1. Bayesian updating of reliability of civil infrastructure facilities based on condition-state data and fault-tree model
- Author
-
Ching, Jianye and Leu, Sou-Sen
- Subjects
- *
BAYESIAN analysis , *RELIABILITY in engineering , *INFORMATION superhighway , *DATA modeling , *POISSON processes , *CIVIL engineering , *FAILURE Analysis System (Computer system) , *SYSTEMS engineering - Abstract
Abstract: This paper considers a difficult but practical circumstance of civil infrastructure management—deterioration/failure data of the infrastructure system are absent while only condition-state data of its components are available. The goal is to develop a framework for estimating time-varying reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities under such a circumstance. A novel method of analyzing time-varying condition-state data that only reports operational/non-operational status of the components is proposed to update the reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities. The proposed method assumes that the degradation arrivals can be modeled as a Poisson process with unknown time-varying arrival rate and damage impact and that the target system can be represented as a fault-tree model. To accommodate large uncertainties, a Bayesian algorithm is proposed, and the reliability of the infrastructure system can be quickly updated based on the condition-state data. Use of the new method is demonstrated with a real-world example of hydraulic spillway gate system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF