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The prioritized purpose of this dissertation is to put forward a scientific and plausible interval of carbon price benchmark on the unified carbon trading market, of which will be scheduled to be established in the year of 2016. A model named EMD–GARCH that integrated Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic (GARCH) together is presented here in order to forecast the carbon price of the five pilots (Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, and Tianjin) in 2016 so as to provide exogenous data for later analysis. For further study, a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model will be structured to explore the impacts on China’s macroeconomics, environmental quality, and energy demand respectively under 8 different simulation scenarios, which are being designed in terms of the aforementioned calculated carbon price outcome. The simulation results illustrate that the unified carbon price policy will exert a comprehensive effect on China in various perspectives that we discussed in this paper. Moreover, regarding the carbon price scenarios, the price level by itself generates a different degree of impacts in improving the environmental quality, decreasing the energy demand, and increasing the macroeconomic growth. Consequently, based on the analysis of those three approaches mix in this study, we suggest the alternative interval of carbon price benchmark in the national unified carbon trading market with a lower bound of 30 yuan/tCO 2 to an upper bound of 50 yuan/tCO 2 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• It evaluates the effect of China's ETS on non-fossil energy development. • It analyzes ETS's effects from energy type, pilot, and pilot-energy type aspects. • The ETS has the most significant promoting effect on hydropower and photovoltaics. • Carbon price plays a positive role in moderating the effect of China's ETS. Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) can internalize the environmental costs of fossil energy consumption and encourage enterprises to consume non-fossil energy, which is crucial for People's Republic of China (PRC) to achieve the contribution target of the Paris Agreement cost-effectively. However, whether the ETS in PRC can promote non-fossil energy development remains to be answered. This paper uses a difference-in-differences model to evaluate the effect of the ETS on non-fossil energy development in PRC. Using provincial monthly panel data from January 2004 to December 2019, we find that (1) the ETS has significantly promoted non-fossil energy development in PRC, increasing the monthly average share of non-fossil energy power generation in total power generation by 2.326 percentage points, which has been verified by a series of robustness tests. (2) The effect of the ETS on non-fossil energy development is heterogeneous by energy type, pilot region, and pilot-energy type. The ETS has significantly increased the share of hydropower and photovoltaic power generation, and has significantly promoted non-fossil energy development in Guangdong; meanwhile, the ETS has significantly increased the share of hydropower and nuclear power in Guangdong, and the share of wind power and photovoltaic power in Hubei. (3) The higher the carbon price, the greater the role of the ETS in promoting non fossil energy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A modified dynamic recursive CGE model is constructed. • Renewable energy growth is considerable only if ETS revenue is used. • Broader renewable energy subsidies are better than ones with narrow scope. • A small part of ETS revenue should be used to subsidize residents for social stability. Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and renewable energy generation are emission reduction methods in most countries in the world. However, few studies have focused on the impact of ETS on renewable energy. The question is, can carbon trading promote renewable energy generation? This paper first analyzes different distribution strategies of ETS revenue by applying dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model with multi-sectors. Practical scenarios and better options of distribution of ETS revenue by a comprehensive evaluation based on entropy weight method are proposed. The results show that ETS with no subsidy to renewable will reduce the demand for energy, increase the cost of renewable energy sources and decrease the generation. ETS will be the spring of renewable energy generation when most of the revenue is used for all kinds of renewable energy sources, instead of some of them. The growth of renewable energy generation is also substantial. It is necessary that a small portion of ETS revenue should be used to subsidize residents to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor. If this income is used for government investment and consumption, it will also help to mitigate economic losses, which is caused by the direction of investment by the Chinese government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The potential gains and carbon emissions reduction of carbon trading are detected. • Three scenarios of carbon trading schemes are considered and compared. • Sectoral trading may create potential gains of 268.02 trillion yuan in 2006–2015. • Carbon emissions may decrease by 17.17 billion tonnes under sectoral trading scheme. • Sectoral trading decreases industrial carbon intensity by 19.80% during 2015–2020. Carbon trading is an important market tool in driving growth and carbon dioxide emissions reduction in industrial sectors in China. This paper attempts to assess the impacts of carbon trading on economic output and carbon dioxide emissions reduction in China's industrial sectors by employing the data envelopment analysis (DEA) based optimization models, based on three carbon trading schemes, i.e., no trading (NT), sectoral trading (ST), and sectoral-and-temporal trading (STT) during 2006–2015. Comparing with the no-trading scheme, the results indicate that, (1) the ST and STT schemes may create potential gains of 268.02 and 612.26 trillion yuan in the whole industrial during the study period, i.e., the industrial value-added would be increased by 55.17% and 73.76%, respectively; (2) the ST and STT schemes could reduce 17.17 and 19.22 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, respectively, accounting for 58.30% and 65.25% of emissions reduction in the whole industry; and (3) if carbon trading were adopted in China since 2006, its carbon intensity of industrial sectors would decrease by 34.89%, 47.44% and 19.80% under the ST scheme, and 58.93%, 31.50% and 10.25% under the STT scheme during the11th, 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan periods, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]