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The action required to stem the environmental and social implications of climate change depends crucially on how humankind shapes technology, economy, lifestyle and policy. With transport CO2 emissions accounting for about a quarter of the total, we examine the contribution of CO2 output by scientific travel. Thankfully for the reputation of the scientific community, CO2 emissions associated with the trips required to present a paper at a scientific conference account for just 0.003% of the yearly total. However, with CO2 emissions for a single conference trip amounting to 7% of an average individual’s total CO2 emissions, scientists should lead by example by demonstrating leadership in addressing the issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individuals' sensitivity to climate hazards is a central component of their vulnerability to climate change. In this paper, we introduce and outline the utility of a new intraindividual variability construct, affective sensitivity to air pollution (ASAP)–defined as the extent to which an individual's affective states fluctuate in accordance with daily changes in air quality. As such, ASAP pushes beyond examination of differences in individuals' exposures to air pollution to examination of differences in individuals' sensitivities to air pollution. Building on known associations between air pollution exposure and adverse mental health outcomes, we empirically illustrate how application of Bayesian multilevel models to intensive repeated measures data obtained in an experience sampling study (N = 150) over one year can be used to examine whether and how individuals' daily affective states fluctuate with the daily concentrations of outdoor air pollution in their county. Results indicate construct viability, as we found substantial interindividual differences in ASAP for both affect arousal and affect valence. This suggests that repeated measures of individuals' day-to-day affect provides a new way of measuring their sensitivity to climate change. In addition to contributing to discourse around climate vulnerability, the intraindividual variability construct and methodology proposed here can help better integrate affect and mental health in climate adaptation policies, plans, and programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed photovoltaic (DPV) is a promising solution to climate change. However, the widespread adoption of DPV faces challenges, such as high upfront costs, regulatory barriers, and market uncertainty. Addressing these barriers requires coordinating the interests of stakeholders in the promotion of DPV. Therefore, this paper constructs a three-party evolutionary game model in a social network with the government, investment companies and residents as the main subjects and examines the influence of different subjects' behavioral strategies on the promotion of DPV under the social learning mechanism. The results show that: (1) In the game equilibrium, both the government and residents hold a positive attitude towards the promotion of DPV; (2) Companies will obtain most of the subsidies through market power and information differences, resulting in the increase of government subsidies that do not always benefit residents; (3) The increase of energy consumption and pollution prevention costs can promote companies' investment in DPV; (4) The increase of environmental protection taxes to a certain extent helps companies to take responsibility for promoting DPV, reducing the pressure on the government to promote it and increasing residents' income. This study provides insights into the sustainable development of DPV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global food security basically depends on potential yields of staple grain crops worldwide, especially under climate change. However, most scholars use various models of production function in which climatic factors are often considered to estimate crop yield mostly at local or regional level. Therefore, in this paper: Potential yields of rice, wheat, maize and soybean worldwide by 2030 are projected creatively using Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average and Trend Regressed (ARIMA-TR) model in which actual yields in recent two years are used for testing the reliability of projection and Gray System (GS) model for validating the test; Especially individual impacts of climate change on the productions of rice, wheat, maize and soybean worldwide since 1961 are analyzed by using unary regression model in which global mean temperature and land precipitation are independent variable while the yield of crop being dependent one, respectively. Results show that: by 2030, the ratio between average and top yields of world rice is projected to be 50.6% increasing, while those of world wheat, world maize and world soybean are projected to be 38.0% increasing, 14.7% decreasing and 72.5% increasing, respectively. Since 1961 global warming has exerted a negative impact on average yield of world rice less than on its top, a positive effect on average yield of world wheat while a negative impact on its top, a positive effect on average yield of world maize less than on its top, and a positive influence on average yield of world soybean while a negative one on its top, which might be slightly mitigated by 'Carbon Peak' target. The fluctuation of global rainfall contributes to the productions of these crops much less than global warming during same period. Our findings indicate that: to improve global production of four staple grain crops by 2030, the priorities of input should be given to either rice or wheat in both high and low yield countries, whereas to maize in high yield countries and to soybean in low yield countries. These insights highlight some difference from previous studies, and provide academia with innovative comprehension and policy-decision makers with supportive information on sustainable production of these four staple grain crops for global food security under climate change in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring the complex relationship between population change and surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect has important practical significance for the ecological transformation development of shrinking cities in the context of the prevalence of urban shrinkage and the global climate change. This paper compares the population change and SUHI effect between population shrinking region (Northeast Region, NR) and population growing region (Yangtze River Delta, YRD) in China, and explores their differences in driving mechanisms, using GIS spatial analysis and Geodetector model. Our results indicated that there are significant differences in population changes and SUHI intensity between these two regions. About 72.22% of the cities in the NR were shrinking, while their SUHI intensities increased by an average of 1.69°C. On the contrary, the urban population in the YRD shows a linear growth trend, while their SUHI intensities decreased by 0.11°C on average. The results of bivariate Moran's I index also indicated that the spatial correlation between the urban population changes and the SUHI intensity changes are not significant in the above regions. Furthermore, there are significant differences in the primary drivers of SUHI variations between these two regions. In the NR, underlying surface changes, including the changes of green coverage and built-up areas, are the most important driving factors. However, atmospheric environment changes, such as carbon dioxide emission and sulfur dioxide emission, are the key drivers in the YRD. Northam's theory of three-stage urbanization and environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis are powerful to explain these differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contrails are line-shaped clouds formed in the exhaust of aircraft engines that significantly contribute to global warming. This paper confidently proposes integrating advanced image segmentation techniques to identify and monitor aircraft contrails to address the challenges associated with climate change. We propose the SegX-Net architecture, a highly efficient and lightweight model that combines the DeepLabV3+, upgraded, and ResNet-101 architectures to achieve superior segmentation accuracy. We evaluated the performance of our model on a comprehensive dataset from Google research and rigorously measured its efficacy with metrics such as IoU, F1 score, Sensitivity and Dice Coefficient. Our results demonstrate that our enhancements have significantly improved the efficacy of the SegX-Net model, with an outstanding IoU score of 98.86% and an impressive F1 score of 99.47%. These results unequivocally demonstrate the potential of image segmentation methods to effectively address and mitigate the impact of air conflict on global warming. Using our proposed SegX-Net architecture, stakeholders in the aviation industry can confidently monitor and mitigate the impact of aircraft shrinkage on the environment, significantly contributing to the global fight against climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of global climate change, rainstorm and flood disasters have become the most serious cataclysm. Under the circumstances of an increasingly severe risk situation, it is necessary to enhance urban disaster resilience. Based on the disaster resilience process of prevention, absorption, and enhancement, and considering the safety factors such as personnel, facility, environment and management, this paper forms a dual dimension of the urban disaster resilience assessment model covering the key elements of urban disaster response and the core capacity of urban disaster recovery. Furthermore, if taking into account the characteristics of rainstorm and flood disasters, the paper screens the key indicators to build up an assessment index system of an urban rainstorm and flood disaster. The practical application was implemented in Beijing