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Pulsing storms and prolonged rainfall can drive hydrological damaging events in mountain regions with soil erosion and debris flow in river catchments. The paper presents a parsimonious model for estimating climate forcing on sediment loads in an Alpine catchment (Rio Cordon, northeastern Italian Alps). Hydroclimatic forcing was interpreted by the novel CliSM SSL (Climate-Scale Modelling of Suspended Sediment Load) model to estimate annual sediment loads. We used annual data on suspended-solid loads monitored at an experimental station from 1987 to 2001 and on monthly precipitation data. The quality of sediment load data was critically examined, and one outlying year was identified and removed from further analyses. This outlier revealed that our model underestimates exceptionally high sediment loads in years characterized by a severe flood event. For all other years, the CliSM SSL performed well, with a determination coefficient ( R 2 ) equal to 0.67 and a mean absolute error ( MAE ) of 129 Mg y −1 . The calibrated model for the period 1986–2010 was used to reconstruct sediment loads in the river catchment for historical times when detailed precipitation records are not available. For the period 1810–2010, the model results indicate that the past centuries have been characterized by large interannual to interdecadal fluctuations in the conditions affecting sediment loads. This paper argues that climate-induced erosion processes in Alpine areas and their impact on environment should be given more attention in discussions about climate-driven strategies. Future work should focus on delineating the extents of these findings (e.g., at other catchments of the European Alpine belt) as well as investigating the dynamics for the formation of sediment loads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neither the concepts of antecedence nor superposition from an overlying sedimentary surface can explain many drainage networks that traverse ranges in the Basin and Range geomorphic province of the western U.S. Rather, much of the regional drainage network growth has resulted from pluvial lake overflows and basin breaching, causing episodic extensions of the trunk streams in a downstream direction. In this model, the primary role of sediment is to reduce basin volumes, thus increasing the chances of basin breaching by overflow. After basin breaching, a significant base-level drop often results, which leads to the erosion and recycling of sediments, and drainage network permanency. Therefore, remnants of basin fills reaching rim elevations, and other evidence of superposition are unlikely. Drainage network evolution appears to be closely tied to the large Plio-Pleistocene climatic shifts, suggesting that regional drainage integration in the Basin and Range is most likely a Pliocene or Quaternary phenomenon. • Sediment recycling accelerates the growth of river systems in closed basins. • Climate changes accelerate the growth of river systems in closed basins. • Young river networks grow downstream in a mostly random stepwise method. • The first paper to propose lake-overflow for the Colorado River system after 1934. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coastal mountain system (CMS) of southeastern China has been a natural place to study paleotopographic changes primarily due to its marked topographical contrast since the Late Cretaceous. For a quantitative reconstruction of the paleotopographic evolution of the CMS, this paper provides key information from along the Ningde–Jianyang and Huilai–Longchuan cross-sections using apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe) and zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) data combined with thermal history and paleotopographic modeling. For the Ningde–Jianyang section, the AHe dates are in the range of 44.3–70.8 Ma, and the ZHe dates are between 58.5 and 102.9 Ma. For the Huilai–Longchuan section, the resulting AHe dates are in the range of 37.9–73.8 Ma, and ZHe dates are between 65.5 and 119.7 Ma. The modeling results suggest that: 1) the CMS had an asymmetric topography during the Late Cretaceous with the SE segment being significantly higher (peak elevation = 3.8 km) than the NW segment (peak elevation = ~2 km). The marked decreases in elevation and relief of the CMS occurred during 80–40 Ma, followed by relatively minor topographic changes since ~40–30 Ma; 2) The SE segment of the southern CMS experienced significantly faster exhumation (~0.44 km/Myr) than northern CMS (0.16 km/Myr) during 70–60 Ma, which was probably related to thinning of the crust and orogenic collapse linked to the initial-rifting of the South China Sea; 3) The SE segment of southern CMS experienced slower exhumation than northern CMS during 60–40 Ma, likely resulting from the lower elevations in the southern CMS than in the northern CMS during 60–40 Ma. • The coastal mountain system forms a climatic boundary in southeastern China. • Thermochronological data collected along two horizontal transects. • Transect thermochronology results used for topography modeling. • Rapid exhumation from 70-60 Ma along the south 2-D transect linked to rifting. • Rapid exhumation from 60–40 Ma along the north 2-D transect linked to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) have become increasingly common over the past century in response to climate change, posing risks for human activities in many mountain regions. In this paper we document and reconstruct the sequence of events and impact of a large GLOF that took place in December 2015 in the Chileno Valley, Patagonia. Hydrograph data suggests that the flood continued for around eight days with an estimated total discharge of 105.6 × 106 m3 of water. The sequence of events was as follows: (1) A large debris flow entered the lake from two steep and largely non-vegetated mountain gullies located northeast of the Chileno Glacier terminus. (2) Water displaced in the lake by the debris flow increased the discharge through the Chileno Lake outflow. (3) Lake and moraine sediments were eroded by the flood. (4) Eroded sediments were redistributed downstream by the GLOF. The post-GLOF channel at the lake outlet widened in some places by >130 m and the surface elevation of the terrain lowered by a maximum of 38.8 ± 1.5 m. Farther downstream, large amounts of entrained sediment were deposited at the head of an alluvial plain and these sediments produced an ~340 m wide fan with an average increase in surface elevation over the pre-GLOF surface of 4.6 ± 1.5 m. We estimate that around 3.5 million m3 of material was eroded from the flood-affected area whilst over 0.5 million m3 of material was deposited in the downstream GLOF fan. The large debris flow that triggered the GLOF was probably a paraglacial response to glacier recession from its Little Ice Age limits. We suggest that GLOFs will continue to occur in these settings in the future as glaciers further recede in response to global warming and produce potentially unstable lakes. Detailed studies of GLOF events are currently limited in Patagonia and the information presented here will therefore help to inform future glacial hazard assessments in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining effects of climate change on landscapes involves numerous uncertainties. This paper presents and illustrates a protocol for climate attribution of landscape responses. The major steps are ascertaining potential climate-related responses, establishing plausibility for a climatic influence, identifying alternative or additional causes, testing possible climate and non-climate causes, and interpreting the role of climate and climate change in the landscape response. The protocol is based on existing practice in the historical and interpretive branches of Earth and ecological sciences, and explicitly considers negative (non-confirmatory) results for climate and other factors. The protocol is applied to the conversion of brackish marsh to open water in the upper Neuse River estuary, North Carolina. Conversion since at least the mid twentieth century can be attributed to relative sea-level rise, driven primarily by general climate warming, with no supporting evidence for any additional or alternative drivers. The only other factor with supporting evidence is human modification in the form of ditches, around which conversion was concentrated, though marsh loss also occurred in unditched portions. Rapid recent marsh loss is attributable to Hurricane Florence (2018), particularly the storm surge. Weak positive inferential support exists for a role of climate change in the storm, but aspects of the storm's impact not linked to climate are more important for the marsh conversions. Overall, the landscape response can be linked to climate, exacerbated by direct human impacts of marsh ditching, and strongly influenced by local place factors and the specific storm track. Recent and ongoing climate change is a significant factor, but not paramount, in determining the landscape response. The Neuse River case study is not unusual—and is probably typical—in identifying a combination of climate and other factors strongly influencing landscape response. [Display omitted] • Attributing landscape responses to climate change presents numerous complexities. • Landscape response attribution protocol based on traditional geomorphic approaches • LRA protocol applied to recent conversion of estuarine marsh to open water • Marsh loss due to sea-level rise & major storm, but non-climate factors important • LRA protocol useful to identify & evaluate climate & non-climate drivers of change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fluvial archives in the upper-reach Yellow River basins provide important information about drainage history of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) associated with geomorphologic evolution and climate change. However, the Pliocene fluvial strata within this region have not been studied in detail, hence limiting the understanding of the late Cenozoic development of regional fluvial systems. In this paper, we present the results of a study of the geochronology, sedimentology, and provenance of the fluvial sequence of the Wuquan Formation in the Lanzhou Basin in the northeastern TP. Magnetostratigraphic and cosmogenic nuclide burial ages indicate that the Wuquan Formation was deposited during 3.6–2.2 Ma. Furthermore, sedimentary facies, gravel composition, paleocurrent data, and detrital zircon U Pb age spectra reveal that the fluvial sequence resembles the terraces of the Yellow River in terms of source area, flow direction, and depositional environment. Our results indicate that a paleo-drainage system flowing out of the northeastern TP was established by ca. 3.6 Ma and that the upstream parts of the Yellow River must have developed subsequently from this paleo-drainage system. The late Pliocene drainage system fits well with the dramatic uplift of the northeastern TP, an intensified Asian summer monsoon, and global increase in erosion rates, which may reflect interactions between geomorphic evolution, tectonic deformation, and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Anthropocene embodies the concept of human impacts on the natural environment, but disagreements exist as to when to identify its inception/starting date. In this paper I illustrate that regardless of the proposed starting date of the