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[Display omitted] • NDVI shows an overall increasing trend from 2000 to 2020. • The Hexi region shows a warming and wetting trend. • Extreme precipitation is more important for NDVI. • The lag effect of NDVI on climate extremes varies by indicators and spaces. Climate extremes significantly affects vegetation dynamics, and understanding the relationship between dryland vegetation and climate extremes is crucial for regional ecological security and disaster warning. According to meteorological and satellite remote sensing data, the paper analyses the dynamics of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate extremes in the Hexi region from 2000 to 2020 using Theil-Sen Median, Mann-Kendall and linear regression methods; the relationship between climate extremes and vegetation dynamics is revealed using Pearson correlation and boosted regression trees (BRT) models. On this basis, the time-lag effect of NDVI in response to climate extremes was further investigated. The results show that the NDVI in the Hexi region increased from 2000 to 2020, with significant greening (67.72 %) and a small amount of degradation concentrated in the desert in the northwest and the oasis in the southeast. The correlation between climate extremes indicators and NDVI shows a large spatial heterogeneity, with extreme precipitation showing a high importance for all regions except oasis. NDVI has no lag or 1 month lag for extreme temperature, no lag for max 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) for areas other than mountainous areas, and a 3-month lag for max 5-day precipitation amount (Rx5day) for extensive areas. The results of this study could serve as a reference for the study of the relationship between vegetation dynamics and climate extremes in arid and semi-arid regions, and provide a theoretical basis for the establishment of scientific and reasonable strategies for regional vegetation restoration and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A proxy based on mass movements for assessing climate change was proposed. • The periodicity of mass movements conforms to the changing patterns of traditional climate proxies. • Climate change determines the spatial and temporal distribution of mass movements. The spatial and temporal distribution, as well as the formation and evolution of mass movements in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau orogenic belt, have been extensively discussed. We gathered research papers focusing on the ages of Quaternary residual deposits associated with mass movements in the surrounding orogenic belts of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A total of 172 large-scale typical deposits and their ages were analyzed to explore the primary driving mechanisms behind mass movements in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As these deposits were collected from diverse geological environments and the ages primarily concentrated in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene periods, we categorized mass movements with ages younger than 140 ka into three distinct regional climate systems: the Indian Summer Monsoon, the East Asian Summer Monsoon, and the Westerlies. The relationship between the emergence of mass movements and climate change was thoroughly investigated. Our research indicates that mass movements can serve as a reliable proxy for indicating climate change. The cycles of mass movements are closely synchronized with the warm and cold alternations of regional climates, holding significant importance in reshaping the environmental evolutionary history. We propose that the extensive mass movements in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are primarily driven by periodic climate variations, although they may not exhibit a perfect one-to-one correspondence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The natural variability of directly observed soil thermal conductivity was low. • Soil moisture can explain at least 50 % of soil thermal conductivity variability. • The effect of soil thermal conductivity on active layer thickness was insignificant. • Active layer thickness negatively correlates with soil moisture. The knowledge of soil thermal properties is important for determining how a soil will behave under changing climate conditions, especially in the sensitive environment of permafrost affected soils. This paper represents the first complex study of the interplay between the different parameters affecting soil thermal conductivity of soils in Antarctica. Antarctic Peninsula is currently the most rapidly warming region of the whole Antarctica, with predictions of this warming to continue in the upcoming decades. This study focuses on James Ross Island, where the Abernethy Flats automatic weather station is located in a lowland area with semi-arid climate. Air and ground temperature, soil heat flux and soil moisture during the thawing season were monitored on this site from 2015 to 2023. Moreover, two approaches to determining soil thermal conductivity were compared – laboratory measurements and calculation from field data. During this period, mean annual temperatures have increased dramatically for both air (from −6.9 °C in 2015/2016 to −3.8 °C in 2022/2023) and ground (from −6.5 °C to −3.2 °C), same as active layer thickness (from 68 cm to 95 cm). Average soil thermal conductivity for the thawing period reached values between 0.49 and 0.74 W/m.K−1 based on field data. Statistically significant relationships were found between the seasonal means of volumetric water content and several other parameters – soil thermal conductivity (r = 0.91), thawing degree days (r = −0.87) and active layer thickness (r = −0.88). Although wetter soils generally have a higher conductivity, the increase in temperature exhibits a much stronger control over the active layer thickening, also contributing to the overall drying of the upper part of the soil profile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Role of periglacial regions in mercury (Hg) cycling in the Antarctic coastal zone. • Spatial variability of Hg and MeHg concentrations in soil of ice-free areas. • Study confirms link between weathering of rocks and the Hg concentration in soil. • Presence of animals, e.g. penguins and seals, impacts the concentration of Hg in soil. • OM is a key factor affecting Hg distribution across Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems. The Antarctic plays a critical role in global mercury cycling as both a sink of Hg and, in response to rapid global warming, an emerging source of Hg through its release from thawing permafrost and recessing glaciers. At the present time, Antarctica and surrounding areas have little mercury contamination in comparison to other regions of the world. Understanding the sources and transformations of Hg in the Antarctic will be particularly important in predicting the role of a changing environment in the mercury cycle as emissions and global climate change. Study samples were collected at 12 stations, categorized into three groups based on the human or animal presence and flora. Sampling took place in December 2018 and January 2019, and soil and parent rock samples were collected and analyzed for total mercury concentration and its fractions using atomic absorption spectroscopy. Bedrock samples collected on the coast of Admiralty Bay were found to have low organic matter content, while soil samples from the west shore of the bay had a high variability of organic matter content, ranging from 3 % to 41 %. The concentration of total mercury in bedrock ranged from 2.1 ng/g to 15.0 ng/g, and in soil samples, the total mercury concentration ranged from 4.7 ng/g to 143.1 ng/g. This paper reviews current knowledge of Hg cycling in the Antarctic, including its sources, fate, and effects on the ecosystem. The implications of climate change for Hg cycling in the region are also