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The increasing global warming trend has resulted in the mass loss of most glaciers. The Urumqi Vally, located in the dry and cold zone of China, and its widely dispersed glaciers are significant to the regional ecological environment, oasis economic development, and industrial and agricultural production. This is representative of glaciers in Middle Asia and represents one of the world's longest observed time series of glaciers, beginning in 1959. The Urumqi Headwater Glacier No. 1 (UHG-1) has a dominant presence in the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). This paper supplies a comprehensive analysis of past studies and future modeling of glacier changes in the Urumqi Valley. It has received insufficient attention in the past, and the mass balance of UHG-1 was used to verify that the geodetic results and the OGGM model simulation results are convincing. The main conclusions are: The area of 48.68 ± 4.59 km2 delineated by 150 glaciers in 1958 decreased to 21.61 ± 0.27 km2 delineated by 108 glaciers in 2022, with a reduction of 0.47 ± 0.04 km2·a−1 (0.96% a−1 in 1958–2022). The glacier mass balance by geodesy is −0.69 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1 in 2000–2022, which is just deviating from the measured result (−0.66 m w.e.a−1), but the geodetic result in this paper can be enough to reflect the glacier changes (−0.65 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1) of the URB in 2000–2022. The future loss rate of area and volume will undergo a rapid and then decelerating process, with the fastest and slowest inflection points occurring around 2035 and 2070, respectively. High temperatures and large precipitation in summer accelerate glacier loss, and the corresponding lag period of glacier change to climate is about 2–3 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Together with other elevated areas, the Mountains of Central Asia are significantly threatened by ongoing climate change. The presence of refuges during the glaciations makes the region extremely rich in species, especially endemic ones. However, the limited potential for colonisation of other habitats makes rocky-related species with 'island‐like' distribution, particularly vulnerable to climate change. To understand the processes underlying species response to climate warming, we assessed differences in ecological niches and phylogenetic relationship of two geographically disjunctive alpine species belonging to the genus Sergia. The taxa are considered Tertiary relicts, endemic to the Tian Shan and Pamir-Alai Mountains. To illustrate range dynamics and differences in occupied niches of Sergia species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling of current and future distribution. Whereas, to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship within and between Sergia and other related Campanulaceae species from the region we used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq-derived SNPs). Results: The results reveal that the genus Sergia is a polyphyletic group, and its representatives differ geographically, ecologically and genetically. Both S. regelii and S. sewerzowii constitute a common clade with Asyneuma group, however, S. sewerzowii is more closely related to Campanula alberti (a species that has never previously been considered closely related to the genus Asyneuma or Sergia) than to S. regelii. Sergia sewerzowii is adapted to lower elevations with higher temperatures, while S. regelii prefers higher elevations with lower temperatures. The future distribution models demonstrate a dramatic loss of S. regelii range with a shift to suitable habitats in higher elevations, while the potential range of S. sewerzowii increases and shifts to the north. Conclusions: This study shows that S. regelii and S. sewerzowii have a long and independent evolution history. Sergia regelii and S. sewerzowii significantly differ in realised niches. These differences are mirrored in the response of the studied endemics to future climate warming. As suitable habitats shrink, rapid changes in distribution can lead to species' range loss, which is also directly related to declines in genetic variability. The outcomes of this paper will help to more precisely assess the impact of climate changes on rocky-related plant species found in this world's biodiversity hotspot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary aspiration of this paper is to learn about the effects of economic growth, energy consumption, agriculture and irrigation water consumption and agriculture productivity on environmental pollution in five countries of Central Asia. The data cover the period from 1992 to 2020 by applying panel data models, namely the Panel FMOLS, Panel DOLS and Panel ARDL-PMG approaches. The results indicate that there is a positive long-term impact of economic growth, water productivity, energy consumption and electricity production on CO2 emissions while agriculture value added and trade openness have a negative and statistically significant influence on CO2 emissions in Central Asia. Country specific short-run coefficients from Panel ARDL reveal that energy consumption is the main driver for rise in the level of CO2 emissions in the countries under the study. Indeed, country level analysis generates unique nexus correlation among agriculture, energy and environmental degradation in each country of Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier mass balance can be regarded as a major direct index of climate variations. In this paper, a geodetic method was used to evaluate the mass balance of Sawir glaciers based on topographic map DEM (Digital Elevation Model), SRTM 30 m DEM, ASTER 30 m DEM, and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar 10 m DEM between 1959–2021, in order to explore the response to climatic alterations. In the case of Muz Taw glacier, the first comprehensive dataset concerning mass-balance readings for the 2014–2021 