an entry point for CGE modellers to develop their analytical skills. This book can also be used as a platform for research institutes to develop CGE models suitable for their research portfolio. The module developments included in this book are designed to capture the specific features of the Chinese economy. The applications of these modules chosen in the book cover hot policy issues in China, and the simulation results have valuable policy implications. This book identifies that the CHINAGEM model itself and all the extensions can be used for analysing many new topics and policy issues such as the effects of the USA–China trade war, the effects of Made in China 2025 Plan as well as China's commitment to the carbon neutrality before 2060 and its economic implications.

Seasonality in economic time series can'obscure'movements of other components in a series that are operationally more important for economic and econometric analyses. In practice, one often prefers to work with seasonally adjusted data to assess the current state of the economy and its future course. This book presents a seasonal adjustment program called CAMPLET, an acronym of its tuning parameters, which consists of a simple adaptive procedure to extract the seasonal and the non-seasonal component from an observed series. Once this process is carried out, there will be no need to revise these components at a later stage when new observations become available. The authors describe the main features of CAMPLET, evaluate the outcomes of CAMPLET and X-13ARIMA-SEATS in a controlled simulation framework using a variety of data generating processes, and illustrate CAMPLET and X-13ARIMA-SEATS with three time series: US non-farm payroll employment, operational income of Ahold and real GDP in the Netherlands. Furthermore they show how CAMPLET performs under the COVID-19 crisis, and its attractiveness in dealing with daily data. This book appeals to scholars and students of econometrics and statistics, interested in the application of statistical methods for empirical economic modeling.

This book analyses the dynamics of Indian stock market with a special emphasis during the period following emergence of Covid-19. Coming from the instability in stock market following Covid-19, it delves deeper into the dynamics and unfolds the causal relationship between various economic fundamentals and the stock prices. Observing short-term herding in the stock market following Covid-19, the book's finding suggests that investors in the Indian stock market made investment choices irrationally during Covid-19 crisis periods. It also showcases how the stock market became inefficient following the emergence of pandemic and did not follow the fundamentals. Interestingly, the findings suggest no relationship between stock returns and real economic activities in India. The format of presentation makes the book well suited not only for students, academics, policy makers and investors in the stock markets, but also people engaged or interested in business and finance. The book wouldthus be of interest to both specialists and the laity. Analysis contained in this book will help different readership groups in different ways. Researchers from economics and finance disciplines will be able to learn about frontiers in the theoretical paradigms discussed in the book; advanced econometric techniques applied in the book will also be useful for their own research. The macroeconomic insights, and insights from behavioural economics, can expand the knowledge of corporate sector, useful in making real life decisions. Finally, it will help policy makers, like SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India), to formulate appropriate regulatory policies so as to minimize possibility of speculative bubbles as experienced during the pandemic period in the Indian stock markets.

This book provides an analytical and computational approach to solving and simulating the Mahalanobis model and the papers surrounding it. The book comes up, perhaps for the first time, with a holistic examination of an important growth model that emerged out of India in the 1950s. It contains detailed derivations of the Mahalanobis model and the several critiques and extensions surrounding it with an organized synthesis of the main results. Computationally, the book simulates the model and its many variants, thus making it accessible to a wider audience. Advanced undergraduates and beginning graduate students in the fields of Economics, Mathematics, and Statistics will gain immensely from understanding both the mathematical aspects as well as the computational aspects of the Mahalanobis model. In the absence of a single'go-to'source on all aspects of the model -- analytical and computational -- this book is a definitive volume on the Mahalanobis model that has allthe derivations of all the papers surrounding the model, its dissents and critiques, and extensions as in the wage goods model suggested by Vakil and Brahmananda.

