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Prophylactic interventions such as vaccine allocation are some of the most effective public health policy planning tools. The supply of vaccines, however, is limited and an important challenge is to optimally allocate the vaccines to minimize epidemic impact. This resource allocation question (which we refer to as VID) has multiple dimensions: when, where, to whom, etc. Most of the existing literature in this topic deals with the latter (to whom), proposing policies that prioritize individuals by age and disease risk. However, since seasonal influenza spread has a typical spatial trend, and due to the temporal constraints enforced by the availability schedule, the when and where problems become equally, if not more, relevant. In this paper, we study the VID problem in the context of seasonal influenza spread in the United States. We develop a national scale metapopulation model for influenza that integrates both short and long distance human mobility, along with realistic data on vaccine uptake. We also design GA, a greedy algorithm for allocating the vaccine supply at the state level under temporal constraints and show that such a strategy improves over the current baseline of pro-rata allocation, and the improvement is more pronounced for higher vaccine efficacy and moderate flu season intensity. Further, the resulting strategy resembles a ring vaccination applied spatiallyacross the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To eliminate and eradicate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), maximizing the effectiveness of active case finding is of key importance. The progression of the epidemic is largely influenced by the planning of these operations. This paper introduces and analyzes five models for predicting HAT prevalence in a given village based on past observed prevalence levels and past screening activities in that village. Based on the quality of prevalence level predictions in 143 villages in Kwamouth (DRC), and based on the theoretical foundation underlying the models, we consider variants of the Logistic Model—a model inspired by the SIS epidemic model—to be most suitable for predicting HAT prevalence levels. Furthermore, we demonstrate the applicability of this model to predict the effects of planning policies for screening operations. Our analysis yields an analytical expression for the screening frequency required to reach eradication (zero prevalence) and a simple approach for determining the frequency required to reach elimination within a given time frame (one case per 10000). Furthermore, the model predictions suggest that annual screening is only expected to lead to eradication if at least half of the cases are detected during the screening rounds. This paper extends knowledge on control strategies for HAT and serves as a basis for further modeling and optimization studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, increasing associations between microRNAs (miRNAs) and human diseases have been identified. Based on accumulating biological data, many computational models for potential miRNA-disease associations inference have been developed, which saves time and expenditure on experimental studies, making great contributions to researching molecular mechanism of human diseases and developing new drugs for disease treatment. In this paper, we proposed a novel computational method named Ensemble of Decision Tree based MiRNA-Disease Association prediction (EDTMDA), which innovatively built a computational framework integrating ensemble learning and dimensionality reduction. For each miRNA-disease pair, the feature vector was extracted by calculating the statistical measures, graph theoretical measures, and matrix factorization results for the miRNA and disease, respectively. Then multiple base learnings were built to yield many decision trees (DTs) based on random selection of negative samples and miRNA/disease features. Particularly, Principal Components Analysis was applied to each base learning to reduce feature dimensionality and hence remove the noise or redundancy. Average strategy was adopted for these DTs to get final association scores between miRNAs and diseases. In model performance evaluation, EDTMDA showed AUC of 0.9309 in global leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) and AUC of 0.8524 in local LOOCV. Additionally, AUC of 0.9192+/-0.0009 in 5-fold cross validation proved the model’s reliability and stability. Furthermore, three types of case studies for four human diseases were implemented. As a result, 94% (Esophageal Neoplasms), 86% (Kidney Neoplasms), 96% (Breast Neoplasms) and 88% (Carcinoma Hepatocellular) of top 50 predicted miRNAs were confirmed by experimental evidences in literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging evidence has shown microRNAs (miRNAs) play an important role in human disease research. Identifying potential association among them is significant for the development of pathology, diagnose and therapy. However, only a tiny portion of all miRNA-disease pairs in the current datasets are experimentally validated. This prompts the development of high-precision computational methods to predict real interaction pairs. In this paper, we propose a new model of Logistic Model Tree for predicting miRNA-Disease Association (LMTRDA) by fusing multi-source information including miRNA sequences, miRNA functional similarity, disease semantic similarity, and known miRNA-disease associations. In particular, we introduce miRNA sequence information and extract its features using natural language processing technique for the first time in the miRNA-disease prediction model. In the cross-validation experiment, LMTRDA obtained 90.51% prediction accuracy with 92.55% sensitivity at the AUC of 90.54% on the HMDD V3.0 dataset. To further evaluate the performance of LMTRDA, we