discussed, highlighting the need for continued research to better understand the potential impacts of Hg contamination in the Antarctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Droughts and floods are increasing worldwide. • Changes in soil moisture affect the soil microbiome. • Climate change affects the soil environment. • Changes in the soil environment affect crop production. • Drought and floods have a negative impact on agriculture. Climate change is progressing and is already visible to the naked eye around the world. Hydrological events associated with climate change, i.e. floods and droughts, have reached extreme levels in recent years. Researchers warn that these phenomena will continue to intensify. According to recent reports, the number of extreme weather events, including hydrological phenomena, has increased by 60% in Europe over the last three decades. Both water shortages and water surpluses affect the soil environment and its functions. This in turn has a direct impact on crops and agriculture. For example, in the US alone, droughts and floods were responsible for more than 70% of the decline in cereal yields in 2011 alone. However, the soil environment is a complex ecosystem that is not yet fully understood, making it difficult to predict the impact of climate change on its quality and functioning. In this paper, we discuss the effects of floods and droughts on the soil microbiome and the implications of these changes for agriculture. We suggest that changes in soil moisture are an important factor affecting crop growth and yield, which is of great importance for global food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Rapid geomorphological evolution occurred in the erodible lithology and semiarid climate of southern Italy. • A deposition phase during the Little Ice Age (LIA) was the last global cold climatic phase. • Badland incision occurred during Mediaeval Warm Period and continued in stably alternating phases until 1700 CE. • Valley aggradation ended early in 1850 as a phase of historic arroyo cutting began. • Geomorphological evolution around Basilicata during the LIA was very rapid and controlled by extreme surface process sensitivity to climate change. There is a general consensus that the increased frequency of extreme climatic events will quickly change the morphology of the landscapes in the Mediterranean area. Knowing and understanding the expected changes becomes crucial for defining future adaptive strategies. This paper deals with the very rapid geomorphological evolution in an emblematic Mediterranean area, the Basilicata region of southern Italy, during the last 300 years. The results show that the landscape evolution was mainly controlled by the extreme sensitivity of surface processes to climate change. Landslides, a new cycle of the formation of badland landforms such as calanchi and biancane, and an aggradation/incision phase in the main river valleys have completely reshaped the landscape of the Bradanic Trough, whereas fresh eroded material was moved to the coast. New data on valley-fill alluvium in the Basento River and one of its main left tributaries, the Vella stream, show ages ranging from 1700 to 1850. This deposition phase coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch of global climate variability. Previous literature showed that the alluvium of this age consists of a mappable stratigraphic unit outcropping in all the large alluvial valleys of the Basilicata and Mediterranean regions. Palaeoclimate and high-resolution palaeoflood data indicate that valley-fill alluviation occurred during a long humid period. Valley aggradation ended in approximately 1850 with the beginning of a new phase of historic arroyo cutting, mainly due to high magnitude-low frequency rainy events within prolonged drought periods. The stream incision drew the terminal dissection of the clayey slopes into biancana rounded morphologies. These data seem to be confirmed by the comparable heights of about 3 m, both of the biancane and of the fluvial terraces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oasification is a complex oasis expansion and ecological processes caused by climate changes and human activities under available water supply in arid and semiarid regions. The process can effectively improve soil productivity, vegetation cover, and biomass production in fighting against land degradation, such as desertification and soil erosion. However, the significance of oasification has not yet reached the general cognition compared to desertification, which is regarded as one of the most severe global eco-environmental issues. This paper identifies desertification and oasification processes and their perspectives in cognition. The implication of oasification in combating desertification and controlling land degradation is emphasized by the justification between desertification and oasification processes. As opposite process of desertification, the oasification is an unable evasive process that can provide positive environmental effects in the control of desertification, ecological restoration, and land rehabilitation. According to the interaction of climatic variations and human activities, the oasification processes is classified into six main forms: natural oasis evolution process, engineering forest construction, conversion of natural landforms into farmlands, urban encroachment, constructed environments, and coupled ecosystems. These processes gradually modify the productive capacity of soils, increase vegetation cover for restoring degraded lands, and improve the living environment for human settlement and sustainability of an oasis ecosystem. Moreover, an overview of oasification research is detailed, and Northwest China as an example is used to illustrate the progress of the oasification research in recent decades. Currently, the oasification process and its mechanistic research still remain less concern in the arid and semiarid regions. A new science framework of the oasification research is proposed to effectively deal with ecological and environmental issues in the arid and semiarid regions. • Desertification and oasification and their perspectives are identified. • Implication of oasification is emphasized in comparison with desertification. • Oasification processes are classified into six main forms. • Overview of oasification research is detailed and illustrated in Northwest China. • A new science framework of the oasification research is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Land use and land cover classes homogenize within-class differences in vegetation density, type and other characteristics that influence surface erosion. • When these classes are used to estimate current and projected future RUSLE C-factor for native vegetation, this introduces significant error. • Remote sensing methods can be used to assess intra-class variation in C-factor, improving the soil loss estimate. • A strong, predictive relationship exists between remotely-sensed C-factor values and climate. • Current and projected changes in climate can be used to directly estimate C-factor, improving the estimate of current and future soil loss rates. This new method provides a low-cost, efficient and reliable estimate of future C. Understanding how reservoir sedimentation rates may evolve due to climate change is essential for projecting future changes in reservoir water storage capacity. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) is commonly used to assess regional soil loss rates because of its suitability for working with the coarse temporal and spatial scale of climate model outputs. Application of the RUSLE for projecting future erosion rates is constrained by the relatively limited number of classes used in projected changes of native vegetation: this typically reduces a wide range of variation in RUSLE cover (C) factors to a single value per class, and these classes may be insensitive to changes in species composition and canopy density with time and space. This paper develops a low-cost, efficient, and objective approach to projecting future C values directly based on widely available Landsat data, downscaled climate model data, and a limited number of terrain variables. Observed C is estimated from Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Modified Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) values using standard methods. A linear relationship is established between the observed C values and average annual antecedent temperature, average annual antecedent precipitation, latitude, and percent sand (adjusted R2 = 0.75604, 0.7543, and RMSE = 0.09448, 0.07043, respectively). A proof of principal study demonstrates that, unlike when land cover classes are used to estimates C, a RUSLE model driven by the regression-based C provides a correct order-of-magnitude estimate of observed long-term erosion and sediment yield rates (e.g., an estimate of 2.9–3.2 t ha−1 y-1 is obtained where observed rates range from 1.2 to 3.9 t ha−1 y-1 for the same time period, and up to 8 t ha−1 y-1 historically, while standard formulations of RUSLE yield 16.1 and 0.3 t ha−1 y-1). Using climate model data to estimate both precipitation intensity (R factor) and C in the RUSLE model results in basin wide projected end 21st century soil erosion rates for relative concentration pathway 8.5 of 5.5–7.5 t ha−1 y-1, consistent with expectations for accelerated soil loss in the study area as climate change reduces soil moisture while increasing precipitation intensity. The same model driven by land cover class estimates of C produces soil loss rates an order of magnitude smaller (0.3–0.4 t ha−1 y-1), consistent with a much more heavily vegetated landscape than could be supported under the increasingly arid projected climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides are natural phenomena that can cause great loss of life and damage to property. A landslide susceptibility map is a useful tool to help with land management in landslide-prone areas. A support vector machine (SVM) is a machine learning algorithm that uses a small number of samples for prediction and has been widely used in recent years. This paper presents a review of landslide susceptibility mapping using SVM. It presents the basic concept of SVM and its application in landslide susceptibility assessment and mapping. Then it compares the SVM method with four other methods (analytic hierarchy process, logistic regression, artificial neural networks and random forests) used in landslide susceptibility mapping. The application of SVM in landslide susceptibility assessment and mapping is discussed and suggestions for future research are presented. Compared with some of the methods commonly used in landslide susceptibility assessment and mapping, SVM has its strengths and weaknesses owing to its unique theoretical basis. The combination of SVM and other techniques may yield better performance in landslide susceptibility assessment and mapping. A high-quality informative database is essential and classification of landslide types prior to landslide susceptibility assessment is important to help improve model performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the storage potential of soils within a heterogeneous structured hummocky young moraine region for organic carbon is discussed with respect to climate change and erosion. Erosion is discussed to be either a global terrestrial CO 2 sink or a source. In hummocky young moraine regions of North East Germany water and tillage erosion are steadily changing factors since the beginning of arable landuse in ancient times. For such topographically complex landscapes the knowledge on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and the limits of carbon storage are still limited. Our objective is to combine data collected during former soil erosion studies with recent findings on (i) soil property and (ii) estimated “optimal” SOC data to predict the SOC storage related to tillage and crop rotation, among others. Classified catenae were analysed for texture, SOC, CO 3 -C, nutrient contents, and depth of weathering. Optimal SOC contents were estimated on the fine sized particle content. Arable soil at convex slope positions of steep catenae show 4 time smaller SOC stocks as compared to respective forest soils and to arable soils at concave position. Our findings suggest changes in SOC stocks to be almost exclusively related to decomposable carbon pools. Comparison of estimated optimal with measured SOC contents in soils at such positions indicated that such soils could potentially store a surplus of 0.6 to 0.8 g kg − 1 . SOC protection at convex positions is limited by soil texture, and frequent truncation of the respective soil profiles. Whereas truncation followed by downhill transfer may bury SOC at sedimentation/concave positions resulting in long-term SOC storage as far as decomposition is prevented by site conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports from a survey of the occurrence of large avalanches in Żleb Żandarmerii. This couloir is known to be one of the most hazardous avalanche paths in the Tatra Mountains and has one of the longest histories of avalanche observation. This survey looked at the runout distance, return period, dynamics and geoecological implications of avalanches in the context of current climate change. The study took advantage of the longest record of meteorological data available in the Tatra Mountains, as well as archival avalanche observations, topographical maps, orthophotomaps and a high-resolution digital terrain model. Avalanche data were obtained using geomorphological and dendrogeomorphic methods and through modelling with the RAMMS numerical avalanche dynamics simulation software. The largest avalanches reach the foot of its counter slope. Their length, release volume, flow velocity and pressure can exceed respectively 1000 m, 80 000 m 3 , 45 m/s and 600 kPa. The results of our study suggest that current climate warming has been accompanied by thinning and shortening of the duration of snow cover, as well as by an upward expansion of the timberline (including in the large-avalanche runout zones) of up to 80 m since the mid-1920s. No distinct temporal trend was identified in the large avalanche return period since 1909, but their mass and intensity have declined. Forests and timberline expansion were found to have no influence on the extent of the avalanches in our study, while ground relief could determine both their downward extent and lateral expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge on active-layer dynamics and permafrost distribution is of especial importance in Maritime Antarctica, where dramatic climate warming occurred in the last decades. Few long-term studies of active-layer temperatures in this region, and no one focus on recently deglaciated areas under paraglacial conditions. This paper analyses the long-term soil thermal regime of a warm-based glacial front site located at Low Head, King George Island. The monitoring system consists of soil temperature probes connected to a datalogger that recorded data at hourly intervals. We calculated the thawing days (TD), freezing days (FD), number of isothermal days (ID), number of freeze-thaw days (FTD), thawing degree days (TDD), freezing degree days (FDD), and the apparent thermal diffusivity (ATD). The results indicate that active layer thermal regime at Low Head is similar to other periglacial environments from Maritime Antarctica, with differences associated with the influence from the nearby warm-based glacier. Surface temperatures show greater variations during the summer resulting in frequent freeze and thaw cycles, mainly (1 cm and 10 cm). The temperature profile during the studied period indicates that the active layer thickness reached a maximum of 106 cm on February 7th 2015. Soil temperature buffering was limited by the low snow cover, low soil moisture, and absence of vegetation. Based on the high interannual variability detected during the five years monitoring run, we stress that longer monitoring periods are necessary for a more detailed knowledge on how permafrost respond to climate changes in this rapidly warming zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous environmental archaeology studies have been undertaken in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, but limited research has been carried out in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River (UYR). During the period of the Baodun Culture (approximately 4500–3700 cal. yr BP), the inhabitants of the Chengdu Plain (CDP) in the UYR of southwestern China were confronted with a dynamic climate. Archaeological sites, including 9 walled sites located in a relatively small region, were built during the migration process. This paper attempts to demonstrate the linkage between the evolutionary history of the Baodun Culture and paleoclimate change. Subsistence strategies during the Baodun period, such as farming, tool use and food resources were investigated. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal distribution of the archaeological sites, the construction method of the sites' walls, and the growth of weeds were examined and assessed based on archaeological excavations and the literature. The ancient water network at the Baodun site was investigated based on auger surveys and borehole data. By comparing multiple paleoclimatic proxies from regions mainly controlled by the Indian Monsoon, we found that: (1) the drying and cooling climate conditions were responsible for the increases of proportions of millet and supplementary food resources and for the transformation of tool assemblages during the late Baodun period; (2) the increasing numbers of flood events were caused by the weakening of the monsoon and the dramatic climate during the Baodun period, and the interconnected river networks at low elevations in the CDP exacerbated the impact of flooding, which may have partially caused the frequent human migration and the construction method of the site walls; (3) the Baodun people that originally lived in the southwestern and western CDP were forced to gradually migrate to higher elevations in the northern and central territories because of the rapid climate change; and (4) the topography and river-grade also influenced human migration and settlement selection. Climate deterioration hindered the sustainable development of the Baodun Culture and eventually caused it to decline. Common subsistence strategies in human history, such as site location, migration, flood-control methods, agricultural changes, and food diversification, played important roles in the Baodun people's adaptation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional Mediterranean vineyards from the Montes de Málaga (Axarquía region, Spain) are characterized by high average temperatures, extreme rainfall events during autumn and winter, elevated stoniness and steep slopes (20–50°). Traditionally, several problems of high soil loss, rill and ephemeral gully generation, and elevated runoff are observed by farmers, which are increasing land degradation processes and a decrease of the productivity. According to this, the main aims of this paper were: i) to quantify the initial soil loss, surface flow and infiltration processes; ii) to characterize and describe the hydrological and geomorphological dynamics; iii) to detect the key factors, which control the soil erosion processes. For this purpose, a combined methodology was applied, using soil analysis, a small portable rainfall simulator and a Guelph permeameter on one experimental plot cultivated with vineyards with steep slopes. Results showed a high variability of soil erosion and permeability processes. Soil analysis showed an elevated concentration of silt particles and stoniness, with higher contents of sand particles between 0 and 5 cm, and clays from 5 cm. With a Guelph permeameter, high average of permeability and saturated hydraulic conductivity with elevated standard deviation were observed. Furthermore, an increase of these parameters from the upper to the foot slope was registered. By using rainfall simulations, on the upper and the foot slope positions the highest runoff coefficient and soil loss were registered. The most elevated peak of sediment concentration was obtained on the middle slope. In general, high infiltration coefficients between 66.5 and 100% were observed. In conclusion it was observed that the activation of the soil erosion processes was due to the distribution of the surface soil components (high roughness, several cracks and high stoniness and silt content), the steep slopes and the impact of the soil traditional tillage practices. These Mediterranean hillslope vineyards registered a mixed Hortonian-Hewlettian model, which combines surface and sub-surface flow conditioned by the micro-topographical changes and its saturation degree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drylands are important ecosystems that are facing severe challenges under a changing climate. The relationships between soil moisture and vegetation have garnered international interest because of their significant impact on ecosystem restoration in semi-arid and arid regions. Grasslands are among the largest ecosystems in the world and are very important to dryland ecosystems. The Loess Plateau in China is an important example of drylands, and grasslands occupy more than 1/3 of its area. Water is the primary limiting factor of vegetation restoration, so understanding the relationship between grasslands and soil moisture on the Loess Plateau is imperative. The processes of precipitation, soil surface infiltration and evaporation, root water uptake and leaf transpiration are important for the relationship between grasslands and soil moisture. This paper found the following research topics that were related to the Loess Plateau based on 283 references of local studies from CNKI, ScienceDirect and Springer: (1) the effects of grasslands on soil moisture, including the influence of precipitation, geography, grassland type, grass age and growth stage on soil moisture and soil moisture determination methods; (2) the influence of soil moisture on grasslands, including the influence of soil moisture stress on grass growth and the methods for determining the physiological and ecological characteristics of grass; and (3) models of the relationships between grasslands and soil moisture. International references were used to explain certain processes and were compared with studies on Loess Plateau. Existing studies on the Loess Plateau paid more attention to these phenomena compared to water transport processes. Additional process-based studies with greater accuracy, longer time series, and larger spatial scales are needed to achieve ecosystem sustainability on the Loess Plateau. This summary of studies on the Loess Plateau may provide examples for research on arid and semi-arid areas in other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to assess the impacts of projected climate change on a Mediterranean catchment, and to analyze the effects of a suite of representative land use practices as an adaptation tool to reduce climate change-driven erosion and hydrologic extremes. Relevant climatic variables from the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were downscaled for the study area, and perturbed with the anomalies of 23 global circulation models for three emission scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). Both a projected daily rainfall time series for the period 2010–2100, and a single precipitation event with a one-hundred year return period were used to assess the impact of climate change. The downscaled data were fed into a distributed hydro-sedimentary model (TETIS) with five land use configurations representative