This edited volume is based on original essays first presented at seminars in complexity economics, Sichuan University, China, in November 2018 and May 2019, and at the 12th International Conference on the Chinese Economy, University of Clermont-Ferrand, France, in October 2019. It also includes three contributions written especially for this volume. This research benefited from three French grants'Hubert Curien Research Fellowship'(Program Campus France 2019, 2020, 2021). All chapters assess the recent take-off of the Chinese economy from a historical perspective, enlarging the economic evidence that China's capitalism is a matter of institutional revolution.Institutional Change and China Capitalism aims to provide a radically new view of the rise of Chinese capitalism by drawing on recent developments in cliometrics and complexity economics, macroeconomic dynamics, network analysis and behavioral finance to illustrate the various facets of China's transition to capitalism. The chapters within innovate the study of China's take-off using the frontier of research in institutional cliometrics and complexity economics. Thus, the book is structured in three sections that seek to address — empirically, theoretically, and in terms of network structure, the profound institutional change that led China to progressively adopt capitalism.Together these papers attest to the vitality of current research in cliometrics and complexity economics.

This festschrift volume presents discussions on contemporary issues in international economics and finance. It is aimed to serve as a reference material for researchers. There are two broad sections of the book -- International Macroeconomics and International Finance. The chapters in the International Macroeconomics section discuss critical topics like aggregate level macro model for India with a new Keynesian perspective, balance of payments, service sector exports, foreign exchange constraints for import demands, foreign direct investment and knowledge spill over, the relationship between forex rate fluctuation and investment, Institutional quality-trade openness-economic growth nexus, currency crises and debt-deficit relationship in the BRICS countries in the backdrop of COVID-19. Apart from these, various analytical issues related to macroeconomic policies are also covered in this section. The topics discussed includes the nature of forex market interventions, the issue of disinvestment and privatization, changing nature of fiscal policy, the inflation-growth nexus, macroeconomic simulation modelling, measuring core inflation, central bank credibility, monetary policy, inflation targeting, Infrastructure, trade, unemployment and inequality nexus. In the International Finance section, topics such as COVID-19 induced financial crisis, commodity futures volatility, stock market connectivity, volatility persistence, determinants of sovereign bond yields, FII and stock market volatility, cryptocurrency price formation, financialization of Indian commodity market, and a Keynesian view of the financial crisis are discussed. Overall, thirty two chapters in the volume discuss cutting edge research in the areas of the two sections. A tour de force... a lucid guide to some of the diverse and complex issues in International Macroeconomics and Finance. This collection of scholarly works is a fitting tribute to respected Prof. Bandi Kamaiah and hisenviable academic contributions.- Prof. Y V Reddy, Former Governor, Reserve Bank of India This volume comprising thoughtful essays by our leading scholars on some of important policy issues that India is facing is indeed a rich tribute to Professor Bandi Kamaiah. This book will greatly benefit the academic community as well as our policy makers.- Prof. Vijay Kelkar, Chairman, 13th Finance Commission of India; Chairman, India Development Foundation, Mumbai, India Noted economists from India and abroad gather to apply the rigorous searchlight that Professor Bandi Kamaiah used so effectively in his career. Major current topics in macroeconomics and international finance are effectively explored in the volume.- Prof. Ashima Goyal, Emeritus Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India; and Member, Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India This volume of 32 papers in macroeconomics, international economics, and international finance is intended as a tribute to the eminent econometrician, Prof B Kamaiah. Post-graduate students and researchers will find much valuable literature in the volume, which is a fitting tribute to Prof Kamaiah. The editors and authors deserve rich compliments.- Prof. K L Krishna, Former Director, Delhi School of Economics, New Delhi, India I am so happy to hear that Dr. Kamaiah's colleagues and ex-students are bringing out a special volume of articles in his honor. Nothing can be more appropriate. Dr. Kamaiah, being a man of tremendous publications, deserves this tribute. I wish all the luck and success to the new book.

Both parts of Volume 44 of Advances in Econometrics pay tribute to Fabio Canova for his major contributions to economics over the last four decades. Throughout his long and distinguished career, Canova's research has achieved both a prolific publication record and provided stellar research to the profession. His colleagues, co-authors and PhD students wish to express their deep gratitude to Fabio for his intellectual leadership and guidance, whilst showcasing the extensive advances in knowledge and theory made available by Canova for professionals in the field. Advances in Econometrics publishes original scholarly econometrics papers with the intention of expanding the use of developed and emerging econometric techniques by disseminating ideas on the theory and practice of econometrics throughout the empirical economic, business and social science literature. Annual volume themes, selected by the Series Editors, are their interpretation of important new methods and techniques emerging in economics, statistics and the social sciences.

