Search

This paper analyzes the impact of the Chile-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (CKFTA) over the bilateral extensive and intensive margins of trade. Using disaggregated product-level data for the period 1996-2017, the paper tests the impact of CKFTA on bilateral flows, as well as differentiate these effects between intensive and extensive margins at the product level. To estimate, a Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood model is proposed. It is found that the CKFTA had a positive effect over bilateral trade flows, and although new products were added to the bilateral export basket (extensive margin), the impact is stronger on goods already traded (intensive margin). Moreover, the paper concludes that this effect is stronger for Chilean exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we develop a daily-frequency measure of economic and policy uncertainty for Chile, employing information obtained from Twitter accounts using web scraping techniques and following closely the methodology proposed by Baker et al. (2016). Our proposed measure, called DEPUC, aims to capture the level of general disagreement -a proxy for economic and policy uncertainty-in topics such as the economy, economic policies, uncertainty about particular events, and Chile's conjuncture situation. The index, available from 2012 onwards, shows significant hikes that coincide with several local and international episodes that provoked extraordinary levels of uncertainty in Chile, especially after the events around the civil protests in mid-October 2019 and the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-March 2020. An empirical exercise reveals that the proposed measure is a significant determinant of the nominal exchange rate dynamics, especially when this variable's magnitude is high and a week after the shock occurs. On the contrary, when the exchange rate is low, the impact of uncertainty on this variable is quantitatively smaller for any forecasting horizon. These features, and others discussed in the paper, highlight the usefulness of the proposed metric as an additional indicator that policymakers can incorporate into their monitoring toolkit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent global trends show high levels of households' indebtedness in developed and emerging economies. This paper proposes a method applicable in those economies where a household financial survey and interest rate caps exist. The method applies to the country with the most indebted households in Latin America, Chile. The results state that: (i) the same debt threshold does not apply to all households as variables such as income affect it; (ii) the debt threshold increases with households' income level; (iii) the presence of mortgage debt increases the debt thresholds; (iv) Chilean households overindebted are more than a quarter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the role played by credit unions in financial inclusion in Chile. Using administrative individual-level data, we analyze the borrowing behavior of credit union debtors. The results find that credit unions contribute to financial inclusion: it is more likely that people with low income, elderly, women, and inhabitants of small communities, far from the large urban centers, borrow from credit unions. Also, we find that having a credit union commercial office in the county where individuals live increases their access to credit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the effects of the 2014-2015 Chilean tax reform on firms’ valuation and incentives to retain earnings and finance their operations with equity versus debt. By analyzing the effects of the reform on total taxes paid and cash flows received by investors, the paper concludes that in general the reform reduces the value of firms and lessens the incentives to retain earnings. Also, simulations show that the majority of firms would choose the accrual or ‘attributed’ tax based system. However, if the latter is not permitted firms will choose debt over equity. The cash-based or semi-integrated system becomes the preferred option only when tax avoidance is possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the effects of new technologies oriented to automation in the Chilean labor market. A general equilibrium model is used, in which the investment in robotic capital and the investment in traditional capital are considered separately, allowing the study of the effects of complementarity and substitution that are verified in relation to the labor factor. In particular, the model treats robotic capital as a direct substitute for labor, while incorporating traditional capital as complementary to it. By subjecting the economy to shocks in robotic capital prices, the effects on consumption, employment, wages and GDP can be studied. The results indicate that a fall in the international purchase price of robotic capital has a negative impact on employment as well as on the product. The exercises carried out in this study indicate that a decrease in the international price of robotic capital by 1 %, under conditions of high replacement rates between employment and robots, produces a drop in employment and wages of 0.05% if the change is transitory and of 0.25% if it is permanent due to an increase in imports of robotic capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper investigates the dynamics in the Chilean labor market during 1996 and 2016. It estimates the unemployment flows following Shimer (2012) in order to characterize labor market variables in the bussisnes cycle. According to our results recessionary increases in unemployment are driven by the outflow from unemployment rather than the inflow. Using structural vector autorregresive analysis (SVAR), we estimate a model to identify several shocks that affect the economy and labor market. An aggregate supply shock generates greater variance in the inflow also shows grater persistence to the variety of shocks examined; meanwhile an aggregate demand shock generates greater variance in the outflow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to identify the key determinants of Chilean spot power price and assess their relative importance in recent price decline. To do so, we use a VAR model with weekly data between the years 2015-2016 and variance decomposition analysis to attribute variations of marginal cost to different shocks. The results show that while the availability of water for hydropower and lower fuel prices are important for explaining power spot prices, they only account for 50%-75% of the marginal cost's variance, leaving 25%-50% to other factors, such as more renewable generation and lower generation from oil sources, among other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes relevant empirical evidence which indicates the existence of difference in default rate of loans between male and female. It concludes that independent of types of loans, the default rate of female is less than male. Moreover this paper analyzes the effect of other variables as Married Status and Size/Income over default rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past few years, monetary policy communication has become a hot topic in as far as it seems to have become a very relevant way for central banks to guide markets, beyond actual monetary policy decisions. This paper investigates this issue empirically for the case of Chile. More specifically, using data from 2005 to 2014 and a Component GARCH model, we assess whether changes in the communication of the Central Bank of Chile generates in particular a permanent or temporary change in the volatility of interest rates, after controlling for changes in monetary policy instruments. Our results show that the volatility in interest rate futures in Chile’s swap markets increases following the Central Bank’s communication. However, the impact tends to be temporary instead of permanent and only statistically significant in the pre-crisis period. All in all, our results indicate a reduced relevance of Central Bank's communication for short term swap markets which may reflect that market participants have learned to anticipate changes in monetary policy communication, especially after the global financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over more than two decades, both experts and the public have considered that profits earned by Chilean Pension Fund Administrators (AFP for its acronym in Spanish) are excessively high. However, there is little known about how much the industry should earn in equilibrium. In this paper, I show that the 25.4% return on equity (ROE) earned by the AFP industry over 2006-2015 was 4.8 times as high as the 5.3% that can be explained by its exposure to market risk. In monetary terms, out of the US$ 4.4 billion earned by the AFP industry over the last decade, nearly $ 3.5 billion can be considered as “excessive”. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes the inflow into non-performing loans (INPL) ratio, defined as the change in the stock of non-performing loans adjusted by write-offs and standardized by loans, as the main measure to be used for modelling the credit risk of the Chilean banking system. In particular, the paper identifies certain statistical and conceptual advantages of this measure with respect to loan loss provisions (LLP), which support this idea. First, the INPL ratio by type of credit has a greater time span than LLP. Second, the forward-looking nature of LLP --one of its main advantages over the INPL ratio-- is applicable only from 2004 onward due to various changes in Chilean reporting standards. Third, LLP is discretionary because provisioning is made on the basis of relative risk aversion of banks. Fourth, the INPL ratio produces smoother series than LLP for consumer and mortgage loans. In addition, the dynamic structure observed in both time series does not differ significantly. The econometric model estimated for the period January 1997 to June 2010 shows that the INPL ratio has statistically significant relations with macroeconomic aggregates such as the annual output growth, the short and long term interest rates, the annual inflation rate, the peso-dollar exchange rate, and non expected credit growth. Finally, the out-of-sample forecasts indicate differences between the actual and projected INPL ratios that are economically significant only in the case of mortgage credit. For the remaining portfolios, the evolution of this ratio during the period of July 2008 to June 2010 does not differ significantly from that predicted by the econometric model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper detects structural similarities among several regions in Chile, in particular those that can be compared to the Magellanic and the Chilean Antarctica region: the regions Tarapacá, Libertador Bernardo O'Higgins Riquelme, Bío- Bío and Los Lagos. This exercise is particularly relevant given the economic characteristics and geographic location of all of them. This comparison would allow less advantaged regions to learn from the most successful ones. Policy makers would be able to evaluate ex-ante different policies, helping in this way the decision making process. To this end, in this paper we follow two approaches: first, we find similarities among regions using Le Masne's (1988) indicator; second, we use one in which the similarities are identified through the productive links, following the methodologies of Rasmussen (1956), Dietzenbacher and van der Linden (1997) and Soza (2007b). Once we determine which technique is better for our problem, a hierarchical cluster is applied to obtain groups of regions based on the relationship they form. It is of particular interest to identify those sectors that have the largest impact on development and analyze its productive linkages. The analysis is done using the 1996 input-output charts developed by National Institute of Statistics (INE) and the Ministry of Planning and Development (MIDEPLAN). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last 20 years, demand for air passenger transport has grown dramatically. At the same time, the two largest domestic airlines merged and several smaller entrants exited without being able to make significant inroads. As a result, the industry is highly concentrated, with a dominant firm and a few fringe firms. This condition has generated considerable public debate about the degree of competition in the airline industry in Chile. With the purpose of contributing to the public discussion, this paper analyzes the industry from an industrial organization point of view. Specifically, the paper describes the domestic airline industry in Chile, defines the relevant market and then analyzes both the degree of concentration and entry conditions. In particular, I focus on the roles played by vertical integration, the computer reservation systems and the revenue management practice. I then evaluate self-regulation of airfares by the dominant firm and propose several public policies to increase competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are several examples of pelagic fisheries that have experienced fishing collapse when facing downward abundance cycles. Improving understanding about pelagic catch's stock dependence can help avoid new cases of fishing collapse. This paper analyses the possible endogeneity of the fish stock variable in a pelagic fishery harvest function. The harvest function is estimated using panel data and 'El Niño' episodes as instrumental variable for the Chilean jack mackerel biomass. This strategy produces consistent estimates of the fish biomass coefficient. The paper makes two contributions. First, it corrects for endogeneity of the fish stock variable, an issue often underestimated in empirical fishery economics. Secondly, it shows that 'El Niño' episodes have negative effects on the Chilean jack mackerel biomass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to review the main factors of the yield curve in Chilean market during the period 2005-2013. Two different approaches are used to compute the main three factors denoted as the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve. Then, the impact of economic surprises and announcements are analyzed. Our results indicate that local surprises and announcements (both local and external) have similar effects on the estimated factors under both approaches, whereas is evidenced an asymmetric impact in the case of external surprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chile has experienced tremendous changes over the past centuries. Notwithstanding the importance of many of these transformations, the demographic change has been crucial, given its influence on the whole Chilean society. This paper inquires into the effects of the Chilean demographic transition on the fiscal policies implemented by the government throughout a 150 years period. The results suggest a correlation between demographic variables and fiscal expenditure on different goods. Particularly, the estimations find a positive impact of a younger population on educational expenditure and negative effects of the share of adult population on fiscal expenditures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the neoclassical convergence hypothesis is tested for the thirteen regions of Chile using cross-section techniques and the time-series based tests proposed by Bernard, A. and S. Durlauf, 1995, "Convergence in International Output", Journal of Applied Econometrics 10(2), pp. 97-108. Cross-section analysis in combination with a Bayesian Modeling Averaging strategy supports the convergence hypothesis, despite of some instability detected in the estimated speed of convergence. When applying time-series based tests, the no convergence null hypothesis cannot be rejected at the usual significance levels. When clustering the Chilean regions into three different groups, however, evidence of cointegration within these groups is found, indicating that the regional growth process in Chile is driven by a lower number of common trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to assess the effects of foreign financial shocks on the Chilean economy, for which a model including foreign and domestic series, for both real and financial variables at quarterly frequency is estimated. Among the main results, it is found that Chilean GDP is negatively and significantly affected by shocks in the volatility of foreign stock markets, while the Chilean currency depreciates and the domestic interest rate decreases due to this type of innovations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research gives the magnitude, evolution and characteristics of academic and socioeconomic polarization in the Chilean school system. After examining the importance of the education system as a means of social cohesion, we analyze the implications of distribution processes of students in their education and the main background on the Chilean education system. Furthermore, the paper conceptualizes the notion of polarization, which is related to two aspects: the alienation or distance that students have with students different from them, and the identification or identity that individuals develop with others of similar characteristics. Using SIMCE databases from the last decade, we create and formalized three different indicators of polarization to assess the school system. The results show that the degree of academic and socio-economic polarization of the Chilean school system over the last decade has been constant, and in some cases increasing. Additionally, the measurement