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Objective. To carry out the research on the vulnerability evaluation and influencing factors of the tourism economic system is the objective requirement of formulating the scientific development strategy of the tourism economy and improving the quality of regional tourism development. Methods. Based on the vulnerability analysis of tourism economic system based on BP neural network (BPNN), this paper takes the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as the research object and selects 14 index data. The mean and standard deviation of the calculated weight values are used to formulate evaluation criteria for the tourism system. Results. The BP neural network (BPNN) model was used to predict the distribution law of vulnerability data within the standard range of the Greater Bay Area after 2020, obtained the spatial distribution law of vulnerability in the geographic structure distribution of the Greater Bay Area, and determined the vulnerability analysis framework and evaluation method. Conclusion. The cities in the Greater Bay Area should first pay attention to the industrial structure; increase financial investment; enhance the attractiveness of tourist destinations, in-depth development of tourism resources, and rational design of tourism products; help reduce the vulnerability of the tourism economic system; and improve regional self-recovery capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]