Both parts of Volume 44 of Advances in Econometrics pay tribute to Fabio Canova for his major contributions to economics over the last four decades. Throughout his long and distinguished career, Canova's research has achieved both a prolific publication record and provided stellar research to the profession. His colleagues, co-authors and PhD students wish to express their deep gratitude to Fabio for his intellectual leadership and guidance, whilst showcasing the extensive advances in knowledge and theory made available by Canova for professionals in the field. Advances in Econometrics publishes original scholarly econometrics papers with the intention of expanding the use of developed and emerging econometric techniques by disseminating ideas on the theory and practice of econometrics throughout the empirical economic, business and social science literature. Annual volume themes, selected by the Series Editors, are their interpretation of important new methods and techniques emerging in economics, statistics and the social sciences.

This volume presents techniques and theories drawn from mathematics, statistics, computer science, and information science to analyze problems in business, economics, finance, insurance, and related fields. The authors present proposals for solutions to common problems in related fields. To this end, they are showing the use of mathematical, statistical, and actuarial modeling, and concepts from data science to construct and apply appropriate models with real-life data, and employ the design and implementation of computer algorithms to evaluate decision-making processes. This book is unique as it associates data science - data-scientists coming from different backgrounds - with some basic and advanced concepts and tools used in econometrics, operational research, and actuarial sciences. It, therefore, is a must-read for scholars, students, and practitioners interested in a better understanding of the techniques and theories of these fields.

This handbook presents emerging research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of econometric techniques for the financial sector and their applications in economics. By doing so, it offers invaluable tools for predicting and weighing the risks of multiple investments by incorporating data analysis. Throughout the book the authors address a broad range of topics such as predictive analysis, monetary policy, economic growth, systemic risk and investment behavior. This book is a must-read for researchers, scholars and practitioners in the field of economics who are interested in a better understanding of current research on the application of econometric methods to financial sector data.

This book studies China's international relations, development strategies and development path. It provides an objective and in-depth analysis of areas including international relations in the context of China's population and resource environment, ways to strengthen China's external competitiveness, strategies for economic security and China's trade currency, Sino-US relations in the 21st Century, geopolitical strategy and great renaissance of Chinese culture. The book analyzes the difficulties, challenges and unique features of China's economic and social development. Further, it examines long-term and short-term social and economic issues as well as the difficulties in dealing with the issues. It provides objective and realistic suggestions for realizing China's dream of the great rejuvenation of the nation. It is a valuable source of reference for researchers and practitioners interested in China's development.

There are many different types of convergence within economics, as well as several methods to analyse each of them. This book addresses the concept of real economic convergence or the gradual levelling-off of GDP (gross domestic product) per capita rates across economies. In addition to a detailed, holistic overview of the history and theory, the authors include a description of two modern methods of assessing the occurrence and rate of convergence, BMA-based and HMM-based, as well as the results of the empirical analysis. Readers will have access not only to the conventional econometric approach of β convergence but also to an alternative one, allowing for the convergence issue to be expressed in the context of automatic pattern recognition. This approach is universal as it can be adapted to a variety of input data. The lowest aggregation level study investigates regional convergence through the case of Polish voivodships, where convergence towards the leader is tested. On a higher level of aggregation, the authors examine the existence of GDP convergence in such groups as the EU28, North Africa and the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, Caribbean, South-East Asia, Australia and Oceania, or post-socialist countries. For each group, the real β convergence is tested using the two above-mentioned approaches. The results are widely discussed, broadly illustrated, interpreted, and compared. The analysis allows readers to draw interesting conclusions about the causes of convergence or the drivers behind divergence. The book will stimulate further research in the field, but the research was conducted from the point of view of individual countries.

