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Latinos are the largest minority group in the United States and having picked up on this demographic explosion the major political parties have made a concerted effort to woo potential Latino voters in the last three presidential elections. Millions of dollars have been spent on Latino targeted ground and air campaign strategies. However, heretofore little research has been done to determine if the rise of Amigo Politics strategies has been an effective mobilizing and/or persuasion tool. Moreover, has the rise of Amigo Politics alienated non-Latino voters? To answer these questions we examine ad data from the CMAG, survey research, and original survey experiments. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The party identification of various racial and ethnic minority groups within the United States has become an important topic as the size and variety of all minority groups have grown since the 1960s. While several scholars have investigated partisanship among African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos, less research has been done the political identification of religious minorities. Consequently, a gap exists in the literature regarding the political leanings of Muslim Americans and other non-Christian denominations, as their place in American society has become more permanent. In particular, Muslim Americans represent one of the most interesting cases in party identification, as a group with seemingly unstable partisanship and very high rates of non-affiliation with political parties in the U.S. In this paper we argue that the rhetoric and positions of American political parties on issues relating to Islam create a dilemma for Muslims in the U.S. Given the inherent Christian structure of American politics, we contend that the most religious Muslims Americans will not find a place on the traditional partisan spectrum. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than ever before, the 2008 election witnessed many states pushing up their presidential primary schedules to dates in January and February 2008. By the end of February 2008, 38 states had already voted in the presidential primary process, up from only two states, Iowa and New Hampshire that had voted by March 1, 1976. The impetus for this action is clearâ??individual states want to play a greater role in the party nomination process. However, with the rise of early primaries, voters have a smaller window to make informed decisions about candidate selection, and perceptions of previous state outcomes and candidate momentum may play a larger role than ever in vote choice. Consequently, many voters were likely to switch candidate support over the course of the 2008 primary campaign. This is especially the case on the Democratic side where the contest was exceptionally close and the two frontrunners, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, both experienced big wins in early states that changed momentum and could result in vote switching. Are voter preferences stable as the series of nomination contests unfold, or do voters form and change preferences in response to outcomes in earlier states? Although cross-sectional and aggregate data has informed this debate, there are, surprisingly, no panel surveys of primary voters. This paper examines individual-level proclivity to switch votes, and how this is influenced by awareness of previous state outcomes, perceptions of viability and shifts in evaluations of candidates. This process illuminates the intangible dynamic of momentum. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly forty years after passage of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, a fundamental question remains unanswered: Although all citizens have an equal right to the ballot, do all citizens enjoy equal access to the ballot box? That is, are voting precincts in predominantly low-income and non-White neighborhoods, less visible, less stable, harder to find, and harder to navigate than voting precincts in high-income and predominantly White neighborhoods? If so, does the lower quality result in lower levels of voting, all other things equal? In order to assess the accessibility and quality of polling places across the city?s diverse neighborhoods, students researchers at Loyola Marymount University visited randomly selected voting precincts where they completed a carefully designed 30-point checklist and used cameras to document their findings. Our analysis indicates the quality of polling places varies across the diverse neighborhoods of Los Angeles and that the quality of polling places impacts voter turnout. Low-income and minority communities tended to have ?lower quality? precincts, which tended to depress voter turnout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to developing a set of civic skills that make it easier to write letters to Congress, volunteer for campaigns, and attend demonstrations, engagement and recruitment are important explanatory factors in political participation (Verba, Schlozman and Brady 1995). While the Voice and Equality data extensively tests the impact of this model in self-reported acts of political participation, little work has extended the theory to official validated records of voter participation, especially among Latino and Asian American voters. This paper argues that Latinos and Asian Americans will be more likely to be psychologically engaged and recruited where more Latino and Asian American candidates are on the ballot, which in turn will result in a greater likelihood of voting. Using individual level data for the universe of more than 5 million registered voters in Los Angeles and Orange counties, we estimate probit models for voter turnout in the November 2002 general election. We introduce a unique measure for engagement and recruitment: the number of Latino and Asian American candidates that appear on the ballot for all levels of office in the two counties, providing a unique count of the number of Latinos and Asian Americans each voter had the opportunity to elect (engagement) and be contacted by (recruitment). Using these variables as proxies for engagement and recruitment, we find that the probability of Latino and Asian American voting increases as the number of co-ethnic candidates on the ballot increases. For both Asian Americans and Latinos, the effect is stronger among foreign-born naturalized voters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using official validated vote records from the Registrar of Voters, we examine voter turnout among Latinos and non-Latinos following the 2001 redistricting effort. Specifically, we compare turnout rates for Latinos that were districted out of, or into, a Latino district. In California, district boundaries shifted significantly in areas where the Latino population was becoming a majority to protect incumbent non-Latino office holders. In most instances, these Latinos were shifted to neighboring districts that already had Latino representatives. If the chance to elect a Latino candidate is a mobilizing force, we expect that Latinos shifting into Latino-held districts will be more likely to vote than in previous years. We test this proposition by modeling voter turnout in 2002 (election under new districts) among registered voters in Los Angeles and Orange Counties to determine if Latinos who moved into or out of Latino-represented districts are more or less likely to vote. In this naturally occurring experiment, there are four possibilities confronting a voter after redistricting: (1) Moved from non-Latino to Latino district; (2) Moved from Latino to non-Latino district; (3) Stayed in Latino district; (4) Stayed in non-Latino district. All other things being equal, we find that Latinos who moved from a non-Latino to Latino district were significantly more likely to vote, while non-Latinos who moved for the first time into a Latino district, were less likely to vote. Probit models are estimated using county registrar records from California. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Partisan gerrymandering has long been used to secure the election and reelection of candidates from particular political parties. While there can be no doubt that efforts along these lines have been successful, questions arise concerning how this tool influences the political behavior of constituents in the affected districts. One element of this secondary effect concerns the mobilization prospects of potential co-partisan electorates. Reformers of the electoral system have often claimed that the creation of safe partisan seats drives down voter turnout, in ways that can significantly shape the electorate for up-ballot elections. That is, while virtually ensuring the partisanship of the winner, such districts may result in the suppression of voter turnout by reducing the incentive to turnout in safe districts. In this effort, we assess whether gerrymandered districts suppress voter turnout by removing the incentive to vote or whether members of the advantaged party turn out as part of the winning team. To estimate the influence of partisan majority districts on individual level voter turnout, we compare the actual turnout of voters over multiple elections. The data utilized is a universe of registered voters in five California counties - Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Ventura, and Riverside, as of December 2000. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a unique survey of Muslim Americans, this paper examines differences in religious identity between Sunni and Shi'a and how these differences impact political incorporation and participation in the United States. While the Muslim American community is very diverse, little is known about how differences between Sunni and Shia sects affect Muslim American group identity and further, patterns of political participation. On the one hand, Islam teaches that there is only one Islam, and that all Muslims are equal and the same. On the other hand, very real differences have emerged between the Sunni and Shia communities, both globally, and within the United States. In this paper we model a range of political dependent variables, with particular attention to religiosity interacted with Sunni or Shia sect, and find that once degree of religiosity is controlled for, no differences exist at all between Sunni and Shia Muslims, with respect to ideology, issue preference, and participation. While differences do exist at the bivariate level, strength in religiosity appears to be a unifying force. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Latino voters were mobilized in unique ways in the 2008 primaries and general election. The primary season presented a politically unique environment for Latino voters: the presence of a co-ethnic candidate, unprecedented targeted advertising, and heightened media attention throughout the primary season. The general election also saw Latino voters play a critical role in swing states, giving Latinos unprecedented political clout in a presidential election. In this paper we explore Latino candidate preferences as a function of enthusiasm for specific candidates coupled with unprecedented mobilization efforts. Unique datasets of registered Latino voters in both the primaries and the general election are employed to test the relationship between candidate preferences and the political environment. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 2000 Presidential election voter education and mobilization has witnessed a renaissance in targeted contact and segmented messaging. Candidates, political parties, and interest groups have taken advantage of advances in electronic databases to divide and subdivide the electorate into different groups, and have different messages and messengers for each subgroup of voters. For decades, scholars and practitioners have known that personalized campaign appeals are more effective. Labor unions, religious leaders, military veterans, and racial and ethnic community leaders have typically been used by campaigns to make a stronger, more personalized, and perhaps more trusting connection with voters. This paper takes up the question of whether or not personalized or segmented contact during a campaign is more successful at convincing voters than "generic" contact, or no contact at all.Using data from a national survey of Latino registered voters in 2004, we examine the impact of being contacted by a co-ethnic messenger on support for the Republican and Democratic parties. While some previous studies have examined voter turnout or vote choice, this paper examines the deeper implications of co-ethnic contact, including support for public policy and candidate favorability. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using ANES data from 1964 - 2000 we examine the impact of district-level competitiveness on political efficacy and trust in government. With an overwhelming number of the contests are uncompetitive, scholars have wondered what impact the lack of competition has had on voter attitudes. From a normative standpoint, many scholars have argued that competitive elections are essential to democracy because they make elected officials more responsive to the citizenry, raise awareness of important issues, engage voters in debates on issues of the day, and provide opportunities for turnover in representation, holding members of Congress accountable to the public. Theoretically, we should expect this to have a positive result on efficacy and trust.On the other hand, always being in a district where your co-partisan wins could increase satisfaction with your member of Congress while bitterly fought campaigns might become negative and turn voters off from the electoral process and both parties, resulting in lower levels of efficacy and trust. In this paper, we study the effects of electoral competition on citizen efficacy and trust in government by examining elections to the House of Representatives over the last 40 years. We find that competitive elections have both a positive and negative effect on efficacy, which has changed markedly over time. The time series data we employ and the different results by decade indicate that this issue is well worth re-examining. Although previous papers haven take up the relationship between competitiveness and efficacy or trust, few have asked whether the relationship has changed over time, let alone reversed. Our findings suggest this is the case. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Despite limited experience courting the Latino community, both political partiesmade a point to campaign aggressively for Latino "swing" votes through advertisements andget-out-the-vote (GOTV) drives in 2006. While there is a new commitment to Spanishlanguageadvertising and direct contact with Latino voters, no evidence exists that thistargeted outreach has worked. The question remains, does targeted advertising influence thevote choice of Latinos, and, how does this advertising affect the more general population?To address these questions, we implemented an experiment during the 2006 Californiaelection. Latino and non-Latino subjects were randomly assigned to a control or treatmentgroup. Those in the treated groups received a flyer endorsing Arnold Schwarzenegger forgovernor, containing an endorsement from a Latino or an Anglo political figure. Thetreatment ads were further divided into English only or in both English/Spanish. Thus, thegroups were as follows: Anglo endorser English, Latino endorser English, Anglo endorserbilingual, and Latino endorser bilingual. We expect to find that targeted messages shouldhave a stronger influence on vote preference than non-targeted messages among Latinos.Further, the combined effect of a Latino endorser with a message delivered in bothlanguages might have the strongest effects. Finally, non-Latinos should be less receptive tothe Latino-targeted ads, perhaps witnessing a demobilizing effect. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]