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Revealing the long-term development trajectory and peak scenarios of the urban residential building sector is crucial for formulating targeted emission reduction strategies and contributing to achieving the "Dual carbon" target. Given that, significant variables affecting carbon emissions from urban residential buildings (URBCE) at both macro and end-use building levels are identified in this study. Furthermore, an innovative dynamic simulation model is developed by integrating the Monte Carlo simulation model with the Kaya identity model, taking into account the uncertainties of the variables. Subsequently, the long-term evolution trajectories, potential emission peaks, and peak time of the URBCE close to 2060 in China's hot summer and cold winter (HSCW) zone are simulated. Results indicate that URBCE is expected to reach its peak of 272.43 Mt CO 2 in 2040 under the baseline scenario. Through the dynamic simulation, the probable peak time of energy consumption in the HSCW zone is 2044 (±1.85), with a peak of 145.42 (±6.91) Mtce, and the possible peak time of carbon emissions is probably 2039 (±1.60), with a peak of 271.93 (±13.40) Mt CO 2. According to dynamic sensitivity analysis, carbon emission factor, per capita residential space, and heating energy intensity can promote the peak size and timing. These findings lay a robust foundation for the formulation of regionally specific carbon reduction targets and initiatives. Dynamic simulation results of peaking time and peak value of URBEC and URBCE. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid development of urbanization in China inevitably leads to a sharp increase in building energy consumption, and Passive House (PH) have received much attention in China in recent years. In this paper, the annual energy demand (AED) and summer discomfort hours (SUH) of PH are used as optimization objectives to establish a set of design solutions for multi-objective optimization (MTO) and economic analysis of a PH in Shandong Province, China. It is found that (1) the algorithm based on nearest neighbor component analysis (NCA) feature extraction applies to the sensitivity analysis of multivariate nonlinear high-dimensional data, and the NCA-GA-RBF neural network technique is proposed, which has significantly improved the goodness of fit and generalization ability for AED and SUH. (2) The NSGA-II genetic algorithm is used for the optimization search, and the results show that the overall improvement rates of AED and SUH are 25.5% and 21.6%, respectively, among the nine solutions after comprehensive evaluation; (3) Finally, the optimal scheme of energy saving and the optimal scheme of the economy are selected for economic evaluation. By comparing the economics of the two options and the improvement rates of AEDs and SUHs, the guidelines for design decision-makers are provided. In summary, the design scheme of this paper is forward-looking and reference-oriented and provides some reference suggestions for the development of PH in China. • The NCA algorithm is suitable for multivariate nonlinear sensitivity analysis. • NCA-GA-RBF has stronger and more stable generalization ability and accuracy. • In this paper, climate is the main factor affecting thermal parameters. • Global costs have a stronger economic interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study measures the "real" total-factor energy efficiency (TFEE) of the construction industry with data from 30 Chinese provinces (excluding Tibet) from 2006 to 2015 using the DEA model combined with the TFEE algorithm. The floor space under construction is considered to be an output indicator in addition to the traditional economic output under the TFEE framework. Next, the spatial distribution of the TFEE of construction industry among those provinces is detected and possible reasons are analyzed. Results indicate that, most of Chinese provincial regions are energy inefficient in construction industry during the research period. Conversely, the three provinces of Beijing, Hainan and Zhejiang have optimal efficiency, which constitutes the efficiency frontier of energy consumption throughout China. There exists divergence among 30 provinces and three regions as for TFEE, but the divergence decreases and manifests the convergence feature. Moreover, among the three main regions, central and eastern regions' TFEE of the construction industry are higher than the figure for the western region. By comparison, we found that the TFEE evaluation considering floor space under construction is more accurate and rational than without considering the floor space. On the basis of these findings, some policy implications are provided for improving Chinese energy efficiency, especially for less developed regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization has an important impact on building energy consumption. Unfortunately, whether the later-urbanized provincial regions are more energy-efficient than those early-urbanized regions in the building sector is still unclear. This study innovatively adopts the difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the event effect of urbanization on building energy intensity with China's provincial evidence from 2000–2015. Moreover, its influence mechanism is identified with the mediating effect model. Results demonstrate that: (1) The building energy intensity is higher in provincial regions where the urbanization rate reached 45% earlier, indicating that the later-urbanized regions are more energy-efficient. (2) Considering heterogeneity, the event of urbanization rate reaching 45% contributes positively to building energy intensity in the eastern and central regions, but the effect in the western region is insignificant. This can further validate the later-mover advantage of the urbanization. (3) Regarding influence mechanism, urbanization can drive building energy intensity by increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry and population density or reducing the proportion of building coal consumption and the plot ratio of the urban area. This study can facilitate the related theoretical and practical exploration of the event effect of urbanization on energy consumption, which is conducive to formulating differentiated energy-conservation strategies. [Display omitted] • The DID model is applied to explore the event effect of urbanization on the building energy intensity. • The effect of urbanization on building energy intensity is explored considering regional heterogeneity. • The influence mechanism of urbanization on building energy consumption is investigated. • Later-urbanized regions are more energy-efficient in the building sector. • Urbanization can improve building energy intensity by potential mediating variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]