The book provides a comprehensive overview of the latest econometric methods for studying the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It examines alternative methodological approaches and concepts, including quantile spectra and co-spectra, and explores topics such as non-linear and non-stationary behavior, stochastic volatility models, and the econometrics of commodity markets and globalization. Furthermore, it demonstrates the application of recent techniques in various fields: in the frequency domain, in the analysis of persistent dynamics, in the estimation of state space models and new classes of volatility models.The book is divided into two parts: The first part applies econometrics to the field of macroeconomics, discussing trend/cycle decomposition, growth analysis, monetary policy and international trade. The second part applies econometrics to a wide range of topics in financial economics, including price dynamics in equity, commodity and foreign exchange markets and portfolio analysis. The book is essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners in government and financial institutions interested in applying recent econometric time series methods to financial and economic data.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020 presents research by leading scholars on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. George-Marios Angeletos, Zhen Huo, and Karthik Sastry ask how to model expectations without rational expectations. They find that in response to business cycle shocks, expectations underreact initially but eventually overshoot, which in their view favors models with dispersed, noisy information and overextrapolation of expectations. Next, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Pierre-Daniel Sarte, and Nicholas Trachter contrast the patterns of rising aggregate firm market concentration with falling market concentration over time at the local level. Some associate rising concentration with less competition and more market power, but because most product markets are local, studying changes in local competition, as opposed to trends in aggregate competition, provides important insights. Adam Guren, Alisdair McKay, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson develop a novel econometric procedure to recover structural parameters using cross-region variation, for example, to estimate direct effects of housing wealth changes on individual household consumption. To avoid confounding direct and indirect effects, the authors isolate the direct effect of house price changes on consumption by using other estimates of demand multipliers from the local government spending literature to deflate estimates of the total effect of local consumption on local house prices. Peter Klenow and Huiyu Li examine the sources of reduced productivity growth by quantifying the contribution of innovation to economic growth. They find that young firms generate roughly half the productivity growth, most of the changes in productivity during the mid-1990s are accounted for by older firms, and most growth results from quality improvements on incumbents'own products. In the fifth chapter, Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan, and Jae Song use detailed micro panel data from the Social Security Administration to assess the progress women have made into the top 1% and top 0.1% of the income distribution over time. Finally, Joachim Hubmer, Per Krusell, and Anthony Smith Jr. explore the reasons for growing wealth inequality across the developed world. They argue that the significant drop in tax progressivity starting in the late 1970s was the most important source of growing wealth inequality in the United States. The sharp observed increases in earnings inequality and the falling labor share cannot account for the bulk of the increase in wealth inequality.

This is the third corrected and extended edition of a book on deterministic and stochastic Growth Theory and the computational methods needed to produce numerical solutions. Exogenous and endogenous growth, non-monetary and monetary models are thoroughly reviewed. Special attention is paid to the use of these models for fiscal and monetary policy analysis. Models under modern theories of the Business Cycle, New Keynesian Macroeconomics, and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models, can be all considered as special cases of economic growth models, and they can be analyzed by the theoretical and numerical procedures provided in the textbook.Analytical discussions are presented in full detail. The book is self-contained and it is designed so that the student advances in the theoretical and the computational issues in parallel. Spreadsheets are used to solve simple examples. Matlab files are provided on an accompanying website to illustrate theoretical results from all chapters as well as to simulate the effects of economic policy interventions. The logical structure of these program files is described in'Numerical exercise'-type of sections, where the output of these programs is also interpreted. The third edition corrects a few typographical errors, includes two new and original chapters on frequentist and Bayesian estimation, and improves some notation.

This book has studied the principle, essence and development law of sharing economics. First of all, it analyzes the inevitability of sharing economics as the mainstream and determines that its research object is the social resources of the production, gathering, exchange, use, distribution and value creation disciplines. Secondly, it defines and analyzes the connotation, scope, concept, characteristics, research hypothesis, property right attribute, constituent elements and income distribution of the sharing economics which aims to improve the efficiency of resource allocation and reduce the market transaction cost. This book is characterized by the construction of a theoretical system composed of contingency, cooperative consumption, cognitive surplus and impersonal transaction. This book provides readers with a theoretical theory of sharing economics and an important theoretical reference for innovative entrepreneurship.

