Search

This study was undertaken to evaluate how future uncertain climate-related hydrological responses and low and highflow frequencies affect local hydrology up to the 2100, depending on different Global Circulation Models (GCM) and different Concentration Scenarios (CS). To this end, daily total precipitation and daily mean temperature data were used for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 CSs by employing GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR). In the study, the years 1971–2000 were chosen as the baseline period. Future streamflow predictions were modeled by machine learning. The models were calibrated with baseline period data and future streamflow values were predicted by using the best Streamflow Prediction Model during the 2055s (2041–2070) and 2085s (2071–2100) periods. Flow Duration Curves from the streamflow predictions were obtained and by using them, discharges corresponding to 95% probability of exceedance for lowflow and 5% probability of exceedance for highflow were calculated. According to the findings, it is predicted that there will be decrease of approximately 21% in lowflow discharges and approximately 30% in highflow discharges. This prediction has suggested water resources managers to implement mitigation measures to climate change in Eastern Black Sea Basin and most probably in Türkiye, especially in the context of continuity of aquatic life and sustainable water supply. It is expected that the paper will take a very important place in estimating and evaluating the expected changes in basin hydrology in the coming years, especially in the highflows and lowflows, which are the key concepts in hydroelectric power generation and in flood management. • Development of streamflow prediction model for climatic projection data. • Streamflow estimation using limited input data in small catchment. • Obtaining far future streamflow for water resources pre-planning. • Discussion of the impact of climate change on daily streamflow extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research paper proposes a novel multi-model approach, integrating the CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM framework, to assess the combined impacts of climate change and land use change on the potential of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems. By considering both climatic variables and land use patterns, this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how these factors influence CPV performance in the context of a changing environment. The proposed methodology offers valuable insights into the future viability and sustainability of CPV technology, enabling informed decision-making for policymakers, energy planners, and investors in the Middle East and Africa. As a result, the ability of the hybrid evolutionary CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM to predict the potential of CPV energy output for assessing the impacts of climate change on it was investigated in Alice Springs, the Middle East, and Africa. The outcome showed that the hybrid model significantly outperformed the other machine learning approaches. The fitted model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on CPV generation in Alice Springs, Australia, as well as the Middle East's and Africa's comparable climatic conditions. According to the study, climate change had the greatest impact on solar CPV energy production in Alice Springs, where it decreased the most by 8.577% under moderate forcing scenarios (SSP245) during the boreal summer season; moderately in the Middle East, where it decreased the mode by 2.316% under mitigation scenarios (SSP126) during the boreal summer season; and extremely minimally in Africa, where it decreased the mode by 1.263% under the far future sequencing period (2051–2099). Climate change also increased solar CPV energy production significantly in the Middle East in the far future sequencing period (2051–2099), as well as in Alice Springs, Australia, and Africa in the near future sequencing period (2015–2050). The strongest forcing scenario (SSP585) increased by 7.644% during the boreal autumn season in Africa; moderately increased by 6.502% during the boreal spring season in the Middle East; and had the least beneficial effects in Alice Springs, Australia, with increases of 5.538% during the boreal winter season. On an annual basis, all three regions showed a similar trend. Climate change (CLC) and urban expansion (URE) were also investigated in the Middle East and Africa for their effects on changes in solar CPV energy output. URE had a greater impact in Africa than the Middle East under the effective scenario, with a URE value of 45.45% for Africa and 20.15% for the Middle East, whereas CLC had a greater impact in the Middle East than Africa, with a CLC value of 29.01% compared to 5.47% for Africa. CLC and CPV residual factors, on the other hand, have a greater impact in the Middle East than in Africa, with effects of 29.01% and 50.83%, respectively, compared to 5.47% and 49.09%. The potential difference that drives the remediation of specific pollutants lies in the application of advanced technologies and sustainable practices. By exploring innovative solutions, such as using renewable energy sources like concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems, we can effectively mitigate the impacts of climate change and land use changes on pollutant concentrations. These technologies have the potential to significantly reduce pollution levels and create a cleaner and healthier environment for future generations. Assessing the CPV potential in different regions like Alice Springs, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa allows us to identify areas with high solar energy resources that can be harnessed for efficient pollutant remediation. Implementing prompt climate mitigation and adaptation measures is crucial for achieving a net-zero energy transition in the Middle East and Africa by 2050. In this context, prioritizing solar energy as the primary source of renewable energy is imperative for successful low-carbon economic planning in these regions. • CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM outperforms other applicable models • By 2100, the CPV potential in Alice Springs could increase by 0.082–5.338% at 1.5 °C • By 2100, the Middle East's CPV potential could increase by 0.021–0.221% at 1.5 °C. • By 2100, Africa's CPV potential could increase by 0.133–7.644% at 1.5 °C. • Climate change has harmed Alice Springs and the Middle East more than Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the climate change influence on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) using a case study conducted on Penang Island in Malaysia, a region prone to landslides. This study was carried out due to limited research assessing the climate change effect on LSM, considering rainfall and temperature. The study employs climate factors, including temperature and rainfall, alongside 12 causative factors in a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model to develop LSM. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to derive climate change projections under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Data preparation and normalization are performed using ArcGIS 10.7. Based on the results, future annual rainfall and daily temperatures are expected to rise under both scenarios, with RCP8.5 exhibiting more significant climatic changes. The LSM zonation is impacted more significantly under RCP8.5 due to the severity of climate change. LSM under an observation period achieves the best results (area under the curve (AUC) = 85.75, average statistical index (SI) = 94.48%, kappa = 0.885), followed by LSM under RCP4.5 (AUC = 84.38, average SI = 93.54%, kappa = 0.865) and LSM under RCP8.5 (AUC = 84.13, average SI = 93.34%, kappa = 0.860), demonstrating their reliability and adequate performance. These LSMs can assist local authorities in designating critical areas for monitoring and implementing an early-warning system to respond more effectively to landslide risks caused by climate change. However, the study's limitation is considering only two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Future research should encompass a broader range of climate scenarios to develop the most reliable LSM, given the high uncertainty associated with climate change. • Climate change was projected using the SDSM model. • Climate change has more changes under RCP8.5. • Climate change, directly and indirectly, affect slope stability. • LHM was developed using the SVM model under the climate change effect. • Climate change has a significant impact on landslide distribution zoning in LHM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the years, many countries across the world have increasingly experienced the collapse of their ecosystems, leading to an elevated increase on the demand for freshwater resources. Botswana is not an exception. The problem of disrupted potable water supply is widespread across the country. However, the physical shortage of water