5 results
Search Results
2. Testing the event witnessing status of micro-bloggers from evidence in their micro-blogs.
- Author
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Truelove, Marie, Vasardani, Maria, and Winter, Stephan
- Subjects
- *
MICROBLOGS , *SOCIAL media , *COMPUTER simulation , *APPLIED mathematics , *SOCIAL networks - Abstract
This paper demonstrates a framework of processes for identifying potential witnesses of events from evidence they post to social media. The research defines original evidence models for micro-blog content sources, the relative uncertainty of different evidence types, and models for testing evidence by combination. Methods to filter and extract evidence using automated and semi-automated means are demonstrated using a Twitter case study event. Further, an implementation to test extracted evidence using Dempster Shafer Theory of Evidence are presented. The results indicate that the inclusion of evidence from micro-blog text and linked image content can increase the number of micro-bloggers identified at events, in comparison to the number of micro-bloggers identified from geotags alone. Additionally, the number of micro-bloggers that can be tested for evidence corroboration or conflict, is increased by incorporating evidence identified in their posting history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. A Graph is Worth a Thousand Words: How Overconfidence and Graphical Disclosure of Numerical Information Influence Financial Analysts Accuracy on Decision Making.
- Author
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Cardoso, Ricardo Lopes, Leite, Rodrigo Oliveira, and de Aquino, André Carlos Busanelli
- Subjects
- *
CORPORATE finance , *ECONOMIC decision making , *GRAPH theory , *INFORMATION theory in economics , *SAMPLE size (Statistics) - Abstract
Previous researches support that graphs are relevant decision aids to tasks related to the interpretation of numerical information. Moreover, literature shows that different types of graphical information can help or harm the accuracy on decision making of accountants and financial analysts. We conducted a 4×2 mixed-design experiment to examine the effects of numerical information disclosure on financial analysts’ accuracy, and investigated the role of overconfidence in decision making. Results show that compared to text, column graph enhanced accuracy on decision making, followed by line graphs. No difference was found between table and textual disclosure. Overconfidence harmed accuracy, and both genders behaved overconfidently. Additionally, the type of disclosure (text, table, line graph and column graph) did not affect the overconfidence of individuals, providing evidence that overconfidence is a personal trait. This study makes three contributions. First, it provides evidence from a larger sample size (295) of financial analysts instead of a smaller sample size of students that graphs are relevant decision aids to tasks related to the interpretation of numerical information. Second, it uses the text as a baseline comparison to test how different ways of information disclosure (line and column graphs, and tables) can enhance understandability of information. Third, it brings an internal factor to this process: overconfidence, a personal trait that harms the decision-making process of individuals. At the end of this paper several research paths are highlighted to further study the effect of internal factors (personal traits) on financial analysts’ accuracy on decision making regarding numerical information presented in a graphical form. In addition, we offer suggestions concerning some practical implications for professional accountants, auditors, financial analysts and standard setters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Analysing How People Orient to and Spread Rumours in Social Media by Looking at Conversational Threads.
- Author
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Zubiaga, Arkaitz, Liakata, Maria, Procter, Rob, Wong Sak Hoi, Geraldine, and Tolmie, Peter
- Subjects
- *
RUMOR , *SOCIAL media , *INFORMATION processing , *JOURNALISTS , *MACHINE learning , *EVIDENCE-based psychology , *PSYCHOLOGY - Abstract
As breaking news unfolds people increasingly rely on social media to stay abreast of the latest updates. The use of social media in such situations comes with the caveat that new information being released piecemeal may encourage rumours, many of which remain unverified long after their point of release. Little is known, however, about the dynamics of the life cycle of a social media rumour. In this paper we present a methodology that has enabled us to collect, identify and annotate a dataset of 330 rumour threads (4,842 tweets) associated with 9 newsworthy events. We analyse this dataset to understand how users spread, support, or deny rumours that are later proven true or false, by distinguishing two levels of status in a rumour life cycle i.e., before and after its veracity status is resolved. The identification of rumours associated with each event, as well as the tweet that resolved each rumour as true or false, was performed by journalist members of the research team who tracked the events in real time. Our study shows that rumours that are ultimately proven true tend to be resolved faster than those that turn out to be false. Whilst one can readily see users denying rumours once they have been debunked, users appear to be less capable of distinguishing true from false rumours when their veracity remains in question. In fact, we show that the prevalent tendency for users is to support every unverified rumour. We also analyse the role of different types of users, finding that highly reputable users such as news organisations endeavour to post well-grounded statements, which appear to be certain and accompanied by evidence. Nevertheless, these often prove to be unverified pieces of information that give rise to false rumours. Our study reinforces the need for developing robust machine learning techniques that can provide assistance in real time for assessing the veracity of rumours. The findings of our study provide useful insights for achieving this aim. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Being on the Field When the Game Is Still Under Way. The Financial Press and Stock Markets in Times of Crisis.
- Author
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Casarin, Roberto and Squazzoni, Flaminio
- Subjects
- *
STOCK exchanges , *GLOBAL Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , *ANTHROPOLOGY , *ECONOMIC models , *MACROECONOMICS , *STATISTICS - Abstract
This paper looks at the relationship between negative news and stock markets in times of global crisis, such as the 2008/2009 period. We analysed one year of front page banner headlines of three financial newspapers, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and Il Sole24ore to examine the influence of bad news both on stock market volatility and dynamic correlation. Our results show that the press and markets influenced each other in generating market volatility and in particular, that the Wall Street Journal had a crucial effect both on the volatility and correlation between the US and foreign markets. We also found significant differences between newspapers in their interpretation of the crisis, with the Financial Times being significantly pessimistic even in phases of low market volatility. Our results confirm the reflexive nature of stock markets. When the situation is uncertain and unpredictable, market behaviour may even reflect qualitative, big picture, and subjective information such as streamers in a newspaper, whose economic and informative value is questionable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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