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Despite numerous studies having discussed whether and how electoral institutions affect voters voting behaviors, the conclusions diverse. To tackle this question, the 2004 electoral reform in Taiwan provides a natural experiment. By applying structural equation modeling techniques to panel data from the 2004-2008 Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) survey, I investigate whether and how the change in electoral institutions affect voters’ decisions. The statistical analysis supports conventional wisdoms and demonstrates that in contrast with single non-transferable vote (SNTV) and proportional representation (PR) systems, single member district (SMD) systems make voters identifying with minor parties become more likely to desert their favorite parties and to strategically vote for major parties. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan has increased its vote share in the past three legislative elections. Nevertheless, the 2004 and 2008 elections were widely viewed as major defeats for the party. Through an analysis of the DPP's performance in recent Legislative Yuan elections, this article considers the effects of electoral rules on election outcomes and the perception of those outcomes. In Taiwan, under both the previous Single Non-transferable Vote (SNTV) and the current Mixed Member Majoritarian (MMM) systems, the mechanical effect of how electoral rules translate votes into seats and the psychological impact this has on voter and party behavior have often dramatically influenced party electoral performance by causing vote and seat shares to diverge. This divergence also affects the perception of party electoral performance by causing outcomes not to meet expectations. In addition, this article analyzes the effects of recent changes to the electoral system in Taiwan and whether these changes structurally disadvantage the DPP. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]