of future demographic tendencies, geographical characteristics and land management policies (e.g. European Union CAP). The projected changes showed a general decrease in runoff and sediment production by the end of the century regardless of land use configuration. Sediment production showed a positive relationship with an increase in agricultural land and a decrease in natural land under present day agricultural management. According to our simulations, some conservation practices in agriculture can effectively reduce net erosion while maintaining agricultural production. As such, they can play a critical role as an adaptation tool to reduce climate change impacts in the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives Under the background of global climate change, variations in streamflow and sediment discharge in the Yellow River would continue with intensified human activities and changes in the ecological environment. To harness the Yellow River, analyzing the degrees of change and the reasons for the streamflow and sediment discharge, as well as predicting the future trends, are urgently needed. Methods In this paper, the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test, Sen's estimator of slope, Pettitt's test and wavelet transform were applied to detect the trends, the magnitude of the trends and the abrupt changes and periodic variation in streamflow and suspended sediment discharge at eight hydrological stations from 1950 to 2013 along the mainstream of the Yellow River. Results Over the past 64 years (1950–2013), the spatial distribution of the annual average streamflow was of the “M” type, and the annual average suspended sediment discharge had a parabolic curve shape along the mainstream of the Yellow River. The temporal variation showed a distinct decreasing trend in streamflow since the 1990s and in suspended sediment discharge since the 1980s. Many cycles of oscillations occurred in the streamflow and suspended sediment discharge variation, leading to an alternate change in the wet/dry periods and the high/low sediment discharge periods. Conclusions In various regions of the Yellow River Basin since the 1970s, climate changes contributed reductions of 17.0–45.0% and 12.2–50.3% for streamflow and suspended sediment discharge, respectively, whereas human activities contributed reductions of 55.0–83.0% and 49.7–87.8%. Therefore, human activities were the major causes of the significant decline in the streamflow and the suspended sediment discharge of the Yellow River over the past six decades. Reasonable and possible measures should be taken to achieve water resources optimization and configuration and to promote watershed management and sustainability in the regions of the Yellow River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean fluvial hydrology is characterised by decadal-to-multi-centennial length wet and dry episodes with abrupt transitions related to changes in atmospheric circulation. Since the mid-1990s site-based flood chronologies from slackwater deposits in bedrock rivers and regionally aggregated flood histories from alluvial deposits have developed increasingly higher resolution chronological frameworks, although regional coverage is still uneven. This paper analyses the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme Holocene hydrological events recorded in fluvial stratigraphy in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal), southern France, southern Italy, Northern Africa (Morocco and Tunisia) and eastern Mediterranean (Greece, Crete, Turkey, Cyprus and Israel). This study constitutes the most comprehensive investigation of Holocene river flooding ever undertaken in the Mediterranean and is based on the analysis of 515 14 C and 53 OSL dates. It reveals that flood periods in different regions cluster into distinct time intervals, although region-wide flooding episodes can be identified at 7400–7150, 4800–4600, 4100–3700, 3300–3200, 2850–2750, 2300–2100, 1700–1600, 1500–1400, 950–800, ca. 300, 200–100 cal. BP. Periods with more frequent floods in the western Iberian region coincide with transitions to cool and wetter conditions and persistent negative NAO mode. In Northern Africa increased flood frequency coincides with periods of generally drier climate, while in the eastern Mediterranean there is a higher incidence of extreme flood events under wetter conditions. Our meta-data analysis identifies an out-of-phase pattern of extreme events across the Mediterranean over multi-centennial timescales, which is particularly evident between the western Iberian and eastern Mediterranean regions. This centennial-to-multi-centennial see-saw pattern in flooding indicates that bipolar hydroclimatic conditions existed in the Mediterranean during the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CLIGEN (CLImate GENerator) is a stochastic weather generator that produces daily estimates of precipitation and individual storm parameters, including time to peak, peak intensity and storm duration. These parameters are typically used as inputs for other models, such as the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Although CLIGEN has been proven to be effective for predicting daily estimates, some discrepancies have been observed when generating storm parameters, such as the storm duration. Therefore, a study was conducted to evaluate and improve CLIGEN for storm generation. Individual rainfall events were identified from 1-h pluviograph records that were collected from 30 sites in Central Chile. In this study, 415 years of data were used; 18,012 storms were analyzed. In addition, rainfall erosivity was computed for all storms using the prescribed method to compare the energy provided by the measured and generated rainfall events. Using measured rainfall data, a procedure was developed to improve the CLIGEN estimates by calibrating the input parameter that controls the storm durations. This procedure in turn improved the rainfall intensities and erosivities. The model was tested before and after calibration with the measured rainfall data from the 30 sites in both the wet and dry seasons. Based on a monthly rainfall analysis, the results demonstrated that the number of storms and rainfall amounts, which are not affected by the calibration process, were accurately estimated with CLIGEN. However, before the calibration, especially in the wet season, the storm durations and maximum intensities were consistently overestimated and underestimated, respectively, at most of the sites and for most months. Therefore, the annual rainfall erosivities were underestimated with CLIGEN at 19 of the 30 sites. After performing the calibration, the R 2 value for the CLIGEN-generated storm durations increased from 0.41 to 0.65. The maximum intensities also exhibited an improvement; the R 2 value increased from 0.31 to 0.60. Consequently, annual rainfall erosivities were generated with an R 2 value of 0.89; these erosivities were accurately estimated at 29 of the 30 sites. Therefore, this calibration procedure proved to be an effective alternative for generating more reliable storm patterns. This paper explains the procedure in detail and analyzes the parameters related to the individual storm generation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil organic matter (SOM) has beneficial effects on soil properties for plant growth and production. Moreover, SOM changes carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and can influence climate warming. Conventional methods for SOM determination based on laboratory analyses are costly and time consuming. Use of soil reflectance spectra is an alternative approach for SOM estimation and has the advantage of being rapid, non-destructive and cost effective. This method assumes that residuals are independent and identically distributed. However, in most cases this assumption does not hold owing to spatial dependence in soil samples. The aim of the paper was to