to have an assessment of the ability to recover from rainstorm and flood disasters in all districts of Beijing. And then, some pertinent suggestions for enhancing the resilience of Beijing to rainstorm and flood disasters were proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-standing development pattern dominated by international circulation makes China face the risk of "low-end lock-in" and "being decoupling". In addition, the current global climate change and environmental crisis are becoming increasingly severe, coupled with the COVID-19 impact. Chinese enterprises must actively build a green development system for domestic industries in a mutually reinforcing manner in the context of the domestic general circulation, in order to adapt to the new dual circulation environment as soon as possible. This paper analyzes the specific coupling and coordination relationship between the two systems based on the relevant data of China's three major industries from 2008–2014 using Index DEA, entropy value method, gray correlation analysis and coupling coordination model. The results of the study show that: the two systems of dual circulation pattern and industrial green development have a strong correlation and basically present a coupling relationship, but within the industry, there is a problem of the collapse of the tertiary industry. In terms of the type of coupling, the domestic and international circulation in general gradually present the green development leading state, except for the primary industrial segment of the international circulation. On the whole, the coupling quality of the two systems needs to be further improved. Based on this, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: (1) coordinate the internal and external development of the industry; (2) take innovation as the driving force to promote the green transformation of industries; (3) take green sharing as the goal to strengthen the policy orientation of green development; (4) take the opportunity of mutual promotion of dual circulation to stabilize the steady state of green development coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is an ecologically sensitive, cost-effective, and locally adaptive climate adaptation strategy to strengthen the climate resilience of vulnerable communities. While many studies on EbA have been conducted in rural and mountainous regions or within the natural sciences realm, there is a lack of comprehensive research that assesses how urban EbA measures have been incorporated into existing policies and plans in Global South, including in Nepal. Ecosystem-based adaptation is in the early stages of its establishment as a fundamental component to address climate adaptation and sustainable development in urban environments. Accordingly, effective integration strategies, challenges, potential focal areas, and entry points have yet to be extensively studied. To address the literature gap, this paper analyses the types of EbA interventions and the extent of urban EbA integration within Nepal's climate, urban, and sectoral policies and plans. Direct content analysis and a qualitative scoring system were used to evaluate the plan components and assess the level of EbA integration. The findings indicate that the policies and plans recognise the importance of conserving, enhancing, and managing ecosystems for climate change adaptation, and EbA measures are mainly included in action-oriented sections. However, the results also reveal inadequate EbA integration, particularly in the information base, vision and objectives, and implementation aspects. The implementation component notably lacks comprehensive provisions for budget allocation, responsible authorities, definite timelines, and clear roadmaps. The breakdown of EbA integration in the policies and plans suggests that climate and urban plans substantially integrate urban EbA measures, but discrepancies exist with climate and urban policies and sectoral policies and plans. These findings collectively emphasise a pressing need to enhance the recognition and integration of urban EbA measures within policy frameworks with a view towards strengthening climate resilience and mitigating climate-related hazards in urban environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With their rich Late Neolithic to Early Bronze Age archives, the Circumharz region, the Czech Republic/Lower Austria region, and the Northern Alpine Foreland are well-suited for research on potential links between human activities and climate fluctuations of this period with pronounced archaeological changes. In this paper, we reconstruct the rate and density of the available 14C data from 5500 to 3500 calBP (3550–1550 BCE). We ask to what extent population patterns varied over time and space, and whether fluctuations in human populations and their activities varied with local/regional climate changes. To answer these questions, we have compiled an extensive list of published radiocarbon dates and created 14C sum calibrations for each region. We also compare population dynamics with local and regional palaeoclimate records derived from high-resolution speleothems. At the regional scale, the results suggest a causal relationship between regional climate and population trends. Climate and associated environmental changes were thus at least partly responsible for demographic trends. These results also allow us to question the motivation for the construction of so-called "Early Bronze Age princely tombs" in the Circumharz region during a period of population decline. Among other things, it can be argued that the upper echelons of society may have benefited from trade relations. However, this process was accompanied by ecological stress, a cooling of the winter climate, a decline in the total population and an increase in social inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alaska is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. Coincidentally, the state has also experienced dramatic impacts of climate change as it is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the United States. Through mechanisms such as permafrost thaw, water table fluctuation, and melting of sea ice and glaciers, climatic-driven changes to the natural and built-environment influence the seismic response of infrastructure systems. This paper discusses the challenges and needs posed by earthquake hazards and climate change to Alaska's infrastructure and built environment, drawing on the contributions of researchers and decision-makers in interviews and a workshop. It outlines policy, mitigation, and adaptation areas meriting further attention to improve the seismic resilience of Alaska's built environment from the perspectives of engineering and complementary coupled human-environmental systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh has been ranked as one of the world's top countries affected by climate change, particularly in terms of agricultural crop sector. The purpose of this study is to identify spatial and temporal changes and trends in long-term climate at local and national scales, as well as their implications for rice yield. In this study, Modified Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests were used to detect significant trends and the magnitude of changes in temperature and rainfall. The temperature and rainfall data observed and recorded at 35 meteorological stations in Bangladesh over 65-years in the time span between the years 1949 and 2013 have been used to detect these changes and trends of variation. The results show that mean annual Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax have increased significantly by 0.13°C, 0.13°C, and 0.13°C/decade, respectively. The most significant increasing trend in seasonal temperatures for the respective Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax was 0.18°C per decade (post-monsoon), 0.18°C/decade (winter), and 0.23°C/decade (post-monsoon), respectively. Furthermore, the mean annual and pre-monsoon rainfall showed a significant increasing trend at a rate of 4.20 mm and 1.35 mm/year, respectively. This paper also evaluates climate variability impacts on three major rice crops, Aus, Aman, and Boro during 1970–2013. The results suggest that crop yield variability can be explained by climate variability during Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons by 33, 25, and 16%, respectively. Maximum temperature significantly affected the Aus and Aman crop yield, whereas rainfall significantly affected all rice crops' yield. This study sheds light on sustainable agriculture in the context of climate change, which all relevant authorities should investigate in order to examine climate-resilient, high-yield crop cultivation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is an ongoing topic in nearly all areas of society since many years. A discussion of climate change without referring to scientific results is not imaginable. This is especially the case for policies since action on the macro scale is required to avoid costly consequences for society. In this study, we deal with the question of how research on climate change and policy are connected. In 2019, the new Overton database of policy documents was released including links to research papers that are cited by policy documents. The use of results and recommendations from research on climate change might be reflected in citations of scientific papers in policy documents. Although we suspect a lot of uncertainty related to the coverage of policy documents in Overton, there seems to be an impact of international climate policy cycles on policy document publication. We observe local peaks in climate policy documents around major decisions in international climate diplomacy. Our results point out that IGOs and think tanks–with a focus on climate change–have published more climate change policy documents than expected. We found that climate change papers that are cited in climate change policy documents received significantly