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Abstract Archaeological studies typically describe arid areas as extremely unpleasant areas for human occupation and use. Without suggesting that arid areas are pleasant places, however, this paper provides a reassessment of the meaning of aridity for an area showing a vast amount of evidence of (past) human activities. Several climatic proxy data suggest that at the transition between the late Bronze Age and the Early Iron Age (around c. 1300-1100 BC) the southern Levant witnessed more arid conditions, while after 1100 BC relatively moist conditions would have prevailed. In drylands, small changes in temperature and water availability can have large effects on subsistence options. Building on cooperation between an archaeologist and a water scholar, this paper offers an approach to study how people in the past were able to craft a livelihood in the arid environments in the southern Levant and elsewhere. Focusing on the Zerqa area, the paper explores the potential of this cooperation by studying effects of climatic changes at the transition from the Late Bronze Age to the Iron Age through a modelling approach. Changes in temperature and moisture availability were simulated, showing that increased aridity could have been met by either naturally available water (especially groundwater) or artificially added water (although the timing appears to be crucial). While the model approach under discussion offers an approximation of the past, it shows the potential impact of climatic changes on the subsistence of past communities. It shows that details can mean the difference between survival or collapse. Highlights • Modelling provides boundaries for thinking about ancient resilience. • Rainfed crop yields could be sustained with irrigation, even in the frequent dry years. • Increasing aridity might have been a trigger for expanding the irrigation system. • The Zerqa Triangle was affected by the LBA crisis, yet continuity is visible as well. • Aridity did not necessarily bring crisis, even in arid areas like the Zerqa Triangle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents empirical evidence of historical vegetation and climate change in the arid Pro-Namib and hyper-arid Namib Desert spanning the late 19th century to the present based on one hundred archival landscape photographs that have been re-photographed or 'matched'. Each photo site was evaluated for changes in woody cover and taken together serve as a proxy for how climate has changed in the region. Vegetation change was related to values for precipitation and temperature derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System for the period 1948–2017 as well as the number of fog days expected at a site. The resulting analysis reveals a trend of increased vegetation cover associated with increased precipitation (fog and rain) in the coastal Fogbelt and the inland Savanna transition with a shrinking of the hyper-arid Minimum zone between the two. These findings accord with projected effects of global warming on the Benguela upwelling system but are at variance with regional climate model forecasts that project widespread aridification. In the absence of long-term climate data, the results of this research are an important contribution of evidence-based knowledge of past climate trends and their relationship to future climate change scenarios for the region. • Global change models predict Namibia becoming hotter leading to aridification. • We used historical photos of the Pro-Namib and Namib Desert to test this forecast. • Correlations between historical climate values and vegetation change were analysed. • Contrary to expectations, woody plant cover has increased at most locations. • Past trends of increased rainfall and fog predict environmental futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has an adverse impact on rural livelihoods by increasing vulnerability and reducing crop yields. Climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices have been advanced as a possible solution to adopt and mitigate climate change issues. Administering a structured questionnaire survey among the 494 rural farming households of an eastern Indian state, namely Odisha, the study explores the key determinants of CSA adoption. Three districts, one from the state's coastal and two from the inland regions, are chosen for the study. The majority of the respondents (85%) perceive an increase in temperature and (76%) perceive a decrease in rainfall due to climate change in the region. The respondents have adopted a range of CSA practices such as rescheduling planting (74.5%), crop rotation (59.3%), crop diversification (31.2%), soil conservation (62.1%), drought-resistant seeds (36%) and agroforestry (10.3%) to adapt to these weather anomalies. The current paper employs a multivariate probit model in which the findings of econometric modelling have been triangulated to explore the key determinants of the adoption of CSA practices. The result shows that the key determinants are – perception of climate change, agricultural extension services, and access to energy for irrigation. • Climate change has adversely affected yields and the livelihood of rural farmers in Odisha. • Climate-smart agricultural practices have been advanced as a possible solution. • A multivariate method has been used to analyze the factors affecting the