Among the many indicators of child welfare, rates of child and infant mortality and the prevalance of child labour are especially important, particularly in the context of developing countries. This paper estimates and simulates a model of child welfare based on recently released data for the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. The results show that some policies, like raising female literacy rates or reducing inequality in land holdings, could have unexpected effects, while the effects of other policies, like reducing poverty or improving infrastructure, are more predictable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]