more citations on average than climate change papers that are not cited in these documents. Both areas of society (science and policy) focus on similar climate change research fields: biology, earth sciences, engineering, and disease sciences. Based on these and other empirical results in this study, we propose a simple model of policy impact considering a chain of different document types: The chain starts with scientific assessment reports (systematic reviews) that lead via science communication documents (policy briefs, policy reports or plain language summaries) and government reports to legislative documents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A main objective of this paper is to provide the first model of how climate change, working through sexual selection, could have led to dramatic increases in hominin brain size, and presumably intelligence, in the Middle Pleistocene. The model is built using core elements from the field of family economics, including assortative mating and specialization and complementarities between mates. The main assumptions are that family public goods (e.g., conversation, shelter, fire) were particularly cognitively intensive to produce and became increasingly important for child survival during glacial phases. Intermediate climates (e.g., not the depths of severe glacial phases) create the largest gains from specialization, encouraging negative assortative mating. In contrast, severe glacial phases encourage positive assortative mating because of the rising importance of family public goods. One testable hypothesis is that absence of severe glacial phases should have led to stasis in brain size. Two other testable hypotheses are that severe glacial phases should have led to speciation events, as well as increases in brain size. The evidence shows that there was a million-year stasis in cranial size prior to the start of the severe glacial phases. This stasis is broken by a speciation event (Homo heidelbergensis), with the oldest fossil evidence dated near the close of the first severe glacial phase. In the next 300 kyr, there are two additional severe glacial phases, accompanied by considerable increases in cranial capacity. The last speciation event is Homo sapiens, with the earliest fossils dated near the end of the last of these two glacial phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainty of climate change's impacts hinders adaptation actions, particularly micro-scale urban design interventions. This paper proposes a sixfold urban design framework to assess and enhance the resilience of urban form to climate change, where urban form refers to the patterns of streets, buildings, and land uses. The framework is then applied to Long Bay in Negril, Jamaica–a coastal area that incorporates the complex interactions between urbanization and a highly vulnerable socio-ecological system to climate change-related hazards, primarily sea-level rise. Empirical evidence from 19 in-depth interviews with planning and design professionals and development actors, in situ observations, and morphological analyses reveal that Long Bay's current adaptation strategies heavily rely on bounce-back resilience measures that predominantly consider the impacts of extreme climatic events rather than slow-onset ones. Such strategies abet current tourism-driven development patterns while overlooking Long Bay's inherent abilities for generative transformation and incremental changes to meet climatic uncertainty. Instead, this study's findings highlight how generative urban form transformation would better equip Long Bay to cope with future uncertainty–climatic or other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human responses to climate change have long been at the heart of discussions of past economic, social, and political change in the Nile Valley of northeastern Africa. Following the arrival of Neolithic groups in the 6th millennium BCE, the Northern Dongola Reach of Upper Nubia witnessed a cultural florescence manifested through elaborate funerary traditions. However, despite the wealth of archaeological data available from funerary contexts, including evidence for domesticated animals and plants as grave goods, the paucity of stratified habitation contexts hinders interpretation of local subsistence trajectories. While it is recognised archaeologically that, against the backdrop of increasing environmental deterioration, the importance of agriculture based on Southwest Asian winter cereals increased throughout the Kerma period (2500–1450 BCE), the contribution of domesticated cereals to earlier Neolithic herding economies remains unclear. This paper presents direct dietary data from a total of 55 Middle Neolithic and Kerma period individuals from Kadruka 21 and Kadruka 1. Microbotanical data obtained from human dental calculus and grave sediments are integrated with human and faunal stable isotopes to explore changes in dietary breadth over time. The combined results demonstrate the consumption of wild plant species, including C4 wetland adapted grasses, by Middle Neolithic individuals at Kadruka 1. Despite existing evidence for domesticated barley in associated graves, the results obtained in this study provide no clear evidence for the routine consumption of domesticated cereals by Middle Neolithic individuals. Rather, direct microparticle evidence for the consumption of Triticeae cereals is only associated with a single Kerma period individual and corresponds with an isotopic shift indicating a greater contribution of C3-derived resources to diet. These results provide evidence for Neolithic dietary flexibility in Upper Nubia through the persistence of foraging activities and support existing evidence linking increased agricultural reliance to the development of the Kerma culture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a need for better understanding of countries' vulnerability and resilience to not only pandemics but also disasters, climate change, and other systemic shocks. A comprehensive characterization of vulnerability can inform efforts to improve infrastructure and guide disaster response in the future. In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework for studying countries' vulnerability and resilience to incident disasters across multiple dimensions of society. To illustrate this methodology, we leverage the rich data landscape surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic to characterize observed resilience for several countries (USA, Brazil, India, Sweden, New Zealand, and Israel) as measured by pandemic impacts across a variety of social, economic, and political domains. We also assess how observed responses and outcomes (i.e., resilience) of the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with pre-pandemic characteristics or vulnerabilities, including (1) prior risk for adverse pandemic outcomes due to population density and age and (2) the systems in place prior to the pandemic that may impact the ability to respond to the crisis, including health infrastructure and economic capacity. Our work demonstrates the importance of viewing vulnerability and resilience in a multi-dimensional way, where a country's resources and outcomes related to vulnerability and resilience can differ dramatically across economic, political, and social domains. This work also highlights key gaps in our current understanding about vulnerability and resilience and a need for data-driven, context-specific assessments of disaster vulnerability in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The humans of modern society are enjoying the luxuries and comforts today but future generations will be facing a more polluted environment and scarcity of natural resources. So the effects of global warming and climatic changes are a major policy concern nowadays around the world. The majority of the literature treats the Carbon Dioxide emissions as an indicator of environmental deterioration but this paper considers the environmental performance index as an indicator of environment. This paper addresses the role of institutional reforms for environmental performance that is hardly discussed in the earlier literature. It is argued that a novel approach of institutional reforms can provide some useful insights for environmental performance in developing countries. There is wide agreement that institutional quality is crucial for economic sustainability but rarely focused to explore the impacts of institutional reforms on environmental performance. The institutional reforms are generally divided into two categories; economic and political reforms. This paper investigated the impact of each category of institutional reforms for environmental performance by using panel data of 122 developing economies for a period of 1996–2020. Difference in differences technique is applied to determine the impact of each category of reforms on the environment. It is found that economic and political reforms significantly contribute to protecting the environment in developing countries, and it will be a good policy option to reform the economic and political institutions to preserve the environment in these countries along with sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health care has significant environmental impact. We performed a scoping review to map what is known about the environmental impact of health care for musculoskeletal conditions. Methods: We included published papers of any design that measured or discussed environmental impact of health care or health support services for any musculoskeletal condition in terms of climate change or global warming (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions it produces). We searched MEDLINE and Embase from inception to 2 May 2022 using keywords for environmental health and musculoskeletal conditions, and performed keyword searches using Google and Google Scholar. Two independent reviewers screened studies. One author independently charted data, verified by a second