1. Dynamic activity chain pattern estimation under mobility demand changes during COVID-19.
- Author
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Liu, Yan, Tong, Lu Carol, Zhu, Xi, and Du, Wenbo
- Subjects
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COVID-19 pandemic , *COVID-19 , *DISCRETE choice models , *LOGISTIC regression analysis , *CITY dwellers , *PUBLIC spaces - Abstract
• Proposing an interpretable utility-based framework for dynamic activity pattern estimation. • Mapping from individual trip chains to aggregated activity location types. • Estimating traveler behavior with the support of multiple data sources. • Integrating machine learning tools, nested logit model and transportation domain knowledge. • Testing the proposed framework using 2017 national household survey and Google mobility dataset. During the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the activity engagement and travel behavior of city residents have been impacted by government restrictions, such as temporary city-wide lockdowns, the closure of public areas and public transport suspension. Based on multiple heterogeneous data sources, which include aggregated mobility change reports and household survey data, this paper proposes a machine learning approach for dynamic activity chain pattern estimation with improved interpretability for examining behavioral pattern adjustments. Based on historical household survey samples, we first establish a computational graph-based discrete choice model to estimate the baseline travel tour parameters before the pandemic. To further capture structural deviations of activity chain patterns from day-by-day time series, we define the activity-oriented deviation parameters within an interpretable utility-based nested logit model framework, which are further estimated through a constrained optimization problem. By incorporating the long short-term memory method as the explainable module to capture the complex periodic and trend information before and after interventions, we predict day-to-day activity chain patterns with more accuracy. The performance of our model is examined based on publicly available datasets such as the 2017 National Household Travel Survey in the United States and the Google Global Mobility Dataset throughout the epidemic period. Our model could shed more light on transportation planning, policy adaptation and management decisions during the pandemic and post-pandemic phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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