in the country is arguably coupled by lack of effective and efficient water supply and management institutions and water infrastructure. Most of the research on water scarcity in Botswana is mostly inclined towards physical water scarcity, while little is investigated on how the design of institutions for water management in developing countries leads to water scarcity. Furthermore, the premises of most research is neoclassical economics ideas, thereby offering solutions as developing and/or reforming water markets and water pricing mechanisms, among other findings. This paper analyses potable water supply and access in Botswana within a new institutional economics paradigm. The study examines key features of water institutions in Botswana on how they affect water supply and access, applying new institutional economics fundamentals. The study extensively uses various secondary data sources including weather and climate reports, policy documents, maps and charts and survey data, among others. The paper argues that to achieve effective water allocation in Botswana, there is a need to balance social and environmental water resource needs through water policies and other statutory enactments, as well as the crafting of practical management strategies. The country, therefore, requires not only a swift institutional transformation in the water sector, but also needs practical governance structure necessary for implementing integrated water resources management and driving water resources towards sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and rapid urbanization are important factors restricting future land use. Situational analysis, as an important foundation for the optimization of land use, needs to focus on the impact of climate factors and socio-economic factors. In this paper, the Markov model and the DLS (Simulation of Land System Dynamics) model are combined for the first time, and the land use pattern in 2020 is simulated based on the data of land use in 2000 and 2010 as well as the climate, soil, topography and socio-economic factors of Yunnan Province. In his paper, we took Yunnan Province as the case study area, and selected 12 driving factors by logistic regression method, then the land use demands and layout of Yunnan Province in 2020 has been forecasted and simulated under business as usual (BAU) scenario and farmland protection (FP) scenario and the changes in ecosystem service value has been calculated. The result shows that: (1) after the regression analysis and ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) test, the 12 factors selected in this paper have a strong ability to explain the land use change in Yunnan Province. (2) Under the two scenarios, the significant reduction of arable land area is a common feature of land use change in Yunnan Province in the future, and its main land use type will be construction land. However, under FP scenario, the current situation where construction land encroach on arable land will be improved. Compared with the change from 2000 to 2010, the trend of arable land, forest land, water area, construction land and unused land will be the same under the two scenarios, whereas the change trend of grassland was opposite. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the value of ecosystem services in Yunnan Province is on the rise, but the ecosystem service value under FP scenario is higher than that of the ecosystem services under BAU scenario. In general, land use in 2020 in Yunnan Province continues the pattern of 2010, but there are also significant spatial differences. Under the BAU scenario, the construction land is mainly in the south of Lijiang City and the northeastern part of Kunming. Under the FP scenario, the new construction land is concentrated near the Lashi dam in northern Yunnan Province, and the high-quality arable land in the valley will be better protected. The research results can provide reference for the optimization of land use pattern in Yunnan Province, and provide scientific basis for land use management and planning. Based on the value of ecosystem services, we should implement the policy of strict protection of arable land, both to ensure food supply and promote the healthy development of ecological environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Debris flow caused high number of deaths among many of geohazard events in Malaysia due to the characteristics of sudden outburst and high energy density. This paper reviewed the initial mechanism and characteristics of existing debris flow in Malaysia. Almost all debris flows occurrence were initiated on natural terrains as opposed to other forms of landslides. Most of the events were induced by the rainfall. This is due to the geographic locations of Malaysia that lies on the equator with tropical climates and received abundant rainfall of 2400 mm annually. Intense and heavy rainfall increases the water content and pore water pressures within the residual soil that could trigger landslides. Thus, an intense and prolonged rainfall has become the major triggering factor for debris flow. This review article focus on clarifies the characterization of historical debris flow events that had an impact the infrastructure in Malaysia. In summary, this review attempts to systematically summarize the existing research on the mechanism of debris flow in Malaysia to provide further reference on debris flow prevention. Comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms and the behaviour of the debris flow will assist to the fundamental hazard and provide proper planning for structural measures. • The initial mechanism and characteristics of existing debris flow in Malaysia. • The effects are more severe due to the climate change and human activities. • Formation of natural dam also can produce a disastrous debris flow. • Reality ofthe occurrence in Malaysia known as cascading geological process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change is expected to alter rainfall regimes across most parts of the world. The implications of this could be more severe in arid environments where rainfall is limited and highly variable in space and time. However, lack of good quality data, of sufficient record length and spatial coverage usually restricts model development and performance geared towards assessing the effects of climate change in these areas. This paper presents an analysis of rainfall and climate data in order to determine the time of change in rainfall series and identify possible correlations between rainfall and temperature. In addition, the paper aims to make predictions of future rainfall patterns in Botswana. This is achieved by using historical rainfall and climate data from rainfall stations spread across Botswana from 1965 to 2008. In addition, large scale reanalysis data from NCAR/NCEP and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data were used to augment the limited observed spatial climate data series when developing a rainfall model. Temperature and ENSO indices have been used to predict rainfall regimes for the present climate. Based on these, the effects of climate change were quantified using a stochastic generalised linear rainfall model (GLM) driven by outputs of global climate models (GCMs). The results indicate that temperature is a significant rainfall predictor in Botswana compared to ENSO indices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change and rainfall variability poses serious risks to rainfed farming communities in the semi-dry agro-ecological zones of Zimbabwe. Its impacts include erratic and unpredictable seasonal rainfall, floods and cyclones. These impacts are more magnified in marginal rainfed agricultural areas characterized by low and erratic precipitation leading to low and unpredictable levels of crop production. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being advocated as a more sustainable response that enhances livelihoods. Through an examination of key debates from climate-science scholars, this paper examines the social research and action priorities that can be pursued in order to build the resilience of rural communities who rely on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods. The paper examines the nature of adaptation processes and subsequently identifies research themes, action priorities and approaches that can generate more robust responses to climate change at various levels. The study found out that despite the weaknesses identified in Zimbabwean water and agricultural policies, there are a number of specific actions that researchers, policy-makers and communities can take to enhance adaptation capacity. Systematic assessment of rural risk and vulnerability and participatory identification of possible solutions can enable the rural poor to get better access to options, assets and the services they require to improve their livelihoods. This also enables the identification and improvement of more adaptation options that the farmers themselves have already been trying out for many years. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Precipitation is one of the most important elements of the hydrological cycle, and extreme events associated with precipitation are considered a key factor in several types of human activities, including agriculture, for instance. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to evaluate extreme precipitation indices for the past century, and to analyse the possible tendency of future precipitation conditions for this century for the Carpathian Basin. Several climate extreme indices have been analysed according to the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group (formed at the end of the 1990s) on climate change detection. These precipitation indices include the number of wet days using several threshold values, e.g., 20mm (RR20), 10mm (RR10), 5mm (RR5), 1mm (RR1), 0.1mm (RR0.1), the upper quartile and the 95th percentile of daily precipitation in the base-period 1961–1990 (R75 and R95); the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD); the highest 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1); the greatest 5-day rainfall total (Rx5); the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events (R95T); simple daily intensity index (SDII), etc. Our results suggest that regional intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation increased in the Carpathian Basin during the second half of the 20th century, while the total precipitation decreased and the mean climate became slightly drier during the whole 20th century. In the second part of this paper, several IPCC emission scenarios have been compared and GCM outputs have been analysed in order to project precipitation conditions in the Carpathian Basin for the 21st century. These climate simulations suggest that climate of this region may become drier in summer and wetter in winter, which highlight the importance of hydrological and agricultural planning in Hungary. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Urban areas of developing countries are facing increasing water scarcity and it is possible that this problem may be further aggravated due to rapid changes in the hydro-environment at different scales, like those of climate and land-cover. Due to water scarcity and limitations to the development of new water resources, it is prudent to shift from the traditional ‘supply based management’ to a ‘demand management’ paradigm. Demand management focuses on measures that make better and more efficient use of limited supplies, often at a level significantly below standard service levels. This paper particularly focuses on the intermittent water supplies in the cities of developing countries. Intermittent water supplies need to be adopted due to water scarcity and if not planned properly, results in inequities in water deliveries to consumers and poor levels of service. It is therefore important to recognise these realities when designing and operating such networks. The standard tools available for design of water supply systems often assume a continuous, unlimited supply and the supplied water amount is limited only be the demand, making them unsuitable for designing intermittent supplies that are governed by severely limited water availability. This paper presents details of new guidelines developed for the design and control of intermittent water distribution systems in developing countries. These include a modified network analysis simulation coupled with an optimal design tool. The guidelines are driven by a modified set of design objectives to be met at least cost. These objectives are equity in supply and people driven levels of service (PDLS) expressed in terms of four design parameters namely, duration of the supply; timings of the supply; pressure at the outlet (or flow-rate at outlet); and others such as the type of connection required and the locations of connections (in particular for standpipes). All the four parameters are calculated using methods and techniques that recognise the relationship between outflow at a water connection and the pressure experienced at that connection. The paper presents a case study where it is demonstrated that the new guidelines can provide an equitable and acceptable level of service throughout the design horizon of the project. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The research project GLOWA-Danube, financed by the German Federal Government, is investigating long-term changes in the water cycle of the upper Danube river basin (77,000km2) in light of global climatic change. Its aim is to build a fully integrated decision-support tool “DANUBIA” that combines the competence of 11 different research institutes in domains covering all major aspects governing the water cycle—from the formation of clouds, to groundwater flow patterns, to the behaviour of the water consumer. Both the influence of natural changes in the ecosystem, such as climate change, and changes in human behaviour, such as changes in land use or water consumption, are considered. DANUBIA is comprised of 15 individual disciplinary models that are connected via customized interfaces that facilitate network-based parallel calculations. The strictly object-oriented DANUBIA architecture was developed using the graphical notation tool UML (Unified Modeling Language) and has been implemented in Java code. All models use the same spatial discretisation for the exchange of data (1×1km grid cells) but are using different time steps. The representation of a vast number of relevant physical and social processes that occur at different spatial and temporal scales is a very demanding task. Newly developed up- and downscaling procedures [Rojanschi, V., 2001. Effects of upscaling for a finite-difference flow model. Master’s Thesis, Institut für Wasserbau, Universität Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany] and a sophisticated time controller developed by the computer sciences group [Hennicker, R., Barth, M., Kraus, A., Ludwig, M., 2002. DANUBIA: A Web-based modelling and decision support system for integrative global change research in the upper Danube basin. In: GSF (Ed.), GLOWA, German Program on Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle Status Report 2002. GSF, Munich, pp. 35–38; Kraus, A., Ludwig, M., 2003. GLOWA-Danube Papers Technical Release No. 002 (Danubia Framework), Software-Release No.: 0.9.2, Documentation Version: 0.10, Release Date: 27 March 2003] are required to solve the emerging problems. After a first successful public demonstration of the DANUBIA package (nine models) in May 2002 [Mauser, W., Stolz, R., Colgan, A., 2002. GLOWA-Danube: integrative techniques, scenarios and strategies regarding global change of the water cycle. In: GSF (Ed.), GLOWA, German Program on Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle (Phase I, 2000–2003) Status Report 2002. GSF, Munich, pp. 31–34], the research consortium is now preparing a first validation run of DANUBIA for the period 1995–1999 with all 15 models. After successful completion of the validation, a scenario run based on IPCC climate scenarios [IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. In: Watson, R.T., Core Writing Team (Eds.), A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 398pp] for a five year period between 2025 and 2040 will follow at the end of 2003. The research group “Groundwater and Water Resources Management” at the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, Universität Stuttgart, is contributing both a three-dimensional groundwater flow model of the catchment and an agent-based model for simulating water supply and distribution. This paper gives a general overview of the GLOWA-Danube project and describes the groundwater modeling segment. Nickel et al. deal with the water supply model in a second contribution to this special issue. A three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model consisting of four main layers has been developed and is in a continual state of refinement (MODFLOW, [McDonald, M.G., Harbaugh, A.W., 1988. A modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model: US Geological Survey Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, Washington, USA (book 6, Chapter A1)]). One main research focus has been on the investigation of upscaling techniques to meet the requirement of a fixed 1×1km cell size. This cell size is compulsory for all models in DANUBIA in order to facilitate a one to one parameter exchange. In a second stage, a transport model (nitrogen) will be added (MT3D: [Zheng, C., Hathaway, D.-L., 1991. MT3D: a new modular three-dimensional transport model and its application in predicting the persistence and transport of dissolved compounds from a gasoline spill, with implications for remediation. Association of Ground Water Scientists and Engineers Annual Meeting on Innovative Ground Water Technologies for the ’90s, National Ground Water Association, Westerville, Ohio, USA. Ground Water 29 (5)]. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

