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The traps of the tripad of the Brazilian macroeconomic policy. This paper analyses the so-called tripod of the Brazilian macroeconomic policy, which since 1999 has been combining an inflation target regime, a floating exchange rate regime and targets for primary fiscal surplus. I argue that, unless its modus operandi is changed, the tripod will not be able to free the Brazilian economy from another "possible trinity": high real interest rates, real exchange rate appreciation and very low economic growth. After briefly analysing the theoretical base under the macroeconomic tripod, I will show why this macroeconomic policy regime, if it is evaluated in a medium or long-term perspective, has not been able to assure neither price stability nor economic growth. In addition to the suggestion of breaking with the Brazilian strategy of growing with foreign savings, the paper also suggests three main ways of changing the modus operandi of the Brazilian tripod: i) increase the time horizon for reaching the inflation target, as has been the experience of most countries that adopt this monetary policy regime; ii) restore the countercyclical role of the Brazilian fiscal policy; and iii) adopt a mix of instruments aiming at preventing the Brazilian currency from entering into a new cyclical trend of appreciation in real terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to advance the debate on Multi-sectoral Thirlwall's Law, including sectorial capital flows and its implications for the new Brazilian economy's growth strategy, which aims to stimulate exports through diversification of products, the aggregation value and increased technology intensity of Brazilian exports. To this end, it develops a multi-sectoral model with sectorial capital flows and, as a result, are carried out some computer simulations considering the main sectors and economic partners of the country (China, United States and the Euro Block). The results suggest that the best strategy is to encourage specific sectors, that is, increase the participation of the sectors that the country has comparative advantage in relation to each of its trading partners (Manufactured - US , Semi-manufatured - Europe, Primary - China). Despite the results obtained in the simulation, the model templates proposed by Hausmann et al. (2004), can generate the acceleration of economic growth. Thus, the National Plan for Exports (2015-2018) should give preference to the expansion of incentives to sectors that have high ratios of elasticity in the sense of Thirlwall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether there is a restriction imposed by the balance of payments - through the relationship between income elasticities of imports and exports - on the economic growth of Brazilian states. In other words, it checks the validity of Thirlwall's Law to the Brazilian states in the period from 1991 to 2009. These elasticities were estimated using the dynamic panel estimator System-GMM, which circumvents the classical endogeneity problem inherent to dynamic panels. The results point out to the validity of the law, since the income elasticity of imports was higher than the income elasticity of exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is there compatibility between Nelson's 'Social Technology' and Hodgson's 'Veblenian Causality'? This paper aims to discuss the role and the relationship among the concept of institutions and the economic growth process, through the Neo- Schumpeterian and Institutionalist approaches. Both of them constitute a new research agenda differentiated and opposite to the mainstream. In the first part of the paper we discuss the research agenda proposed by Richard Nelson who emphasizes the necessity to unpack the institution concept throughout the social technology notion. In the second part we discuss Geoffrey Hodgson's contribution that suggests inserting this process in an evolutionary perspective, which has in habits, norms and social behavior his major characteristic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real exchange rate and economic growth: a comparison between emerging and developed economies. This paper presents a discussion on the relationship between economic growth and real exchange rate. The article presents the results generated by a dynamic panel that tested the relationship of economic growth with the level of the exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and the choice of exchange rate regime from 26 countries, 13 emerging and 13 developed. The results suggest that the level of the exchange rate and volatility are relevant for growth. Finally, the paper stresses that there are important differences when comparing developed and emerging economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at exploring some hypothesis to explain why real interest rate and bank spread are so high. We argue that the interest rate problem and bank spread problem are connected. More precisely, one important cause of bank spread is the high level of BCB interest rate. So, the solution of interest rate problem, so that it can converge to the levels observed in other countries, will help to reduce bank spread, and doing so contributing to the reduction of the capital cost of the Brazilian economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implicit reciprocity and growth in the international economy: a structuralist perspective. This paper discusses some of the structuralist ideas about international coordination and growth in an international system formed by countries whose productive structures and technological capabilities are strongly asymmetric. These ideas are formalized taking as a point of departure the Keynesian Balance-of-Payments constrained growth model with two countries. To this model is added a function (based on the catching up literature) in which the income elasticity of the demand for exports and imports depends on the technology gap. The model allows for discussing the inter-relations between the fiscal and the industrial and technological policies. It also allows for finding the rate of growth of autonomous expenditure in the periphery which ensures that it will use all the foreign exchange it earns in promoting economic growth (the principle of "automatic reciprocity"). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growth and industrialization in Brazil. In this paper, based on the writings of Kaldor and his followers, we compare two phases of Brazilian economic growth, one showing fast growth rate and other with lack of growth. Our aim is to analyze the Brazilian economic behavior in the last 40 years, pointing out economic policy intervention, structural change, foreign trade and capital flows as determinants to account for gross product development path performance. Our aim is to shed some light on which is the potential rate of growth of the Brazilian economy nowadays, considering its historical growth path and recent structural changes in the industrial sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic growth and foreign liquidity in Brazil after 1970. This paper assesses the relationship between the capital account and the Brazilian economic growth according to balance-of-payments constraint approach. The Thirlwall (1979)'s simple rule is extended to take into consideration capital account and several empirical evidence using time series analysis are shown. Conversely to the simple rule when fitted rates of balance-of-payment equilibrium economic growth average bellow the observed ones, fitted rates of growth using the rule extended to international liquidity are consistently greater than the observed ones. It is fair to conclude that, first, the Brazilian economy grows better during abundant international liquidity and, second, the economy sub utilizes such advantage growing far less than it could grow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China: stability and economic growth. China experienced an extraordinary economic growth since 1978, while keeping inflation low. Which are the main determinants for this performance and to what point has macroeconomic policy been responsible? Obviously, many factors have been important although none of them may be appointed as the sole determinant. The paper also argues whether China would be able to keep this pace of growth or will slow down, like many other Asian countries. It is argued that China will maintain her average rate of growth in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Educational policies and economic growth: theory and dynamic panel data estimates. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that considers a non-linear relationship between growth and level of education (human capital). Our econometric estimates demonstrated the causality running from human capital to GDP per capita with U inverted shape. The level of education (human capital) that generates the maximum growth rate lies around 4.5 years. The foremost implication of this result is that States with level of education below this range should have as priority educational policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capital account liberalization and economic growth: evidences from data in Latin-American panel. The aim of this paper is to carry out an empirical analysis about the relation between Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Growth having as object of study the experience of 16 countries of Latin America with annual data for the period 1986-2000. The econometrical calculations do not corroborate the hypothesis that the liberalization of Capital Account would stimulate the economic growth. The results suggest an adverse effect of the liberalization of the Capital Account on the real growth gross domestic product per capita of the countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis of the national development strategy of Malaysia. This paper aims at studying Malaysia's national development strategy in the last three decades. Firstly, we will give emphasis to the country's economic planning development, its mediumterm and long-term plans, as well as Mahathir's political influence. Secondly, we will try to identify key elements in the Malaysian growth process, such as its exchange rate and current account policies, the participation of the government in the whole process and matters related to domestic savings and foreign direct investment. We will also talk about the 1997 financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]