Anthropocene, important zoogeomorphic impacts were initiated at each of these proposed starting dates. Humans have profoundly altered geomorphic pathways through extinctions and the near-extirpation of native populations of animal species that strongly influenced hydrology and removal of surface sediment and through the introduction of populations of animals that bring to bear a suite of different geomorphic effects on environmental systems. Domestication of animals brought its own suite of zoogeomorphic implications. Introductions of exotic species, and the spread of feral species, often led to dramatic new geomorphic landscapes because of the absence of natural controls on population expansion. In the mountains of the western USA and elsewhere, the geomorphic actions of animals are being impacted by human-induced climate change. Climate change in some cases affects the spatial pattern and range of species, whereas in other cases it may lead to the extirpation of species with zoogeomorphic impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Along the North Adriatic Sea coast (Italy), vulnerability to climate change is further aggravated by anthropogenic influences, such as strong subsidence rate due to deep groundwater and gas abstraction, tourism and industry impacts. In this context, conservation and restoration of coastal sand dunes become extremely important especially because of their importance in terms of ‘natural’ coastal defense. This paper proposes an innovative geomorphological approach based on Terrestrial Laser Scanning - TLS, which allows us to measure and monitor morphometric dune evolution with high precision and details. Several TLS surveys were performed along the Ravenna coast (Adriatic Sea, Italy) and the resulting Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) were analyzed in order to classify the foredune ridges in three geomorphological sub-zones. The topographic, areal and volumetric variations over time of geomorphological units were calculated by GIS tools in order to identify seasonal trends or particular pattern. Meteo-marine climate conditions were also analyzed and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed to correlate changes in morphology with meteo-marine forcing factors, highlighting the ones that most influence dune evolution and dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to impact discharge and sediment yield in watersheds. The purpose of this paper is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water discharge and sediment yield for the Yi'an watershed of the black soil region, northeastern China, based on the newly released Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) during 2071–2099. For this purpose, the TETIS model was implemented to simulate the hydrological and sedimentological responses to climate change. The model calibration (1971–1977) and validation (1978–1987) performances were rated as satisfactory. The modeling results for the four RCP scenarios relative to the control scenario under the same land use configuration indicated an increase in discharge of 16.3% (RCP 2.6), 14.3% (RCP 4.5), 36.7% (RCP 6.0) and 71.4% (RCP 8.5) and an increase in the sediment yield of 16.5% (RCP 2.6), 32.4% (RCP 4.5), 81.8% (RCP 6.0) and 170% (RCP 8.5). This implies that the negative impact of climate change on sediment yield is generally greater than that on discharge. At the monthly scale, both discharge and sediment yield increased dramatically in April to June and August to September. A more vigorous hydrological cycle and an increase in high values of sediment yield are also expected. These changes in annual discharge and sediment yield were closely linked with changes in precipitation, whereas monthly changes in late spring and autumn were mainly related to temperature. This study highlights the possible adverse impact of climate change on discharge and sediment yield in the black soil region of northeastern China and could provide scientific basis for adaptive management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper investigates the morphodynamic reaction of a schematic river to a perturbation of the sediment input imposed at its upstream end. The consequent evolution of the initially equilibrium river can be studied by means of various models (0-dimensional; 1-D parabolic and 1-D hyperbolic with uniform sediments; 1-D hyperbolic with graded sediments), depending on the more or less simplified differential equations applied for describing the water and sediment motion. The paper discusses a number of analytical solutions obtained with two types of boundary conditions, namely: (i) stepwise change of the sediment input, very often connected to anthropogenic actions, and (ii) sinusoidal input variation with prescribed period, typically associated to the meteorological cycles (short period) or to the geological and climate change (long period). The solutions provide an explicit expression for the Response Time of the river for the condition (i) and the Attenuation Length of the river for the condition (ii). The two quantities as defined in this paper do have a specific physical meaning, strictly connected with the corresponding boundary conditions, which measures the reactivity of the river to external disturbances. A comparative application of the analytical solutions to various (prevalently large) rivers of the world is given, together with a final discussion. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The presence of angular bedrock-derived debris on mountain summits worldwide has usually been associated with present or past periglacial frost shattering, thermal fracturing and other climatically-mediated weathering processes. Climatic inferences are commonly made based on such geomorphological evidence, even if frost shattering and other processes are unlikely under present climatic conditions. This paper questions this assumed genetic link between present/past climate and production of angular bedrock-derived debris by describing the geomorphological impacts of lightning strikes on exposed mountain summits. Using examples from the high Drakensberg of eastern Lesotho, southern Africa, the impacts of lightning strikes are described, which include the generation of angular, fractured bedrock-derived debris. These impacts are identified in the field based on clear and unambiguous criteria that can be used to distinguish between lightning-induced weathering processes and those processes associated with ‘more typical’ alpine weathering. This paper argues that lightning strikes are an important geomorphic agent of, in particular, low-latitude mountain summits, and that to make uncritical climatic inferences based on the presence of ‘frost shattered debris’ on mountain summits is wholly erroneous. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The late Quaternary loess and loess-like deposits in Kashmir Valley are natural archives that have preserved paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental records of the region. We present a loess-like paleosol located along the margin of the Manasbal Lake, Ganderbal, which was studied in detail for understanding the pedological processes and reconstructing the late Quaternary soil formation. In this paper we present loess-like paleosol formation of a nearly 10.6 m thick sequence exposed along the margin of Manasbal Lake, Ganderbal District, Srinagar, Kashmir. Geochemical and textural data of this loess-like sedimentary sequence fluctuate reflecting the varied depositional processes operating in the valley, differential intensity of weathering, and processes of pedogenesis. Weathering indices such as chemical index of alteration, chemical index of weathering, and plagioclase index of alteration reveal weak to moderate weathering of the parent material. Provenance discrimination diagrams of the present study disclose that the Manasbal loess-like paleosol sediments are derived from the mixed source rocks suggesting a variety of provenance with variable geological settings, which apparently have undergone weak to moderate recycling processes. The Manasbal paleosol horizons have been dated by the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) method to the marine isotope stages mid-MIS-3 (41.7 ± 8.0 ka) and late-MIS-2 (14.6 ± 3.8 ka). During the MIS-3 period, the climate was wetter, forming a strong AhBtk paleosol as inferred from the geochemical data. A steady increase in the CaCO3 content and C/N ratio in the paleosols from 6.50 m (MIS-3) indicates arid and drier climatic conditions. The area around Manasbal Lake incised because of climate change and neotectonic activity since post-14 ka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern Africa is located in a unique setting for investigating past cold climate geomorphology over glacial-interglacial timescales. It lies at the junction of three of the world's major oceans and is affected by subtropical and temperate circulation systems, therefore recording changes in Southern Hemisphere circulation patterns. Cold climate landforms are very sensitive to changes in climate and thus provide an opportunity to investigate past changes in this region. The proposed existence of glaciers in the high Eastern Cape Drakensberg mountains, together with possible rock glaciers, has led to the suggestion that temperatures in this region were as much as 10–17 °C lower than present. Such large temperature depressions are inconsistent with many other palaeoclimatic proxies in Southern Africa. This paper presents new field observations and cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages from putative cold climate landforms. We discuss alternative interpretations for the formation of the landforms and confirm that glaciers were absent in the Eastern Cape Drakensberg during the last glaciation. However, we find widespread evidence for periglacial activity down to an elevation of ~ 1700 m asl, as illustrated by extensive solifluction deposits, blockstreams, and stone garlands. These periglacial deposits suggest that the climate was significantly colder (~ 6 °C) during the Last Glacial Maximum, in keeping with other climate proxy records from the region, but not cold enough to initiate or sustain glaciers or rock glaciers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proglacial areas represent the counterpart of glacial retreat, where a new environmental equilibrium will be reached. During this long and complex stage, which represents the response to ongoing climate change, several abiotic and biotic processes occur in these freshly exposed fragile environments. Proglacial areas, considered as open-air laboratories, have been attracting the attention of scientists in the last decades, and the diversity of their features allows us to classify them based on different aspects of geodiversity (i.e., bedrock diversity, geomorphodiversity, hydrogeodiversity, pedodiversity). In this paper, we review the diversity of features of proglacial areas using several examples mainly from the European Alps. The geosystem services (i.e., regulating, supporting, provisioning and cultural) provided by these areas to society are also discussed, revealing the value of these regions as part of geoheritage. As these fragile and vulnerable areas are highly relevant to society, it is important to monitor them, and to set up adequate management strategies, including geoconservation, but also sustainable promotion. • Proglacial areas are