period was provided based on the eight-year consecutive field measurements. The glaciological average mass balance reached –883.4 ± 130 mm a–1 during this period. The geodetic mass balance for all glaciers of the Sawir Mountain range was −0.43 ± 0.12 m w. e. a−1 between 1959 and 2000, and accelerated to −0.56 ± 0.13 m w. e. a−1 between 2000 and 2021. A comparison of field measurements and remote-sensing approaches for determining the Muz Taw glacier's mass balance between 2014–2021 proves the feasibility of the remote-sensing approach, which involves mass-balance monitoring based on DEMdata. In addition, our findings support the contention that air temperature is the dominant factor for accelerated glacier mass loss and surface elevation change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number and area of alpine lakes in Tien Shan (TS) are rapidly growing in response to a warming climate and retreating glaciers. This paper presents a comparative analysis of lake classification and changes by dividing alpine lakes (within a 10 km buffer of the glacier margins) into four types (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes, extraglacial lakes and non-glacial lakes), and subsequently determining the driving forces of change across the TS region from 1990 to 2015. The analysis utilized multiple satellite images and climatic data from gridded data sets and meteorological station observations. The results indicate that the total number and area of glacial lakes continuously increased during the study period, whereas non-glacial lakes intermittently expanded. Specifically, the total number and area of all glacial lakes (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes and extraglacial lakes) increased by 45.45% and 27.08%, respectively. Non-glacial lakes, in contrast, increased in quantity and area by 23.92% and 19.01%, respectively. Alpine lakes are closer to glaciers at high altitudes; in fact, some (e.g., proglacial lakes) are connected to glacier termini, and these show the highest expansion speed during the study period. The area of proglacial lakes expanded by 60.32%. Extraglacial lakes expanded by 21.06%. Supraglacial lakes, in marked contrast to the other types, decreased in area by 3.74%. Widespread rises in temperature and glacier wastage were the primary cause of the steady expansion of glacial lakes, particularly those linked to small- and medium-sized glaciers distributed in the Eastern TS where glacial lakes have rapidly increased. Both proglacial and extraglacial lakes expanded by 6.47%/a and 2%/a, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. While these proglacial and extraglacial lakes are located in largely glacierized areas, lakes in the Central TS exhibited the slowest expansion, increasing in area by 1.44%/a and 0.74%/a, respectively. Alterations in non-glacial lake areas were driven by changes in precipitation and varied spatially over the region. This study has substantial implications for the state of water resources under the complex regional changes in climate in the TS and can be used to develop useful water-resource management and planning strategies throughout Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) are likely to cause more severe natural disasters than a single extreme event, and they have been exacerbated by rapid global warming. Based on high-resolution grid data, this study combines the daily-scale ERA5-Land dataset and the monthly-scale SPEI dataset with multiple indicators to analyze CDHWs. We calculated and analyzed the temporal and spatial modal distribution of CDHWs in Central Asia from 1981 to 2018, and in this paper, we discuss the sequence relationship between drought events, heatwave events, and CDHWs. The results show that the number of CDHWs in the study region have increased over time and expanded in terms of area, especially in eastern and southwestern Central Asia. The tsum (total frequency of CDHWs) was 0.5 times higher than the total heatwave frequency and it increased at a rate of 0.17/yr. The maximum duration of tmax (maximum duration of CDHWs in days) was 17 days. Furthermore, the occurrence rate of tmax was 96.67%, and the AH (CDHWs' accumulated heat) had a rate of 97.78%, which, upon examination of the spatial trend pattern, accounted for the largest increase in terms of area. We also found that the TAH (CDHWs' average temperature anomalies, SPEI < −0.5) shows obvious seasonality, with the increases in winter and spring being significantly greater than the increases in summer and autumn. The intensity of the CDHWs was stronger than that of a single extreme event, the temperature anomaly was higher than the average of 0.4–0.8 °C, and there was a north–south spatial pattern across the study region. In eastern and northwestern Central Asia, the AH and heatwaves (SPEI < −0.5) increased by 15–30 times per year on average. During the transition from the base period to the reference period, CDHWs increased by 25%, and the number of dry days prior to the CDHWs decreased by 7.35 days. The conclusion of our study can provide a theoretical basis for coping with climate change in arid zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to introduce different views regarding the concept of adaptive capacity in water governance and unpack it in the Central Asian context, specifically. The desk study research built on the recommendations provided by the academia, policy papers and by experts on enhancing adaptive water governance. The juxtaposition of the three sets of recommendations demonstrates that the further strengthening of IWRM, as well as experimental approach to resource management, improved access to climate knowledge and disaster risk reduction mechanisms can consolidate the adaptive capacities of Central Asian water governance systems. The research was limited by the specific set of selected opinions and should be expanded in the future. As a practical outcome, the analysis aimed to provide the decision-makers in Central Asian states