author. A narrative synthesis was performed. Results: Of 12,302 publications screened and 73 identified from other searches, 122 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, and 49 were included (published 1994 to 2022). Of 24 original research studies, 11 measured environmental impact relating to climate change in orthopaedics (n = 10), and medical aids for the knee (n = 1), one measured energy expenditure of laminar versus turbulent airflow ventilation systems in operating rooms during simulated hip replacements and 12 measured waste associated with orthopaedic surgery but did not relate waste to greenhouse gas emissions or environmental effects. Twenty-one editorials described a need to reduce environmental impact of orthopaedic surgery (n = 9), physiotherapy (n = 9), podiatry (n = 2) or occupational therapy (n = 1). Four narrative reviews discussed sustainability relating to hand surgery (n = 2), orthopaedic surgery (n = 1) and orthopaedic implants (n = 1). Conclusion: Despite an established link between health care and greenhouse gas emissions we found limited empirical data estimating the impact of musculoskeletal health care on the environment. These data are needed to determine whether actions to lower the carbon footprint of musculoskeletal health care should be a priority and to identify those aspects of care that should be prioritised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental footprints are indicators that can be used to estimate the impacts of diet on the environment. Since contemporary dietary practices are related to negative environmental impacts, this paper aims to describe a systematic review protocol to investigate the environmental footprints of food consumption by adults and elderly individuals worldwide. This protocol was developed based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). Search strategies and records of evidence searched in previously defined electronic databases will be defined. Original, population-based articles investigating the environmental footprints of food consumption by adults and the elderly will be included. Two independent reviewers will conduct the study selection and data extraction steps. Critical appraisal of the included studies will be based on the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. For data synthesis, a narrative synthesis and, if possible, also a meta-analysis will be performed. The systematic review produced from this protocol will provide evidence for data synthesis of the environmental impact through environmental footprints of food consumption of the adult and elderly population from different territories and the footprint assessment tools used around the world. Therefore, it is a gap that needs to be filled because knowing these impacts will be important to inform the development of public policies that encourage healthy and sustainable food in the face of climate and epidemiological changes. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021281488. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) is an arbovirus that, while it has been known to exist since the 1930's, recently had a spike in cases. This increased prevalence is particularly concerning due to the severity of the disease with 1 in 3 symptomatic patients dying. The cause of this peak is currently unknown but could be due to changes in climate, the virus itself, or host behavior. In this paper we propose a novel multi-season deterministic model of EEE spread and its stochastic counterpart. Models were parameterized using a dataset from the Florida Department of Health with sixteen years of sentinel chicken seroconversion rates. The different roles of the enzootic and bridge mosquito vectors were explored. As expected, enzootic mosquitoes like Culiseta melanura were more important for EEE persistence, while bridge vectors were implicated in the disease burden in humans. These models were used to explore hypothetical viral mutations and host behavior changes, including increased infectivity, vertical transmission, and host feeding preferences. Results showed that changes in the enzootic vector transmission increased cases among birds more drastically than equivalent changes in the bridge vector. Additionally, a 5% difference in the bridge vector's bird feeding preference can increase cumulative dead-end host infections more than 20-fold. Taken together, this suggests changes in many parts of the transmission cycle can augment cases in birds, but the bridge vectors feeding preference acts as a valve limiting the enzootic circulation from its impact on dead-end hosts, such as humans. Our what-if scenario analysis reveals and measures possible threats regarding EEE and relevant environmental changes and hypothetically suggests how to prevent potential damage to public health and the equine economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a regional dataset of change at 381 settlements for Lycia-Pamphylia in southwest Anatolia (Turkey) from volume 8 of the Tabula Imperii Byzantini–a compilation of historical toponyms and archaeological evidence. This region is rich in archaeological remains and high-quality paleo-climatic and -environmental archives. Our archaeological synthesis enables direct comparison of these datasets to discuss current hypotheses of climate impacts on historical societies. A Roman Climatic Optimum, characterized by warmer and wetter conditions, facilitating Roman expansion in the 1st-2nd centuries CE cannot be supported here, as Early Byzantine settlement did not benefit from enhanced precipitation in the 4th-6th centuries CE as often supposed. However, widespread settlement decline in a period with challenging archaeological chronologies (c. 550–650 CE) was likely caused by a "perfect storm" of environmental, climatic, seismic, pathogenic and socio-economic factors, though a shift to drier conditions from c. 460 CE appears to have preceded other factors by at least a century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fisheries are forecasted to shrink in the tropics due to climate change. In Vietnam, fisheries are a pro-poor economic sector and essential nutrition source; however, welfares of producers and consumers in the climate change context are not well understood. While most studies focus on the gains or losses of total products and revenues, this paper pays additional attention to the changes in surpluses of market players in the long run. A combination of the production function, demand and supply functions, and partial equilibrium analysis is employed to measure the production and welfare impacts based on time series data from 1976 to 2018 and a Vietnam household living standards survey in 2018. The results show that relative to the present, catch yield is likely to reduce 35%-45% by mid-century and 45%-80% by the end of the century. Consumers may lose their surplus of 7-9 billion USD (PPP, 2018) by 2035 and 10-18 billion USD by 2065 due to supply reduction, while producers may gain additional profit of 3.5-4.5 billion USD by 2035 and 5-9 billion USD by 2065 owing to a price increase. The research findings suggest that Vietnam could impose measures to limit capture effort, as set out in the Law of Fisheries 2017, without harming fisher welfare. The expansion of aquaculture could reduce the gap between supply and demand of wild fish to mitigate consumer welfare loss; however, this impact is still ambiguous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The excessive carbon emissions not only intensify the global climate change, but also seriously restrict the sustainable development of social economy. However, improving industrial carbon emissions efficiency is the most directly effective way to reduce emissions. Therefore, accurate measurement and analysis of carbon emissions efficiency and evolution characteristics of China's industrial system is the basis for China to improve carbon emissions efficiency. Based on this, we adopted energy consumption method and input-output method to calculate and analyze the industrial carbon emissions efficiency and evolution characteristics of China from 2002 to 2015. The results show that (1) If carbon emissions from cement production are ignored and only energy-related carbon emissions are considered, the calculation results of carbon emissions efficiency of heavy industry will be overestimated about 30%. (2) Compared with 2002, China's industrial carbon emissions efficiency increased by about twice in 2015. Specifically, the optimization of carbon emissions efficiency in agriculture, construction, light industry and service industry is very obvious, which has increased by 5.65, 5.00, 4.69 and 4.68 times respectively; The optimization of carbon emissions efficiency in power sector, heavy industry, transportation and chemical industry was obvious, which increased by 2.55, 2.01, 1.86 and 1.47 times respectively; The carbon emissions efficiency of the fossil energy sector has decreased by 0.36 times. (3) The carbon emissions efficiency of various industries has significant differences. Among them, agriculture, service industry, light industry and construction industry are generally industries with higher carbon emissions efficiency, while power sector, fossil energy sector, transportation industry, chemical industry and heavy industry are generally industries with lower carbon emissions efficiency, especially power and fossil energy sectors. Based on these, this paper provides policy implications and scientific evidence for accurately improving carbon emissions efficiency from the perspective of carbon emissions efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall fluctuation is directly affected by the Earth's climate change. It can be described using the coefficient of variation (CV). Similarly, the ratio of CVs can be used to compare the rainfall variation between two regions. The ratio of CVs has been widely used in statistical inference in a number of applications. Meanwhile, the confidence interval constructed