adaption. • Perception, access to extension and energy sources are the major determinants. • The information gap and lack of financial and market access are the barriers to adoption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is a collation and synthesis of the literature review with the focus on the vulnerability of rural women in developing countries to climate change on the one hand and being pro-active in adapting to climate change on the other. The geographic coverage of the literature is global but with specific examples from India. The information presented in this paper is derived from diverse sources including journal articles and thematic books, and indicates severe adverse impacts not only on women's livelihood opportunities but also on exacerbating the workload and fatigue while decreasing their self esteem and forcing them to undertake some high risks and hazardous activities. The literature indicates that poverty, gender inequality, insecure land rights, heavy reliance on agriculture, less access to education and information are among the principal reasons for their vulnerability to climate change. The vulnerability is also confounded by the meager asset base, social marginalization, lack of mobility and exclusion from the decision-making processes in response to a disaster. However, the literature also shows that women are not only the passive victims of climate change but are also pro-active and agents of hope for adaptation to and mitigation of abrupt climate change. They utilize their experience and expertise to reduce the adverse impacts by adopting prudent strategies. They are also concerned about environmental issues, and are highly supportive of policies regarding environmental restoration. Large knowledge gaps exist regarding the vulnerability of women to changing and uncertain climate especially in arid regions. Authors of this article suggest some action plans and strategies to minimize vulnerability to climate change such as empowering women economically and educationally, organizing training and outreach programmes, and involving them in formal climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Authors also outline research needed in order to identify and implement strategies regarding climate change. Collective and continuous efforts are critical to finding the sustainable solutions for this global phenomenon which is adversely impacting the most vulnerable but critically important members of the society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is a major driver of ecosystem dynamics. In recent years there has been considerable interest in future climate change and potential impacts on ecosystems and management options. In this paper, we analyzed minimum monthly temperature (T min ) for ten rural locations in the western U.S. sagebrush steppe. Oregon and Nevada each had five locations, and the period of record ranged from 69 to 125 years. We used structural time series analysis to evaluate trends over time at each location. We also used box plots to compare variation within months at each location. We concluded: 1) T min variation over years is much higher during the winter than during other seasons, 2) there is evidence of decadal trends in both directions (hotter and cooler) for most, but not all sites, and 3) sites exhibited individualistic patterns rather than following a general regional pattern. The analysis shows that sites in relatively close proximity can exhibit different temperature patterns over time. We suggest that ecologists and land managers make use of any available weather data from local weather stations when planning for the future or interpreting past changes in plant and animal populations, rather than relying on regional averages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is one of the main natural factors in declining tree-ring growth and the production of agricultural crops in Algeria. This paper addresses the variability of growing conditions for wheat in Algeria with climatic data and a tree-ring reconstruction of January–June precipitation from ten Pinus halepensis tree-ring chronologies. A regression-based reconstruction equation explains up to 74% of the variance of precipitation in the 1970–2011 calibration period and cross validates well. Classification of dry years by the 30% percentile of observed precipitation (131 mm) yields a maximum length of drought of five years (1877–1881) and increasing frequency of dry years in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. A correlation-based sensitivity analysis shows a similar pattern of dependence of tree-growth and wheat production on monthly and seasonal precipitation, but contrasting patterns of dependence on temperature. The patterns are interpreted by reference to phenology, growth phases, and – for wheat – agricultural practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In West Africa, the channels for information flow from meteorological services to end-users, such as pastoralists, are relatively limited. As meteorological information is key to improving productivity for pastoralists, it represents a challenge at both local and national level to develop an efficient information dissemination system. However, few studies have focused specifically on pastoralists as end-users, and the best mode of delivering meteorological information to pastoralists remains unknown. Drawing on fieldwork conducted