compared it with different classifier and feature descriptor models. In addition, we also validate the predictive ability of LMTRDA in human diseases including Breast Neoplasms, Breast Neoplasms and Lymphoma. As a result, 28, 27 and 26 out of the top 30 miRNAs associated with these diseases were verified by experiments in different kinds of case studies. These experimental results demonstrate that LMTRDA is a reliable model for predicting the association among miRNAs and diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a data analysis framework to uncover relationships between health conditions, age and sex for a large population of patients. We study a massive heterogeneous sample of 1.7 million patients in Brazil, containing 47 million of health records with detailed medical conditions for visits to medical facilities for a period of 17 months. The findings suggest that medical conditions can be grouped into clusters that share very distinctive densities in the ages of the patients. For each cluster, we further present the ICD-10 chapters within it. Finally, we relate the findings to comorbidity networks, uncovering the relation of the discovered clusters of age densities to comorbidity networks literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the development of new classes of antibiotics slows, bacterial resistance to existing antibiotics is becoming an increasing problem. A potential solution is to develop treatment strategies with an alternative mode of action. We consider one such strategy: anti-adhesion therapy. Whereas antibiotics act directly upon bacteria, either killing them or inhibiting their growth, anti-adhesion therapy impedes the binding of bacteria to host cells. This prevents bacteria from deploying their arsenal of virulence mechanisms, while simultaneously rendering them more susceptible to natural and artificial clearance. In this paper, we consider a particular form of anti-adhesion therapy, involving biomimetic multivalent adhesion molecule 7 coupled polystyrene microbeads, which competitively inhibit the binding of bacteria to host cells. We develop a mathematical model, formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations, to describe inhibitor treatment of a Pseudomonas aeruginosa burn wound infection in the rat. Benchmarking our model against in vivo data from an ongoing experimental programme, we use the model to explain bacteria population dynamics and to predict the efficacy of a range of treatment strategies, with the aim of improving treatment outcome. The model consists of two physical compartments: the host cells and the exudate. It is found that, when effective in reducing the bacterial burden, inhibitor treatment operates both by preventing bacteria from binding to the host cells and by reducing the flux of daughter cells from the host cells into the exudate. Our model predicts that inhibitor treatment cannot eliminate the bacterial burden when used in isolation; however, when combined with regular or continuous debridement of the exudate, elimination is theoretically possible. Lastly, we present ways to improve therapeutic efficacy, as predicted by our mathematical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level. In this paper we propose a new statistical framework for mechanistically modelling individual-to-individual disease transmission in a landscape with heterogeneous population density. Our methodology is first tested using simulated datasets, validating our inferential machinery. The methodology is subsequently applied to data that describes a regional Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015). Our results show that the methods are able to obtain estimates of key epidemiological parameters that are broadly consistent with the literature, while revealing a significantly shorter distance of transmission. More importantly, in contrast to existing approaches, we are able to perform a more general model prediction that takes into account the susceptible population. Finally, our results show that, given reasonable scenarios, the framework can be an effective surrogate for susceptible-explicit individual models which are often computationally challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ancestral state reconstruction in Bayesian phylogeography of virus pandemics have been improved by utilizing a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection (BSSVS) framework. Recently, this framework has been extended to model the transition rate matrix between discrete states as a generalized linear model (GLM) of genetic, geographic, demographic, and environmental predictors of interest to the virus and incorporating BSSVS to estimate the posterior inclusion probabilities of each predictor. Although the latter appears to enhance the biological validity of ancestral state reconstruction, there has yet to be a comparison of phylogenies created by the two methods. In this paper, we compare these two methods, while also using a primitive method without BSSVS, and highlight the differences in phylogenies created by each. We test six coalescent priors and six random sequence samples of H3N2 influenza during the 2014–15 flu season in the U.S. We show that the GLMs yield significantly greater root state posterior probabilities than the two alternative methods under five of the six priors, and significantly greater Kullback-Leibler divergence values than the two alternative methods under all priors. Furthermore, the GLMs strongly implicate temperature and precipitation as driving forces of this flu season and nearly unanimously identified a single root state, which exhibits the most tropical climate during a typical flu season in the U.S. The GLM, however, appears to be highly susceptible to sampling bias compared with the other methods, which casts doubt on whether its reconstructions should be favored over those created by