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The industrial sector accounts for more than one-third of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the sector, the chemical industry makes up nearly 30% of global industrial energy consumption. In this study, a framework is developed to apply bottom-up energy modelling for analyzing energy efficiency improvement and GHG mitigation potential in the chemical sector. Also, techno-economic and policy analyses are used to analyze the applicability and economic performance of different mid- to long-term energy efficiency measures. The comprehensive, data-intensive, and technology-rich model is flexible and can be used to study the GHG mitigation potential in different regions. A case study was conducted for Alberta, one of the biggest industrial hubs in Canada, using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning model. Twenty-eight GHG mitigation scenarios in the petrochemical and fertilizer industries (the two major chemical industry sub-sectors) were developed. The costs of implementing each mitigation measure were calculated and used to develop cost curves. The results suggest that cumulative mitigation potential from the chemical industry would be 7.1 and 29.7 megatonnes CO 2 equivalent in the periods ending 2030 and 2050, respectively. We also found that more than 75% of the emissions reductions are achievable with negative cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research is to model the market penetration of energy efficient appliances in the residential sector. The analysis focuses on six major appliances – refrigerators, freezers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, and ranges – to forecast their market penetration and market share during the years 2012–2050. Models were developed for each category using 22 years of historical data related to population, household income, immigration, and appliance price. These variables were selected based on the statistical tests of twelve macroeconomic variables. The market shares of high efficiency appliances were analyzed based on the related capital costs, operating costs, lifetime, and incentive. The results show that in Alberta the market penetration growth rate of dishwashers is higher than that of all other appliances, with a projected 30.52% increase between 2012 and 2050. The modeling results also indicate that the average annual energy consumption by refrigerators will decrease from 560.9 kWh in 2012 to 460.8 kWh in 2050, and this decrease indicates an annual energy efficiency improvement of 0.47%. In addition, the effect of an incentive on adopting high energy efficiency appliances and ultimately on energy efficiency improvement in Alberta is more effective for dishwashers and clothes washers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The cement industry is responsible for between 5% and 9% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The increasing trend of GHG emissions from cement sector highlights the importance of GHG mitigation in this industry. In the current study, bottom-up energy modelling and scenario analyses were used to assess long-term GHG mitigation potential in the cement industry. The developed comprehensive, data-intensive, and technology-rich model is flexible and can be used to study the GHG mitigation potential in different regions. For the case study of Canada, a reference scenario along with 20 GHG emissions' reduction scenarios were developed in the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. For each scenario, cumulative energy saving and GHG reduction potential were analyzed. Furthermore, the net present value, cost of saved energy, and carbon were calculated to assess the economic performance of different scenarios. Carbon abatement cost curves were also developed using the GHG mitigation potential and the cost of implementing different energy efficiency options. Overall, compared to the reference scenario, the cumulative GHG mitigation potentials in the Canadian cement sector are 27 and 59 million tonnes CO 2 eq. by the years 2030 and 2050, respectively. More than 70% of the emissions' reduction is achievable with negative cost. Highlights • A bottom-up and technology-rich model is developed for the cement industry. • Energy consumption demand tree is used to analyze the energy intense sub-processes. • 20 scenarios are developed to assess the long-term energy saving and GHG mitigation. • Carbon abatement cost curves are developed to rank energy saving options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Process-level energy efficiency improvement is regarded as an effective technique for emissions reduction from the petroleum refining industry. Assessing the systems-level impacts of these energy efficiency improvements is crucial for effective long-term climate change policy- and decision-making. In this study, we developed a framework that integrates process simulation with integrated resource planning and techno-economic assessment techniques to evaluate long-term GHG mitigation potential in the refining sector. Detailed process simulations were done for eleven energy efficiency improvement measures in the refining sector. A case study was conducted for Alberta's (a province in western Canada) refining sector to assess GHG emissions reduction potential and their implications for long-term climate change policy-making. The GHG mitigation scenarios considered time horizons to the years 2030 and 2050. The results show that compared to the reference scenario, integrating the energy efficiency options in the refining sector will result in cumulative emissions reduction of 5%. About 60% of the anticipated emissions reductions are economically attractive. The proposed framework is an effective tool for the evaluation of long-term refining sector GHG mitigation potential and can be used for decision-making and policy formulation at various levels. • A framework is developed to assess GHG mitigation potential in the refining sector. • Process simulation, economic analysis, and energy planning models are integrated. • 22 mitigation scenarios are developed in time horizons ending in 2030 and 2050. • GHG mitigation potential is calculated and GHG abatement cost curves are developed. • 60% of the GHG emissions reductions are found to be economically attractive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]