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This study investigates the water supply risk of Panjiakou reservoir in the Luanhe River basin of China during 1956–2016 under environmental change. Since the monthly runoff series during 1956–2016 is a time series with change points, it is necessary to find a new stochastic streamflow series generation approach to preserve the statistical characteristics of the original series and to refine the reliability of water supply risk analysis. This paper improves a known stochastic streamflow simulation method of previous research to better reflect the characteristics of series with change points. And this paper simulates the monthly runoff series with change point of Panjiakou reservoir during 1956–2016 by three different methods, including Thomas–Fiering model, copula function stochastic simulation method, and copula function stochastic simulation method with the mixed distribution model. Among the three methods, the copula function stochastic simulation method with the mixed distribution model which is improved on the basis of copula function stochastic simulation method in this study performs best in simulating the observed monthly runoff series during 1956–2016, and the water supply risk indices including reliability (time-based and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability, drought risk index (DRI), and sustainability index (SUI) are evaluated for Panjiakou reservoir and analyzed by using the stochastic simulation results. By comparing with the previous studies, all indicators are between the corresponding results of 1956–1979 and 1980–2016 with stationary inflows; it can be seen that change point seriously affects the water supply risk of Panjiakou reservoir. These results make it easy to formulate water supply strategies and schemes in changing environment for water resources managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation is one of the important water supplies in the arid and semiarid regions of northwestern China, playing a vital role in maintaining the fragile ecosystem. In remote mountainous area, it is difficult to obtain an accurate and reliable spatialization of the precipitation amount at the regional scale due to the inaccessibility, the sparsity of observation stations, and the complexity of relationships between precipitation and topography. Furthermore, accurate precipitation is important driven data for hydrological models to assess the water balance and water resource for hydrologists. Therefore, the use of satellite remote sensing becomes an important means over mountainous area. Precipitation datasets based on station data or pure satellite data have been increasingly available in spite of several weaknesses. This paper evaluates the usefulness of three precipitation datasets including TRMM 3B43_V6, 3B43_V7, and Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation with rain gauge data over Tianshan mountainous area where precipitation data is scarce. The results suggest that precipitation measurements only provided accurate information on a small scale, while the satellite remote sensing of precipitation had obvious advantages in basin scale or large scale especially over remote mountainous area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In ecologically fragile areas with arid climate, such as the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China, sustainable social and economic development depends largely on the availability and sustainable uses of water resource. However, there is more and more serious water resource shortage and decrease of water productivity in Heihe River Basin under the influence of climate change and human activities. This paper attempts to identify the severe water scarcity under climate change and presents possible solutions for sustainable development in Heihe River Basin. Three problems that intervened land use changes, water resource, the relevant policies and institutions in Heihe River basin were identified, including (1) water scarcity along with serious contradiction between water supply and demand, (2) irrational water consumption structure along with low efficiency, and (3) deficient systems and institutions of water resource management along with unreasonable water allocation scheme. In this sense, we focused on reviewing the state of knowledge, institutions, and successful practices to cope with water scarcity at a regional extent. Possible solutions for dealing with water scarcity are explored and presented from three perspectives: (1) scientific researches needed by scientists, (2) management and institution formulation needed by governments, and (3) water resource optimal allocation by the manager at all administrative levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]