This textbook is a comprehensive introduction to applied spatial data analysis using R. Each chapter walks the reader through a different method, explaining how to interpret the results and what conclusions can be drawn. The author team showcases key topics, including unsupervised learning, causal inference, spatial weight matrices, spatial econometrics, heterogeneity and bootstrapping. It is accompanied by a suite of data and R code on Github to help readers practise techniques via replication and exercises. This text will be a valuable resource for advanced students of econometrics, spatial planning and regional science. It will also be suitable for researchers and data scientists working with spatial data.

This book presents the state of the art in the relatively new field of dynamic economic modelling with regime switches. The contributions, written by prominent scholars in the field, focus on dynamic decision problems with regime changes in underlying dynamics or objectives. Such changes can be externally driven or internally induced by decisions. Utilising the most advanced mathematical methods in optimal control and dynamic game theory, the authors address a broad range of topics, including capital accumulation, innovations, financial decisions, population economics, environmental and resource economics, institutional change and the dynamics of addiction. Given its scope, the book will appeal to all scholars interested in mathematical and quantitative economics.

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR, one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, has been focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis, and it started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005.Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China'major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-six quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and thirteen annual reports have been published. This 27th quarterly report has been presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Prospects and Press Conference of the CQMM at Xiamen University Malaysia on October 25, 2019. This conference was jointly held by Xiamen University and Economic Information Daily of Xinhua News Agency.

This book explores new topics in modern research on empirical corporate finance and applied accounting, especially the econometric analysis of microdata. Dubbed “financial microeconometrics” by the author, this concept unites both methodological and applied approaches. The book examines how quantitative methods can be applied in corporate finance and accounting research in order to predict companies getting into financial distress. Presented in a clear and straightforward manner, it also suggests methods for linking corporate governance to financial performance, and discusses what the determinants of accounting disclosures are. Exploring these questions by way of numerous practical examples, this book is intended for researchers, practitioners and students who are not yet familiar with the variety of approaches available for data analysis and microeconometrics.“This book on financial microeconometrics is an excellent starting point for research in corporate finance and accounting. In my view, the text is positioned between a narrative and a scientific treatise. It is based on a vast amount of literature but is not overloaded with formulae. My appreciation of financial microeconometrics has very much increased. The book is well organized and properly written. I enjoyed reading it.” Wolfgang Marty, Senior Investment Strategist, AgaNola AG

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR is one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, focusing on Chinese economic growth and macroeconomic policies. The CMR started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecast, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005.Based on the CQMM, the CMR with its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China'major macroeconomic variables. Since July 2006, twenty-seven quarterly reports titled Chinese Macroeconomic Outlook have been presented and thirteen annual reports have been published.

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR, one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, has been focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis, and it started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005.Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China's major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-six quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and thirteen annual reports have been published. This report, the twenty-sixth quarterly report, has been presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMMon February 26, 2019. This conference was jointly held at Beijing by the CMR and the Economic Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency

Gevorg Hunanyan develops a model that provides a comprehensive theoretical framework to study the consequences of short-sale constraints on the stability of financial markets. This model shows that overpricing of securities is solely attributable to the subjective second moment beliefs of investors. Thus, short-sale constraints prevent a market decline only if investors have low dispersion of beliefs, which in the model is embodied in the covariance matrix. Moreover, the author analyses the consequences of short-sale constraints on the investor's portfolio selection, risk-taking behaviour as well as default probability. The author develops criteria that allow to analyse the effectiveness of short-sale constraints in reducing portfolio risk as well as default risk.

