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The important epidemic situation diffusion function is built by using evolutionary game theory, where the strategy interaction and behavioral evolution between government and social public are considered into the traditional infectious disease diffusion SI model. According to the daily new confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) promulgated by Chinese Ministry of Health, the paper makes the Logistic estimation for the epidemic situation diffusion course in the early stage, and makes forecasting analysis of peak-value under three evolutionary scenarios, i.e., large-scale diffusion, rapid control and currently active prevention and control. At last, it puts forward the prudence principle in the early stage, the flexibility principle to adjust prevention and control measures timely along with the epidemic situation development, and the influence factors to be considered in choosing favorable adjusting opportunity. The effect of government adjusting the prevention and control strategies on influenza A diffusion is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]