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As large-scale ocean circulation is a key regulator in the redistribution of oceanic energy, evaluating the multi-decadal trends in the western Pacific Ocean circulation under global warming is essential for not only understanding the basic physical processes but also predicting future climate change in the western Pacific. Employing the hydrological observations of World Ocean Atlas 2018 (WOA18) from 1955 to 2017, this study calculated the geostrophic currents, volume transport and multi-decadal trends for the North Equatorial Current (NEC), the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), the Mindanao Current (MC), the Kuroshio Current (KC) in the origin and the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCUC) within tropical western Pacific Ocean over multi-decades. Furthermore, this study examined the contributions of temperature and salinity variations. The results showed significant strengthening trends in NEC, MC and NGCUC over the past six decades, which is mainly contributed by temperature variations and consistent with the tendency in the dynamic height pattern. Zonal wind stress averaged over the western Pacific Ocean in the same latitude of each current represents the decadal variation and multi-decadal trends in corresponding ocean currents, indicating that the trade wind forcing plays an important role in the decadal trend in the tropical western Pacific circulation. Uncertainties in the observed hydrological data and trends in the currents over the tropical western Pacific are also discussed. Given that the WOA18 dataset covers most of the historical hydrological sampling data for the tropical western Pacific, this paper provides important observational information on the multi-decadal trend of the large-scale ocean circulation in the western Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (3P-DGAC) developed in recent years, including the decomposition model and the dynamical equations of global horizontal, meridional, and zonal circulations. Compared with the traditional two-dimensional (2D) circulation decomposition method, the 3P-DGAC can effectively decompose the actual vertical vorticity into two components that are caused by the horizontal circulation and convergent/divergent movement (associated with the meridional and zonal circulations). It also decomposes the vertical velocity into the components of the meridional vertical circulation and the zonal vertical circulation, thus providing a new method to study the dynamical influences of convergent/divergent motions on the evolution of actual vertical vorticity and an accurate description of local vertical circulations. The 3P-DGAC is a three-dimensional (3D) circulation decomposition method based on the main characteristics of the actual atmospheric movements. The horizontal, meridional, and zonal circulations after the 3P-DGAC are the global generalization of Rossby waves in the middle-high latitudes and Hadley and Walker circulations in low latitudes. Therefore, the three-pattern decomposition model and its dynamical equations provide novel theoretical tools for studying complex interactions between middle-high and low latitude circulations as well as the physical mechanisms of the abnormal evolution of large-scale atmospheric circulations under the background of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional dynamical downscaling (TDD) method employs continuous integration of regional climate models (RCM) with the general circulation model (GCM) providing the initial and lateral boundary conditions. Dynamical downscaling simulations are constrained by physical principles and can generate a full set of climate information, providing one of the important approaches to projecting fine spatial-scale future climate information. However, the systematic biases of climate models often degrade the TDD simulations and hinder the application of dynamical downscaling in the climate-change related studies. New methods developed over past decades improve the performance of dynamical downscaling simulations. These methods can be divided into four groups: the TDD method, the pseudo global warming method, dynamical downscaling with GCM bias corrections, and dynamical downscaling with both GCM and RCM bias corrections. These dynamical downscaling methods are reviewed and compared in this paper. The merits and limitations of each dynamical downscaling method are also discussed. In addition, the challenges and potential directions in progressing dynamical downscaling methods are stated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air temperature feedback results from the thermal-radiative coupling between the atmosphere and the surface and plays an important role in surface energy balance. This paper reveals the contribution of air temperature feedback to the global warming from 1980 to 2000. The air temperature feedback kernel, evaluated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, is used to discuss the physical mechanism for air temperature feedback, the dependency of the strength of air temperature feedback on the climatological spatial distributions of air temperature, water vapor and cloud content, and the contributions of air temperature feedback to rapid global warming. The coupling between temperature feedback and each of the external forcings and individual feedback processes will amplify the anomaly of direct energy flux convergence at the surface induced by the external forcings and individual processes. The air temperature feedback amplifies the initial surface warming due to the increase in CO2 concentration, ice and snow melting, increase in water vapor, and change in ocean heat storage. It also amplifies the surface warming due to the longwave radiaitve forcing associated with the increase in cloud cover, which acts to suppress the cooling of the shortwave effect of cloud forcing. Overall, temperature feedback plays an important role in the global warming from 1980 to 2000, as the net positive contribution to the perturbation of global mean energy flux at the surface from the air temperature feedback is larger than the net negative contribution from external forcing and all non-temperature feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate warming is mainly due to the increase in concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, of which CO is the most important one responsible for radiative forcing of the climate. In order to reduce the great estimation uncertainty of atmospheric CO concentrations, several CO-related satellites have been successfully launched and many future greenhouse gas monitoring missions are planned. In this paper, we review the development of CO retrieval algorithms, spatial interpolation methods and ground observations. The main findings include: 1) current CO retrieval algorithms only partially account for atmospheric scattering effects; 2) the accurate estimation of the vertical profile of greenhouse gas concentrations is a long-term challenge for remote sensing techniques; 3) ground-based observations are too sparse to accurately infer CO concentrations on regional scales; and 4) accuracy is the primary challenge of satellite estimation of CO concentrations. These findings, taken as a whole, point to the need to develop a high accuracy method for simulation of carbon sources and sinks on the basis of the fundamental theorem of Earth's surface modelling, which is able to efficiently fuse space- and ground-based measurements