in Burkina Faso using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper examines 1) the principal modes used by pastoralists to receive information, and 2) in what form and by which type of media pastoralists actually prefer to receive information. It was found that mobile phones have replaced traditional forecasting methods as these were becoming unreliable with increased climate variability. The phone was used to acquire updated informal information on, for example, the arrival of the rain from friends and family staying in other areas. The findings illuminate how mobile phones have a huge potential to deliver more formal information to pastoralists, and we propose that forecasts should be available as voice messages in local languages rather than text messages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers two river systems that have been subject to significant development during the last 60 years: the Jordan River in the Middle East and the Colorado River in the western United States. Both play major roles in serving the demands of growing populations, and climate change models predict both semi-arid to arid regions to become hotter and/or drier in the future. The Jordan River basin, shared by five nations, is already experiencing a critical level of environmental damage. Its lower stretch is practically a sewage canal with less than 10% of its natural base-flow. Due to its unique historical, religious and environmental role, restoration efforts have gained momentum and wide public support. In the Colorado River Basin, water law is characterized by the “Law of the River” and water use is managed through regional allocation constraints. The Colorado River, shared by seven U.S. states and Mexico, is highly managed and over-allocated. Shortage declarations have serious implications for low priority users, with the Central Arizona Project being among the lowest. This makes large population centers and agricultural users vulnerable to curtailment of deliveries. We argue that there are common factors with respect to the policy and management options of these two basins that may provide insights into the similarities and divergences of their respective future pathways. These factors are: regional water supply and demand pressures, water governance, transboundary issues and demand for environmental flows. With a particular focus on the Israel and Arizona portions of these respective river basins, we address synergies and tradeoffs between groundwater and surface water usage, sectoral allocation strategies, public vs. private water ownership and legality, transboundary sharing, technical options for addressing growing regional water scarcity, and economic considerations. Difficult and bold decisions are required in both regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) lies at the convergence of the Asian winter and summer monsoons and westerlies, making it an ideal place for studying the effects of climatic change, owing to its fragile ecological environment and unique geographical location. This paper reports on a multi-proxy analysis consisting of magnetic susceptibility, total organic carbon content (TOC), pollen, grain size, and geochemical parameters from the peat deposit in the Gonghe Basin to reconstruct the Holocene millennial-scale climatic variation. The results indicate that the climate tended to be warm and humid since 10.0 cal ka BP, but it deteriorated obviously (cold and dry) in 8.6–7.1 cal ka BP. The regional optimal warm and humid period was from 7.1–3.8 cal ka BP, although there were frequent climatic fluctuations during that time. Thereafter, the climate became cold and dry. 10 millennial-time-scale cold events were recorded, which were coincident with climatic records from deep sediments in the North Atlantic Ocean, ice cores, lakes, peat, and aeolian deposits in the QTP. In addition, we discovered that the southwestern monsoons forced by solar insolation in the Holocene have crucial effects on regional climatic change, and the millennial-scale cold fluctuations are possibly related to the thermohaline circulation (THC). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Dryland smallholders are faced with the challenges of achieving resilience and agricultural sustainability. This is in addition to constraints such as lack of capital, inputs, and often poor extension services. The risk of extreme weather events poses a great challenge to food security in drylands as the impacts of climate change increases. This paper examines the challenges faced by smallholders and the limitations of traditional farming systems in Sudano-Sahelian zones amidst climate change and emerging armed conflicts with special focus on the Sudano-Sahelian Nigerian drylands. The review reports three key findings as follows: first, smallholders have been active in managing short-term environmental risks and challenges by using local knowledge to improve production and short-term resilience. Secondly, concerns about potential longer-term climatic changes such as longer droughts, desertification, the impact of the drying of the Lake Chad, armed conflicts and extreme weather events could hinder resilience. Third, an increasing rainfall variability, soil/nutrient degradation and farming systems adopted could limit or undermine resilience strategies, especially if new environmental challenges exceed those previously experienced. This review