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Influenza pandemics are associated with severe morbidity, mortality, and social and economic disruption. Every summer in the United States, youths attending agricultural fairs are exposed to genetically diverse influenza A viruses (IAVs) circulating in exhibition swine, resulting in over 450 lab-confirmed zoonotic infections since 2010. Exhibition swine represent a small, defined population (-1.5% of the U.S. herd), presenting a realistic opportunity to mitigate a pandemic threat by reducing IAV transmission in the animals themselves. Through intensive surveillance and genetic sequencing of IAVs in exhibition swine in six U.S. states in 2018 (n-212), we characterized how a heterogeneous circuit of swine shows, comprising fairs with different sizes and geographic coverage, facilitates IAV transmission among exhibition swine and into humans. Specifically, we identified the role of an earlyseason national show in the propagation and spatial dissemination of a specific virus (H1-2) that becomes dominant among exhibition swine and is associated with the majority of zoonotic infections in 2018. These findings suggest that a highly targeted mitigation strategy, such as postponing swine shows for 1 to 2 weeks following the early-season national show, could potentially reduce IAV transmission in exhibition swine and spillover into humans, and this merits further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fifth wave of the H7N9 influenza epidemic in China was distinguished by a sudden increase in human infections, an extended geographic distribution, and the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Genetically, some H7N9 viruses from the fifth wave have acquired novel amino acid changes at positions involved in mammalian adaptation, antigenicity, and hemagglutinin cleavability. Here, several human low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) and HPAI H7N9 virus isolates from the fifth epidemic wave were assessed for their pathogenicity and transmissibility in mammalian models, as well as their ability to replicate in human airway epithelial cells. We found that an LPAI virus exhibited a similar capacity to replicate and cause disease in two animal species as viruses from previous waves. In contrast, HPAI H7N9 viruses possessed enhanced virulence, causing greater lethargy and mortality, with an extended tropism for brain tissues in both ferret and mouse models. These HPAI viruses also showed signs of adaptation to mammalian hosts by acquiring the ability to fuse at a lower pH threshold than other H7N9 viruses. All of the fifth-wave H7N9 viruses were able to transmit among cohoused ferrets but exhibited a limited capacity to transmit by respiratory droplets, and deep sequencing analysis revealed that the H7N9 viruses sampled after transmission showed a reduced amount of minor variants. Taken together, we conclude that the fifth-wave HPAI H7N9 viruses have gained the ability to cause enhanced disease in mammalian models and with further adaptation may acquire the ability to cause an H7N9 pandemic. IMPORTANCE The potential pandemic risk posed by avian influenza H7N9 viruses was heightened during the fifth epidemic wave in China due to the sudden increase in the number of human infections and the emergence of antigenically distinct LPAI and HPAI H7N9 viruses. In this study, a group of fifth-wave HPAI and LPAI viruses was evaluated for its ability to infect, cause disease, and transmit in small-animal models. The ability of HPAI H7N9 viruses to cause more severe disease and to replicate in brain tissues in animal models as well as their ability to fuse at a lower pH threshold than LPAI H7N9 viruses suggests that the fifth-wave H7N9 viruses have evolved to acquire novel traits with the potential to pose a higher risk to humans. Although the fifth-wave H7N9 viruses have not yet gained the ability to transmit efficiently by air, continuous surveillance and risk assessment remain essential parts of our pandemic preparedness efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]