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This paper forecasts the growth of freight transport emissions in India's trucking sector until 2050. We use the ARIMAX time series model to project the commercial vehicle population under various economic growth scenarios. CO 2 emissions are estimated using emission factors, distance traveled, and the projected commercial vehicle population. We use the validated forecasting model to investigate how emissions can be curbed through vehicle scrappage policies or fleet electrification to realign with the 2015 Paris Agreement's targets. Compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, 10-year and 15-year vehicle scrappage policies are estimated to reduce freight emissions by 6–11% and 1–2%, respectively. Fleet electrification has more pronounced effects as it results in a 35% and 70% reduction in carbon emissions for heavy and light goods vehicles in 2050, respectively, compared to the BAU scenario. These findings provide crucial insights for devising policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in India's trucking industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the climate emergency, it is necessary to model and forecast road transport emissions for implementing more effective climate policy. This paper fills an important research gap by quantifying the challenges, barriers and remedies of achieving road transport emission reduction and air quality improvement in developing countries. It contributes to the debate on top-down and bottom-up approaches to reconcile carbon and other transport related emissions. China and India are chosen as case studies. Using various official statistics and proxy variables, we estimate and compare the road transport carbon emissions of the two countries systematically from 2009 to 2020. Insights from detailed mode-specific estimations of the bottom-up approach are valuable for targeted policies and measures. An analysis of the major components of road transport carbon emissions points to strategies of promoting electric vehicles, reducing transport demand, accelerating modal shift to low-carbon modes, and cleaner electricity to achieve climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]