alternate methods. We report that a BSSVS approach with a Poisson prior demonstrates less bias toward sample size under certain conditions than the GLMs or primitive models, and believe that the connection between reconstruction method and sampling bias warrants further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degradation of cytosol-invading pathogens by autophagy, a process known as xenophagy, is an important mechanism of the innate immune system. Inside the host, Salmonella Typhimurium invades epithelial cells and resides within a specialized intracellular compartment, the Salmonella-containing vacuole. A fraction of these bacteria does not persist inside the vacuole and enters the host cytosol. Salmonella Typhimurium that invades the host cytosol becomes a target of the autophagy machinery for degradation. The xenophagy pathway has recently been discovered, and the exact molecular processes are not entirely characterized. Complete kinetic data for each molecular process is not available, so far. We developed a mathematical model of the xenophagy pathway to investigate this key defense mechanism. In this paper, we present a Petri net model of Salmonella xenophagy in epithelial cells. The model is based on functional information derived from literature data. It comprises the molecular mechanism of galectin-8-dependent and ubiquitin-dependent autophagy, including regulatory processes, like nutrient-dependent regulation of autophagy and TBK1-dependent activation of the autophagy receptor, OPTN. To model the activation of TBK1, we proposed a new mechanism of TBK1 activation, suggesting a spatial and temporal regulation of this process. Using standard Petri net analysis techniques, we found basic functional modules, which describe different pathways of the autophagic capture of Salmonella and reflect the basic dynamics of the system. To verify the model, we performed in silico knockout experiments. We introduced a new concept of knockout analysis to systematically compute and visualize the results, using an in silico knockout matrix. The results of the in silico knockout analyses were consistent with published experimental results and provide a basis for future investigations of the Salmonella xenophagy pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During early human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection multiple CD8+ T cell responses are elicited almost simultaneously. These responses exert strong selective pressures on different parts of HIV’s genome, and select for mutations that escape recognition and are thus beneficial to the virus. Some studies reveal that the later these escape mutations emerge, the more slowly they go to fixation. This pattern of escape rate decrease(ERD) can arise by distinct mechanisms. In particular, in large populations with high beneficial mutation rates interference among different escape strains –an effect that can emerge in evolution with asexual reproduction and results in delayed fixation times of beneficial mutations compared to sexual reproduction– could significantly impact the escape rates of mutations. In this paper, we investigated how interference between these concurrent escape mutations affects their escape rates in systems with multiple epitopes, and whether it could be a source of the ERD pattern. To address these issues, we developed a multilocus Wright-Fisher model of HIV dynamics with selection, mutation and recombination, serving as a null-model for interference. We also derived an interference-free null model assuming initial neutral evolution before immune response elicitation. We found that interference between several equally selectively advantageous mutations can generate the observed ERD pattern. We also found that the number of loci, as well as recombination rates substantially affect ERD. These effects can be explained by the underexponential decline of escape rates over time. Lastly, we found that the observed ERD pattern in HIV infected individuals is consistent with both independent, interference-free mutations as well as interference effects. Our results confirm that interference effects should be considered when analyzing HIV escape mutations. The challenge in estimating escape rates and mutation-associated selective coefficients posed by interference effects cannot simply be overcome by improved sampling frequencies or sizes. This problem is a consequence of the fundamental shortcomings of current estimation techniques under interference regimes. Hence, accounting for the stochastic nature of competition between mutations demands novel estimation methodologies based on the analysis of HIV strains, rather than mutation frequencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of network epidemiology's central assumptions is that the contact structure over which infectious diseases propagate can be represented as a static network. However, contacts are highly dynamic, changing at many time scales. In this paper, we investigate conceptually simple methods to construct static graphs for network epidemiology from temporal contact data. We evaluate these methods on empirical and synthetic model data. For almost all our cases, the network representation that captures most relevant information is a so-called exponential-threshold network. In these, each contact contributes with a weight decreasing exponentially with time, and there is an edge between a pair of vertices if the weight between them exceeds a threshold. Networks of aggregated contacts over an optimally chosen time window perform almost as good as the exponential-threshold networks. On the other hand, networks of accumulated contacts over the entire sampling time, and networks of concurrent partnerships, perform worse. We discuss these observations in the context of the temporal and topological structure of the data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]