It is generally recognized that the temperature profile in a borehole is affected by both groundwater flow and past climatic change. Solid earth scientists seek to remove such effects from a temperature profile for the corrections of terrestrial heat flow values. It has also been well recognized by hydrogeologists that the distribution of subsurface temperature is affected by groundwater flow and that those temperature data can be used to evaluate the direction and velocity of groundwater flow. There are studies dealing with the effect of surface temperature change on the subsurface thermal regime in the solid geophysical literature, and there are studies on the effect of groundwater flow on subsurface temperatures in the hydrogeological literature. However, there are few studies including both effects. This paper intends to provide some evidence of interactions between the two competing effects that we can see at depths about 30–300 m in Japanese basin or plains.We have compiled shallow subsurface temperature–depth profiles at depths about 30–300 m in Japanese basins and plains. Number of thermal data set is 15 areas from Hokkaido to Kyushu at present, and we can classify thermal data sets into four categories depending on the thermal regime. This paper, moreover, describes details of the subsurface thermal regimes in the Yamagata Basin and the Nobi Plain. Thermal regime in the Yamagata Basin was calculated by two-dimensional analytical solution and estimated the effect of regional groundwater flow. Result of three-dimensional heat transport simulation in the Nobi Plain shows that there are two effects of regional groundwater flow and surface temperature warming owing to urbanization on subsurface thermal regime. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper evaluates the risk of a water crisis – a substantial, sudden reduction in water supply – in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA), posed by climate threats and the vulnerability of its water supply system. Our analysis of long-term precipitation, water supply and water availability data reveals that the MMA is highly vulnerable to recurring periods of exceptionally low precipitation and scarce surface water availability. We identify two episodes in the recent past (1998 and 2013) when the MMA water supply system almost collapsed as reservoirs neared depletion in the face of abnormally dry weather. Furthermore our climate projections point to warmer and drier future conditions for the region and consequently, heightened climate threats. We conclude that the risk of a water crisis in the MMA is substantial and probably will increase due to climate change. This establishes a clear and pressing need for a comprehensive package of adaptation measures to mitigate the consequences of a water crisis should one occur as well as to reduce the likelihood of such an event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests possible evidence of climate change in Mexico at the watershed level, based solely on historical data. The official Mexican climate dataset was used to find the best set of stations for each watershed. Maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall in ten watersheds are analyzed from 1970 to 2009. Maximum temperature trends show a significant increment in most of these watersheds. Furthermore, Daily Temperature Range (DTR) exhibits a positive trend (increments), thus implying an increase in temperature extremes. This study also shows that the difference between maximum and minimum monthly temperature trends is negatively correlated with monthly precipitation trends. As a result, land-use and land-cover changes could be the main drivers of climate change in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on land use change in China. Crop sown area is used as index to quantitatively analyze the temporal–spatial changes and the utilization of the agricultural land. A new concept is defined as potential multiple cropping index to reflect the potential sowing ability. The impacting mechanism, land use status and its surplus capacity are investigated as well. The main conclusions are as following; 1. During 1949–2010, the agricultural land was the greatest in amount in the middle of China, followed by that in the country’s eastern and western regions. The most rapid increase and decrease of agricultural land were observed in Xinjiang and North China respectively, Northwest China and South China is also changed rapid. The variation trend before 1980 differed significantly from that after 1980. 2. Agricultural land was affected by both natural and social factors, such as regional climate and environmental changes, population growth, economic development, and implementation of policies. In this paper, the effects of temperature and urbanization on the coverage of agriculture land are evaluated, and the results show that the urbanization can greatly affects the amount of agriculture land in South China, Northeast China, Xinjiang and Southwest China. 3. From 1980 to 2009, the extent of agricultural land use had increased as the surplus capacity had decreased. Still, large remaining potential space is available, but the future utilization of agricultural land should be carried out with scientific planning and management for the sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising water demand worldwide caused by climate change, urbanization and population expansion, poses increasing stress on groundwater as a resource. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) which is considered as one of the promising groundwater engineering approaches to water security especially in drought-occurring areas. As MAR techniques involve the intentional storage of water into an aquifer for subsequent recovery or for environmental benefits, considerable amount of research work in recent years has been carried out to alleviate the water crises as well as other related purposes. The objective of this paper is to present a review of MAR in terms of historical development, current situation and perspectives including demonstrating how promising the MAR is an approach. The review shows that the concept of MAR may have stemmed from early development of human society over two thousand years. The achievement of MAR is reviewed alongside its technologies, developed process for the implementation of MAR, as well as the applications in various fields. This review also identifies the common problems and challenges that render MAR's concept failure to be applicable in some settings. The reviewed literature has shown that MAR is expected to be increasingly applied in a wider range of scopes. Based on such conclusion, in this paper, it is recommended that further studies on MAR should focus on systematic clogging mechanism and prevention, the theory of seepage calculation, theory of infiltration for MAR, purification mechanism, and application of big data and artificial intelligence in MAR. • The historical development is over 2000 years and include four stages. • Managed aquifer recharge is expected to be applied to a wider range of conditions. • Research on the systematic clogging mechanism and prevention is to be strengthened. • Systematic research on purification mechanism is needed. • Big data analytics and artificial intelligence will be applied to managed aquifer recharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eastern China, a populous and economically developed area, is severely affected by various meteorological disasters under the background of global climate change. In recent years, urban waterlogs caused by heavy rainfall has become a major concern threatening urban safety and socioeconomic development. This paper aimed to reveal the spatial pattern of waterlogging risk in 89 prefecture-level cities of Eastern China by a comprehensive analysis on extreme rainfall, socioeconomic exposure and urban adaptability. Hazard intensity index was calculated on 20-year return period value of maximum daily precipitation. Exposure index was based on the total urban population and local gross domestic product, while adaptability index was an integrated evaluation of drainage pipeline density, river network density and greening rate of urban area. Risk assessment was a synthesis judgment of hazard intensity index, exposure index and urban adaptability index, according to which the cities in Eastern China were classified into five risk levels. The six cities with the highest level of waterlogging risk were Shenzhen, Beijing, Maoming, Yangjiang, Shanwei and Dongguan, which indicates relatively stronger intensity of meteorological hazard, higher density of socioeconomic exposure and the weakness of urban adaptability in these cities. The high risk cities would suffer much more losses than other cities in Eastern China when hit by an extreme rainfall. This paper could provide a scientific basis for urban waterlogging risk identification and governance, as well as for technical measures development and capacity building of disaster prevention and reduction. • A research framework and technical methods for urban waterlogging risk assessment were proposed. • An indicator system for waterlogging risk assessment was raised