featured by a great geodiversity. • Geodiversity of proglacial areas depends on water, rocks, landforms and soils. • Geodiversity influences biodiversity in proglacial areas. • Proglacial areas provide geosystem services in virtue of their geodiversity. • Proglacial areas are geoheritage elements to be preserved and promoted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to connect the Large Scale Coastal Behaviour (LSCB) of the Rhône delta (shoreface sediment budget, river sediment input to the beaches, climatic change) with the impact and efficiency of hard engineering coastal structures. The analysis of the 1895 to 1974 bathymetric maps as well as 2D modelling of the effect of wave blocking on longshore transport allows us to draw up a conceptual model of the LSCB of the Rhône delta. The river sand input, settled in the mouth area (prodeltaic lobe), favours the advance of adjacent beaches. There is however a very weak alongshore sand feeding of the non-adjacent beaches farther off the mouth. After a mouth shift, the prodelta is eroded by aggressive waves and the sand is moved alongshore to build spits. This conceptual model suggests that there is a “timeshift” between the input of river sediments to the sea and the build up of a beach (nonadjacent to the mouth). Nowadays, as the river channels are controlled by dykes and human interventions, a river shift is not possible. It thus appears unlikely that the river sediments can supply the beaches of the Rhône delta coast. Under these conditions, we must expect that the problems of erosion will continue at Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer and on the Faraman shore, in areas with chronic erosion where the shoreline retreat has been partially stopped by hard engineering practices in the 1980s. Therefore, these artificially stabilised sectors remain potentially under threat because of profile steepening and downdrift erosion evidenced in this paper by bathymetric profile measurements. In the long-term (1905 to 2003), the temporal analysis of the storm surges and the sea level show very weak but reliable increasing trends. Thus, these climatic agents will be more aggressive on the beaches and on the coastal structures calling their efficiency into question. We also evidence that the hard engineering structures were built in a favourable climatic context during the 1980s meanwhile the storm surges and the sea-level rise are stronger since the 1990s. Regarding to the LSCB of the Rhône delta, and the impact of hard engineering coastal structures, we suggest that classical hard coastal protections are not the best option to protect the coast. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Global climate change may have a noticeable impact on the northern environment, leading to changes in permafrost, vegetation and fluvial morphology. In this paper we compare the results from three geomorphological models and study the potential effects of changing climatic factors on the river channel types in North-European Russia. Two of the selected models by Romashin [Romashin, V.V., 1968. Variations of the river channel types under governing factors, Annals of the Hydrological Institute, vol. 155. Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, pp. 56–63.] and Leopold and Wolman [Leopold, L.B., Wolman, M.G., 1957. River channel pattern: braided, meandering and straight, Physiographic and hydraulic studies of rivers. USA Geological Survey Professional Paper 252, pp. 85–98.] are conventional QS-type models, which predict the existence of either multi-thread or single-tread channel types using data on discharge and channel slope. The more advanced model by Van den Berg [Van den Berg, J.H., 1995. Prediction of alluvial channel pattern of perennial rivers. Geomorphology 12, 259–270.] takes into account the size of the sediment material. We used data from 16 runoff gauges to validate the models and predict the channel types at selected locations under modern and predicted for the future climatic conditions. Two of the three models successfully replicated the currently existing channel types in all but one of the studied sites. Predictive calculations under the hypothetical scenarios of 10%, 15%, 20% and 35% runoff increase gave different results. Van den Berg''s model predicted potential transformation of the channel types, from single- to multi-thread, at 4 of 16 selected locations in the next few decades, and at 5 locations by the middle of the 21st century. Each of the QS-type models predicted such transformation at one site only. Results of the study indicate that climatic warming in combination with other environmental changes may lead to transformation of the river channel types at selected locations in north-western Russia. Further efforts are needed to improve the performance of the fluvial geomorphological models and their ability to predict such changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper assesses river channel management activities in the context of the interaction between coarse sediment delivery, climate change, river channel response and flood risk. It uses two main sources of evidence: (1) an intensive instrumentation of an upland river catchment using both traditional hydrometric and novel sediment sensing methods; and (2) a sediment delivery model that combines a treatment of sediment generation from mass failure with a treatment of the connectivity of this failed material to the drainage network. The field instrumentation suggests that the precipitation events that deliver sediment from hillslopes to the drainage network are different to those that transfer sediment within the network itself. Extreme events, that could occur at any time in the year (i.e. they are not dependent on wet antecedent conditions), were crucial for sediment delivery. However, sustained high river flows were responsible for the majority of transfer within the river itself. Application of three downscaling methods to climate model predictions for the 2050s and 2080s suggested a significant increase in the number and potential volume of delivery events by the 2050s, regardless of the climate downscaling scenario used. First approximations suggested that this would translate into annual bed level aggradation rates of between 0.10 and 0.20 m per year in the downstream main channel reaches. Second, the importance of this delivery for flood risk studies was confirmed by simulating the effects of 16 months of measured in-channel simulation with river flows scaled for climate change to the 2050s and 2080s. Short-term sedimentation could result in similar magnitude increases in inundated area for 1 in 0.5 and 1 in 2 year floods to those predicted for the 2050s in relation to increases in flow magnitude. Finally, we were able to develop an alternative approach to river management in relation to coarse sediment delivery, based upon reducing the rates of coarse sediment delivery through highly localised woodland planting, under the assumption that reducing delivery rates should reduce the rate of channel migration and hence the magnitude of the bank erosion problem. Thus, the paper demonstrates the need to conceptualise local river management problems in upland river environments as point scale manifestations of a diffuse sediment delivery process, with a much more explicit focus on the catchment scale, if our river systems are to become more insulated from the impacts of future climate changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Landslides triggered by rainfall are the cause of thousands of deaths worldwide every year. One possible approach to limit the socioeconomic consequences of such events is the development of climatic thresholds for landslide initiation. In this paper, we propose a method that incorporates antecedent rainfall and streamflow data to develop a landslide initiation threshold for the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Hydroclimatic data were gathered for 18 storms that triggered landslides and 18 storms that did not. Discriminant function analysis separated the landslide-triggering storms from those storms that did not trigger landslides and selected the most meaningful variables that allow this separation. Discriminant functions were also developed for the landslide-triggering and nonlandslide-triggering storms. The difference of the discriminant scores, ΔCS, for both groups is a measure of landslide susceptibility during a storm. The variables identified that optimize the separation of the two storm groups are 4-week rainfall prior to a significant storm, 6-h rainfall during a storm, and the number of hours 1 m3/s discharge was exceeded at Mackay Creek during a storm. Three thresholds were identified. The Landslide Warning Threshold (LWT) is reached when ΔCS is −1. The Conditional Landslide Initiation Threshold (CTLI) is reached when ΔCS is zero, and it implies that landslides are likely if 4 mm/h rainfall intensity is exceeded at which point the Imminent Landslide Initiation Threshold (ITLI) is reached. The LWT allows time for the issuance of a landslide advisory and to move personnel out of hazardous areas. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other regions worldwide where type and quality of data are appropriate for this type of analysis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Coastal and estuarine landforms provide a physical template that not only accommodates diverse ecosystem functions and human activities, but also mediates flood and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. In this paper, we explore some of the issues associated with the conceptualisation and modelling of coastal morphological change at time and space scales relevant to managers and policy makers. Firstly, we revisit the question of how to define the most appropriate scales at which to seek quantitative predictions of landform change within an age defined by human interference with natural sediment systems and by the prospect of significant changes in climate and ocean forcing. Secondly, we consider the theoretical bases and conceptual frameworks for determining which processes are most important at a given scale of interest and the related problem of how to translate this understanding into models that are computationally feasible, retain a sound physical basis and demonstrate useful predictive skill. In particular, we explore the limitations of a primary scale approach and the extent to which these can be resolved with reference to the concept of the coastal tract and application of systems theory. Thirdly, we consider the importance of different styles of landform change and the need to resolve not only incremental evolution of morphology but also changes in the qualitative dynamics of a system and/or its gross morphological configuration. The extreme complexity and spatially distributed nature of landform systems means that quantitative prediction of future changes must necessarily be approached through mechanistic modelling of some form or another. Geomorphology has increasingly embraced so-called ‘reduced complexity’ models as a means of moving from an essentially reductionist focus on the mechanics of sediment transport towards a more synthesist view of landform evolution. However, there is little consensus on exactly what constitutes a reduced complexity model and the term itself is both misleading and, arguably, unhelpful. Accordingly, we synthesise a set of requirements for what