test the potential of laboratory Vis–NIR spectroscopy to develop an approach of partial least square regression (PLSR) with correlated errors for estimating spatially varying SOM content from laboratory-based soil Vis–NIR spectra and producing a continuous map using a geostatistical method. The study area was the Turbolo watershed (Calabria, southern Italy), which is representative of Mediterranean areas being highly susceptible to soil degradation. Topsoil samples were collected at 201 locations. To reduce the lack of linearity that may exist in the spectra, reflectance (R) spectra were transformed in absorbance spectra (log (1 / R)). Partial least squared regression (PLSR) analysis was then used to predict SOM from reflectance spectra. To take into account spatial correlation between observations, the significant latent variables from PLSR were used as regressors in a linear mixed effect model with correlated errors of SOM. The spatial approach and traditional PLSR were compared through the calculation of root mean square prediction error (RMSPE). In order to produce a continuous map, the estimated SOM data were interpolated by ordinary kriging. The approach is particularly advantageous when the data exhibit a pronounced spatial autocorrelation and could be used in digital soil mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The farming-pastoral region of North China is a region that has suffered from serious desertification, and the multiple transitional characteristics in this region make it very difficult to link the progress of desertification to the driving forces behind it. This paper mainly focuses on the dynamics of desertification over the past 10 years and their relationship to climate change and human activity. According to the MODIS images in 2000 and 2010, the farming-pastoral region had experienced significant desertification dynamics over the past 10 years. The area of regions that had undergone desertification reversion and expansion were 186,240 km 2 and 199,525 km 2 respectively, and the spatial distribution of these regions showed great heterogeneity. The relationship between desertification dynamics and their driving forces was investigated by comparing the change in the NPP that was induced by climate change and human activity for each pixel that experienced desertification reversion and expansion. From 2000 to 2010, the coupling of climate change and human activity was the dominant factor behind desertification reversion. However, the human activity was the dominant factor that controlled the desertification expansion process between 2000 and 2010. The driving processes of desertification also had considerable spatial heterogeneity, and the dominant factors behind desertification reversion and expansion in each sub-region were not completely the same. So, the scale effect must be considered when explaining the results from similar studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, rainfall erosivity based on different time intervals was evaluated for the Penedès region (Northeast Spain), an area affected by high erosion processes. Characteristics of storms (duration, maximum intensity, depth and frequency) recorded in the area were analysed using a tipping-bucket series, which was used to estimate rainfall erosivity from hourly data (1997–2013), recorded at four observatories, and daily data (1960–2013) recorded at two observatories of the study area. The relationships between data obtained from different intervals were evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), the ratio of the root mean square error to standard deviation (RSR), the percent bias (PBIAS), and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Spatial and temporal variabilities were evaluated for the analysed periods, considering annual and monthly rainfall erosivities, the number of erosive events and its distribution within the year, the maximum event erosivity and the maximum precipitation event. Annual rainfall erosivity in the study area presented a high degree of variability from year to year, ranging from about 500 to over 2000 MJ ha −1 mm h −1 . However, during the last decades the number of erosive events has increased and very high values of event erosivity were observed in the analysed meteorological stations. In some cases, event erosivity was of the same order of magnitude as average annual erosivity. The changes in event erosivity were not uniform. The number of low erosive events increased at all observatories, but high erosive events only increased at one. The results confirm the need for detailed time scale data for good estimation of high erosive events. Estimations based on daily data may, however, be useful to compare average erosivity within an area. A change in rainfall erosivity within the year was observed, with an increase in spring rainfall erosivity despite a decrease in total rainfall. In autumn, the number of erosive events decreased in September, but the individual event erosivity increased reaching very high values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Warming effects increased with warming duration and magnitudes. • Warming effects on C and N concentrations remain globally invariant. • [C] and [N] responded inconsistently to warming between above- and belowground. • Warming effects on [C] and [N] are linked to soil moisture and soil pH. Global warming has significantly affected the terrestrial C and N cycling processes. Whereas, it is unclear how global warming impacts the C and N concentrations in the above- and belowground ecosystems. We performed a meta-analysis with the results presented in 136 papers and 1886 observations. The data reveals that global warming increased C concentrations in leaf, shoot, and microbial biomass and N concentrations in the shoot. The C:N ratios of microbial biomass also increased under conditions of warming. However, the soil C concentration and soil C:N ratios decreased. Furthermore, these responses are more evident with longer warming duration and elevated warming magnitudes. The warming effects on C and N concentrations and C:N ratios never changed with warming methods, ecosystem types, or background climates. Also, in response to warming, soil moisture was negatively correlated with leaf C concentration as well as C:N ratio in microbial biomass. Soil pH response to warming was in a negative correlation with those of soil C concentration, soil C:N ratio, and microbial biomass C concentration. Our analysis has identified some key ecosystem processes that can be potentially implemented into the ecosystem models for predicting how warming affects future terrestrial C and N dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Fire-induced hydrological impacts were assessed using the OpenLISEM model. • Rainfall dominated the catchment hydro-sedimentary responses before and after fire. • Fire led to a mean increase of 57% in peak discharge and up to 31% in sediment yield. • Sediment sources partly changed from croplands to burnt areas. Wildfires can have strong negative effects on soil and water resources, especially in headwater areas. The spatially explicit OpenLISEM model was applied to a burned catchment in southern Portugal to quantify the individual and combined impacts of wildfire and rainfall on hydrological and erosion processes. The companion paper has calibrated and assessed model performance in this area before and after a fire. In this study, the model was applied with design storms of six different return periods (0.2, 0.5, 1, 2, 5, and 10 years) to simulate and evaluate pre- and post-wildfire hydrological and erosion responses at the catchment scale. Our results show that rainfall amount and intensity played a more important role than fire occurrence in the catchment discharge and sediment yields. Fire occurrence was found to be an important factor for peak discharge, indicating that high post-fire hydro-sedimentary responses are frequently related to