with this statistic is also of interest. In this paper, confidence intervals for the ratio of two independent CVs of lognormal distributions with excess zeros using the fiducial generalized confidence interval (FGCI), Bayesian methods based on the left-invariant Jeffreys, Jeffreys rule, and uniform priors, and the Wald and Fieller log-likelihood methods are proposed. The results of a simulation study reveal that the highest posterior density (HPD) Bayesian using the Jeffreys rule prior method performed the best in terms of the coverage probability and the average length for almost all cases of small sample size and a large sample size together with a large variance and a small proportion of non-zero values. The performance of the statistic is demonstrated on two rainfall datasets from the central and southern regions in Thailand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa's geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the "biomod2" library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vulnerability to climate change is highly dynamic, varying between and within communities over different timescales. This paper draws upon complex adaptive systems thinking to develop an approach for capturing, understanding, and monitoring climate vulnerability in a case study from northern Canada, focusing on Inuit food systems. In the community of Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, we followed 10 hunters over a 2-year period, asking them to document their harvesting activities and discuss their lived experience of harvesting under changing environmental and societal conditions. GPS monitoring and participatory mapping sessions were used to document 23,996km of trails (n = 409), with conversational bi-weekly semi-structured interviews and secondary instrumental weather data used to contextualise climate change within a nexus of other socioeconomic, cultural, and political stressors that also affect harvesting. Our results demonstrate that climate change has considerable potential to affect harvesting activities, particularly when its impacts manifest as anomalous/extreme events. However, climate change impacts are not necessarily the most salient issues affecting harvesting on a day-to-day basis. Instead, factors relating to economics (particularly financial capital and the wage-based economy), social networks, and institutions are found to have a greater influence, either as standalone factors with cascading effects or when acting synchronously to augment the impacts of environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are increasingly promoting walkability to tackle climate change, improve urban quality of life, and address socioeconomic inequities that auto-oriented development tends to exacerbate, prompting a need for predictive pedestrian flow models. This paper implements a novel network-based pedestrian flow model at a property-level resolution in the City of Melbourne. Data on Melbourne's urban form, land-uses, amenities, and pedestrian walkways as well as weather conditions are used to predict pedestrian flows between different land-use pairs, which are subsequently calibrated against hourly observed pedestrian counts from automated sensors. Calibration allows the model extrapolate pedestrian flows on all streets throughout the city center based on reliable baseline observations, and to forecast how new development projects will change existing pedestrian flows. Longitudinal data availability also allows us to validate how accurate such predictions are by comparing model results to actual pedestrian counts observed in following years. Updating the built-environment data annually, we (1) test the accuracy of different calibration techniques for predicting foot-traffic on the city's streets in subsequent years; (2) assess how changes in the built environment affect changes in foot-traffic; (3) analyze which pedestrian origin-destination flows explain observed foot-traffic during three peak weekday periods; and (4) assess the stability of model predictions over time. We find that annual changes in the built environment have a significant and measurable impact on the spatial distribution of Melbourne's pedestrian flows. We hope this novel framework can be used by planners to implement "pedestrian impact assessments" for newly planned developments, which can complement traditional vehicular "traffic impact assessments". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong public support is a prerequisite for ambitious and thus costly climate change mitigation policy, and strong public concern over climate change is a prerequisite for policy support. Why, then, do most public opinion surveys indicate rather high levels of concern and rather strong policy support, while de facto mitigation efforts in most countries remain far from ambitious? One possibility is that survey measures for public concern fail to fully reveal the true attitudes of citizens due to social desirability bias. In this paper, we implemented list-experiments in representative surveys in Germany and the United States (N = 3620 and 3640 respectively) to assess such potential bias. We find evidence that people systematically misreport, that is, understate their disbelief in human caused climate change. This misreporting is particularly strong amongst politically relevant subgroups. Individuals in the top 20% of the income distribution in the United States and supporters of conservative parties in Germany exhibit significantly higher climate change skepticism according to the list experiment, relative to conventional measures. While this does not definitively mean that climate skepticism is a widespread phenomenon in these countries, it does suggest that future research should reconsider how climate change concern is measured, and what subgroups of the population are more susceptible to misreporting and why. Our findings imply that public support for ambitious climate policy may be weaker than existing survey research suggests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for healthcare severely affect the current consumption, future health and earnings capacity of poor/underprivileged households and hence it is crucial for priority setting. This study assesses the variation in overall as well as disease-specific impoverishment impact of OOP payments between the regions experiencing different climate change risks, defined as high disaster-prone (HDP) areas and low-disaster-prone (LDP) areas, in Bangladesh. Materials and methods: This paper estimated three poverty measures, such as poverty headcount, poverty intensity and normalized poverty gap for all ailments, catastrophic events, diseases types (communicable, non-communicable (NCDs), and accident and injury), illness conditions (acute and chronic) and hospitalization using 3,791 randomly selected rural households (1,203 from HDP and 2,588 from LDP areas) across the regions. Cost of basic need approach was used for estimating poverty line expenditure. Results: About 13 percent households annually fall into poverty due to OOP outlays for healthcare. Despite having significantly (p-value≤0.01) less OOP payments (HDP areas: BDT 5,117; LDP areas: BDT5,811) the impoverishment impact of OOP payments for healthcare in HDP areas (16.5%) has substantially higher than LDP areas (11.3%). Population in HDP areas, especially char (river island; 19.55 percent) and haor (water submerged; 16.80 percent) are more susceptible to any level of OOP payments due to low level of earnings. Catastrophic healthcare expenditure (61.79%) and NCDs (14.29 percent) are exacerbating the poverty level in Bangladesh. Both absolute and relative average poverty gap are more widen in HDP than LDP areas due to catastrophic OOP outlays for healthcare. Conclusion: The impoverishment effect due to OOP payments for healthcare in both HDP and LDP areas are high, especially for NCDs and catastrophic healthcare expenditure. However, the situation is bit worse in HDP areas. Preventing the escalation of NCDs as well as catastrophic expenditure and hence reducing the level of impoverishment thereof call for restricting tobacco use, increasing physical activity, encouraging to intake healthy diets, ensuring food safety, controlling air pollution, and improving mental health. Moreover, government should give more emphasis, especially in the HDP areas, on making community clinics more functional through providing screening equipment and training to the Community Health Care Providers for early detection of NCDs, and ensuring availability of medicine all the time. Note that other than community clinics, there is little option for providing healthcare in HDP areas due to poor functionality of public facilities as well as lack of private facilities in HDP areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change and extreme temperatures pose increasing challenges to individuals and their health with older adults being one of the most vulnerable groups. The aim of this paper is to better understand the roles that tangible assets (e.g., physical or financial) and intangible assets (e.g., human or social) play in the way older adults adapt to extreme temperatures, the types of adaptive responses they implement, limits and constraints, as well opportunities for better adaptation. Rather than focusing exclusively on extremes of heat, or considering each type of asset in isolation, the important and novel contribution of this paper is to take an integrated and multi-seasonal qualitative and quantitative approach, that conjointly investigates all categories of assets in relation to the adaptations that independently-living older adults make to both extreme heat and extreme cold. Methods and findings: The paper examines the contribution of assets to adaptation to extreme temperatures among older adults living independently in their homes. An innovative mixed methods study with an inter-seasonal approach was implemented in Lisbon, Portugal with interviews and surveys during summer for