on the one hand and work with atmospheric transport models on the other hand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The question of whether or not global warming has paused since more than ten years ago, namely 'warming hiatus', has attracted the attention of climate science community including the IPCC. Some authors have attributed the 'warming hiatus' to the internal changes in the climate system, i.e., the recombination of ocean-atmosphere circulations. Therefore, it is necessary to propose higher requirements on reconstructing circulation background of climate change for the past millennium. However, the analyses of changes in atmospheric circulation over the last millennium as well as the conclusions of related regional climate patterns are so widely different and contradictory, bringing uncertainties to our understanding of regional even global climate change to a great extent. On the other hand, in the last 10 years the high-precision U/Th-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope ratio ( δO) sequences provided an accurate chronological frame for the paleoclimate study of the middle and late Pleistocene, in which all authors from China took the Chinese stalagmite δO as the summer monsoon index without exception. However, this point of view misleads the climate scientists into thinking that the stalagmite δO can be as the proxy of precipitation amount. Nevertheless, it is well known that all of these records have a lot in common in the low frequency trend. However, most sequences cannot be calibrated by instrumental precipitation records, and thus the uncertainty of the climate research framework of China and even of the world has increased. Therefore, it is imperative for climatology to clarify the origin of contradiction and to reduce the uncertainty as early as possible. On the basis of analyzing the significance of stalagmite δO in the monsoon regions of China, the author tries to propose a new circulation proxy in this paper: integrating the Chinese stalagmite oxygen isotope sequence to reconstruct the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, i.e., the large-scale ENSO-like state over the past millennium. Furthermore, the author speculates that it was warm in the modern times and the Medieval Period, but the circulation recombination was different in both periods. And this inference could be supported by the longer record since Last Glacial Maximum. In other words, the attribution analysis of the identical low-frequency trends of Chinese stalagmite δO on a large scale shows that the ENSO-like state controls the climate change in the monsoon regions of China at different time scales (from interannual to century or even longer time scales). Wherein the important connection of circulations is the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), that is to say, besides the interannual and decadal time scales, the WPSH would possess the circulation mode on longer timescales. For example, we may discuss the change of the WPSH in the whole Holocene epoch, i.e., the half precession period. These discussions could make sense to the study of not only the paleoclimate but also the modern climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and its possible ecological consequences have become the focused issue (IPCC, 2007; Mann et al., 2008; Ding et al., 2009). The Holocene contains the analogous characteristic of future climatic change and the continuous agriculture activity, providing the ideal “similar pattern” for studying the climate change and human adaption and impact in the future. Based on the recent studies of stalagmite, ice core, ocean, and lake etc., the paper introduces the new progress in the Holocene climate and agriculture research in China as follows: (1) Discuss the variability, amplitude, and unstable characteristic of climate, as well as the abrupt events and mechanisms of climate. (2) Analyze the botanical index records for studying the early agriculture. (3) Review the agricultural origin, expanding, and development. (4) Reveal the style and intensity of early agriculture and understand the agricultural impact and adaption to the environmental changes. (5) Introduce ongoing research projects in China and emphasize the significance of increasing the dating precision and the indicative effectiveness of proxies. (6) Realize how the ecosystem and environmental factors respond to the increasing temperature process, understand how the human adapt to the rapid climate change, and provide the scientific basis for assessing the effects of climate change and the human adaption in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews both the recent and longer-term (Holocene) ecological history of coral reefs in the South China Sea (SCS). (1) Local ecological monitoring since the 1960s shows that the coral reefs in the South China Sea have declined dramatically, reflecting the rapid decrease of living coral cover and the great loss of symbiotic zooxanthellae. Collectively, this has led to a significant decrease of annual CaCO production. Heavy anthropogenic activities and global warming are recognized as major triggers of the observed coral reef degradation. Observations show that the modern coral reefs in the SCS are a source of atmospheric CO in summer. (2) Coral reefs of the SCS have been widely used to reveal longer-term environmental variations, including Holocene high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) and abrupt climate events, millennial-scale El Niño variations, millennial- and centennial-scale sea level oscillations, strong and cyclic storm activities, East Asian monsoon intensities, variation in seawater pH, and recent seawater pollution. (3) Coral reefs of the southern SCS have experienced repeated episodes of bleaching over the last 200 years due to high SST and intense El Niño events; coral reefs of the northern SCS suffered high levels of mortality during several abrupt winter cold-water bleaching events during the middle Holocene warm period. On average, recovery after the middle Holocene cold-bleaching took 20-30 years; recovery following other middle Holocene environmental stresses took approximately 10-20 years. Such findings have significantly contributed to the understanding of the present ecological pressures faced by the coral reefs in the SCS, the histories of Holocene climate/environment changes, and the long-term models of coral reef responses to various past environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate projection using climate models that took account of both human and natural factors provided credible quantitative estimates of future climate change; however, the mismatches between the IPCC AR4 model ensembles and the observations, especially the multi-decadal variability (MDV), have cast shadows on the confidence of the model-based decadal projections of future climate. This paper reports an evaluation of many individual runs of AR4 models in the simulation of past global mean temperature. We find that most of the individual model runs fail to reproduce the MDV of past climate, which may have led to the overestimation of the projection of global warming for the next 40 years or so. Based on such an evaluation, we propose an alternative approach, in which the MDV signal is taken into account, to project the global mean temperature for the next 40 years and obtain that the global warming during 2011-2050 could be much smaller than the AR4 projection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]