might be termed ‘appropriate complexity modelling’ of quantitative coastal morphological change at scales commensurate with contemporary management and policy-making requirements: 1) The system being studied must be bounded with reference to the time and space scales at which behaviours of interest emerge and/or scientific or management problems arise; 2) model complexity and comprehensiveness must be appropriate to the problem at hand; 3) modellers should seek a priori insights into what kind of behaviours are likely to be evident at the scale of interest and the extent to which the behavioural validity of a model may be constrained by its underlying assumptions and its comprehensiveness; 4) informed by qualitative insights into likely dynamic behaviour, models should then be formulated with a view to resolving critical state changes; and 5) meso-scale modelling of coastal morphological change should reflect critically on the role of modelling and its relation to the observable world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the broad discourses of environmental change, sustainability science, and anthropogenic Earth-surface systems, a focused body of work involves the coupled economic and physical dynamics of developed shorelines. Rapid rates of change in coastal environments, from wetlands and deltas to inlets and dune systems, help researchers recognize, observe, and investigate coupling in natural (non-human) morphodynamics and biomorphodynamics. This same intrinsic quality of fast-paced change also makes developed coastal zones exemplars of observable coupling between physical processes and human activities. In many coastal communities, beach erosion is a natural hazard with economic costs that coastal management counters through a variety of mitigation strategies, including beach replenishment, groynes, revetments, and seawalls. As cycles of erosion and mitigation iterate, coastline change and economically driven interventions become mutually linked. Emergent dynamics of two-way economic–physical coupling is a recent research discovery. Having established a strong theoretical basis, research into coupled human–coastal systems has passed its early proof-of-concept phase. This paper frames three major challenges that need resolving in order to advance theoretical and empirical treatments of human–coastal systems: (1) codifying salient individual and social behaviors of decision-making in ways that capture societal actions across a range of scales (thus engaging economics, social science, and policy disciplines); (2) quantifying anthropogenic effects on alongshore and cross-shore sediment pathways and long-term landscape evolution in coastal zones through time, including direct measurement of cumulative changes to sediment cells resulting from coastal development and management practices (e.g., construction of buildings and artificial dunes, bulldozer removal of overwash after major storms); and (3) reciprocal knowledge and data exchange between researchers in coastal morphodynamics and practitioners of coastal management. Future research into human–coastal systems can benefit from decades of interdisciplinary work on the complex dynamics of common-pool resources, from computational efficiency and new techniques in numerical modeling, and from the growing catalog of high-resolution geospatial data for natural and developed coastlines around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within global environmental change research, certain external drivers generally are assumed to cause the environmental system to change. The most commonly considered drivers are relief, sea level, hydroclimate, and/or people. However, complexity theory and self-organizing systems provide a very different framework and means of explanation. Self-organization — understood as the aggregate processes internal to an environmental system that lead to a distinctive spatial, temporal, or other organization — reduces the possibility of implicating a specific process as being causal. The principle of equifinality, whereby two or more different drivers can generate the same form, has long been recognized within a process-response framework, as well as the concept of divergence, which states that similar causes or processes result in different effects. Both ideas differ from self-organization in that they (i) deal with drivers external to the system and (ii) imply concrete cause-and-effect relations that might be difficult to discern. The assumption is, however, that careful study will eventually lead to the true causes and processes. Studies of self-organization deal with the ways in which internal processes interact and may drive a system toward an instability threshold, the so-called bifurcation point. At this point, the system develops by chance and no single external or internal cause for the change can be defined. For research into environmental change this is a crucial theory for two reasons: • environmental reconstruction needs to take into account the possibility that past changes may have occurred without any change in the external drivers, and • current changes may also be entirely caused by internal system dynamics, reflecting processes arising from the interactions between the system components. Whilst some authors have inferred that environmental reconstruction is, in principle, impossible and that contemporary global environmental change is inscrutable, this paper concludes that such an argumentation is unnecessarily pessimistic. We argue that the focus on self-organization provides important caveats in relation to studies that attribute all environmental change to external drivers and that a multitude of independently existing geomorphological concepts — such as singularity, extrinsic and intrinsic thresholds, and sensitivity — can be well framed and combined within the concept of self-organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How can debris flow occurrences be modelled at regional scale and take both environmental and climatic conditions into account? And, of the two, which has the most influence on debris flow activity? In this paper, we try to answer these questions with an innovative Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic model that simultaneously accounts for how debris flows respond to environmental and climatic variables. In it, full decomposition of space and time effects in occurrence probabilities is assumed, revealing an environmental and a climatic trend shared by all years/catchments, respectively, clearly distinguished from residual “random” effects. The resulting regional and annual occurrence probabilities evaluated as functions of the covariates make it possible to weight the respective contribution of the different terms and, more generally, to check the model performances at different spatio-temporal scales. After suitable validation, the model can be used to make predictions at undocumented sites and could be used in further studies for predictions under future climate conditions. Also, the Bayesian paradigm easily copes with missing data, thus making it possible to account for events that may have been missed during surveys. As a case study, we extract 124 debris flow event triggered between 1970 and 2005 in 27 catchments located in the French Alps from the French national natural hazard survey and model their variability of occurrence considering environmental and climatic predictors at the same time. We document the environmental characteristics of each debris flow catchment (morphometry, lithology, land cover, and the presence of permafrost). We also compute 15 climate variables including mean temperature and precipitation between May and October and the number of rainy days with daily cumulative rainfall greater than 10/15/20/25/30/40 mm day − 1 . Application of our model shows that the combination of environmental and climatic predictors explained 77% of the overall variability of debris flow occurrences in this data set. Occurrence probabilities depend mainly on climatic variables, which explain 44% of the overall variability through the number of rainy days and maximum daily temperature. This important time component in the variability of overall debris flow occurrence is shown to be responsible for a significant increase in debris flow activity between 1970 and 2005 at regional scale. Environmental variables, which account for 33% of the overall variability, includes mostly the morphometric variables of the debris flow catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we evaluate morphological changes related to the Plan d'Arem dam (1970), a run-of-river (RoR) dam located on the Upper Garonne (central Pyrenees), and disentangle its morphological effects from other drivers (post-Little Ice Age [LIA] climate change, changes in agricultural practice, catchment afforestation, upstream damming, and bypassing). The work is based on a before-after-control-impact approach, a space-time framework that allowed the stating of four hypotheses distinguishing the effects of the considered dam from other pressures. We first examined the potential reduction to the flow regime ( Q L ) and bedload transport ( Q S ) from these pressures, then assessed planimetric changes (1942–2019), vertical evolution (1922–2014), and sediment size within the channel. The results show the river completed adjustments related to post-LIA climate change and catchment afforestation at the beginning of the study period, with channel narrowing affecting the whole study reach and ranging from 0.6% to 1.2% yr−1. Upstream dams and catchment afforestation reduced both the frequency and magnitude of peak flows and sediment supply, resulting in an increase in the channel narrowing rate on the upstream sub-reach (−1.2% yr−1). However, downstream tributaries buffered these changes, and no downstream propagation was found. The effects of the Plan d'Arem started around 15 yr after its construction, with channel narrowing at a rate of 0.9% yr−1 until the 2010s. The exceptional flood of June 2013 resulted in important channel widening followed by a new period of narrowing upstream of the Plan d'Arem dam, combined with channel stability downstream caused by a new dam management regime (flushing actions). We conclude that the before-after-control-impact approach is effective for isolating the effects of an RoR dam from those of other pressures, and that flushing actions mitigated the effects of the dam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The advent of global DEMs provided a uniform elevation dataset for studying geomorphic parameters in a variety of settings. In this paper ASTER DEM data (30-m pixel size) are used to derive empirical relationships between triangular facet attributes and slip rates along active normal faults. We sampled 232 triangular facets along 10 normal faults in Greece and Bulgaria that slip with rates from 0.1 mm/yr up to 1.3 mm/yr. The studied normal faults accumulate Quaternary tectonic strain in well-known extensional provinces, such as central Greece, Crete and SW Bulgaria. The normal fault footwalls analyzed herein have been developed under similar long-term climatic conditions. It is suggested that two key geometrical features of the youngest generation of triangular facets (slope angle and height) can provide useful metrics to assess rates of deformation when seismological and geodetic data are lacking or not found in sufficient quantity to make reasonable