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With the growing share of the climate-sensitive renewable energy market supply in China, estimating future energy drought risk (ED) is essential. In this paper, based on CMIP6, energy demand and power generation are estimated from 2023 to 2100 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios, and ED is defined from high demand (HD), low wind-solar generation (LWS), and residual load (RL). The results show that the ED exacerbation is relatively high under the SSP5-8.5. Between 2023 and 2100, the duration and severity of HD and RL notably increase, while LWS changes are relatively weak. We find that HD and RL exhibit high summer risks in the south and high winter risk in the north. The return periods vary significantly and extends over time in most regions. Moreover, there are few ED when the installed power generation capacity (IPGC) is increased. When the IPGC increases by 2%–5%, the LWS will decrease at least 20%–72%. With a 10% increase, the LWS will be mitigated by at least 80%, whereas the mitigation for RL is limited, approximately 3–17% at different rates. This work performs the first evaluation of future ED and provides the useful references for risk mitigation in China based on CMIP6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying the research topics of China's energy transition policy and predicting future research trends are crucial for policymakers to make informed decisions and advance the energy transition. This study applied the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to extract 26 major research topics from the 13,976 abstracts of Chinese policy research papers in web of science (WOS), conceptualized the five most popular topics and used the ARIMA model to predict trends over the next 36 months. The results show that except for Economic and Environmental Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption (Topic13), which will first experience unanticipated fluctuations and then show strong growth capacity, all other topics will continue to remain positive growth trend. Research and Development (Topic3) is driven by the urgency of China's energy transformation. Economic and Environmental Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption (Topic13) is driven by the potential for the development of renewable energy. Economic Impact of Climate Change (Topic26) is driven by the climate change debate. Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Energy Consumption (Topic7) is driven by a discussion of their relationship and the mechanisms influencing them. Regional Efficiency and Productivity Analysis (Topic19) is driven by regional differences in China's energy policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]