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A robust ionospheric model is indispensable for providing the atmospheric delay corrections for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) navigation and positioning and forecasting the space environment. The accuracy of ionospheric models is limited due to the simplified model structures. Complicated spatiotemporal variations in total electron content (TEC) biases between GNSS and international reference ionosphere (IRI) suggest a robust strategy to optimally combine GNSS and IRI TEC for high-precision modeling. In this paper, we propose a novel ionospheric data assimilation method, which is a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), to construct an ionospheric model over Yunnan in southwestern China. We used the LETKF method to assimilate the ionospheric TEC extracted from GNSS observations in Yunnan into the IRI-2016 model. The experimental results indicate that the ionospheric data assimilation has a more pronounced improvement effect on the IRI empirical model during periods of geomagnetic quiet than during periods of geomagnetic disturbance. On quiet magnetic days, the skill score (SKS) of the assimilation is 0.60 and the root mean square error (RMSE) values before and after assimilation are 5.08 TECU and 2.02 TECU, respectively. The correlation coefficient after assimilation increases from 0.94 to 0.99. On magnetic storm days, the SKS of the assimilation is 0.42 and the RMSE values before and after assimilation are 5.99 TECU and 3.46 TECU, respectively. The correlation coefficient after assimilation increases from 0.98 to 0.99. The results suggest that the LETKF algorithm can be considered an effective method for ionospheric data assimilation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we forecasted the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) over the region of China using the bidirectional convolutional gated recurrent unit (BiConvGRU) model. We first generated the China Regional Ionospheric Maps (CRIMs) using GNSS observations provide by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC). We then used gridded TEC maps from 2015 to 2018 with a 1 h interval from the CRIMs as the dataset, including quiet periods and storm periods of ionospheric TEC. The BiConvGRU model was then utilized to forecast the ionospheric TEC across China for the year 2018. The forecasted TEC was compared with the TEC from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2016), Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM), Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit (ConvGRU), Bidirectional Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (BiConvLSTM), and the 1-day Predicted Global Ionospheric Map (C1PG) provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). In addition, indices including Kp, ap, Dst and F10.7 were added to the training dataset to improve the forecasting accuracy of the model (-A indicates no indices, while -B indicates with indices). The results verified that the prediction accuracies of the models integrated with these indices were significantly improved, especially during geomagnetic storms. The BiConvGRU-B model presented a decrease of 41.5%, 22.3%, and 13.2% in the root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the IRI-2016, ConvGRU, and BiConvLSTM-B models during geomagnetic storm days. Furthermore, at a specific grid point, the BiConvGRU-B model showed a decrease of 42.6%, 49.1%, and 31.9% in RMSE during geomagnetic quiet days and 30.6%, 34.1%, and 15.1% during geomagnetic storm days compared to the IRI-2016, C1PG, and BiConvLSTM-B models, respectively. In the cumulative percentage analysis, the BiConvGRU-B model had a significantly higher percentage of mean absolute error (MAE) within the range of 0–1 TECU in all seasons compared to the BiConvLSTM-B model. Meanwhile, the BiConvGRU-B model outperformed the BiConvLSTM-B model with lower RMSE for each month of 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ionospheric total electron content (TEC) is important data for ionospheric morphology, and also an important parameter for ionospheric correction in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) precise positioning, navigation, and radio science. In this study, we present a data assimilation model for regional ionosphere based on a local ensemble Kalman filter (LEnKF) with the International Reference Ionosphere 2016 (IRI-2016) model as the background, to assimilate ionospheric TEC observations from GNSS. To demonstrate the results, the TEC estimates from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC), which is about 260 stations in China, are applied as observation. The assessments are performed against the TEC estimates from BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) geostationary earth orbit (GEO) and against the final products from the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). The assimilation results are in good agreement with BDS GEO TEC and the CODE TEC on a quiet or disturbed day. The correlation coefficient after assimilation is increased by about 17% compared with that before assimilation, and the RMSE after assimilation is decreased by about 42% compared with that before assimilation. Furthermore, the assimilated method is also evaluated in the single-frequency precise point positioning (PPP). The experimental results indicate that the PPP/Assimilated method can improve the GNSS positioning accuracy more effectively in comparison to the PPP/CODE. These results reveal that the LEnKF method can be considered as a useful tool for ionospheric assimilation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ionospheric forecasts are critical for space-weather anomaly detection. Forecasting ionospheric total electron content (TEC) from the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) is of great significance to near-earth space environment monitoring. In this study, we propose a novel ionospheric TEC forecasting model based on deep learning, which consists of a convolutional neural network (CNN), long-short term memory (LSTM) neural network, and attention mechanism. The attention mechanism is added to the pooling layer and the fully connected layer to assign weights to improve the model. We use observation data from 24 GNSS stations from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) to model and forecast ionospheric TEC. We drive the model with six parameters of the TEC time series, Bz, Kp, Dst, and F10.7 indices and hour of day (HD). The new model is compared with the empirical model and the traditional neural network model. Experimental results show the CNN-LSTM-Attention neural network model performs well when compared to NeQuick, LSTM, and CNN-LSTM forecast models with a root mean square error (RMSE) and R2 of 1.87 TECU and 0.90, respectively. The accuracy and correlation of the prediction results remained stable in different months and under different geomagnetic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the ionospheric disturbance responses over low-latitude regions by using total electron content from Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) satellites of the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS), ionosonde data and Swarm satellite data, during the geomagnetic storm in August 2018. The results show that a prominent total electron content (TEC) enhancement over low-latitude regions is observed during the main phase of the storm. There is a persistent TEC increase lasting for about 1–2 days and a moderately positive disturbance response during the recovery phase on 27–28 August, which distinguishes from the general performance of ionospheric TEC in the previous storms. We also find that this phenomenon is a unique local-area disturbance of the ionosphere during the recovery phase of the storm. The enhanced f o F 2 and h m F 2 of the ionospheric F2 layer is observed by SANYA and LEARMONTH ionosonde stations during the recovery phase. The electron density from Swarm satellites shows a strong equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest over the low-latitude area during the main phase of storm, which is simultaneous with the uplift of the ionospheric F2 layer from the SANYA ionosonde. Meanwhile, the thermosphere O/N2 ratio shows a local increase on 27–28 August over low-latitude regions. From the above results, this study suggests that the uplift of F layer height and the enhanced O/N2 ratio are possibly main factors causing the local-area positive disturbance responses during the recovery phase of the storm in August 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate corrections for ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and early warning information are crucial for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) applications under the influence of space weather. In this study, we propose to use a new machine learning model—the Prophet model, to predict the global ionospheric TEC by establishing a short-term ionospheric prediction model. We use 15th-order spherical harmonic coefficients provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) as the training data set. Historical spherical harmonic coefficient data from 7 days, 15 days, and 30 days are used as the training set to model and predict 256 spherical harmonic coefficients. We use the predicted coefficients to generate a global ionospheric TEC forecast map based on the spherical harmonic function model and select a year with low solar activity (63.4 < F10.7 < 81.8) and a year with the high solar activity (79.5 < F10.7 < 255.0) to carry out a sliding 2-day forecast experiment. Meanwhile, we verify the model performance by comparing the forecasting results with the CODE forecast product (COPG) and final product (CODG). The results show that we obtain the best predictions by using 15 days of historical data as the training set. Compared with the results of CODE'S 1-Day (C1PG) and CODE'S 2-Day (C2PG). The number of days with RMSE better than COPG on the first and second day of the low-solar-activity year is 151 and 158 days, respectively. This statistic for high-solar-activity year is 183 days and 135 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]