assessments. Our derived empirical relation between slip rate and facet slope angle is: Y = 0.057 × X − 1 where Y is the fault slip rate (mm/yr) and X is the facet slope angle (degrees), with an R 2 = 0.728. It is envisaged that our analysis may be helpful in assessing seismic hazard along normal faults with similar facet characteristics in other extensional settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely accepted that climate has a strong impact and exerts important feedbacks on erosional processes and sediment transport mechanisms. However, the extent at which climate influences erosion is still a matter of debate. In this paper we test whether frost-cracking processes and related temperature variations can influence the sediment production and surface erosion in a small catchment situated in the eastern Italian Alps. To this extent, we first present a geomorphic map of the region that we complement with published 10 Be-based denudation rates. We then apply a preexisting heat-flow model in order to analyze the variations of the frost-cracking intensity (FCI) in the study area, which could have controlled the sediment production in the basin. Finally, we compare the model results with the pattern of denudation rates and Quaternary deposits in the geomorphic map. The model results, combined with field observations, mapping, and quantitative geomorphic analyses, reveal that frost-cracking processes have had a primary role in the production of sediment where the intensity of sediment supply has been dictated and limited by the combined effect of temperature variations and conditions of bedrock preservation. These results highlight the importance of a yet poorly understood process for the production of sediment in mountain areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the description and genesis of a special type of shelter cave. In German they are termed Auswitterungshöhlen which goes back to the 19th century and the genesis is supposed to be related to frost weathering, but to our knowledge, detailed studies are missing so far. This type of cave is very common in the area of investigation that comprises pre-Alpine and Alpine regions in the north-eastern part of the Eastern Alps: They make up 32% of the 5138 registered caves but surprisingly they entirely developed in carbonate rocks. Although most of them are smaller than a dozen metres, some have lengths of more than 50 m and entrances can be more than 100 m wide or similarly high. Besides general observations that lead to a list of characteristics for these caves, two of them in a pre-Alpine setting were studied in-depth. A detailed map, descriptions, and measurements concerning cave morphology, host rock geology, and climate are given. The thickness and composition of clastic sediments were investigated by small trenches and electric resistivity measurements. Sediment thicknesses reach up to 2 m inside the caves and below the entrances. For one year nets were installed to measure rockfall in both caves. In warm periods generally less than 5 g/month of debris could be collected, but a few 100 g/month for frost periods. This strong correlation and the significant amount of debris together with other observations suggest that frost weathering is an on-going and very important process for the formation of these caves. Grain-size distribution of the collected debris argues for the activity of both microgelivation and ice segregation. Therefore we suggest that the term frost weathering caves should be used for shelter caves whose genesis is related to frost weathering. As dissolution seems to be of marginal importance for the genesis they are a paradox as they develop in karstic rock but have pseudokarst features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Matiali fan is a coarse-grained, small alluvial fan in the eastern Himalayan foothills. It co-exists side by side with the large Tista megafan and other Quaternary fluvial deposits, and has been affected by a number of young thrust faults. It is generally believed that tectonics is the main control in the deposition of these proximal fan–terrace systems. In this paper, geomorphologic and sedimentologic study of the Matiali fan and associated river terraces are combined with five OSL dates from these deposits to understand the succession of events and the forcing mechanism that shaped the geomorphology in the study area during late Quaternary time. Two aggradational terraces (T1 and T2; T2 > T1) occur within the river valleys incised on the Matiali fan. Three E–W scarps cross the fan surface, and they represent the steeper limb of the asymmetric fault-propagation folds formed over blind thrusts. These folds have deformed the fan (T3) and T2 terrace sediments, but the youngest T1 terrace deposits have remained undeformed. Sedimentological studies indicate continuous gradation from the coarsening-upwards mass-flow megagravel in the proximal part to the traction transported finer sheetflood gravels in the distal part, implying a continuous sedimentation history across the fan, uninterrupted by any evidence of syn-depositional tectonic movement. Poorly consolidated sandy gravels of the terraces indicate deposition through braided fluvial processes during a later period of sediment aggradation that filled up the incised river valleys. Previously published 14 C dates indicate that deposition of the Matiali fan started around 34 ka coinciding with a period of the intensified Indian summer monsoon of MIS-3. It is suggested that the fan was abandoned and river valleys incised during the LGM between 24 and 18 ka when the discharge decreased substantially. Increased rainfall and sediment supply, with their inherent fluctuations, during wetter periods of MIS-2 and MIS-1 since 12 ka probably resulted in the aggradation of T2 and T1 as shown by our OSL dates. OSL dates from the top of deformed T2 and base of undeformed T1 indicate that the Chalsa fold formed between ~ 11 and ~ 6 ka. Succession of geomorphic and deformational events reconstructed from this study and available age data indicate that the Matiali fan and terrace aggradation coincides with periods of increased monsoonal precipitation, whereas tectonic movements along blind thrusts of Chalsa and Matiali took place later, deforming the fan and older terrace deposits. The evidence unequivocally indicates, contrary to the prevalent notion of tectonic control of geomorphic features in the proximal mountain-front setting, that the deposition of the fan–terrace system was primarily controlled by the fluctuation of the Asian summer monsoon rather than Himalayan tectonics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts the biotic and abiotic components of polar ecosystems, affecting the stability of permafrost, active layer thickness, vegetation, and soil. This paper describes the active layer thermal regimes of two adjacent shallow boreholes, under the same soil but with two different vegetations. The study is location in Lions Rump, at King George Island, Maritime Antarctic, one of the most sensitive regions to climate change, located near the climatic limit of Antarctic permafrost. Both sites are a Turbic Cambic Cryosol formed on andesitic basalt, one under moss vegetation ( Andreaea gainii , at 85 m a.s.l.) and another under lichen ( Usnea sp., at 86 m a.s.l.), located 10 m apart. Ground temperature at same depths (10, 30 and 80 cm), water content at 80 cm depth and air temperature were recorded hourly between March 2009 and February 2011. The two sites showed significant differences in mean annual ground temperature for all depths. The lichen site showed a higher soil temperature amplitude compared to the moss site, with ground surface (10 cm) showing the highest daily temperature in January 2011 (7.3 °C) and the lowest daily temperature in August (− 16.5 °C). The soil temperature at the lichen site closely followed the air temperature trend. The moss site showed a higher water content at the bottommost layer, consistent with the water-saturated, low landscape position. The observed thermal buffering effect under mosses is primarily associated with higher moisture onsite, but a longer duration of the snowpack (not monitored) may also have influenced the results. Active layer thickness was approximately 150 cm at low-lying moss site, and 120 cm at well-drained lichen site. This allows to classify these soils as Cryosols (WRB) or Gelisols (Soil Taxonomy), with evident turbic features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-lying reef islands are among the most vulnerable environments on earth to anthropogenic-induced climate change and sea-level rise over the next century because they are low, composed of unconsolidated sediment that is able to be mobilised by waves and currents, and depend on sediments supplied by reef organisms that are particularly sensitive to environmental changes (e.g. ocean temperatures and chemistry). Therefore, the spatial and temporal links between active carbonate production and island formation and dynamics are fundamental to predicting future island resilience, yet remain poorly quantified. In this paper we present results of a detailed geomorphological and sedimentological study of a reef and sand cay on the northern Great Barrier Reef. We provide an empirical investigation of the temporal linkages between sediment production and reef island development using a large collection of single grain AMS 14C dates. Large benthic foraminifera (LBF) are the single most important contributor to contemporary island sand mass (47%; ranging from 36% to 63%) at Raine Island, reflecting rapid rates of sediment production and delivery. Standing stock data reveal extremely high production rates on the reef (1.8 kg m-2 yr-1), while AMS 14C dates of single LBF tests indicate rapid rates of sediment transferral across the reef. We also demonstrate that age is statistically related to preservation and taphonomic grade (severely abraded tests > moderately abraded tests > pristine tests). We construct a contemporary reef and island sediment budget model for Raine Island that shows that LBF (Baculogypsina, Marginopora and Amphistegina) contribute 55% of the sediment produced on the reef annually, of which a large proportion (54%) contribute to the net annual accretion of the island. The tight temporal coupling between LBF growth and island sediment supply combined with the sensitivity of LBF to bleaching and ocean acidification suggests that islands dominated by LBF are likely to be very sensitive to short and long term climate change projections. Potential outcomes of this work relate to improving the understanding of the future change dynamics of reef islands in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, limited understanding of mesoscale (years-decades-centuries) back-barrier lagoon, barrier estuary behaviour is a critical shortcoming for resource managers and decision makers. In this paper, high-resolution particle size analysis of a sediment core from an intermittently open and closed barrier estuary is utilised to reconstruct a history of back-barrier environmental change at mesoscale temporal resolution. Sediments from Pescadero Marsh, California, were analysed for their particle size distribution at consecutive 2-mm intervals down-core. Site selection, informed by a time series of maps and aerial photographs coupled with a robust core chronology, ensured that the particle size data primarily reflect changing