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Causal machine learning (ML) algorithms recover graphical structures that tell us something about cause-and-effect relationships. The causal representation provided by these algorithms enables transparency and explainability, which is necessary for decision making in critical real-world problems. Yet, causal ML has had limited impact in practice compared to associational ML. This paper investigates the challenges of causal ML with application to COVID-19 UK pandemic data. We collate data from various public sources and investigate what the various structure learning algorithms learn from these data. We explore the impact of different data formats on algorithms spanning different classes of learning, and assess the results produced by each algorithm, and groups of algorithms, in terms of graphical structure, model dimensionality, sensitivity analysis, confounding variables, predictive and interventional inference. We use these results to highlight open problems in causal structure learning and directions for future research. To facilitate future work, we make all graphs, models, data sets, and source code publicly available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several feature selection methods have been developed to extract the optimal features from a dataset in medical datasets classification. Creating an efficient technique has become a challenge because of the high dimensions, noise, and redundant information. In this paper, we propose a hybrid filter-wrapper approach for feature selection. An ensemble of filter methods, ReliefF and Fuzzy Entropy (RFE) is developed, and the union of top-n features from each method are considered. The Equilibrium Optimizer (EO) technique is combined with Opposition Based Learning (OBL), Cauchy Mutation operator and a novel search strategy to enhance its capabilities. The OBL strategy improves the diversity of the population in the search space. The Cauchy Mutation operator enhances its ability to evade the local optima during the search, and the novel search strategy improves the exploration capability of the algorithm. This enhanced form of EO is integrated with eight time-varying S and V-shaped transfer functions to convert the solutions into binary form, Binary Enhanced Equilibrium Optimizer (BEE). The features from the ensemble are given as input to the Binary Enhanced Equilibrium Optimizer to extract the essential features. Fuzzy KNN based on Bonferroni mean is used as the learning algorithm. Twenty-two benchmark datasets and four microarray datasets are used to test the algorithm's efficiency. This method is also applied to a COVID-19 case study. The results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach, RFE-BEE, among other methods in terms of fitness values, accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and F-measure, among several other state-of-the-art algorithms. RFE-BEE can be applied to various biomedical, computer vision and engineering applications such as electromyography pattern recognition, COVID-19 diagnosis, face recognition and fault diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To manage the propagation of infectious diseases, particularly fast-spreading pandemics, it is necessary to provide information about possible infected places and individuals, however, it needs diagnostic tests and is time-consuming and expensive. To smooth these issues, and motivated by the current Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in this paper, we propose a learning-based system and a hidden Markov model (i) to assess hazardous places of a contagious disease, and (ii) to predict the probability of individuals' infection. To this end, we track the trajectories of individuals in an environment. For evaluating the models and the approaches, we use the Covid-19 outbreak in an urban environment as a case study. Individuals in a closed population are explicitly represented by their movement trajectories over a period of time. The simulation results demonstrate that by adjusting the communicable disease parameters, the detector system and the predictor system are able to correctly assess the hazardous places and determine the infection possibility of individuals and cluster them accurately with high probability, i.e., on average more than 96%. In general, the proposed approaches to assessing hazardous places and predicting the infection possibility of individuals can be applied to contagious diseases by tailoring them to the influential features of the disease. • Utilizing the movement trajectories of individuals in a city to manage infection disease. • Proposing a learning-based system to assess hazardous places of a contagious disease. • Proposing a hidden Markov model to predict the probability of individuals infection. • Applying the Covid-19 outbreak in an urban environment as a case study. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To manage the propagation of infectious diseases, particularly fast-spreading pandemics, it is necessary to provide information about possible infected places and individuals, however, it needs diagnostic tests and is time-consuming and expensive. To smooth these issues, and motivated by the current Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in this paper, we propose a learning-based system and a hidden Markov model (i) to assess hazardous places of a contagious disease, and (ii) to predict the probability of individuals' infection. To this end, we track the trajectories of individuals in an environment. For evaluating the models and the approaches, we use the Covid-19 outbreak in an urban environment as a case study. Individuals in a closed population are explicitly represented by their movement trajectories over a period of time. The simulation results demonstrate that by adjusting the communicable disease parameters, the detector system and the predictor system are able to correctly assess the hazardous places and determine the infection possibility of individuals and cluster them accurately with high probability, i.e., on average more than 96%. In general, the proposed approaches to assessing hazardous places and predicting the infection possibility of individuals can be applied to contagious diseases by tailoring them to the influential features of the disease. • Utilizing the movement trajectories of individuals in a city to manage infection disease. • Proposing a learning-based system to assess hazardous places of a contagious disease. • Proposing a hidden Markov model to predict the probability of individuals infection. • Applying the Covid-19 outbreak in an urban environment as a case study. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the rapid technological advances that have been made over the years, more people are changing their way of living from traditional ways of doing business to those featuring greater use of electronic resources. This transition has attracted (and continues to attract) the attention of cybercriminals, referred to in this article as "attackers", who make use of the structure of the Internet to commit cybercrimes, such as phishing, in order to trick users into revealing sensitive data, including personal information, banking and credit card details, IDs, passwords, and more important information via replicas of legitimate websites of trusted organizations. In our digital society, the COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented situation. As a result, many individuals were left vulnerable to cyberattacks while attempting to gather credible information about this alarming situation. Unfortunately, by taking advantage of this situation, specific attacks associated with the pandemic dramatically increased. Regrettably, cyberattacks do not appear to be abating. For this reason, cyber-security corporations and researchers must constantly develop effective and innovative solutions to tackle this growing issue. Although several anti-phishing approaches are already in use, such as the use of blacklists, visuals, heuristics, and other protective solutions, they cannot efficiently prevent imminent phishing attacks. In this paper, we propose machine learning models that use a limited number of features to classify COVID-19-related domain names as either malicious or legitimate. Our primary results show that a small set of carefully extracted lexical features, from domain names, can allow models to yield high scores; additionally, the number of subdomain levels as a feature can have a large influence on the predictions. • A method to detect cyberattacks in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. • An efficient feature set for the fast detection of COVID-19 malicious domain names. • Knowledge of the entire URL is not required to prevent an attack. • The number of subdomains as a feature can highly influence the chosen model. • Examining the effectiveness of both batch and online learning approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared on 11th March 2020 the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic. The traditional infectious disease surveillance had failed to alert public health authorities to intervene in time and mitigate and control the COVID-19 before it became a pandemic. Compared with traditional public health surveillance, harnessing the rich data from social media, including Twitter, has been considered a useful tool and can overcome the limitations of the traditional surveillance system. This paper proposes an intelligent COVID-19 early warning system using Twitter data with novel machine learning methods. We use the natural language processing (NLP) pre-training technique, i.e., fine-tuning BERT as a Twitter classification method. Moreover, we implement a COVID-19 forecasting model through a Twitter-based linear regression model to detect early signs of the COVID-19 outbreak. Furthermore, we develop an expert system, an early warning web application based on the proposed methods. The experimental results suggest that it is feasible to use Twitter data to provide COVID-19 surveillance and prediction in the US to support health departments' decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Propose an innovative Bayesian model to control the risk of COVID-19 patients. • Propose two indicators to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model. • Provide the tool for risk assessment in the field of epidemics. In the context of the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), this paper proposes an innovative and systematic decision support model based on Bayesian networks (BNs) to identify and control the risk of COVID-19 patients spreading the virus, which requires the following three steps. First, by consulting the related literature and combining this with expert knowledge, we identify and classify the characteristics (risk factors) of COVID-19 and obtain a conceptual framework for COVID-19 Risk Assessment Bayesian Networks (CRABNs). Second, data on COVID-19 patients with expert scoring results on patient risk levels were collected from hospitals in Hubei Province of China and are used as the training set, and the structure and parameters of the CRABNs model are obtained through machine learning. Finally, we propose two indicators, namely, Model Bias and Model Accuracy, and use the remaining data to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the CRABNs model to ensure that there are no significant differences between the predicted results of the model and the actual results provided by experts who have relevant experience in treating COVID-19. At the same time, we compared the CRABNs model with the support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and k-nearest neighbour (KNN) models through four indicators: accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and F-score. The results suggest the reliability of the model and show that it has promising application potential. The proposed model can be used globally by doctors in hospitals as a decision support tool to improve the accuracy of assessing the severity of COVID-19 symptoms in patients. Furthermore, with the further improvement of the model in the future, it can be used for risk assessments in the field of epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Two-phase training algorithm able to boost the Machine Learning accuracy. • Accurate bankruptcy prediction up to 60 months by a Machine Learning algorithm. • Integration of the Machine Learning algorithm in a DSS for policy making. • Test of the DSS on the Italian SMEs, with a focus on the COVID-19 effects. In the field of detection and prediction of company defaults and bankruptcy, significant effort has been devoted to evaluating financial ratios as predictors using statistical models and machine learning techniques. This problem becomes crucially important when financial decision-makers are provided with predictions on which to act, based on the output of prediction models. However, research has shown that such predictors are sufficiently accurate in the short-term, with the focus mainly directed towards large and medium-large companies. In contrast, in this paper, we focus on mid- and long-term bankruptcy prediction (up to 60 months) targeting small and/or medium enterprises. The key contribution of this study is a substantial improvement of the prediction accuracy in the short-term (12 months) using machine learning techniques, compared to the state-of-the-art, while also making accurate mid- and long-term predictions (measure of the area under the ROC curve of 0.88 with a 60 month prediction horizon). Extensive computational tests on the entire set of companies in Italy highlight the efficiency and accuracy of the developed method, as well as demonstrating the possibility of using it as a tool for the development of strategies and policies for entire economic systems. Considering the recent COVID-19 pandemic, we show how our method can be used as a viable tool for large-scale policy-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]