This volume develops original methods of analyzing biased technological progress in the theory and empirics of economic growth and income distribution. Motivated by sharp increases in wage and income inequalities in the world since the beginning of the new century, many macroeconomists have begun to realize the importance of biased technological changes. However, the comprehensive explanations have not yet appeared. This volume analyzes the effects of factor-biased technological progress on growth and income distribution and shows that long-run trends of the capital-income ratio and capital share of income consistent with Piketty's 2014 empirical results emerge. Incorporating the modified version of induced innovation theory into the standard neoclassical growth model, it also explains the long-run fluctuations of growth and income distribution consistent with the data shown in Piketty. Introducing a wage-setting function, the neoclassical growth model is modified to account for unemployment as well as to examine the dynamics of unemployment and the labor share of income under biased technological progress. Applying a new econometric method to Japanese industrial data, the authors test the key assumptions employed and important results derived in the theoretical part of this book.

Why should we be interested in macroeconomic survey expectations? This important book offers an in-depth treatment of this question from a point of view not covered in existing works on time-series econometrics and forecasting. Clements presents the nature of survey data, addresses some of the difficulties posed by the way in which survey expectations are elicited and considers the evaluation of point predictions and probability distributions. He outlines how, from a behavioural perspective, surveys offer insight into how economic agents form their expectations.

This instructor's manual complements the textbook Money: Theory and Practice which provides an introduction to modern monetary economics for advanced undergraduates, highlighting the lessons learned from the recent financial crisis. The manual provides teachers with exercises and examples that reflect both the core New Keynesian model and recent advances, taking into account financial frictions, and discusses recent research on an intuitive level based on simple static and two-period models.

This textbook provides an introduction to modern monetary economics for advanced undergraduates, highlighting the lessons learned from the recent financial crisis. The book presents both the core New Keynesian model and recent advances, taking into account financial frictions, and discusses recent research on an intuitive level based on simple static and two-period models, but also prepares readers for an extension to a truly dynamic analysis. Further, it offers a systematic perspective on monetary policy, covering a wide range of models to help readers gain a better understanding of controversial issues. Part I examines the long-run perspective, addressing classical monetary policy issues such as determination of the price level and interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Part II introduces the core New Keynesian model, characterizing optimal monetary policy to stabilize short-term shocks. It discusses rules vs. discretion and the challenges arising from control errors, imperfect information and robustness issues. It also analyzes optimal control in the presence of an effective lower bound. Part III focuses on modelling financial frictions. It identifies the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy via banking and introduces models with incomplete markets, principal-agent problems, maturity mismatch and leverage cycles, to show why investors'and intermediaries'own stakes play a key role in lending with pro-cyclical features. In addition, it presents a tractable model for handling liquidity management and demonstrates that the need to sell assets in crisis amplifies the volatility of the real economy. Lastly, the book discusses the relation between monetary policy and financial stability, addressing systemic risk and the role of macro-prudential regulation.

In this book, the author rejects the theorem-proof approach as much as possible, and emphasize the practical application of econometrics. They show with examples how to calculate and interpret the numerical results. This book begins with students estimating simple univariate models, in a step by step fashion, using the popular Stata software system. Students then test for stationarity, while replicating the actual results from hugely influential papers such as those by Granger and Newbold, and Nelson and Plosser. Readers will learn about structural breaks by replicating papers by Perron, and Zivot and Andrews. They then turn to models of conditional volatility, replicating papers by Bollerslev. Finally, students estimate multi-equation models such as vector autoregressions and vector error-correction mechanisms, replicating the results in influential papers by Sims and Granger. The book contains many worked-out examples, and many data-driven exercises. While intended primarily for graduate students and advanced undergraduates, practitioners will also find the book useful.

The extensive monetary policy of central banks during the Great Recession has re-newed the interest in the relation between (possibly) non-neutral money and wealth and income inequality. In this work, a dynamic general equilibrium model approach is used to study the effects of an inflation rate change on inequality. These effects are found to be temporary and to work through two channels: First, at the consumer level, intertemporal substitution effects differ even under an identical policy rule of all agents due to individual skill and capital endowments. This implies a transitory effect of inflation rate changes on inequality. Second, an indirect effect results from different capital intensities in industrial branches and capital-labour substitution effects. This may be endorsed by varying individual skill levels. The theoretical model‘s implications are tested empirically in a time series analysis on US data.

