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To qualify the risk of extreme weather events for power supply security during the long-term power system transformation process, this paper proposes a risk probability evaluation method based on probabilistic production simulation. Firstly, the internal relationship of extreme weather intensity and duration is depicted using the copula function, and the influences of extreme weather on power security are described using the guaranteed power output ability coefficient, which can provide the extreme scenario basis for probabilistic production simulation. Then, a probabilistic production simulation method is proposed, which includes a typical-year scenario and extreme weather events. Meanwhile, an index system is proposed to qualify the power security level, which applies the loss of load expectation (LOLE) and time of loss of load expectation (TOLE) under different scenarios and other indices to reveal the long-term power security trend. Finally, the long-term power supply risks for the Yunnan provincial power system are analyzed using the proposed method, validating that the proposed method is capable of characterizing the influences of extreme weather on power security. The security level of different long-term power transformation schemes is evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-phase tectonic movements and complex geological structures limit the exploration and hotspot prediction of coalbed methane (CBM) in structurally complex areas. This scientific problem is still not fully understood, particularly in the Bumu region, Southwest China. The present paper analyses the occurrence characteristics and distribution of CBM based on the comprehensive analysis of CBM data. In combination with the analysis of the regional tectonics setting, geological structure features and tectonic evolution. The control action of multi-phase tectonic movements on CBM occurrence are further discussed. Results show that the Indosinian local deformation, Yanshanian intense deformation, and Himalayan secondary derived deformation formed the current tectonic framework of Enhong synclinorium. The intense tectonic compression and dextral shear action in the Yanshanian and Himalayan movements caused the complex geological structures in Bumu region, composed of the Enhong syncline, associated reverse faults and late derived normal fault. The CBM distribution is complex, which has the central and western NNE-trending high gas content zones along the syncline hinge zone and the reverse faults. The geological structure controls on CBM enrichment are definite and important. Based on geological structure features and responses of gas content, methane concentration, and gas content gradient, the gas controlling patterns of geological structure are determined and can be classified into five types: the reverse fault sealing, syncline sealing, monoclinal enrichment, normal fault dispersion, and buried floor fault dispersion types. The structural compression above the neutral surface plays an important role in the syncline sealing process, which is indicated by an increase in gas content gradient. The EW-trending tectonic intense compression and dextral shear action in the Himalayan movement avoided the negative inversion of NNE-trending Yanshanian compressive structure and its destruction of CBM reservoir. However, the chronic uplift and derived normal fault during Himalayan period caused the constant dissipation of CBM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-phase tectonic movements and complex geological structures limit the exploration and hotspot prediction of coalbed methane (CBM) in structurally complex areas. This scientific problem is still not fully understood, particularly in the Bumu region, Southwest China. The present paper analyses the occurrence characteristics and distribution of CBM based on the comprehensive analysis of CBM data. In combination with the analysis of the regional tectonics setting, geological structure features and tectonic evolution. The control action of multi-phase tectonic movements on CBM occurrence are further discussed. Results show that the Indosinian local deformation, Yanshanian intense deformation, and Himalayan secondary derived deformation formed the current tectonic framework of Enhong synclinorium. The intense tectonic compression and dextral shear action in the Yanshanian and Himalayan movements caused the complex geological structures in Bumu region, composed of the Enhong syncline, associated reverse faults and late derived normal fault. The CBM distribution is complex, which has the central and western NNE-trending high gas content zones along the syncline hinge zone and the reverse faults. The geological structure controls on CBM enrichment are definite and important. Based on geological structure features and responses of gas content, methane concentration, and gas content gradient, the gas controlling patterns of geological structure are determined and can be classified into five types: the reverse fault sealing, syncline sealing, monoclinal enrichment, normal fault dispersion, and buried floor fault dispersion types. The structural compression above the neutral surface plays an important role in the syncline sealing process, which is indicated by an increase in gas content gradient. The EW-trending tectonic intense compression and dextral shear action in the Himalayan movement avoided the negative inversion of NNE-trending Yanshanian compressive structure and its destruction of CBM reservoir. However, the chronic uplift and derived normal fault during Himalayan period caused the constant dissipation of CBM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]