extreme heat and winter for extreme cold. The ability of participants to adapt to extreme temperatures was found to be dependent on asset context and diversity, and the dynamics through which extreme temperatures enhanced or reduced the stock of assets available. As a result, participants engaged in activities of assets replacement, exchange or substitutions. Despite this, many participants recognised many constraints and limits to their ability to adapt and protect their health and well-being ranging from reduced income, high energy costs and lack of social networks. Opportunities for improving older adults’ adaptation were found to exist and strategies, action and investment have been identified by older adults which included life-long education, incentives to improve insulation and local activities. Conclusions: The paper suggests that the implementation of the proposed asset-based approach linking assets and adaptation to extreme temperatures, illustrates the key pathway that individuals, their families and carers, governments, policymakers, researchers and practitioners can follow to ensure effective adaptation and promote health and well-being. Supporting older adults’ adaptation to extreme temperatures is possible and can be complemented with efforts to reduce older adults’ vulnerability and building resilience to extreme temperatures. These findings pose concrete implications for policy and practice, including for example the need for implementation of measures and actions to reduce poverty, reduce energy costs, improve the quality of the housing stock and improve older adults’ social networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Climate change affects livestock production and productivity, which could threaten livestock-based food security in pastoral and agro-pastoral production systems of the tropics and sub-tropics. Boran cattle breed is one of the hardiest Zebu cattle reared by Borana Oromo pastoralists for milk and meat production. However, there is limited comprensive information on production, reproduction and adaption traits of the Boran cattle in Ethiopia. Thus, this paper aims to compile the main production, reproduction and some adaptation traits of Boran cattle based on systematic review and meta-analysis of peer reviewed published and unpublished literature. Methodology: A combination of systematic review and meta-analysis based on PRISMA guideline was employed. Accordingly, out of 646 recorded articles identified through database searching, 64 were found to be eligible for production, reproduction and adaptation characteristics of the Boran cattle, 28 articles were included in qualitative systematic review while 36 articles were used for quantitative meta-analysis. Result: The Boran cattle breed has the ability to survive, produce and reproduce under high ambient temperature, utilize low quality forage resources, and resist water shortage or long watering intervals and tick infestations. The review revealed that the breed employs various adaptation responses (morphological, physiological, biochemical, metabolic, cellular and molecular responses) to cope with harsh environmental conditions including climate change, rangeland degradation, seasonal feed and water shortages and high incidences of tick infestations. The meta-analysis using a random-effects model allowed provision of pooled estimates of heritability and genetic correlations for reproduction and production traits, which could be used to solve genetic prediction equations under a population level in purebred Boran cattle. In addition, heritability and genetic-correlation estimates found in the present study suggest that there is high genetic variability for most traits in Boran cattle, and that genetic progress is possible for all studied traits in this breed. Conclusion: The Boran cattle breed has the ability to survive, produce and reproduce under high ambient temperature, utilize low quality forage resources, and resist water shortage or long watering intervals and tick infestations. However, currently there are several challenges such as recurrent droughts, pasture deterioration and lack of systematic selection and breeding programs that play to undermine the realization of the potential of the breed. Thus, we recommend systematic selection for enhancing the reproductive and production performances without compromising the adaptation traits of the breed coupled with improved management of rangelands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores whether efficacy beliefs can alter the relationship between worry about climate change and personal energy-saving behaviors, controlling for climate change beliefs and socio-demographics. For this purpose, we used data from 23 countries that participated in the European Social Survey Round 8 (N = 44 387). Worry about climate change, personal efficacy, personal outcome expectancy, and collective outcome expectancy were each associated with personal energy-saving behaviors concerning either energy curtailment or energy efficiency. The results further show that outcome expectancies moderate the association between worry about climate change and both types of energy behaviors. Worry was more strongly related to energy curtailment behaviors among those with high levels of personal and collective outcome expectancy. A similar pattern was found for energy efficiency behaviors, which were more strongly predicted by worry about climate change when combined with high levels of collective outcome expectancy. These findings are relevant for climate change communication, especially informational campaigns aiming to lower overall household energy use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how marine taxa will respond to near-future climate changes is one of the main challenges for management of coastal ecosystem services. Ecological studies that investigate relationships between the environment and shell properties of commercially important marine species are commonly restricted to latitudinal gradients or small-scale laboratory experiments. This paper aimed to explore the variations in shell features and growth of the edible bivalve Chamelea gallina from the Holocene sedimentary succession to present-day thanatocoenosis of the Po Plain-Adriatic Sea system (Italy). Comparing the Holocene sub-fossil record to modern thanatocoenoses allowed obtaining an insight of shell variations dynamics on a millennial temporal scale. Five shoreface-related assemblages rich in C. gallina were considered: two from the Middle Holocene, when regional sea surface temperatures were higher than today, representing a possible analogue for the near-future global warming, one from the Late Holocene and two from the present-day. We investigated shell biometry and skeletal properties in relation to the valve length of C. gallina. Juveniles were found to be more porous than adults in all horizons. This suggested that C. gallina promoted an accelerated shell accretion with a higher porosity and lower density at the expense of mechanically fragile shells. A positive correlation between sea surface temperature and both micro-density and bulk density were found, with modern specimens being less dense, likely due to lower aragonite saturation state at lower temperature, which could ultimately increase the energetic costs of shell formation. Since no variation was observed in shell CaCO3 polymorphism (100% aragonite) or in compositional parameters among the analyzed horizons, the observed dynamics in skeletal parameters are likely not driven by a diagenetic recrystallization of the shell mineral phase. This study contributes to understand the response of C. gallina to climate-driven environmental shifts and offers insights for assessing anthropogenic impacts on this economic relevant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seabirds are one of the most at-risk groups, with many species in decline. In Scandinavia, seabirds are at a heightened risk of extinction due to accelerated global warming. Norway is home to significant portion of the European Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations, but Norwegian populations have declined significantly during the last decades. In this paper we use biometric data from modern and archaeological F. arctica specimens to investigate patterns in body size variation over time of this iconic species. We aimed to set out a baseline for our archaeological comparison by firstly investigating whether modern subspecies of F. arctica are reflected in the osteological characters and are enough to distinguish subspecies from the bones alone. We then investigated if archaeological remains of F. arctica differ in size from the modern subspecies. Our results show that the subspecies Fratercula arctica naumanni was distinctly larger than the other subspecies. However, Fratercula arctica arctica and Fratercula arctica grabae were difficult to separate based on size. This generally supports ornithological observations. Post-Medieval F. arctica bones from Måsøy were similar to modern F. a. arctica populations. The mid-Holocene remains from Dollsteinhola overlaps with the modern size ranges of F. a. arctica and F. a. grabae but are generally shorter and more robust. Dollsteinhola is located close to the borders of the modern breeding ranges of both F. a. arctica and F. a. grabae. We consider it therefore likely that given the mid-Holocene climatic oscillations, breeding ranges of the two subspecies shifted north or south accordingly. However, this does not explain the different proportions of the Dollsteinhola specimens. Our data provide the first evidence for shifting distributions in ancient Atlantic Puffins and represent the first osteological analysis of Fratercula arctica subspecies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the consequences of ignoring the clustered data structure on allometric models. Clustered data, in the form of multiple trees sampled from multiple forest stands is commonly used to develop biomass