based on hazard, exposure and adaptability factors. • Urban adaptability of waterlogging disaster was evaluated based on drainage pipelines, river networks and greening level. • Taking Eastern China as a pilot, the paper presented a city risk ranking for urban waterlogs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To improve its ability to adapt to climate change, China has promised considerable carbon emission reduction and proposed the policy strategy of "energy revolution". Considering the lowest carbon emission intensity and the greatest mitigation task in the Eastern Economic Zone of China, this paper analyses the change of carbon emission intensity in Eastern China from 2000 to 2015. First, to prove the significance of carbon emission intensity, this paper studies the cointegration relationship between carbon emissions and the GDP. Afterwards, from the spatiotemporal perspective, this paper decomposes and analyses the carbon emission intensity of the whole country, Eastern China and the provinces of Eastern China and quantifies the impact of different factors. This paper finds that the energy structure of China and the East was in a relatively stable state during this period. In the past, the decrease in carbon emission intensity mainly depended on the improvement of sectoral emission efficiency, and the influence of industrial structure is growing. Furthermore, changes in the eastern region are similar to those in the whole country. The eastern region needs to give full play to its economic advantage in the future. On the spatial scale, GDP per capita and the ratio of tertiary industry have a significant impact on the spatial heterogeneity of carbon emission intensity in East China, while the ratio of secondary industry has few effects. Replacing energy-intensive industry with the service industry will be the focus of emission reduction in the future. • Verified the significance of carbon emission intensity in eastern China. • Identified the main drivers of changes in carbon intensity over the past fifteen years. • Considering the interannual variation of Q-value of stratification heterogeneity. • Analyzed the path of carbon emission reduction to adapt to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise in world population growth and its attendant rise in demand for food and living standards in addition to climate change scenarios continue to warrant the need for sustainable management of natural resources. The paper, therefore, analysed climate change actions and water demand management approaches employed by Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) listed companies to manage water resources. Fourteen of the twenty-four domestic companies were reviewed using self-completed, open ended questionnaires and secondary data. Thematic Analysis method of qualitative research was employed to analyse the textual data. The results revealed that water demand management (WDM) practices and strategies among companies ranged from, rainwater harvesting, water reclamation and reuse, water efficient fixtures and appliances, awareness/knowledge creation strategies and risk management. The unearthed information on private companies' holistic water use strategies could facilitate environmental sustainability and operational economic gains. • Limited water resources compel private sector to practice Water Demand Management. • Examples include rainwater harvesting, water reclamation and reuse. • Stock exchanges assist in shaping company's responses to water scarcity. • Climate action is an integral component of Water Demand Management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The scope of this paper is to give a consistent view of the low frequency sea level variability in the Adriatic Sea from both satellite altimetry and tide gauge records. We analyze 16years of sea level observations from multi-satellite altimetry and tide gauge records in the time interval 1993–2008. First, the impact of the corrections applied to the altimetry-derived sea level variations and the consistency of the altimetric and the tide gauge sea level observations are evaluated. Both observations are then used to characterize sea level trends, interannual variability and land vertical motion in the Adriatic region. Eight tide gauges along the coast show very coherent interannual sea level variations, with an increase in sea level before 2001 and decrease afterwards. The average of the eight de-seasoned time-series agrees with the basin average of the altimeter data, with correlation coefficient 0.84 and root mean square difference 12mm. The linear change is higher for altimetry than for tide gauges and strongly depends on the length of the time-interval, being 3.2±0.3mm/yr and 1.9±0.3mm/yr in the interval 1993–2008. The steric contribution to sea level change correlates well with the sea level suggesting that the low frequency variability is likely related to oceanic and climatic processes and mainly due to temperature and salinity variations. The decadal sea level variability is correlated in Adriatic and Eastern Mediterranean, anti-correlated in Adriatic and Ionian Sea. At a given location, the trend of the differences of sea level observations by tide gauges and co-located satellite altimetry gives the vertical land motion, if we assume that the sea level signals are truly common. We find trends statistically significant at the 90% confidence level at two locations, that indicate land uplift along the eastern coast in Rovinj (3.0±1.2mm/yr) and land subsidence in Marina di Ravenna (−1.5±1.1mm/yr), while at other locations, e.g. in Trieste (1.3±1.1mm/yr) the significance is lower. The results agree in general in sign with GPS derived rates, but not in magnitude, like in Marina di Ravenna, where the strong subsidence measured by GPS is related to the local anthropogenic subsidence. The differences are partly explained by the spatial distance between the tide gauge and the co-located altimeter locations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The longest series of instrumental observations have a number of problems in the early period. This paper is focused on the recovery of early indoor and outdoor observations in Padua and their transformation in terms of a modern series. The Padua series was started by Giovanni Poleni with outdoor observations in 1716–1718, but soon, the readings passed indoors (1725–1764) to join the directives of the Royal Society, London. The indoor readings were recovered within the EU project IMPROVE, but it was necessary to transform indoor observations into outdoor ones, and this was possible thanks to the presence of simultaneous indoor and outdoor observations by Morgagni in Padua and Beccari in Bologna. These parallel series were also useful to fill a short gap. Another problem was to reconstruct the calibration of the Amontons thermometer, which changed when Poleni moved to a new house. Also the problem of the use of variable and/or different sampling times was solved making reference to the trend of the daily cycles in the different seasons and under diverse weather conditions. The data analysis has shown a trend that appears similar to the well-known results (IPCC 2007) for the last 160yr but a less marked recent warming for winter and autumn. The 18th century was characterized by cold winters (culminated 1709 and 1740) and springs, and warm summers and autumns. A well-marked Bruckner cycle (35.8yr), continually repeated and attenuated, is visible for the period 1716–1930. The wide time scale and the repetition of warmer and colder periods over two-thirds of the series noted in Padua and other Mediterranean stations may induce us to suppose that such cycles could continue in the future, at least on the local scale. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Previous studies have shown that it is very difficult to distinguish human-induced changes from those caused by natural forcing. In this paper we try to quantify the influence of land use and water management on flows of the Upper Narew River in north-east Poland. Apart from climatic and land use changes, the Upper Narew catchment was changed by the construction of a storage reservoir at Siemianówka, near Bondary, on the upstream reach of the river. We apply four different approaches to analysing the changes in flow regime and catchment response for the periods before and after reservoir construction. First we estimate the cumulative distribution functions for low and high flow events. The second approach is a time series analysis of flow variation over the whole length of available data and the derivation of cumulative distribution functions for the flows and 0.25–0.75 quantiles followed by a statistical analysis of the number of events below and above the thresholds and their duration. The third approach consists of the application of the Wittenberg baseflow separation method and tests for changes in baseflow indices. In the fourth approach an analysis of changes in flow regime is performed by studying the changes in transfer function-based flow model parameters. Long-term changes in land use are assessed using previous studies of the catchment and the analysis of Corine land cover data and government yearbooks. The results show that different methods explain different aspects of changes in the catchment and flow regime due to climatic changes and changes in land use and water management practices. The analysis of cumulative distribution functions gave evidence of the influence of Siemianówka reservoir on low flows which was also confirmed by the low flow analysis using the Wittenberg approach. The STF analysis of flows indicates the existence of changes in flow regime that can be attributed to the roughness changes in the channel. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Water is a critical resource, and the shortage of freshwater resources worldwide will only become more critical as the world population increases and climate changes. The management of water resources provides a myriad of challenges, and, in light of advances in science, technology and policy making, now requires an integrated approach to be successful. Eutrophication and algal blooms are one of the most common and serious threats to the safety and security of water resources; however, despite advances in science and policy, the socio-economic consequences of the impact of such events on systems are still not well known. The economic cost of managing water quality issues is enormous, and can only benefit from the development of more integrated water management strategies. Research into areas related to water resources, such as management, policy, non-point source pollutants, wastewater, nutrients and water quality has increased significantly over the past 20years, and will continue to increase as stakeholders and managers strive to develop more environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable water resource management plans. This perspective paper also presents a summary of a selection of research that formed part of the deliberations of the International Symposium on Science, Technology and Policy for Water Pollution Control at the Watershed Scale, held in April 2009. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper verifies whether the water resources of the transboundary Limpopo River Basin are sufficient for the planned massive irrigation developments in the Mozambique part of this basin, namely 73,000ha, in addition to existing irrigation (estimated at 9400ha), and natural growth of common use irrigation (4000ha). This development includes the expansion of sugar cane production for the production of ethanol as a biofuel. Total additional water requirements may amount to 1.3×109 m3/a or more. A simple river basin simulation model was constructed in order to assess different irrigation development scenarios, and at two storage capacities of the existing Massingir dam. Many uncertainties surround current and future water availability in the Lower Limpopo River Basin. Discharge measurements are incomplete and sometimes inconsistent, while upstream developments during the last 25years have been dramatic and future trends are unknown. In Mozambique it is not precisely known how much water is currently consumed, especially by the many small-scale users of surface and shallow alluvial groundwater. Future impacts of climate change increase existing uncertainties. Model simulations indicate that the Limpopo River does not carry sufficient water for all planned irrigation. A maximum of approx. 58,000ha of irrigated agriculture can be sustained in the Mozambican part of the basin. This figure assumes that Massingir will be operated at increased reservoir capacity, and implies that only about 44,000ha of new irrigation can be developed, which is 60% of the envisaged developments. Any additional water use would certainly impact downstream users and thus create tensions. Some time will elapse before 44,000ha of new irrigated land will have been developed. This time could be used to improve monitoring networks to decrease current uncertainties. Meanwhile the four riparian Limpopo States are preparing a joint river basin study. In this study a methodology could be developed to estimate and safeguard water availability for those users who under the law do not need registration – but who do need water. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change is an additional threat that puts increased pressure on already stressed hydrological systems and water resources. The impacts of climate change are already visible given that temperature and rainfall variabilities have increased and intensified over the last two decades. Recent studies indicate the extreme vulnerability of Southern Africa to the impacts of climate change and recommend that appropriate adaptation measures be put in place. Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is listed among the specific adaptation measures that the water sector in Africa needs to undertake to cope with future climate change. At present, there is limited application of RWH, despite its high potential for alleviating the impacts of climate change on water security in many areas of Africa. The paper presents a methodology that enables water managers to incorporate the climate change component during the design phase of domestic RWH (DRWH) systems. The Roof model was used to calculate the optimum size of the RWH tank and appraise its water security (percentage of demand satisfied) under different scenarios (with and without climate change). Results indicate that the optimum RWH tank volume is 0.5m3 in the four quaternary catchments (QCs) studied with the humid QC, as expected, providing the highest water security of about 30%. On the basis of forecasted rainfall downscaled from six global circulation models, the ranges of water security attained by a 0.5m3 RWH tank are 10–15% in the arid QC, 15–20% in both the semi-arid and dry sub humid QCs and 30–40% in the humid QC. Furthermore, the high value of the water security climate induced index (γ >0.6) confirms the high susceptibility of South Africa to climate change and, therefore, the need for appropriate adaptation measures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: One of the most vulnerable regions in the Carpathian Basin is the Great Hungarian Plain, where small and shallow oxbows are endangered along river Tisza. The purpose of this paper is to determine how the global warming affects a typical oxbow, located on the floodplain of river Tisza, in Hungary. A coupled meteorological–hydraulic model is developed and applied for this oxbow. Results suggest that the monthly minimum water levels are expected to decrease, moreover, extreme drought events sometimes result temporary drying-up of the oxbow. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper addresses the emergent issues by the case study of Haihe River Basin in North China. The advantage of the water international study and the background for the cause of these problems from natural change and in particular human activity are analyzed. The key points are addressed as four aspects: (a) the study of the water cycle process impacted by climate change and high intensity human activity; (b) water utilization related to new economic partner change, such as saving water model; (c) study on eco-hydrology, and the interaction of water and ecology impacted by climate change and human activity; and (d) reasonable water allocation that includs water diversion from south to north and saving water issue in the local areas. Several suggestions are proposed both on the study on the water cycle, which is a very important base of water security in north China, and on the application study of water resources and eco-environmental rehabilitation. These key issues will benefit both the advantage of water science and the sustainable development in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the current water resources scenario in India, and recent work carried out in India to assess the climate change impact on hydrology and water resources. Issues that need to be addressed with respect to climate change/variability in sustainable water resources planning and management are discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates whether it is possible to find a solar signature in the current Earth’s climatic warming. The attempt seems audacious as, on one hand, solar output variability on the atmosphere is far to be understood, and on the other hand, there is evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years can be attributed to human activities. However, series of the annual global average temperature, from 1861 up to now are available, showing periods of warming and cooling that are statistically significant. From recent findings, it is also known that solar irradiance shows a variability and can be modeled today with a good accuracy over the last century. The idea was to compare the likelihood linear trends shown in the climatic data with those of the irradiance, during same well defined time ranges. Changes from 1861 to 1975 show an unexpected remarkable correlation, whereas the