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Summary: The overall goal of the present study is to show through a simulation experiment the value of adaptive management under climatic variability and change. The Northern California water resources management system is used as an example of a multi-agency, multi-site, multi-objective water resources management system that supports a trillion dollar economy to demonstrate the utility of the methods and to exemplify the assessment studies. Simulations are performed using an adaptation of the Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) system of Northern California with 6-hourly 1.4° input from the CCSM3.0 climate model for historical/control (1970–2019) and future periods (2050–2099). The present paper examines the assessment of the hydroclimatological sensitivities and a companion paper () examines the assessment of reservoir management sensitivities. The future period was based on the moderate CCSM3.0 A1B scenario. The INFORM system includes an intermediate complexity regional model for dynamic downscaling of the CCSM3.0 scenario output to produce surface precipitation and temperature fields with a 10×10km2 resolution, and snow–soil-channel modeling of all the watersheds upstream of the major reservoirs in Northern California. The flow results indicate a shift in the monthly average flow volume toward earlier times in the year and higher flow variability for the future period. Higher average temperatures in the future period and, consequently, earlier snow pack melt are mainly responsible for these flow changes. Both daytime and nighttime average monthly temperatures are higher in the simulation of the future period for the entire domain with the northern catchments experiencing higher temperature increases. Simulated monthly average precipitation for the future period is higher in the southern high Sierras and lower in the northern drainage basins than the historical period precipitation. The uncertainty in the assessments for Northern California mentioned may be estimated with additional simulations similar to those shown in this work using high spatial and temporal resolution output from different climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper presents an analysis on the hydrological regimes from several rivers flowing from the western slope of the Andes Cordillera. We compiled a database of 40 unimpaired average monthly streamflow records located in central and southern Chile, spanning the region between latitudes 30°S and 40°S and the period between years 1961 and 2006. River categories encompass snowmelt, mixed and rainfall dominated watersheds. The water year hydrograph center of timing (CT) is used as an indicator of flow regime and as a proxy for streamflow distribution throughout the year. The CT for each river is correlated to local climatic variables such as seasonal temperature and precipitation, and to large-scale circulation indexes. We assess CT trends using the Mann–Kendall test for varying time windows within the study period. Overall results for the 1961–2006 period show a significant (95% confidence level) negative trend (CT date shifting towards earlier in the year) for 23 out of the 40 analyzed series. However, when studying time windows within the entire period there seems to be a break in the trend during the late 1970s, with positive or null changes for the latter half of the study period for most of the stations analyzed. We found that even though the CT is significantly correlated (r >0.5) to temperature indexes in the snowfed watersheds, there has been no significant change in CT timing for most of these watersheds despite documented warming on the region. CT for all types of watersheds present clear correlation to precipitation indexes (r >0.8), and we observed high and significant correlation between CT and ONI, SOI and MEI indexes for all the study region: higher (lower) precipitation amounts during El Niño (La Niña), rather than temperature variations, seem to be the most important factor controlling CT timing during these episodes. In order of importance, the CT showed higher correlation with annual precipitation amounts and timing, MEI, ONI and SOI, mean winter and spring temperature, and finally PDO. The detected trends are consistent only with trends in precipitation, as rivers that showed high correlation to temperature do not show any trend. These conclusions suggest that rivers on the region show a different response to temperature changes when compared to rivers of similar regime in the northern hemisphere, and that precipitation amount and timing are the source of most of the variability in streamflow timing for both snowmelt and rainfall dominated watersheds. Temperature induced variability in streamflow timing should be studied with more precise hydrological models, as the CT has a complex behavior due to multiple climatical dependencies. Studying such behavior using only historical data might be insufficient for drawing more precise conclusions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]