allometric models. Of 102 reviewed papers published between 2012 and 2016 that reported biomass allometric models, 84 (82%) have used a clustered sampling design. However, in as many as 80% of these, the clustered data structure was ignored, potentially violating the independence assumption in ordinary least squares methods. The consequences of ignoring clustered data structure were empirically validated using two clustered biomass datasets (of 110 and 220 trees, with the cluster size of 5 and 10 trees respectively). We showed that when Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure returned underestimated standard errors, affecting further the confidence interval and t-test results. The underestimation level depended on ICC (which shows the variance proportion that was caused by the forest stand) and on cluster size (the number of trees sampled from one forest stand). We also showed that using first-order autocorrelation tests, such as the traditional Durbin-Watson statistic, to detect the autocorrelation due to clustered structure could be misleading as the test may show lack of autocorrelation even though ICC is different from zero. In conclusion, when ICC is higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure yields over-confident biomass predictions (due to underestimated confidence interval) and/or incorrect research conclusions (due to overestimated evidence against null hypothesis in t-test). Therefore, using a modelling approach that accounts for the hierarchical structure of the data is highly recommended when any form of clustering can be identified, even if the autocorrelation is not significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice production in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam (MRD) is endangered by sea-level rise and an associated increase in the incidence of salinity intrusion. This paper examines the diffusion of salt tolerant rice varieties in the MRD that were promoted through Consortium for Unfavorable Rice Environments (CURE) activities. Factors associated with adoption of CURE-related varieties are estimated using a random utilty model and a dataset of 800 farm households with rice fields in salinity prone areas of the MRD. Results suggest that there has been widespread adoption of CURE-related varieties in salinity-prone areas. Further, multivariate analysis reveals that environment and location characteristics, rather than household characteristics, are the most important determinants of adoption. In particular, CURE-related varieties are more likely to be adopted in high-salinity-risk areas that are not protected by salinity barrier gates. Neighbhors' adoption decisions also strongly influence household decisions to adopt CURE-related varieties. The contracting of mechanization, particularly for land preparation and harvest, requires the coordination of village households in timing of planting, harvest and varietal duration. This coordination appears to extend to choice of CURE-related varieties. Finally, CURE-related varieties and other varieties generate similar net revenues in a year with low salinity exposure, suggesting that CURE-related varieties are a low-cost insurance policy against salinity inundation in high risk areas. Combined, these results highlight the need to address complex factors beyond current economic profits, like environment, community choices, and risk mitigation, when designing technologies and policies that support farmer adaptation to climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) is considered an endangered species in most countries within its geographical range. The main reason for the decline in the number of populations of this species in Europe is habitat destruction. In this paper the ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the effect of future climate change on the area of niches suitable for C. calceolus. Predictions of the extent of the potential range of this species in 2070 were made using climate projections obtained from the Community Climate System Model for four representative concentration pathways: rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6.0 and rcp8.5. According to these analyses all the scenarios of future climate change will result in the total area of niches suitable for C. calceolus decreasing. Considering areas characterized by a suitability of at least 0.4 the loss of habitat will vary between ca. 30% and 63%. The highest habitat loss of ca. 63% is predicted to occur in scenario rcp 8.5. Surprisingly, in the most damaging rcp 8.5 prediction the highest overlap between potential range of C. calceolus and its pollinators will be observed and in all other scenarios some pollinators will be available for this species in various geographical regions. Based on these results at least two approaches should be implemented to improve the chances of survival of C. calceolus. In view of the unavoidable loss of suitable habitats in numerous European regions, conservation activities should be intensified in areas where this species will still have suitable niches in the next 50 years. In addition, for C. calceolus ex-situ activities should be greatly increased so that it can be re-introduced in the remaining suitable areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) had significant consequences in human eco-dynamics across Europe. Among the most striking impacts are the demographic contraction of modern humans into southern refugia and the potential formation of a population bottleneck. In Iberia and southern France transformations also included the occurrence of significant technological changes, mostly marked by the emergence of a diverse set of bifacially-shaped stone projectiles. The rapid dissemination of bifacial technologies and the geographical circumscription of specific projectile morphologies within these regions have been regarded as evidence for: (1) the existence of a system of long-distance exchange and social alliance networks; (2) the organization of human groups into cultural facies with well-defined stylistic territorial boundaries. However, the degree and modes in which cultural transmission have occurred within these territories, and how it may have influenced other domains of the adaptive systems, remains largely unknown. Using southern Iberia as a case-study, this paper presents the first quantitative approach to the organization of lithic technology and its relationship to hunter-gatherers' territorial organization during the LGM. Similarities and dissimilarities in the presence of morphological and metric data describing lithic technologies are used as a proxy to explore modes and degrees of cultural transmission. Statistical results show that similarities in technological options are dependent on the chronology and geographical distance between sites and corroborate previous arguments for the organization of LGM settlement in Southern Iberia into discrete eco-cultural facies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the correlation between climate, environment and human land use in the Westernmost Mediterranean on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar during the Late Glacial. Using a multi-proxy approach on a sample of 300 sites from the Solutrean and Magdalenian of the Iberian Peninsula and from the Iberomaurusian in Morocco, we find evidence for significant changes in settlement patterns and site density after the Last Glacial Maximum. In Southern Iberia, during Heinrich Stadial 1, hyperarid zones expanded drastically from the south-eastern coast to the West through the Interior. This aridification process heavily affected Magdalenian settlement in the South and caused a strong decline of hunter-gatherer population. Southern Iberia during Heinrich Stadial 1 turned out to be a high-risk environment when compared to Northern Iberia. At the same time, the Late Iberomaurusian of Morocco, although considered to be situated in a high-risk environment as well, experiences an increase of sites and expansion of settlement area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper brings advances in weather data collection and modeling, and developments in socioeconomic climate microsimulations to bear on the analysis of the implications of climate change (CC) in the design of public policies to combat food insecurity. It uses new downscaled predictions of future climate in 2050, derived from three Earth System Models calibrated with a new historical weather station dataset for Peru. This climate data is used in a three-stage socioeconomic microsimulation model that includes climate risk, and deals with the endogeneity of incomes and simultaneity of expected food consumption and its variability. We estimate the impact of CC on agricultural yields, and find results consistent and fully bounded within what the global simulations literature has found, with yields falling up to 13% in some regions. However, we show that these drops (and increases) in yields translate to much smaller changes in food consumption, and also surprisingly, to very minor impacts on vulnerability to food insecurity. The document explores what explains this surprising result, showing that in addition to characteristics that are specific to Peru, there are household and market mediating mechanisms that are available in all countries, which explain how changes in yields, and corresponding farm incomes have a reduced impact in vulnerability to food insecurity. Finally, in light of these findings, we explore which policies might have greater impact in reducing food insecurity in contexts of hunger prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objectives: Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods: The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results: A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions: Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Selecting appropriate environmental variables is a key step in ecology. Terrain attributes (e.g. slope, rugosity) are routinely used as abiotic surrogates of species distribution and to produce habitat maps that can be used in decision-making for conservation or management. Selecting appropriate terrain attributes for ecological studies may be a challenging process that can lead users to select a subjective, potentially sub-optimal combination of attributes for their applications. The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of subjectively selecting terrain attributes for ecological applications by comparing the performance of different combinations of terrain attributes in the production of habitat maps and species distribution models. Seven different selections of terrain attributes, alone or in combination with other environmental variables, were used to map benthic habitats of German Bank (off Nova Scotia, Canada). 