Search

This paper is devoted to applications of the "Extremum" loss simulation system to two damaging earthquakes which occurred in Croatia in 2020. We provide a calibration procedure of mathematical models used for shaking intensity simulation. The regional macroseismic field parameters, such as the coefficients in the macroseismic field equation; the ratio between the longer (b) and the shorter (a) axes of the higher elliptical isoseismals (the flattening ratio k); the angle that specifies the orientation of the macroseismic field, in particular, the azimuth of the longer axis in the isoseismal ellipse, were all based on extensive macroseismic data acquired for the Balkan region and on the data for an analogous area with similar seismotectonic parameters in the Caucasus. We obtained a fairly good consistency between the results of simulation applied to the impact of the 2020 Croatia earthquakes and observations, confirming that the calibration of the macroseismic model by the Extremum system was both reasonable and effective for enhancing reliability for real time loss estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper concerns the structural identification of historical masonry buildings with reference to a case study, which is discussed in detail. The building is located in Southern Italy (Lecce). It has an ancient vaulted roof that is complex and commonly found in old masonry structures. This study takes advantage of extensive historical and structural investigations of the building. Preliminary activities have been conducted to obtain information about the current state of the structure including the geometry, morphology, structural details, material properties, prior interventions, and existing damage. This process was supported by an historical investigation into the conceptual background and construction methods used to build the structure. After the historical investigation, a series of experiments, including dynamic tests, were conducted on a number of the vaults to determine their dynamic response characteristics under operational conditions. A numerical model was also determined. In this paper, the primary dynamic test results and modeling assumptions are reported. Comparisons between numerical and experimental results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis of Bošković's early paper concerned with the polar light (aurora borealis) gives an insight into the validity of the mathematical method which the young Bošković applied to significant geophysical phenomena in order to comprehend their nature. Based on the given data, we have examined numerical results about the height of atmosphere and the heights of the auroras which were observed over Europe in 1726 and in 1737. In his text there is not a single mathematical formula. Following his instructions we have derived a formula which may be used to determine the distance of an aurora by observing it from one station. For the assumed aurora model, his method is applicable. We find that described ideas on the physical cause of aurora, conceived in a fluid coming from the sun, have elements of modern knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique is experimented for improving day to day rainfall forecast over India in short to medium range time scale during summer monsoon of 2010. Four operational global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models namely, ECMWF, JMA, NCEP GFS and UKMO available on real time basis at India meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi are used simultaneously with appropriate weights to obtain the MME Technique. In this technique, weights for each NWP model at each grid point is assigned on the basis of the correlation coefficient (CC) between model forecasts and observed daily rainfall time series of south west monsoon (JJAS) season. Apart from MME, a simple ensemble mean (ENSM) forecast are also generated and experimented. The rainfall prediction skill of the weighted MME is examined against ENSM and member models. The inter-comparison reveals that the weighted MME is able to provide more accurate forecast of rainfall over Indian monsoon region by taking the strength of each constituent member model. It has been further found that the rainfall prediction skill of MME is higher as compared to ENSM and member models in the short range time scale. The rainfall prediction skill of weighted MME technique improved significantly over India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]