that determines the degree of polarization shows high levels socioeconomic and academic polarization, which is related to processes of fragmentation and clustering. These results show the necessity of analyzing the impact of educational policies on the processes of social cohesion and integration in the school system. This has to consider the importance of the school as a privileged place for these goals, as well as on the development of skills, values and cognitive thinking and noncognitive skills for all children. These results have been questioned from recent conflicts that have occurred in the education sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study household debt default behavior in Chile using survey data. Previous research in this area suggests financial and personal variables help estimate individual and group probabilities of default. We study mortgage and consumer default separately, as the default decisions and overall borrower behavior are different for each type of debt. Our study finds that income and income-related variables are the only significant and robust variables that explain default for both types of debt. Demographic or personal variables are affected by only one type of debt but not more. For example, the level of education is a factor that affects mortgage default, whereas the determinants of consumer debt default include the age of the household head, and the number of people within the household that contribute to the total family income. We find that the probability of default decreases as the family income increases, and that our estimations are consistent with other studies similar to ours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade data shows that real exchange rate fluctuates more than other variables such as consumption and GDP, and also presents significant deviations from the Law of One Price. In light of these facts, this paper develops and estimates a non-monetary DSGE model under financial autarky for the international trade of goods and services between Chile and the U.S. In this context, the higher volatility of the real exchange rate is explained by the existence of transaction costs and varying degrees of imperfect substitution in consumption between home and foreign goods which endogenously induce a home bias effect. The results reveal that the estimated transaction costs and the asymmetric home bias effect content in the data would be responsible for the low correlation between consumption in both countries and the higher real exchange rate fluctuations. Finally, the model is able to replicate much of the stylized facts observed in the data, but fails to address the Backus-Smith puzzle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many authors stress the importance of relationships between sectors for the economic growth. Therefore the concept of linkage appears in the definition of two of the most traditional concepts in the input-output analysis: the "key sector" and cluster . In this paper , key products and activities are identified for the Chilean regions, the clusters that form and the structural similarity that exists between them. For this, we use a combination of so-called Important Coefficients and Fields of Influence. The results indicate that the regions that are most similar are: Tarapacá and Antofagasta, Biobío and Los Lagos. Besides the "developed" regions concept that is associated with a high division of labor and coordination between sectors, they have similar production structures and are very different from those that have "less development". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we provide evidence of exchange rate predictability for a selected emerging market economy (EME) at intermediate horizons, arguably, the most relevant for policy purposes. This is important because the existing literature on exchange rate predictability has mainly focused on developed economies, leaving relatively unexplored the question for EME. By making use of a unique quarterly database of external assets and liabilities for Chile, we show that a measure of external imbalances is able to predict the real exchange rate over horizons of up to two years. Robust out-of-sample evidence on predictability reflects the fact that the external balance's importance to the exchange rate has risen in recent years and/or the precision of parameter estimates rises as sample size grows larger . When we break down our measure for external imbalances into its three component ratios (exports to imports, exports to assets, and assets to liabilities), we find that predictability is mainly driven by the last two. Our results suggest that researchers and policymakers should pay attention to external imbalances to understand the future dynamics of the real exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We elaborate an Environmentally Extended Social Accounting Matrix for the Bío Bío Region. Initially, we apply the Cross Entropy method for updating a Social Accounting Matrix of this region from 1996 to 2006. This matrix provides the basis for a discussion of multipliers, which aims to identify the productive sectors of the region that would generate the most beneficial impacts on production, equity, poverty, and environmental pollution. The paper results are used to assess the priority sectors selected by the Bio-Bio's Productive Development Agency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyze intergenerational income and schooling mobility during the 1996-2006 decade in Chile. Using the countries most extended household panel survey, we overcome some of the limitations of the previous Chilean studies by using observed income data for both parents and children, as opposed to observed income data only for children and income data that is generated for parents from the information given by their children retrospectively. Following the recent