29 maps of potential habitats based on unsupervised classifications of biophysical characteristics of German Bank were produced, and 29 species distribution models of sea scallops were generated using MaxEnt. The performances of the 58 maps were quantified and compared to evaluate the effectiveness of the various combinations of environmental variables. One of the combinations of terrain attributes–recommended in a related study and that includes a measure of relative position, slope, two measures of orientation, topographic mean and a measure of rugosity–yielded better results than the other selections for both methodologies, confirming that they together best describe terrain properties. Important differences in performance (up to 47% in accuracy measurement) and spatial outputs (up to 58% in spatial distribution of habitats) highlighted the importance of carefully selecting variables for ecological applications. This paper demonstrates that making a subjective choice of variables may reduce map accuracy and produce maps that do not adequately represent habitats and species distributions, thus having important implications when these maps are used for decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regulating ecosystem services provided by urban forests are of great importance for the quality of life among city dwellers. To reach a maximum contribution to well-being in cities, the urban regulating ecosystem services (URES) must match with the demands in terms of space and time. If we understand the matches or mismatches between the current urban dwellers’ desired quality conditions (demand) and the supply of URES by urban forests (UF) in the cities, this will facilitate integrating the concepts of ecosystem services in urban planning and management, but such an assessment has suffered from major knowledge limitations. Since it is complex and problematic to identify the direct demands for URES and the spatiotemporal patterns therein, improving the demand indicators can help to determine the actual requirements. In this paper, a methodological approach based on indicators is presented and demonstrated for two important URES: air quality improvement and global climate change mitigation provided by urban trees and shrubs. Four air quality standards and greenhouse gas reduction targets were used and compared to supplies of the URES in Tabriz, Iran. Our results show that the mean contribution of the URES supply to air quality standards and greenhouse gas reduction targets is modest. Hence, in Tabriz, there is a strong mismatch between demand and supply. Mismatches at the city scale will have to be reduced by both a reduction in pollutant emissions and an increased provisioning of URES supply through urban greenery. The presented assessment approach and the results for Tabriz make it explicit how different the demands and supplies of the two studied URES are, and we expect similar mismatches in many other cities. Therefore, our approach, relatively simple but still realistic and easy-to-apply, can raise awareness about, and the utility of, the ecosystem services concepts for urban planning and policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are major drivers of environmental change at all scales and are especially at risk from the ensuing effects, which include poor air quality, flooding and heat waves. Typically, these issues are studied on a city-by-city basis owing to the spatial complexity of built landscapes, local topography and emission patterns. However, to ensure knowledge sharing and to integrate local-scale processes with regional and global scale modelling initiatives, there is a pressing need for a world-wide database on cities that is suited for environmental studies. In this paper we present a European database that has a particular focus on characterising urbanised landscapes. It has been derived using tools and techniques developed as part of the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) project, which has the goal of acquiring and disseminating climate-relevant information on cities worldwide. The European map is the first major step toward creating a global database on cities that can be integrated with existing topographic and natural land-cover databases to support modelling initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce a scalable machine learning approach accompanied by open-source software for identifying violent and peaceful forms of political protest participation using social media data. While violent political protests are statistically rare events, they often shape public perceptions of political and social movements. This is, in part, due to the extensive and disproportionate media coverage which violent protest participation receives relative to peaceful protest participation. In the past, when a small number of media conglomerates served as the primary information source for learning about political and social movements, viewership and advertiser demands encouraged news organizations to focus on violent forms of political protest participation. Consequently, much of our knowledge about political protest participation is derived from data collected about violent protests, while less is known about peaceful forms of protest. Since the early 2000s, the digital revolution shifted attention away from traditional news sources toward social media as a primary source of information about current events. This, along with developments in machine learning which allow us to collect and analyze data relevant to political participation, present us with unique opportunities to expand our knowledge of peaceful and violent forms of political protest participation through social media data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines search and rescue and backcountry medical response constraints in the Canadian Arctic and potential for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to aid in response and preparedness. Semi-structured interviews (n = 18) were conducted with search and rescue responders, Elders, and emergency management officials to collect data on current emergency response and potential for UAV use. UAV test flights (n = 17) were undertaken with community members. We analyzed five years of weather data to examine UAV flight suitability. Numerous challenges face Arctic search and rescue and backcountry emergency response. Changing social and environmental conditions were described as increasing vulnerability to backcountry emergencies. Responders desired additional first aid and emergency training. Legal and weather restrictions were found to limit where, when and who could fly UAVs. UAVs were demonstrated to have potential benefits for hazard monitoring but not for SAR or medical response due to legal restrictions, weather margins, and local capacity. We find that communities are ill-prepared for ongoing SAR demands, let alone a larger disaster. There are numerous limitations to the use of consumer UAVs by Arctic communities. Prevention of backcountry medical emergencies, building resilience to disasters, and first responder training should be prioritized over introducing UAVs to the response system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Holocene climate variability in the Mediterranean Basin is often cited as a potential driver of societal change, but the mechanisms of this putative influence are generally little explored. In this paper we integrate two tools–agro-ecosystem modeling of potential agricultural yields and spatial analysis of archaeological settlement pattern data–in order to examine the human consequences of past climatic changes. Focusing on a case study in Provence (France), we adapt an agro-ecosystem model to the modeling of potential agricultural productivity during the Holocene. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data from a Mediterranean Holocene climate reconstruction, we estimate realistic potential agricultural yields under past climatic conditions. These serve as the basis for spatial analysis of archaeological settlement patterns, in which we examine the changing relationship over time between agricultural productivity and settlement location. Using potential agricultural productivity (PAgP) as a measure of the human consequences of climate changes, we focus on the relative magnitudes of 1) climate-driven shifts in PAgP and 2) the potential increases in productivity realizable through agricultural intensification. Together these offer a means of assessing the scale and mechanisms of the vulnerability and resilience of Holocene inhabitants of Provence to climate change. Our results suggest that settlement patterns were closely tied to PAgP throughout most of the Holocene, with the notable exception of the period from the Middle Bronze Age through the Early Iron Age. This pattern does not appear to be linked to any climatically-driven changes in PAgP, and conversely the most salient changes in PAgP during the Holocene cannot be clearly linked to any changes in settlement pattern. We argue that this constitutes evidence that vulnerability and resilience to climate change are strongly dependent on societal variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]