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This paper reviews the reconstruction of European Atlantic storm events with the contribution of a new stormy reconstruction in its central part. Three marsh environments on the island of Yeu were chosen to identify disturbing storm events from the Mid- to Late Holocene with vibracore sampling, radiocarbon dating and sedimentary analysis. Nine probable intervals of high energy deposition in these low-transport-activity environments are estimated: 600–500, near 1590, 2100–1950, 2850–2350, 3500–3270, 5400–5370, 6650–6510, near 7000 and between 7670 and 7470 calibrated years before present (cal y BP). By comparison with sedimentological paleostorm studies, we confirm six European Atlantic storm events estimated at near 600–300, 1700–1100, 2900–2500, 3500–3300, 5500–5100 and 7700–7100 cal y BP, corresponding to worldwide Holocene cooling climatic periods. A comparison with other storminess reviews of worldwide main stormy coasts shows that Holocene storms can increase during global cooling periods in the northern hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For geographers engaged in activities such as environmental planning and natural resource management, regional climate models are becoming increasingly important as a source of information about the possible impacts of future climate change. However, in order to make informed adaptation decisions, the uncertainties associated with their output must be recognized and taken into account. In this paper, the cascade of uncertainty from emissions scenario to global model to regional climate model is explored. The initial part of the discussion focuses on uncertainties associated with human action, such as emissions of greenhouse gases, and the climate system's response to increased greenhouse gas forcing, which includes climate sensitivity and feedbacks. In the second part of the discussion, uncertainties associated with climate modelling are explored with emphasis on the implications for regional scale analysis. Such uncertainties include parameterizations and resolutions, initial and boundary conditions inherited from the driving global model, intermodel variability and issues surrounding the validation or verification of models. The paper concludes with a critique of approaches employed to quantify or cater for uncertainties highlighting the strengths and limitations of such approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models to simulate the current and future climate change has flourished as a research topic during recent decades. This paper assesses the performance of multi-model ensembles in simulating global land temperature from 1960 to 1999, using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency and Taylor diagrams. The future trends of temperature for different scales and emission scenarios are projected based on the posterior model probabilities estimated by Bayesian methods. The results show that ensemble prediction can improve the accuracy of simulations of the spatiotemporal distribution of global temperature. The performance of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) at simulating the annual temperature dynamic is significantly better than single climate models and their simple model averaging (SMA). However, BMA simulation can demonstrate the temperature trend on the decadal scale, but its annual assessment of accuracy is relatively weak. The ensemble prediction presents dissimilarly accurate descriptions in different regions, and the best performance appears in Australia. The results also indicate that future temperatures in northern Asia rise with the greatest speed in some scenarios, and Australia is the most sensitive region for the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction, the impacts of climate change on agriculture production and water resources are discussed as an extension of this research. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The prediction of the impact of anthropogenic land use change on the climate system hinges on the ability to properly model the interaction between the heterogeneous land surface and the atmosphere in global climate models. This paper contains a review of techniques in general use for modeling this interaction in general circulation models (GCMs) that have been used to assess the impact of land use change on climate. The review includes a summary of GCM simulations of land cover change using these techniques, along with a description of the simulated physical mechanisms by which land cover change affects the climate. The vertical extent to which surface heterogeneities retain their individual character is an important consideration for the land-atmosphere coupling, and the description of a recently developed technique that improves this aspect of the coupling is presented. The differences in the simulated climate between this new technique and a technique in general use include the presence of a boundary layer feedback mechanism that is not present in simulations with the standard technique. We postulate that the new technique when implemented in a GCM has the potential to guide an improved understanding of the mechanisms by which anthropogenic land use change affects climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean ecosystems contain some of the highest levels of plant diversity of any region on Earth and are amongst those believed to be most at risk from the consequences of global warming. Yet such ecosystems are not static and have responded to environmental changes at a variety of scales and from a variety of causes, particularly climatic and anthropogenic. The purpose of this paper is to review recent research on environmental change and ecosystem response. Long-term records are available to analyse changes over glacial-interglacial cycles, while high resolution records show the sensitivity and coupling of Mediterranean, North Atlantic and Greenland records. For the Holocene, there is continued debate about the relative impact of anthropogenic activity, but there is also increasing recognition that mediterraneantype ecosystems should not be regarded as fragile, degraded landscapes, but are disturbanceadapted. Nevertheless, conservation measures face increasing challenges from contemporary climate change and human pressures. Some insights into the identification of refugial areas, either in glacial times or for present-day conservation purposes, come from molecular biogeographical studies of past faunal and floral distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]