period 1976–2000 completely deviates from the previous analysis. The 1861–1975 set of data supports the suggestion of an influence of solar irradiance on global climate, which was checked as a natural forcing: the response is found to be λ =0.46°C/Wm−2, a quite reasonable value, bearing in mind the imprecision in the irradiance modeling. This analysis is also discussed in the scope of other forcings and uncertainties in the data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The enhanced greenhouse gas effect is expected to cause high temperature increase globally (1.0–3.5°C) and this will lead to an increase in precipitation in some regions while other regions will experience reduced precipitation (±20%). The impact of expected climate change will affect almost all aspects of human endeavour. The major focus of this paper is management of water resources under climate change for peace and prosperity in Swaziland. The impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources has been evaluated using general circulation model (GCM) results (rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, etc.) as inputs to a rainfall runoff model. The evaluation of the effect of climate change on hydrology and water resources in Swaziland has been carried out in three catchments namely: Mbuluzi, Komati and Ngwavuma. MAGICC model was used to simulate the climate parameters for Swaziland given the baseline conditions. Eleven GCMs were evaluated and three of them were found to simulate very well the observed precipitation for Swaziland. These GCMs are: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the United Kingdom Transient Resalient (UKTR) and the Canadian Climate Change Equilibrium (CCC-EQ). The three GCMs were used to project the temperature and precipitation changes for Swaziland for year 2075. This information was used to generate the temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration values for the three catchments for year 2075. This information was used as input data to a calibrated WatBall rainfall runoff model. Simulation results (after taking into consideration water use projections) show a water deficit from June to September in both the Komati and Ngwavuma catchments and a water deficit from May to September in the Mbuluzi catchment. Efficient water utilization in the agricultural sector (i.e., using drip irrigation) gives a water savings of 33.6×106 m3per year (1.065m3/s), 47.6×106 m3per year (1.509m3/s) and 16.8×106 m3 per year (0.533m3/s) in the Komati, Mbuluzi and Ngwavuma catchments, respectively. The saved water could be used for other economic activities and meeting Swaziland’s water release obligations to downstream riparian states of South Africa and Mozambique. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recently, climate change is one of the most current scientific problems. As a result of the change of climatic factors, such regional problems are emphasized by falling of underground water level, decrease of water supply and drying of the upper soil layer. The aim of the study is to detect 20th century variations of the soil moisture content in East-Hungary with statistical analysis of objective time series based on meteorological data. Furthermore, by determining representatively long dry and wet periods, management of agro-ecological problems related to the soil moisture content are supported. Palmer drought severity index time series of five meteorological stations in East-Hungary are analysed in the paper for the growing season between 1901 and 1999. Significant fluctuations of the soil moisture content were detected in the region for the 20th century; moreover, the soil became drier in the recent decades. With the help of the “break-point analysis” decade-long dry and wet periods were defined for the aim of climatic research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The enhanced greenhouse gas effect is expected to cause high temperature increase globally (1–3.5°C) and this will lead to an increase in precipitation in some regions while other regions will experience reduced precipitation (±20%). The impact of expected climate change will affect almost all the sectors of the human endeavor. However, the major purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources for Swaziland. The impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources has been evaluated using General Circulation Model results (rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, air temperature etc.) as inputs to a rainfall runoff model. The evaluation of the effect of climate change on hydrology and water resources in Swaziland has been carried out in three catchments namely: Mbuluzi, Komati and Ngwavuma.The missing rainfall data in the original raw data files was estimated using regression analysis from the long-term daily averages rearranged in columns. Pairs of stations were analyzed to establish the ones that correlate the best in terms of the r2. Based on the relationship established in each pair, the linear formulae were applied on the larger original data files to estimate and fill the missing data gaps. The gaps in stream flow series were filled in using rainfall-runoff modeling technique.MAGICC-model has been used to simulate the climate parameters for Swaziland given the baseline conditions. Eleven GCMs were used and three of them were found to simulate very well the observed precipitation for Swaziland. These GCMs are: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the United Kingdom Transient Resalient (UKTR), and the Canadian Climate Change Equilibrium (CCC-EQ). The three GCMs were used to project the temperature and precipitation changes for Swaziland for year 2075. This information was used to generate the temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration values for the three catchments for year 2075. This information was used as input data to a calibrated WatBall rainfall runoff model. Simulation results show that there will be an annual runoff change of ±5% in the Komati catchment and ±2% in the Mbuluzi catchment given climate change conditions. Simulation results show a negative annual runoff change ranging from 4% to 23% in the Ngwavuma catchment under climate change scenarios. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

It has been identified that, long-term climatic changes (Pleistocene ice ages) have been caused by periodic changes in the distribution of incoming solar radiation due to the variations in the earth’s orbital geometry, that is the tilt, precision of equinoxes and eccentricity which take place with periodicity ranging from 41 to 9508 thousand years. However, it has been considered that the major potential mechanism of climate change over the next few hundred years will be anthropogenic green house gas warming up. A number of gases that occur naturally in the atmosphere in small quantities are known as ”greenhouse gases. Water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide trap solar energy in much the same way as do the glass panes of a greenhouse or a closed automobile. This natural greenhouse gases effect has kept the earth’s atmosphere some 30°C hotter, than it would otherwise be, making it possible for humans to exist on earth. Human activities, however, are now raising the concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere and thus increasing their ability to trap energy. The enhanced greenhouse gas effect is expected to cause high temperature increase globally (1–3.5°C) and this will lead to an increase in precipitation in some regions while other regions will experience reduced precipitation (±20%). The impact of expected climate change will affect almost all the sectors of the human endeavor. However, the major purpose of this project is to evaluate the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources and establish the appropriate adaptation strategies for Swaziland. The impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources will be evaluated using General Circulation Model results (rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, etc.) as inputs to a rainfall runoff model. Water use in all the sectors of the human endeavor will be determined in order to establish the water availability given different climate change scenarios. Three catchments have been selected for this exercise. This paper therefore, presents the background information, objectives and significance of the study, literature review, methodology, data collection and processing. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising.Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an “IS92a world” based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude.The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding in 2100 is 16–388 million for the mid (55-cm) global-mean sea-level rise scenarios, and up to 510 million people/year for the high (96-cm) scenario. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be a significant problem if it is ignored, and hence it needs to be considered within the policy process considering climate change in terms of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (improved coastal management and planning) needs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Published estimates of the trend in hmF2 using data from ionosondes over the last 30–40 years range from +0.8 to −0.6 km yr−1 and are subject to the influence of several factors. These are considered here based upon an analysis of two southern hemisphere geomagnetically mid-latitude stations, Argentine Islands and Port Stanley. The influence of the equation used to calculate hmF2 at these stations can result in variations of ±0.2 km yr−1; choice of solar proxy has a small influence on the end result, where using E10.7 instead of F10.7 produces changes of −0.04 km yr−1; neglecting any trends in geomagnetic activity can produce variations of +0.03 to +0.2 km yr−1 at the two mid-latitude stations considered in this paper; for datasets of 30–40 years length ringing due to long memory processes can produce ±0.2 km yr−1 variability; the phase of the 11-year solar cycle, and its harmonics, captured by the datasets can cause variability of ±0.5 km yr−1; and the neglect of local time variations in thermospheric wind conditions could result in +0.2 km yr−1 for analysis which only considers local midday data. The Argentine Islands and Port Stanley datasets show ringing terms that are still converging towards trend results of −0.25 to −0.30 km yr−1, which are in close agreement with the satellite drag trend estimates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Evapotranspiration is an important component and key link of river basin water cycles and plant hydrological processes, and is a core issue in global climate change research. It is not only an important way to understand the energy and water consumption of permafrost regions, but also is an important channel to master the water cycle and energy balance in cold regions. In this paper, multiple linear regression analysis method and weighted comprehensive analysis of major factors method were used to investigate the variation characteristics and impact factors of evapotranspiration in the Genhe River Basin. The results showed the following: (1) The monthly average evapotranspiration in the Genhe River Basin during the freezing-thawing periods in 1980–2017 was 28.29 mm. Compared with the freezing-thawing periods, the total evapotranspiration in the growing seasons was much higher than that in the freezing-thawing periods, with monthly average evapotranspiration of 67.71 mm; (2) The main factors affecting evapotranspiration in the Genhe River Basin were precipitation and temperature. During the freezing-thawing periods, the variation in evapotranspiration in May was mainly determined by temperature. In the growing season, precipitation was the main factors affecting evapotranspiration in June. This will lay a foundation for clarifying the relationship between permafrost–climate change–hydrologic cycle in the permafrost active layer during the land surface process, so as to provide some basic data and important scientific basis for the comprehensive study of the hydrologic process and its impact on climate, ecology, water resources and environment in the permafrost area. • Evapotranspiration variability in permafrost zone have been analyzed in growing season and freezing and thawing period. • The influencing factors of evapotranspiration in a long term have been explored. • This study enriches the data of eco-hydrology research in data-deficient areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming and subsequent climate extremes have a wide impact on ecosystems and economic society. Scientifically quantitative assessment on climate change risks is an urgent issue attracted the attention of academics and decision-makers. In this paper, the theory of climate change risks was sorted out based on the three component elements of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. Moreover, the idiomatic assessment methods and their applicability were systematically summarized. Comprehensive analysis found that the impacts of climate change generally showed a negative trend that was more harm than benefit, and further warming would aggravate the risk over China which was manifested to be more prominent in some sensitive sectors and key regions to climate change. Accessible management of the climate change risk should be engaged in effectively improving the methods of comprehensive identification, strengthening the mechanism and quantitative assessment, recognizing the temporal and spatial variation of components related to climate change risk, and reducing the uncertainty of climate change projection. • Theoretical framework of climate change risk was formed based on hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. • Assessment methods of climate change risk and their applicability were systematically summarized. • Climate change risk levels were analyzed in sensitive sectors and key regions over China. • In China, impacts of climate change were more harm than benefit while more warming was very likely to aggravate the risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events caused by global climate change, the risks to grain production have become more and more prominent. This paper uses the economic and climate data from 1981 to 2016 in China's main grain-producing areas as its source data. The economic-climate model is combined with the grey model GM(1,1) and the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) the second generation Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM2-MR) to further explore the impacts of climate change on China's grain production, and to estimated regional differences in China's grain production under different scenarios. The thresholds of grain production risk from climate change is mainly the value of the risks to the per capita grain production and to the grain yield per hectare under the SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. Starting with historical data, we assess the safety and risk thresholds of China's grain production. The results show that the grain production in the northern region of China will gradually increase with the increase of emission intensity in different scenarios of climate change: SSP1-RCP26, SSP2-RCP45 and SSP5-RCP85, while that in the southern region is just the opposite in 2016–2050. The risks to grain production are mainly concentrated in southern region of China under the different emission scenarios, and the risks of grain production tends to decrease gradually over time. The northward shift of the grain production center further changes China's grain production and sales pattern from "sending grain from the South to the North" in to "sending grain from the North to the South". In order to understand the further climate situation from the perspective of economic, this study provides scientific support for the study of the main impacts of climate change on China's main grain-production areas. • Use the economic-climate model to separate socio-economic and climatic factors. • Use globe model (BCC-CSM2-MR) of CMIP6 to construct a comprehensive climatic factor. • Risks combine two aspects: per capita grain yield and grain yield per hectare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas emissions have caused global temperatures to rise gradually. The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global mean surface temperature increase to less than 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. China's land area accounts for ∼7% of the global land (65Ñ59S) area, and the arid area of China accounts for 12.41% of the total global arid area. Therefore, the degree of aridification/humidification in China is of great significance to climate change in China and the world. This paper evaluates the regional changes of drylands and humid lands in China based on the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increase targets for global mean surface warming(GMSW). We find a suitable warming target for China's climate from the perspective of aridification. The results show the following: 1) If the global mean surface temperature rises by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, the mean surface temperature in China will increase by 2.0 °C and 2.8 °C, respectively. 2) Under the two GMSW targets, the degree of drought in some extremely arid areas in China was projected to decrease, which means that these areas may gradually be suitable for human habitation. 3) Regardless of which global surface temperature target is maintained, the humid lands in China will bear greater risks from warming than the drylands. Under these circumstances, the 1.5 °Ctargetwill lead to better outcomes for China than the 2.0 °C target. • The degree of drought in some extremely arid areas in China has decreased under global warming targets. • Humid lands in China will bear greater warming risks than the dry lands. • Global warming limited within 1.5 °C target for will lead to better outcomes for China than the 2.0 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]