literature, we control our estimates for time-series variation (Lee and Solon, 2009). Our results show high intergenerational income elasticities in comparison to other developing countries, and these values are higher for sons than for daughters. The same results hold for educational mobility. Trends analysis show that the transmission of economic status have remained constant during the last years in Chile, while educational mobility has increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) models are estimated for the Chilean economy. Under this approach, the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy and forecast exercises are studied and evaluated for the main macroeconomic variables. Then, the results are contrasted with the standard VAR models presented in the previous literature for the case of Chile and the implications for the monetary policy design are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is substantial evidence suggesting that central banks in open economies react to exchange rate fluctuations, in addition to expected inflation and output. In some developing countries this reaction is comparatively larger and it is nonlinear . In an estimated structural macromodel for Chile, this paper assesses the advantages and potential costs of adopting such a reaction function. We conclude that, in the face of most of the external shocks, a policy rule that responds to exchange rate misalignments smooths inflation and output variability, while marginally increasing interest rate fluctuations. On the other hand, for some domestic innovations such a rule performs poorly. When all the shocks are considered at the same time, this rule generates important welfare gains. Finally, when the volatility of external shocks rises, increasing the response to exchange rate misalignments brings welfare improvements. In fact, a more aggressive response to the exchange rate offsets the impact that greater external volatility has on output and inflation, at the cost of inducing higher interest rate fluctuations. In this way, one can interpret the nonlinear reaction to the exchange rate as an optimal response to a more volatile external environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the structure of tariffs in civil aviation in Chile and the potential cross-subsidies that it generates. We estimate the cross-subsidies that currently exist in this transport networks and find that the current tariff structure generates a number of cross subsidies between airports. In particular, the airports of La Serena, Punta Arenas and Easter Island receive a cross subsidy from the rest of the network. We suggest that it may be beneficial to impose that airports in Chile must fund all their incremental costs. The intuition for this result, which follows from an old idea presented by Adam Smith, Coase and Vickrey, among others, is that the self-financing of airports, or at least their incremental costs, can be an effective mechanism to prevent over investment in infrastructure. In the light of this discussion and the results found in this study it would be advisable to review the structure of Aeronautical Tariffs in Chile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite success in reducing poverty over the last twenty years, inequality in Chile has remained virtually unchanged, making Chile one of the least equal countries in the world. High levels of inequality have been shown to hamper further reductions in poverty as well as economic growth and local inequality has been shown to affect such outcomes as violence and health. The study of inequality at the local level is thus crucial for understanding the economic well-being of a country. Local measures of inequality have been difficult to obtain, but recent theoretical advances have enabled the combination of survey and census data to obtain estimators of inequality that are robust at disaggregated geographic levels. In this paper, we employ this methodology to produce consistent estimators of inequality for every county in Chile. We find a great deal of variation in inequality, with county-level Gini coefficients ranging from 0.41 to 0.63. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the evidence of non-linearities in the reaction function of the Central Bank of Chile as it relates to its final objective, inflation, and/or to its intermediate objectives defined by the monetary policy transmission channels. The study uses the flexible approach to non-linear inference proposed by Hamilton (2001), which allows the estimation of non-linear functions by using the data to determine the specific form of the non-linearity to be adopted instead of making any prior assumption of a particular functional form. It is observed that even though the Central Bank's response is linear in relation to the deviations of the inflation rate from its target, there is evidence of non-linearities with respect to the business cycle. Contrary to previous studies, in particular Corbo (2002), the current account gap does not have any predictive role in the reaction function for the period being analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the residential outage cost in Chile's Central Interconnected System (SIC), using consumer's willingness to pay for energy. We first estimate the cost of reducing energy consumption efficiently, that is only the less valuable kWh (as indicated by the market demand curve) are rationed. Then we estimate the per-kWh cost of rationing by cutting off service. We find that the outage cost varies considerably depending on the length of the rationing period; and on how energy is rationed. Longer restrictions allow users to adjust more, and hence are cheaper. Similarly, we estimate that rationing efficiently is between two and six times cheaper than rationing by cutting off service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]