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Water shortage has plagued the social development and human well-being of global closed basins. However, the hydroclimate research on different time scales in these regions remains inadequate at a global scale. In this paper, the hydrological responses from global closed basins to millennial-scale and centennial-scale cold/warm events since the Last Glacial Maximum were explored. Closed-basin lake records indicate that the westerlies-dominated closed basins are generally wetter during cold events than the corresponding warm ones on the millennial and centennial scales. In contrast, the monsoon-influenced closed basins prevail wetter climates during warm events. According to the hydroclimate simulations, precipitation seasonality plays a significant role in causing above spatial–temporal patterns. There is more winter rainfall in westerlies-dominated closed basins during cold events in the Last Glacial Maximum and Little Ice Age and more summer rainfall in monsoon-influenced closed basins during warm events in the mid-Holocene and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under modern and future global warming, the hydroclimate changes in global closed basins show more regional differentiation, resulting in wetter mid-latitude Asian and low-latitude African closed basins but drier southwest North American and Australian closed basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper adopts a technique common in the dynamical climate modelling literature, that of pattern scaling, and applies it to previously available statistically downscaled station level data for Ireland for two climatically relevant variables, that of temperature and precipitation. This technique allows for the rapid development of climate scenarios for additional emissions scenarios not previously available from the GCM modelling centres. Having derived the end of century (2080s) change in both these variables for four marker emissions scenarios (A1FI, A2, B2, B1), regional response rates, or the regional rate of warming per °C global warming at each station, were calculated. The estimated ranges in regional responses at each station were then compared to regional response rates for the Irish ‘grid box’ derived from a larger sample of 14 GCMs, in order to determine if the calculated response rates were illustrative of a wider suite of GCMs. A Monte Carlo (MC) resampling approach was then employed to sample regional response rates for selected stations and for different estimates of future warming. On the basis of the MC approach, probability distribution functions (pdfs) of simulated changes in temperature and precipitation were constructed and compared to the original statistically downscaled data. The methodology and results presented represent a significant contribution to the traditional approach of statistical downscaling through the development of associated likelihoods, rather than just a change in the mean value. While the methodology presented should enable the rapid development of probabilistic based climate projections, based on a limited availability of downscaled climate scenarios, caution needs to be exercised in the interpretation of the results. While they provide a basis for risk or policy assessment, estimates of the level of risk are not independent of the method employed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent rapid mass loss of mountain glaciers in response to climate warming has been reported for high and low latitudes all over the Earth. The paper analyses and discusses the recent evolution of a representative glacierized group within the Italian Alps, the Piazzi—Dosdè, where small glaciers are experiencing considerable retreat and shrinking. We analysed aerial photos to calculate area and geometry changes in the time window 1954—2003, and glaciological and geomorphological surveys were also performed. The estimated area change during 1954—2003 was —3.97 km2 (—51% of the area coverage in 1954). Area reduction increased more recently: area change during 1991—2003 (12 years) was —1.74 km2, against —0.67 km2 during 1981—1991 (10 years), and —1.57 km 2 during 1954—1981 (27 years). Moreover, analysis of the most recent orthophotos acquired during the summer of 2003 under exceptional conditions (i.e. total absence of snow cover) allowed observation and mapping of changes affecting glacier shape and morphology, including growing rock outcrops, tongue separations, formation of proglacial lakes, increasing supraglacial debris and collapse structures. Such processes cause positive feedbacks that accelerate further glacier disintegration once they appear. From a geodynamical perspective, the Dosdè Piazzi is now experiencing transition from a glacial system to a paraglacial one; areas where in the past the shaping and driving factors were glaciers are now subject to the action of melting water, slope evolution and periglacial processes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Mediterranean ecosystems contain some of the highest levels of plant diversity of any region on Earth and are amongst those believed to be most at risk from the consequences of global warming. Yet such ecosystems are not static and have responded to environmental changes at a variety of scales and from a variety of causes, particularly climatic and anthropogenic. The purpose of this paper is to review recent research on environmental change and ecosystem response. Long-term records are available to analyse changes over glacial-interglacial cycles, while high resolution records show the sensitivity and coupling of Mediterranean, North Atlantic and Greenland records. For the Holocene, there is continued debate about the relative impact of anthropogenic activity, but there is also increasing recognition that mediterraneantype ecosystems should not be regarded as fragile, degraded landscapes, but are disturbanceadapted. Nevertheless, conservation measures face increasing challenges from contemporary climate change and human pressures. Some insights into the identification of refugial areas, either in glacial times or for present-day conservation purposes, come from molecular biogeographical studies of past faunal and floral distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]