extreme rainfall events. The results also suggest a partial shift from runoff to splash erosion after fire, especially for higher return periods. This can be explained by increased splash erosion in burned upstream areas saturating the sediment transport capacity of surface runoff, limiting runoff erosion in downstream areas. Therefore, the pre-fire erosion risk in the croplands of this catchment was partly shifted to a post-fire erosion risk in upper slope forest and natural areas, especially for storms with lower return periods, although erosion risks in croplands were important both before and after fires. These findings have significant implications to identify areas for post-wildfire stabilization and rehabilitation, which is particularly important given the predicted increase in the occurrence of fires and extreme rainfall events with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Identify ancient flood events, which may be the reason for decline of the culture. • Pollen and heavy metals can be used to reflect the strength of human activities. • Pollen and heavy metals revealed the process of culture from prosperity to decline. • This paper defined the chronology from prosperity to decline of Shijiahe culture. • Climate change has been revealed by pollen and heavy metals since 4800 cal. yr BP. The Shijiahe Culture (ca. 4800–4100 yr BP), which originated in the middle Yangtze Basin, was a milestone of prehistoric Chinese civilization. To reveal the interactions between climatic changes and human activities during this time interval, the geochronology and multiple proxies (pollen and heavy metals) of samples from a 220-cm-deep outer wall at the Sanfangwan Site (a typical site of the Shijiahe Culture) were analyzed. Radiocarbon dating indicates that the age range of the Sanfangwan Site is ca. 4800 to 4100 cal. yr BP. From ca. 4800 to 4600 cal. yr BP (the early Shijiahe Culture), pollen assemblages were dominated by Gramineae and an anthropogenic plant community (e.g. Ranunculaceae, Chenopodiaceae, Labiatae, and Cruciferae), indicating an expansion in rice agriculture during this interval. High metal concentrations in the same interval indicate a large flux of metals from smelting and farming activities. Between ca. 4600 and 4100 cal. yr BP (the middle and late Shijiahe Culture), decreases in Gramineae and anthropogenic pollen mirrored the recession of farming. Concurrent decreases in heavy metals may be attributable to a decline in the smelting industry. Three episodes of high pollen concentrations and visible increases in hygrophyte pollen, Pinus pollen, and fern spores at 4600–4550, 4450–4350, and 4200–4100 cal. yr BP probably indicate the occurrence of several flooding events during the middle and late Shijiahe Culture, resulting in the migration of local inhabitants. This study highlights the driving effect of flood events on the collapse of the Shijiahe Culture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Future impacts of LULC and climate on the streamflow and erosion by new approaches. • SWAT model was applied to estimate future runoff-erosion. • Future climate data generated using GCM coupled to regional circulation model. • The methodology contextualizes potentially significant hydrological changes. • The changes may impact the sustainability of water resources management. Water management in the Caatinga/Atlantic forest ecotone in Brazil is critically dependent on better understanding of potential future changes in streamflow and sediment dynamics. This paper evaluates both the future impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) changes and the impacts of climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield in the Tapacurá River basin in northeastern Brazil, using a novel combination of approaches. Projected climate data derived using global circulation model HadGEM2-ES were coupled to regional circulation model ETA-CPTEC/HadCM3 for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), with bias correction. Two future LULC scenarios were generated: (a) optimistic (current LULC), and (b) pessimistic (land use change trends continue), using the multilayer perceptron algorithm (MP). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to estimate future streamflow and erosion for different periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2099). The SWAT model was calibrated for period of 1995–2003 and validated for 2004–2013. The results showed good accuracy in relation to R2, NSE and PBIAS for the calibration and validation of the runoff, as well as for the verification of the sediment yield. Simulations indicated significant increases in erosion for the pessimistic scenario under RCP 8.5, followed by the pessimistic scenario and RCP 4.5. Lower sediment yields occurred for the optimistic and RCP 8.5, with lower still for the optimistic and RCP 4.5. However, the latter estimates are still considerably higher than baseline conditions. Although higher flows are found for some scenarios, the increases in sediment yield have serious implications for reservoir siltation and storage reduction. Despite modeling uncertainty, the results demonstrate that the proposed methodology has promising scope to contextualize potentially significant regional hydrological changes which have implications for land and biodiversity management and the sustainability of water resources in the Caatinga/Atlantic forest ecotone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Deltaic Holocene vegetation changes & its dynamic relation with climate & sea level. • Paucity of pollen in early Holocene succession related to low sea-level. • Higher mid-Holocene precipitations (SWM & NEM) inferred from tropical pollen signal. • Pollen record shows high NEM precipitation from ~5163 to ~2541 YBP. • Post-2541 YBP: a drier signal linked to salinity changes and river avulsion. Palynological and other sedimentary records in the south-eastern peninsular India where the retreating (North-East) monsoon brings the main rainfall are scarce. This paper tries to address not only this gap in data but also the methodological challenges of interpreting such data in terms of sea level, depositional environment and climatic changes of the area going back nearly 11040 years. In addition to other (chemical) proxies studied previously, pollen data of a chronologically well constrained sediment core (~20 m) from Porayar (11°01.178′N 79°50.446′E), in the coastal marginal part of the Cauvery delta, Southern India, have been analyzed. The three major pollen zones observed since 11,040 years are presented and discussed, as are the methodological challenges of interpreting the vegetation record in such a dynamic and diverse environment (the delta plains of southern India). The zones observed indicate various transitions: from a lower sea level condition to a more stable sea level that created an estuarine environment filled with brackish water that supported pollen assemblages of a marshland but not a true mangrove. Concurrently, pollen assemblages that indicate catchments at multiple spatial scales – local to regional, extending from the North-East monsoon dominated delta to the Western Ghats is also inferred for climate interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Predicted maximum precipitation location is sensitive to the coupling scheme. • Diabatic large-scale forcing is improved by semi-lagrangean schemes at longer ranges. • High-resolution corrects local front dynamics, timing and flood hydrograph. • Driving modes of variability leading floods support operational flood prediction. • Trends of driving modes indicate near-future expectancy of extreme floods. The mechanisms of regional climate extremes and their changes in a transient climate are a real concern in climate research. Moreover, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere these became increasingly threatening in the last years, presenting regionally, higher intensity, persistence and