suggests a need for additional research into innovative drylands' sustainability and resilience practices in response to a changing climate linked to other social challenges. • Drylands smallholders are resilient to changes in the climate they have experienced. • Production is restricted by new social challenges. • Climate change, and other challenges will limit food security. • Current adaptation not sufficient if new environmental challenges emerge. • More innovative strategies should be researched into for resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration has become an adaptation strategy in response to economic transition and changing climate in the arid Mongolia. This paper reviews migration in Mongolia in the past few decades, particularly from the early 2000s to the mid-2010s using the data during 2001–2014 of the Mongolia National Labor Survey. Urbanization accounted for over 80% of all migration, mostly into the capital city Ulaanbaatar (UB), where nearly 70% of recent population growth was from migration. The results indicated that married and more educated people were more likely to migrate to urban areas and less likely to migrate to rural areas. Higher wage was a major driver for people to move to cities from the pastoral livelihoods. Migratory rates to both urban and rural areas increased during 2011–2014 following a severe disaster, the 2009–2010 dzud. People from the eastern region were more likely to move back to the rural area than those living in the western region as the east had a more favorable climate for pastoralism. The results confirm the importance of climate and weather changes in migration along with several socio-economic indicators. • Urbanization in Mongolia accounted for over 80% of all migration, mostly into the capital city Ulaanbaatar (UB). • Married and more educated people were more likely to migrate to urban areas. Higher wages were a major driver for people to move to cities from the pastoral livelihoods. • The results confirm the importance of climate and weather changes in migration along with several socio-economic indicators. • Migratory rates to both urban and rural areas increased during 2011–2014 following a severe disaster, the 2009–2010 dzud. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to examine the beef value chain and identify climate change adaptation and investment options in the semi-arid areas of northern Kenya. The research uses an innovative approach to value chain analysis, namely the three-step Value Chain Analysis for Resilience in Drylands (VC-ARID) that considers the specific characteristics of semi-arid systems. All the respondents interviewed along the value chain have perceived changes in rainfall, temperature and climate extremes – especially drought – over the past 15 years and have experienced the impacts of these changes on their livestock. The findings show that pastoralist producers need to invest in fattening programmes at their ranches or via feedlots to increase the quality of the beef they produce. There is significant potential to improve the fattening stage in the value chain, since it would contribute towards meeting demand in the expanding high-end markets that require finished, top-quality meats. • Pastoralists beef value chain is more informal, traditional, extensive pastoralism. • Private ranches value chain is formal and incorporates fattening of livestock. • Pastoralists rely on mobility for coping with climate risk. • Climate change has negatively impacted on semi-Arid livestock production. • There is potential to improve and expand the fattening stage of the value chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will likely impact rainfall characteristics in particular locations; the amount, seasonality, variability and spatial patterns. In developing countries, this presents challenges for rural smallholder farmers as their livelihoods are largely based on rain-fed practices. Changes in climate patterns could increase farmers' vulnerability and the need for intervention. In this paper, we develop new metrics of analysis motivated by qualitative research with smallholder farmers. Previous research found that farmers' understanding of historical rainfall change is accurate, yet diverge from some research studies. We analyze meteorological station rainfall data using metrics that are familiar to smallholders. Farmers' perceptions of rainfall in southern Ethiopia were explored through interviews conducted in three communities. Our findings identified some forms of convergence, as well as divergence, in farmers' perception of rainfall trends and meteorological station data results. In asking the question 'Why do data based on farmer experiences of rainfall variability differ from meteorological station data?', we show that using existing data and applying farmer-influenced metrics can improve the information shared with farmers. We argue that, under further climate change, it will be increasingly important to convey meteorological information to farmers in ways that are relevant to them and their agricultural livelihoods. • Smallholder farmer experiences and climate science often diverge. • We develop new metrics motivated by research with smallholders. • New metrics and analyses can bridge some divergences. • Methods developed are relevant for communicating climate science with farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]