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Abstract: This paper presents a study based on the Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning (STSP) method, focusing the biodiesel production chain of Rio Grande do Sul State. The aim of the study was to identify key elements to comprehend the systemic structure of interaction among the ties of this chain. The study was held by a team of specialists over five months, including 15 meetings. Discussions were based on quantitative and qualitative data and a systemic map was constructed and refined. Based on this modeling, four different prospective scenarios were comparatively analyzed in order to propose strategic actions to promote the sustainability and competitiveness of the chain. The results were then presented to two different groups of external specialists in order to validate the conclusions drawn and the proposals. Both groups agreed with the ideas presented. The paper is constructed as follows: a brief introduction focusing on contextual elements of the biodiesel production in Brazil and in Rio Grande do Sul; some background material regarding agroindustrial production chains and an overview of the biodiesel production chain of interest; a description of the method used to perform the research; main results and discussion; and conclusions. With this paper the authors also hope to contribute to the discussion regarding competitiveness and sustainability of biofuel chains in Brazil. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Bagasse from sugarcane is traditionally used in the Brazilian sugar and ethanol industry to meet the energy needs of its own production processes and, more recently, to generate surplus electricity for sale on the national grid. Currently, the industry faces a difficult choice between either enhancing electricity generation or increasing ethanol production through the biochemical processing of bagasse. The aim of this paper is to examine the most promising technical configurations for bioenergy production using sugarcane bagasse and to discuss which configuration would be the most attractive investment option for the industry. At present, electricity generation through Rankine cycle power plants is the only commercially available alternative. Nevertheless, the analysis cannot be restricted only to the short term. For this purpose, cost analysis for 2030 were developed, and even in scenarios where there is an effective cost reduction of untradeable routes, the alternative of burning bagasse to generate electricity provides the most benefits from an investor perspective. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]