in some cases increased frequency. This paper investigates modeling ability to represent the occurrence and development mechanism of an extreme flooding event over Crisul Alb river basin (Romania) through sensitivity numerical simulations using a very high resolution regional climate model (from 30 km to 3 km) coupled to a hydrological model. We find that the main mechanism leading to the occurrence of severe flooding in the area is a dynamical modulation of the large-scale flow forced by large-regional scale interaction. Under northerly flow, a systematic formation of a secondary undulation of frontal lines, topographically forced, is responsible for the system steadiness and rotation with precipitation recurrence over the area and event amplification. The skill in representing these extreme events comes, as shown by the experiments, from an accurate representation of the large-scale information transmission that has an impact on the location of the event, from the representation of the diabatic large-scale sources into the inner domain with main impact on the timing of the development and from the inner domain resolution that has a strong impact in reproducing the dynamical modulation process and the amplitude of the event. This scale-interaction mechanism was validated on a 30 years data-basis of observed flooding events over the same domain, emphasizing that the key preconditioning found, remains valid. Further, the large-scale drivers of this mechanism were identified, providing potential operational flood prediction support, while their trends and variability's changes provide indications for near-future expectancy of extreme floods in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Holocene vegetation history was reconstructed in a mountain area of north China by pollen data. • Mountain forests responded more sensitively to temperature before 6.0 cal. kyr BP. • Mountain forests responded more sensitively to summer monsoon after 6.0 cal. kyr BP. • Human impact was not serious for vegetation until several centuries ago. Understanding Holocene vegetation response regimes will improve predictions of future vegetation dynamics in mountain areas of semi-arid north China. In this paper, we statistically analyzed the relationship between a pollen record in a mountain area of semi-arid north China and influencing variables independent of pollen data, in the hope that potential vegetation forcing and response regimes can be explored. Our result suggests that the cool deciduous forest (CDF) at high elevation and the temperate deciduous forest (TDF) at middle and lower elevation were sensitive in responding to temperature before 6000 cal. yr BP, but were not sensitive to the summer monsoon (SM). Since 6000 cal. yr BP, the CDF and TDF were sensitive in responding to the SM instead of temperature. Hence, a shift of response regimes can be placed at ∼6000 cal. yr BP, which happened to be consistent with the time that forest expansion changed to deforestation. The insensitive response to the SM during the early Holocene might be attributed to the vegetation elevational movement, the topographic barrier for forest migration from refugia, and/or the topographically related high resistance and resilience of mountain forests. The sensitive response of CDF and TDF to the weakening SM since 6000 cal. yr BP was mainly caused by the cumulative moisture deficit caused by the continual weakening of the SM. Human activity had little impact on mountain forests until several centuries ago. Mountain forest expansion in response to climate warming during the early to middle Holocene can provide analogues for the prediction of forest dynamics of future warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The area of the Aral Sea shrank by 60,156.50 km2 (about 87.85%). • The total loss of water volume was approximately 1,000.51 km3. • Glacier mass loss in the basin was much larger than lake volume variation. • Human activities especially damming and irrigation are the driving factors. The Aral Sea (68,478 km2 in 1960) was the world's fourth largest inland lake in 1960s. However, it shrank sharply over the past six decades, and its changes caused a series of severe environmental issues. In this paper, we reconstructed its variations over the period of 1960 to 2018 by using observation data and remote sensing data, and analyzed their influencing factors. The results show that the area of the Aral Sea shrank dramatically by 60,156.50 km2 (about 87.85%) and the total loss of water volume was approximately 1,000.51 km3 over the study period. In 1986, the Aral Sea broken up into the south and the north parts. Since then, the South Aral Sea has shrunk continuously, while both the area and the water volume of the North Aral Sea have had a little change and shown a very slightly increasing trend. Through comprehensive analysis, it was found that human activities, especially damming and irrigation, are the dominant factors influencing the long-term variation of the Aral Sea. The increased precipitation and glacier meltwater could not compensate for the water loss of the Aral Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alluvial fans occur in all climatic and tectonic environments. However, most descriptions of fan features and sediments have focused on arid and semiarid regions. This paper describes the sediments and soil ages on 63 alluvial fans in a subhumid climate (mean annual precipitation of 45–52 cm). SSURGO soil data were merged with geologic and topographic data in the ArcMap© GIS platform to develop a series of maps showing variations across fan surfaces in sediment textures and surface stability ages. Particle size data (percent cobble and percent total gravel) from the upper 150 cm of sediments cluster into six textural groups that are aligned along a trend of decreasing gravel percentage (decreasing stream capacity) and decreasing cobble percentage (decreasing stream competency). The groups of higher cobble and gravel percentages extend from fan apex to toe in both the shallow (<50 cm depth) and deeper (>100 cm depth) layers with groups of lower cobble and gravel percentage occurring along fan margins in the shallow (<50 cm depth) layer. The thickness of B and Bt horizons from representative soil profiles were used to calculate proportional soil ages based on 10Be residence times in loessial Bt horizons and correlation of gravelly fan soils to similar gravelly soils on nearby Pinedale outwash. This approach identified six stability episodes since the end of the Bull Lake beginning at ~100 ka, ~38 ka, ~27 ka, ~16 ka, ~10 ka, and <2 ka. The proportional soil ages correlate closely with fan chronologies constrained by TL and OSL ages in nearby areas. Soil ages and sediment textural groups differed between fan populations along the mountain front with active faulting and those along the stable mountain front. Fan stability surfaces older than 16 ka are preserved only at fault termini. Holocene faulting resulted in fans with (1) coarser sediments, (2) younger sediments, (3) progressive onlap of younger sediments, (4) the absence of relic fan surfaces, landslides and colluvium at the mountain front, and (5) the onlap of alluvial fans onto the floodplain of the axial stream. Sediment pulses related to individual fault events could not be definitively identified because of concurrent climatic changes. The study demonstrates that both climatic and tectonic conditions influence sediment textures and fan surfaces ages. • Sediments cluster into six groups reflecting progressive changes in stream power • The same high capacity/high competency textural groups dominate all fan sediments • Six fan-surface stability episodes since Bull Lake (100, 38, 27, 16, 10, and < 2 ka) • Relict fans >38 ka only occur at fault termini; elsewhere fan surfaces are <16 ka • Identified fan-stability episodes are regional and correspond to climate changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]