This conference proceedings volume presents advanced methods in time series estimation models that are applicable various areas of applied economic research such as international economics, macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance economics and agricultural economics. Featuring contributions presented at the 2018 International Conference on Applied Economics (ICOAE) held in Warsaw, Poland, this book presents contemporary research using applied econometric method for analysis as well as country specific studies with potential implications on economic policy. Applied economics is a rapidly growing field of economics that combines economic theory with econometrics to analyse economic problems of the real world usually with economic policy interest. ICOAE is an annual conference started in 2008 with the aim to bring together economists from different fields of applied economic research in order to share methods and ideas. Approximately 150 papers are submitted each year from about 40 countries around the world. The goal of the conference and the enclosed papers is to allow for an exchange of experiences with different applied econometric methods and to promote joint initiatives among well-established economic fields such as finance, agricultural economics, health economics, education economics, international trade theory and management and marketing strategies. Featuring global contributions, this book will be of interest to researchers, academics, professionals and policy makers in the field of applied economics and econometrics.

This textbook offers a unique approach to macroeconomic theory built on microeconomic foundations of monetary macroeconomics within a unified framework of an intertemporal general equilibrium model extended to a sequential and dynamic analysis. It investigates the implications of expectations and of stationary fiscal policies on allocations, on the quantity of money, and on the dynamic evolution of the economy with and without noise. The text contrasts and compares the two main competing approaches in macroeconomics within the same intertemporal model of a closed monetary economy: the one postulating full price flexibility to guarantee equilibrium in all markets at all times under perfect foresight or rational expectations, versus the so called disequilibrium approach where trading occurs at non- market-clearing prices and wages when these adjust sluggishly from period to period in response to market disequilibrium signals.

Advances in Econometrics is a research annual whose editorial policy is to publish original research articles that contain enough details so that economists and econometricians who are not experts in the topics will find them accessible and useful in their research. Volume 37 exemplifies this focus by highlighting key research from new developments in econometrics.

This book explores the US economy from 1960 to 2010 using a more Keynsian, Cowles model approach, which the author argues has substantial advantages over the vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models used almost exclusively today. Heim presents a robust argument in favor of the Cowles model as an answer to the pressing, unresolved methodological question of how to accurately model the macroeconomy so that policymakers can reliably use these models to assist their decision making. Thirty-eight behavioral equations, describing determinants of variables such as consumption, taxes, and government spending, are connected by eighteen identities to construct a comprehensive model of the real US economy that Heim then tests across four different time periods to ensure that results are consistent. This comprehensive demonstration of the value of a long-ignored model provides overwhelming evidence that the more Keynesian (Cowles) structural models outperform VAR and DSGE, and therefore should be the models of choice in future macroeconomic studies.

This book focuses on taxation and economic policy making. It contains a variety of contributions devoted to important theoretical and empirical topics of taxation. Among the issues discussed are tax reforms, the poverty trap and the Laffer curve, taxation and the inverted Haavelmo effect, the excess burden of taxation in the United States, corporation tax harmonisation and taxation policy and economic integration. In addition, it contains a survey of the tax policies actually pursued by Austria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States in the 1980s and the 1990s thus providing an unique documentation for an international comparison. The book will be of interest for anyone who is professionally involved with the theory and practise of taxation.

This book is an applications-oriented text designed for individuals who desire a hands-on approach to analyzing the effects of fiscal and monetary policies. Significantly updated to provide an understanding of the post-financial crisis economy, the third edition covers the subprime crisis in detail, discussing monetary policies enacted in its wake, such as quantitative easing, tapering, carry trades, CMOs, and monetization. Even more globally oriented than previous editions, this volume links the Great Recession and US Monetary Policy to global hot capital flows and currency pegs. This edition also revisits the Eurozone in significant detail; discussing its history, its macroeconomic design challenges, and its present imperiled state, in the context of global macropolicy. Finally, this volume analyzes the'China syndrome'and explores the effects of slower trend growth in China on the rest of the world. India, with its different—almost supply-side—approach to macropolicy is alsostudied in detail. The third edition contains several brand-new cases and media articles that are carefully positioned to relate explicitly to theory, and to look ahead to and preempt global macro situations and polices in the years to come. MBA students and Executive MBA students who appreciate the importance of monetary and fiscal analysis will find this text to be right on target. Financial analysts and individual investors who need to strip away economic myths and jargon and systematically examine and understand the effects of macro policies on variables such as inflation, output, employment and interest rates, will also find the book extremely useful.​

The paper introduces “system priors”, their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool to incorporate prior knowledge into an economic model. Unlike priors about individual parameters, system priors offer a simple and efficient way of formulating well-defined and economically-meaningful priors about high-level model properties. The generality of system priors are illustrated using an AR(2) process with a prior that most of its dynamics comes from business-cycle frequencies.

Bienvenue dans la collection Les Fiches de lecture d'UniversalisLa crise économique des années 1970, caractérisée notamment par la « stagflation » (situation durable de fort chômage et d'inflation élevée) met à mal les modèles macroéconomiques keynésiens, utilisés depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Une fiche de lecture spécialement conçue pour le numérique, pour tout savoir sur Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice de Robert Lucas et Thomas SargentChaque fiche de lecture présente une œuvre clé de la littérature ou de la pensée. Cette présentation est couplée avec un article de synthèse sur l'auteur de l'œuvre.A propos de l'Encyclopaedia Universalis : Reconnue mondialement pour la qualité et la fiabilité incomparable de ses publications, Encyclopaedia Universalis met la connaissance à la portée de tous. Écrite par plus de 7 200 auteurs spécialistes et riche de près de 30 000 médias (vidéos, photos, cartes, dessins…), l'Encyclopaedia Universalis est la plus fiable collection de référence disponible en français. Elle aborde tous les domaines du savoir.

This is the second volume of the proceedings of the IEA Congress in Athens. Part 1 on macroeconomics considers aspects of unemployment, both generally in a Keynesian framework and in more detail, while Part 2 discusses international aspects of macroeconomic fluctuations and macroeconomic equilibrium associated with the development of the European Community. Part 3 on econometrics deals particularly with the use of survey data and microeconomic theory to analyse decisions important to the understanding of macroeconomic fluctuations and expectation formation.

Financial economics is a fascinating topic where ideas from economics, mathematics and, most recently, psychology are combined to understand financial markets. This book gives a concise introduction into this field and includes for the first time recent results from behavioral finance that help to understand many puzzles in traditional finance. The book is tailor made for master and PhD students and includes tests and exercises that enable the students to keep track of their progress. Parts of the book can also be used on a bachelor level. Researchers will find it particularly useful as a source for recent results in behavioral finance and decision theory.

The subject of this book is the kind of economic interaction and interdependence that has arisen among nations in the contemporary world economy, the nature and significance of the pattern of trade balances that have resulted from them, and the question of what, if anything, should be done by national governments about that pattern. The need for international coordination of economic policies is also investigated.

Since the early 1970s the Italian economy has been moving towards an irreversible real and financial crisis. Paradoxically, the conditions engendered by the currency crisis and recession may also provide the basis for a new economic policy strategy, which could lead to built a mere'economic miracle!'

'I wish Professor Rao and his collaborators every success in ensuring that future generations of students do not have to put up with logically incoherent foundations to their understanding of modern economic systems'- G.C. Harcourt, Jesus College, Cambridge There is now an increasing realisation that the popular textbook macroeconomic model of aggregate demand and supply is logically incorrect. While there is a broad agreement among the critiques on these logical flaws there has been no such agreement on how the basic textbook macromodel should be modified. The essays in this volume contain very promising alternative models which will significantly influence the way macroeconomics will be taught in the future.