hydrodynamics of the back-barrier area over the European-American era (1850 to the present). Following more traditional plotting of particle size data and summary statistics, and statistical analysis of particle size end-members, visual analysis and categorisation of particle size distribution curves (PSDCs) provide an effective basis for the identification of recurring modal sizes and subpopulations. These particle size windows (PSWs) are interpreted as reflecting different modes of sediment transport and deposition, i.e., suspension and saltation loads, the varying prominence of which is interpreted as being modified by barrier integrity. When considered together, the down-core mean particle size (MPS) trend and individual PSDCs offer considerable insight into mesoscale system behaviour at subannual resolution over multiple years. This behaviour is expressed in the recurrence of characteristic barrier estuarine environments (closed lagoon, tidal lagoon, tidal marsh, and open estuary) and the overall barrier regime, and their persistence over the last c. 150years. Subannual and multiannual fluctuations in back-barrier environmental configuration are seen to be superimposed on a longer-term quasi-stable barrier regime, demonstrating the value of the applied methodology with regard to bridging the estuarine evolution (long-term, stratigraphic) and process (short-term, geomorphic) knowledge bases. The documented behaviour suggests a level of innate morphological resilience in the system over the long term despite episodic disturbance by high-energy storms. Such empirical demonstrations of resilient behaviour in coastal environments are rare at the mesoscale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Extensive research into the changing sediment load throughout the Yangtze River (Changjiang) basin has been completed over recent years, and it provides an ongoing example of how to evaluate the consequences of natural and anthropogenic impacts on sediment processing in a very large fluvial system. This paper reviews these recent studies and critically assesses their findings regarding changes in sediment yield, load (both spatial and temporal variations), grain size, and rating curves, as well as the morphodynamic response of the channel and delta. We also discuss the factors driving these changes, including climate change, soil and water conservation measures, dam construction, and sand extraction, and consider the likely future trends in sediment load. Based on a consideration of the major outcomes of, and discrepancies between, recent studies, we conclude that sediment supply, transport, mobilization, and deposition in this large river system are complicated by the heterogeneous nature of its morphology and climate, as well as the progressive intensification of human activities. Therefore, the identification and interpretation of hydrological and sedimentological changes in the Yangtze basin can be difficult, and an in-depth study of the causal mechanisms of variations in sediment load and the impacts on the Yangtze River system is urgently required. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Jamuna River is the downstream continuation of the Brahmaputra in Bangladesh. It is one of the largest sand-bed braided rivers in the world and every year it erodes thousand hectares of mainland floodplain, rendering tens of thousands of people landless and/or homeless. Understanding the morpho-dynamics of this river and its responses to the various drivers of morphological change that act on it is essential to improving the livelihoods of millions of floodplain dwellers in Bangladesh, especially given the threats posed by climate change. Reliable data, information and knowledge of river process are sparse and so progress in linking the impacts of multiple drivers (including neo-tectonics, earthquakes, large-scale avulsions and engineering interventions) to complex morphological responses depends on making best use of historical maps, time-series satellite images, hydro-morphological data, expert judgment and local knowledge. This paper draws on all these sources to chronicle the morphological evolution of the Jamuna River since the avulsion that created it about 200years ago, and to establish temporal trends and spatial patterns in the changes that have characterized process–response mechanisms in this fluvial system since then. The understanding gained from these investigations then supports deeper analyses to: explain how historical migration of the river westward has produced significant contrasts between left and right (west) bank material properties; elucidate the relationships between discharge, fluvial processes, anabranch instability and floodplain erosion rates, and; identify causal links between drivers and morphological responses at a variety of time and space scales. Finally, the new knowledge generated by the analyses developed herein are combined with existing, conceptual and empirical process–response models for the Jamuna to predict possible future morphological adjustments in ways helpful in identifying appropriate strategies for climate change adaptation in Bangladesh. The enhanced knowledge gained from these historical and contemporary investigations may also be useful in assessing the impacts of natural and anthropogenic drivers on other large, braided rivers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a shoreface sediment budget established for the 20th century (1895–1984–2009) along the microtidal wave-dominated coast of the western Gulf of Lions (Languedoc-Roussillon, Mediterranean Sea, SE France). The implementation of a diachronic bathymetric approach, coupled with the definition of sand reservoirs (upper sand unit — USU) by very high-resolution seismic surveys and the results of LiDAR investigations, offers a new means of defining precisely the magnitude and change trends of the sediment budget. The aim of this study is to link the Large Scale Coastal Behaviour (LSCB) of the littoral prism (expressed in terms of shoreface sediment budget, shoreface sediment volume and spatial distribution pattern of cells) to climatic change, river sediment input to the coast, longshore sediment transport distribution, impact of hard coastal defence structures and artificial beach nourishment. The results show a significant reduction of the volume of the western Gulf of Lions littoral prism over 114years (−26.1±4.6×106 m3). From 1895 to 1984, the overall budget is slightly positive, with a volume estimated at 4.1±3.5×106 m3. For 1984–2009, however, the estimated sediment budgets clearly indicate that erosion is dominant over the last 25years, with a volume loss of −30.2±4.2×106 m3. In relation to the long-term sediment budget and longshore drift pattern, the long-term trend of the USU volume distribution displays strong spatio-temporal contrasts linked to longshore sediment drift, spatial distribution of fluvial sediment inputs and hard engineering structures. Locally, the sedimentary reservoir is significantly eroded within a century (−80% of USU), since the initial amount present was low and not sustainable. The emphasis is on the importance of considering the volume changes of available sediment reservoirs rather than their losses and gains. Erosion of the Languedoc-Roussillon shoreface is likely to continue in the future due to the “natural” decrease of river sediment input and the sand removal for human purposes. Consequently the littoral sand prism results in sedimentary reservoirs that are gradually being used up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The wide, sediment-starved continental shelf and modern coastal areas of the southeastern United States retain well-preserved but scattered remnants of a submerged paleolandscape. This paper presents a conceptual model of stratigraphic deposition and landscape formation since the last interglacial on the continental shelf of South Carolina, with portions of North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida (USA). Data for this study include multibeam bathymetry surveys, sidescan sonar mosaics, high-resolution subbottom profiles, and ground-truth surveys from −250m to the modern tidewater region. Four bathymetric zones are recognized with eleven landforms and landform indicators. The described zones range in depths from the modern shoreline, across the shelf, and over the shelf edge to −250m MSL. Relative sea level curves are presented for the area and discussed in conjunction with cultural and climatic events. The potential for preservation of Paleoamerican sites is high at the shelf edge between −130m and −45m, with Archaic and later occupations likely in depths of less than −25m. Prominent vantage points for Paleoamericans (>11kya) would have existed at the shelf edge, and tidewater resources would have been available nearby for a period of almost 6ka. Rapid transgression rates (>60km/ka) after the sea level rose over the shelf edge make preservation of tidewater sites less likely on the outer and middle shelf. Searches for the earliest Paleoamericans should focus on promontories at the edge of the shelf and along future discoveries of paleoincisions on the shelf. Mapping and delineating this paleolandscape and associated unconsolidated sedimentary deposits interspersed with rocky plains and ledges will continue to be a priority to marine archeologists, coastal managers, fishery scientists, and marine spatial planners over the next several decades. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Coastal transitional environments such as estuaries, coastal inlets and tidal lagoons are the result of the interaction of several exogenous forcing factors (e.g. tidal regime, local wind and wave climate, sea-level rise, sediment supply) many of which are, in principle, variable in time over historical and geological timescales. Besides the natural variability of the external constraints, human interventions in some components of the system can either directly or indirectly affect long-term sediment dynamics in the whole system. In this paper the evolution of a schematic tidal basin, with non-uniform sediments and subject to geological and anthropogenic processes, is reproduced by means of a two dimensional morphodynamic model and qualitatively compared to the events which historically took place in the Venice Lagoon during the last four centuries; the trend for the next 200years is also investigated. In particular, the effect on both morphology and bottom composition of river diversion, jetty construction, human-induced subsidence and channel dredging are presented and discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the evolutionary paths of some transgressive dune fields that have formed on different coasts of the world, and presents some initial conceptual models of system dynamics for transgressive dune sheets and dune fields. Various evolutionary pathways are conceptualized based on a visual examination of dune fields from around the world. On coasts with high sediment supply, dune sheets and dune fields tend to accumulate as large scale barrier systems with little colonization of vegetation in arid-hyper to arid climate regimes, and as multiple, active discrete phases of dune field and deflation plain couplets in temperate to tropical environments. Active dune fields tend to be singular entities on coasts with low to moderate sediment supply. Landscape complexity and vegetation richness and diversity increases as dune fields evolve from simple active sheets and dunes to single and multiple deflation plains and basins, precipitation ridges, nebkha fields and a host of other dune types associated with vegetation (e.g. trailing ridges, slacks, remnant knobs, gegenwalle ridges and dune track ridges, ‘tree islands’ and ‘bush pockets’). Three principal scenarios of transgressive dune sheet and dune field development are discussed, including dune sheets or dune fields evolving directly from the backshore, development following foredune and/or dune field erosion, and development from the breakdown or merging of parabolic dunes. Various stages of evolution are outlined for each scenario. Knowledge of evolutionary patterns and stages in coastal dune fields is very limited and caution is urged in attempts to reverse, change and/or modify dune fields to ‘restore’ some perceived loss of ecosystem or dune functioning. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The purpose of this research was to develop a model for the analysis of agricultural landscape evolution at a fine spatial resolution scale (1–10m) and a medium-term temporal scale (10–100years). The model (LandSoil: landscape design for soil conservation under Land use and climate change) works at a catchment scale and it is based on the STREAM soil erosion model. It is spatially distributed, event-based, and considers interrill, rill and tillage erosion as the main processes acting in soil redistribution. The specificities of the model include the use of a detailed representation of the agricultural landscape through parameters such as soil surface properties, hydrologic pathways and considering a climate component based directly on rainfall events. In this paper, we present the characteristics of the model and its application to a Mediterranean study area. The model was subjected to a calibration/validation procedure at two different spatial scales (field and catchment) with a medium-term data series of runoff and sediment concentration measurements. A number of medium-term field and catchment simulations were carried out, allowing us to observe landscape evolution under recent and actual agricultural practices and to formulate hypotheses based on changes related to different agricultural patterns and soil uses. Modelling at a field scale using rill, interrill and tillage erosion simulations on reconstructed prior topographic surfaces showed a relationship between observed and simulated topography with a prediction error<15% and a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.605. A catchment scale analysis of a degraded scenario, maximising hillslope runoff with the removal of all the grass strips between fields, indicated a global increase of the soil erosion rate (+29%), with spatial variability depending on the specific soil use type. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Interpretation of channel changes is not always straightforward since it requires a detailed reconstruction of the evolutionary trajectory of channel morphology, a quantitative analysis of controlling factors and, finally, identification of links between evolutionary trajectories and controlling factors. The aim of this paper is to explain channel adjustments and controlling factors in the Tagliamento River, a large gravel-bed river in northeastern Italy. Traditional methods for studying historical channel changes (i.e., use of aerial photos, topographic data) were employed, but numerical modelling turned out to be very useful for the quantification of bedload transport and for supporting interpretation of past changes and likely future channel evolution. River channel underwent three main phases of adjustment over the last 200years. The first two phases, from the end of the nineteenth century to the early 1990s, were characterized by narrowing (channel width decreased from 1250 to 540m) and incision (about 1m); and the third phase, from the 1990s to present day, by widening (from 540 to 600m) and slight aggradation (about 0.2m). Combining evolutionary trajectories of channel morphology and analysis of controlling factors we argue that the long-term channel evolution of the Tagliamento River was driven mainly by human intervention at the reach scale (i.e., sediment mining and channelization). Changes in sediment supply in the catchment area had no, or minor, effects in the study reach. The most recent changes (i.e., widening and slight aggradation) are explained as a response to past disturbances that have produced a remarkable change of channel geometry and an increase of unit stream power in the reach. Magnitude and frequency of formative discharges are a key driving factor of the intensity of recent changes, while this was not the case during the previous phases of adjustment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Glaciation and deglaciation, along with their associated climatic and non-climatic processes, modify slope stresses and influence slope stability. Paraglacial slope failures are those that are a part of, or influenced by, the transition from glacial conditions to non-glacial conditions. Gravitational failure of rock slopes is a primary and dominant process of slope evolution in mountainous terrain and is the subject of this paper, which: (1) reviews the approaches taken for researching paraglacial rock slope failure patterns and processes; (2) summarises the spatial and temporal patterns of post-glacial failures; (3) assesses the factors influencing slope stability during glaciation and deglaciation; (4) explores some of the applications of paraglacial research; and (5) highlights some of the outstanding issues to be resolved and provides recommendations for terminology relating to paraglacial slope processes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Lefkada–Preveza coastal zone, NW Greece, is characterised by an active barrier system and related extensive beachrock sequences. Besides the gradual coastal processes of longshore drift and spit evolution, the presence of active tectonics and the occurrence of tsunamis have been documented in previous studies and are part of the coastal geomorphological system. In this paper, we present the results of detailed multi-proxy sedimentological and geomorphological investigations carried out along the northern part of the barrier system and in back-beach positions. Our findings suggest that extreme wave events contributed to coastal and environmental changes and involved temporary breakdown of the barrier system. Sedimentary findings suggest that one generation of event deposits may be related to the 365AD Crete earthquake and associated tsunami. According to our results, the Lefkada coastal system formed by the interaction of both long-term, gradual and sudden, impulsive littoral geomorphodynamics. Extreme wave events are assumed to have played a significant role in the evolution of the present coastline, acting as recurrent impulsive disturbances of the coastal system. Subsequently, the onset of long-term gradual coastal processes, such as longshore drift, re-established a state of natural coastal balance by re-arranging the coastal sediments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Natural rivers are subjected to continuous adjustments in response to any change in the environment. These environmental changes may occur naturally, as in the case of climatic variation or changes in vegetative cover, or may be related to human activities including channelization, damming, bank protection, and bridge construction. Identifying the value of that discharge (‘dominant’ or ‘effective’ discharge, Q D ) considered responsible for the main changes operated by a river has been a subject of great challenge to scientists and engineers during the last decades. In fact, this threshold value is largely adopted for stream-management decisions, for predicting the stable slope upstream of grade-control structures, and for designing moderate- to large-sized hydraulic structures. In this paper, a simple concept of dominant discharge, corresponding to that value of Q D that accounts for at least 50% of the total suspended sediment load transported by the river, is introduced and discussed. The work is based on a long-term data set that includes measurements of monthly discharge and suspended sediment load in 27 stream gauge stations located in three different regions of southern Italy. The analysis showed that Q D corresponds to values of the return time, T, ranging from 1 to 5years, confirming previous findings by other authors in similar analyses. Also, as the values of Q D were well correlated with the 1.5-year peak discharges of the same investigated rivers, an empirical approach is suggested in order to estimate Q D in rivers with no sediment load measurements. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper gives an analysis of the pattern of soil cover of the Sierra Madre del Sur, one of the most complex physiographic regions of Mexico. It presents the results of the study of four latitudinal traverses across the region. We show that the distribution of soils in the Sierra Madre del Sur is associated with major climatic gradients, namely by vertical bioclimatic zonality in the mountains and by the effect of mountain shadow. Altitudinal distribution of soil-bioclimatic belts is complex due to non-uniform gradients of temperature and rainfall, and varies with the configuration of the mountain range. The distribution of soils is associated with the erosion and accumulation rates both on mountain slopes and in river valleys. The abundance of poorly developed soils in (semi)arid areas was ascribed to high erosion rate rather than to low pedogenetic potential. The formation of soil mosaic at a larger scale might be ascribed to the complex net of gully erosion and to the system of seismically triggered landslides of various ages. In the valleys, the distribution of soils depends upon the dynamics of sedimentation and erosion, which eventually exposes paleosols. Red-colored clayey sediments are remains of ancient weathering and pedogenesis. Their distribution is associated mainly with the intensity of recent slope processes. The soil cover pattern of the Sierra Madre del Sur cannot be explained by simplified schemes of bioclimatic zonality. The soil ranges can be explained by the distribution of climates, lithology, complex geological history of the region, and recent geomorphological processes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the spatial variation of sediment yield in the Yangtze basin in China, a large basin with complex geology, climate, land-use history, and extensive sediment monitoring. 287 stations with drainage area less than 10,000km2 were used to study the scale effects of sediment yield. In order to develop scale relations for regional sediment yield, the whole study area was divided into eight sub-basins. Relation between specific sediment yield and drainage basin area was built for each sub-basin. Regional scaling relation was analyzed based on landforms, geology, lithology and land-use of each sub-basin. Three regional trends were identified in relation to the drainage area: (1) a declining trend, due to soil erosion on heavily cultivated steep land and the storage of sediment in floodplains; (2) a flat trend, due to mass movement on the upper reach and heavy agricultural disturbance on the middle and lower reaches; and (3) an increasing trend, due to downstream recruitment of sediment from land downstream where slope farming and deforestation occurred. Using these developed relations, areally adjusted sediment yield maps were created over the entire Yangtze basin. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper introduces a semi-automatic computer algorithm designed to detect rip current channels in video imagery. As a case study, this method is applied to 3.3years of video data from an embayed beach to demonstrate the link between antecedent surf zone morphology, wave energy and up/down transitions in beach state. An objective measure of rip channel change was developed to define six significant rip reconfiguration events and relate these events to wave energy. Over the period of study no complete resets of the nearshore morphology occurred. The analysis indicates that direct correlation of rip patterns with the instantaneous wave conditions is not a useful way to demonstrate how rips and waves interact. The average wave energy over a period of ten days, combined with storm duration were good indicators of rip channel change, demonstrating that in general, beach morphology responds with a time lag to changes in forcing. Rip channels with a short cross-shore length and narrow alongshore spacing responded faster to changes in wave conditions than rips with a long cross-shore length and wider alongshore spacing. To force changes in the rip morphology, longer rip channels required wave events of higher energy and/or a longer duration. Offshore islands protect the beach under certain wave approach angles, sometimes resulting in a dual-width surf zone, which was narrow at the sheltered end and wide at the exposed end of the beach. The wider surf zone end was characterised by three dominant and persistent rip channels, whereas the narrow surf zone section contained a number of smaller rips which evolved rapidly under wave forcing. Our observations demonstrate the importance of rip channel size in controlling the response time of nearshore morphology. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: An increasing number of studies have indicated that soil erosion, sediment redistribution and water discharge during the Holocene have varied greatly under influence of environmental changes. In this paper we have used a modeling approach to study the driving forces for soil erosion and sediment redistribution on the one hand, and water discharge on the other hand, during the Holocene for the Belgian Dijle catchment. Soil erosion and sediment redistribution was modeled using the spatially distributed Watem/Sedem model. Several scenarios of past land use and climate were used to model soil erosion, colluvial sedimentation and sediment export to the fluvial system, and those scenarios were combined with a sensitivity analysis. Modeling results are validated based on an available time differentiated field-based sediment budget. Water discharge was modeled using the spatially distributed STREAM model with a daily time step. The model was calibrated based on contemporary discharge data. The results indicate that soil erosion has increased between the early Holocene and the current situation by ca. 9% due to climatic variations, and by ca. 6000% due to changes in land use. The average discharge has increased by ca. 7%, mainly due to land use changes, and the discharge also shows more peaks. The decrease in cropland area and increase in built up area since 1775 CE has resulted in a decrease in soil erosion and in a further increase in discharge, showing the difference in sensitivity of both processes to land use changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Increased landslide activity is commonly listed as an expected impact of human-induced climate change. This paper examines the theoretical and empirical bases for this assertion. It identifies the mechanisms by which climate can induce landsliding and examines the manner in which these mechanisms may respond to changes in a range of climatic parameters. It is argued that inherent limiting stability factors, which vary with different terrain conditions and landslide types, ultimately govern the nature of response to changing climate. Several modelling approaches are evaluated on the basis of their potential to predict landslide response to climate projections. Given reliable input data of appropriate form and resolution, the existing slope stability, hydrological, and statistical models are for the most part capable of yielding useful prognoses on occurrence, reactivation, magnitude and frequency of landsliding. While there is a strong theoretical basis for increased landslide activity as a result of predicted climate change, there remains a high level of uncertainty resulting from the margins of error inherent in scenario-driven global climate predictions, and the lack of sufficient spatial resolution of currently available downscaled projections. Examples from New Zealand are used to illustrate the extent to which changes resulting from human activity have affected slope stability. Changes resulting from human activity are seen as a factor of equal, if not greater, importance than climate change in affecting the temporal and spatial occurrence of landslides. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Debris-flow activity in a watershed is usually defined in terms of magnitude and frequency. While magnitude–frequency (M–F) relations have long formed the basis for risk assessment and engineering design in hydrology and fluvial hydraulics, only fragmentary and insufficiently specified data for debris flows exists. This paper reconstructs M–F relationships of 62 debris flows for an aggradational cone of a small (<5km2), high elevation watershed in the Swiss Alps since A.D. 1863. The frequency of debris flows is obtained from tree-ring records. The magnitude of individual events is given as S, M, L, XL, and derived from volumetric data of deposits, grain size distributions of boulders, and a series of surrogates (snout elevations, tree survival, lateral spread of surges). Class S and M debris flows (<5×103 m3) encompass a typical size of events and have mean recurrence intervals of 5.4 (SD: 3.2) and 7.4years (SD: 6.7), respectively. Class XL events (104–5×104 m3) are, in contrast, only identified three times over the past 150years, and major erosional activity on the cone was restricted to two of these events in 1948 and 1993. A comparison of results with hydrometeorological records shows that class L and XL events are typically triggered by advective storms (rainfall >50mm) in August and September, when the active layer of the rock glacier in the source area of debris flows is largest. Over the past ∼150years, climate has exerted control on material released from the source area and prevented triggering of class XL events before 1922. With the projected climatic change, permafrost degradation and the potential increase in storm intensity are likely to produce “class XXL” events in the future with volumes surpassing 5×104 m3 at the level of the debris-flow cone. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The present knowledge of climate variability in the Indian sub-continent from terrestrial records is extremely widespread. Very few studies, backed by sound chronological database, extend to the full duration of even Late Quaternary. A critical evaluation of the available stratigraphic as well as chronological data needs to be undertaken to establish secure proxy-climatic indicators in the Indian-sub-continent. This paper presents a synthesis of the available fluvial and fluvio-deltaic successions for the Late Pleistocene–Holocene period from the Ganga basin. The Ganga basin, trending parallel to the strike of the Himalayan foreland, shows a clear expression of variability of modern climate as precipitation doubles in a west to east transect from east of Delhi to east of Kolkata. This has resulted in complex spatial response of river systems because of variable stream power and sediment discharges that result in present-day degradational and aggradational regimes across the plains. We believe that such geomorphic diversity has existed over most of the Late Quaternary as is manifested in significant spatial variability in the alluvial architecture developed below the plains. We have analyzed the fluvial and fluvio-deltaic sedimentary successions in the Ganga basin and highlighted the influence of climatic variability in the generation of these successions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The problem of historical desertification of the Mu Us desert, northern China has been paid considerable attention during the past several decades. Through the analysis of stratigraphic evidence, historical records and archaeological discoveries, this paper studied the problem using a multidisciplinary approach. The results show that two phases of serious desertification occurred during the last two millennia, one is during the mid-to-late Tang dynasty (about A.D. 800) and the other during the late Ming dynasty (about A.D. 1500–1600). Further investigation of the cause of each phase of desertification demonstrates that the former phase of desertification is closely related to abrupt climate change occurring in the mid-eighth century, but the latter, which started during the Ming dynasty and stopped at late 1980s, is not consistent with climatic causation. Therefore, we suggest that human activities contributed to the development of the latter phase of desertification. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate changes and sea-level rise are important issues, especially for deltas such as the Po Delta, Italy. The evolution of the Po Delta shows a succession in space and a superposition in time of complex environmental natural processes. During the last few centuries, anthropogenic action has played a major role. The formation of the Po Delta began about 2000 years ago and has undergone many phases of development. Between 1500 AD and 1600 AD, the Venetian technicians diverted the Po river course. With these interventions, the “Renaissance delta” was cut off from the hydraulic network and the “modern delta” began to form. Until the middle of the 20th century, progradation of the delta was noticeable due to the abundant sediment supply. In the following decades coastal erosion occurred, this was caused by the reduction of the solid supply of the Po, due to dam and barrier construction and to river bed excavation. These and other interventions (e.g. reclamation, methane extractions from superficial ground water table) have deeply modified the physical and ecological characteristics of the Po Delta. The morphological characteristics of the Po Delta make the largest Italian wetland particularly unstable and very fragile when subjected to human pressure. Furthermore, the delta evidences multiple threats that will probably be exacerbated in the following decades by the effects of expected climatic changes. Only the application of careful policies concerning coastal defence, flood mitigation, anthropogenic subsidence reduction and salt wedge intrusion control will allow reduction of the present or predicted negative effects. This paper reviews how natural and human factors have controlled the Po Delta through time and discusses management strategies taking into account the importance of the human factor and the potential effects of climatic changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]