Search

This paper aims to improve the spatial accuracy of urban growth simulation models and clarify any associated uncertainties. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Random Forest (RF), and Logistic Regression (LR) were implemented to simulate urban growth in the megacity of Tehran, Iran, as a case study. Model calibration was performed using data between 1985 and 1999 whereas the data between 1999 and 2014 was used for model validation. First of all, Transition Index Maps (TIMs) were computed by means of each model to assess the potential of urban growth for each cell. Using the standard deviation, consensus between the TIMs was evaluated. Because the TIMs of the individual models manifested discrepancies, they were combined using a number of ensemble forecasting approaches including median, mathematical average, principle component analysis, and weighted area under the total operating characteristic. The individual and combined TIMs were then put into Cellular Automata (CA) to simulate the future pattern of urban growth in Tehran. The results were evaluated in two stages. At first, the TIMs were evaluated by means of Total Operating Characteristics (TOC), and then a set of statistical indices was used to evaluate the spatial accuracy of the simulated urban growth maps. The best result was obtained by median ensemble forecasting, whereas the LR model showed the lowest level of accuracy. In similar studies, it is recommended to implement and compare different ensemble methods when integrating individual models. • We compared the effectiveness of ANNs, RF and LR for urban growth modelling. • Standard error map indicated discrepancy among the results of individual models. • Various ensemble forecasting approaches were proposed to combine individual models. • Mean ensemble forecasting created more accurate simulated maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The availability of reliable and ubiquitous urban services data is a key component of successful city management. The inability of traditional bureaucratic public administration to meet citizens’ needs effectively has led to a search for new methods that grant more efficient, effective and reliable provision of services to citizens. Because there are many users with distinct computing platforms and preferences, urban services data must be accessible using interoperable solutions. Numerous solutions for providing interoperability are proposed by the Geospatial Information (GI) community, as well as the Information Technology (IT) community. The most widely used technologies for providing interoperability in the GI community are OGC services framework. In the IT community, Web services technologies provide full potential interoperability among heterogeneous computing platforms. However, these two kinds of services are not directly compatible. To provide an interoperable solution, OGC services and Web services should be integrated efficiently. The underlying issue in integrating OGC services and Web services is the gap between the predefined functionality inherent in the OGC services, and the lack of any predefined functionality in the Web services technologies. This paper identifies the implementation issues in integrating OGC services and Web services and then proposes standards-based approaches to overcome these integration issues. Afterwards, the paper explains the design and development of Standards-based Interoperable Services for Accessing Urban Services Data (SISAUSD). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper couples a Forward Feature Selection algorithm with Random Forest (FFS-RF) to create a transition index map, which then guides the spatial allocation for the extrapolation of urban growth using a Cellular Automata model. We used Landsat imagery to generate land cover maps at the years 1998, 2008, and 2018 for the Tehran-Karaj Region (TKR) in Iran. The FFS-RF considered the independent variables of slope, altitude, and distances from urban, crop, greenery, barren, and roads. The FFS-RF revealed temporal non-stationary of drivers from 1998–2008 to 2008–2018. The FFS-RF detected that altitude and distance from greenery were the most important drivers of urban growth during 1998–2008, then distances from crop and barren were the most important drivers during 2008–2018. We used the Total Operating Characteristic to evaluate the transition index maps. Validation during 2008–2018 showed that FFS-RF produced a transition index map that had predictive power no better than an allocation of urban growth near existing urban. Simulation to 2060 extrapolated that Tehran, Karaj, and their adjacent cities will interconnect spatially to form a gigantic city-region. [Display omitted] • A Forward Feature Selection - Random Forest (FFS-RF) model describes urban growth. • FFS-RF found temporal non-stationarity of drivers in Iran's Tehran-Karaj region. • The Total Operating Characteristic evaluated the transition index map (TIM). • FFS-RF produced a TIM that has predictive power no better than a baseline TIM. • FFS-RF and Cellular Automata extrapolated urban growth to the year 2060. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]