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This paper presents empirical evidence of historical vegetation and climate change in the arid Pro-Namib and hyper-arid Namib Desert spanning the late 19th century to the present based on one hundred archival landscape photographs that have been re-photographed or 'matched'. Each photo site was evaluated for changes in woody cover and taken together serve as a proxy for how climate has changed in the region. Vegetation change was related to values for precipitation and temperature derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System for the period 1948–2017 as well as the number of fog days expected at a site. The resulting analysis reveals a trend of increased vegetation cover associated with increased precipitation (fog and rain) in the coastal Fogbelt and the inland Savanna transition with a shrinking of the hyper-arid Minimum zone between the two. These findings accord with projected effects of global warming on the Benguela upwelling system but are at variance with regional climate model forecasts that project widespread aridification. In the absence of long-term climate data, the results of this research are an important contribution of evidence-based knowledge of past climate trends and their relationship to future climate change scenarios for the region. • Global change models predict Namibia becoming hotter leading to aridification. • We used historical photos of the Pro-Namib and Namib Desert to test this forecast. • Correlations between historical climate values and vegetation change were analysed. • Contrary to expectations, woody plant cover has increased at most locations. • Past trends of increased rainfall and fog predict environmental futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will likely impact rainfall characteristics in particular locations; the amount, seasonality, variability and spatial patterns. In developing countries, this presents challenges for rural smallholder farmers as their livelihoods are largely based on rain-fed practices. Changes in climate patterns could increase farmers' vulnerability and the need for intervention. In this paper, we develop new metrics of analysis motivated by qualitative research with smallholder farmers. Previous research found that farmers' understanding of historical rainfall change is accurate, yet diverge from some research studies. We analyze meteorological station rainfall data using metrics that are familiar to smallholders. Farmers' perceptions of rainfall in southern Ethiopia were explored through interviews conducted in three communities. Our findings identified some forms of convergence, as well as divergence, in farmers' perception of rainfall trends and meteorological station data results. In asking the question 'Why do data based on farmer experiences of rainfall variability differ from meteorological station data?', we show that using existing data and applying farmer-influenced metrics can improve the information shared with farmers. We argue that, under further climate change, it will be increasingly important to convey meteorological information to farmers in ways that are relevant to them and their agricultural livelihoods. • Smallholder farmer experiences and climate science often diverge. • We develop new metrics motivated by research with smallholders. • New metrics and analyses can bridge some divergences. • Methods developed are relevant for communicating climate science with farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]