with better science-based avenues to planning adaptation measures ensuite the water sector. Thus, the study can be considered a stepping stone in the discussion on the adaptive capacities of water governance in the Central Asian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persian walnut (Juglans regia L.), which is native to Central Asia, has been widely cultivated throughout Europe over millennia as a multipurpose tree. However, only recently the naturalization process outside cultivation has been studied, mostly in temperate Europe, with no information regarding the Mediterranean region. Here we provide the first field investigations about the natural regeneration of walnut in two traditional Mediterranean agroecosystems: an irrigated mixed orchard in suburban areas and a non-irrigated prickly pear (Opuntia ficusindica [L.] Mill.) orchard. The natural regeneration densities were statistically different in the two agroecosystems, ranging from 75 individuals per hectare in the prickly pear orchard to 200 individuals per hectare in the mixed orchard. Crows were frequently observed actively carrying walnuts in both environments. The irrigation practices and the shade provided by larger trees in the mixed orchard, and the potential benefits provided by prickly pear individuals, seemed to be crucial for seedling establishment and development in the two orchards, respectively. On the other hand, climate does not seem to represent a constraint for walnut recruitment, even if the mean annual temperature at the mixed orchard is slightly above the optimal temperature for walnut. Other biotic and abiotic factors that may trigger or hamper the naturalization process are also discussed in this paper, which explores the research needs for better understanding the naturalization potential of the Persian walnut in Mediterranean agroecosystems, as well as the effects of different land uses and future climate change on this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its extension, geography and the presence of several underdeveloped or developing economies, the Central Asia domain of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is one of the most vulnerable regions on Earth to the effects of climate changes. Reliable information on potential future changes with high spatial resolution acquire significant importance for the development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for the region. In this context, regional climate models (RCMs) play a fundamental role. In this paper, the results of a set of sensitivity experiments with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM version 5.0, for the Central Asia CORDEX domain, are presented. Starting from a reference model setup, general model performance is evaluated for the present day, testing the effects of singular changes in the model physical configuration and their mutual interaction with the simulation of monthly and seasonal values of three variables that are important for impact studies: near-surface temperature, precipitation and diurnal temperature range. The final goal of this study is two-fold: having a general overview of model performance and its uncertainties for the considered region and determining at the same time an optimal model configuration. Results show that the model presents remarkable deficiencies over different areas of the domain. The combined change of the albedo, taking into consideration the ratio of forest fractions, and the soil conductivity, taking into account the ratio of liquid water and ice in the soil, allows one to achieve the best improvements in model performance in terms of climatological means. Importantly, the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features, and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation. The analyses also show that improvements in model performance are not achievable for all domain subregions and variables, and they are the result of a compensation effect in the different cases. The proposed better performing configuration in terms of mean climate leads to similar positive improvements when considering different observational data sets and boundary data employed to force the simulations. On the other hand, due to the large uncertainties in the variability estimates from observations, the use of different boundaries and the model internal variability, it has not been possible to rank the different simulations according to their representation of the monthly variability. This work is the first ever sensitivity study of an RCM for the CORDEX Central Asia domain and its results are of fundamental importance for further model development and for future climate projections over the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concern for the issues related to the growing needs of human civilization like resource depletion, pollution, climate changes, and health risk has led to a search for eco-friendly alternatives to environmental problems. Recently, hemp started gaining popularity for its medicinal, nontoxic, greenhouse negative, and biodegradable properties. Originating from the steppes of Central Asia, Cannabis sativa L. (hemp) is one of the oldest domesticated plants known to humans. Since 5000-4000 BC, different parts of the plant were used for spinning, weaving, papermaking, the seed for human feed, animal feeds, medicinal, and health purposes. Reports also suggest the use of hemp as an organic additive in the historic earthen plasters of Ellora Caves, India (6th Century). Due to its psychoactive and recreational properties, this environmentally friendly plant lost its importance eventually in the 19th century and its cultivation was made illegal. People, in general, changed their outlook towards the plant and considered it a sign of moral indignation. Recently, food, pharmaceutical, textile, paper, building, energy, and other industries found hemp to be a promising solution for synthetic-based economies. Since then, the cultivation of hemp has been reintroduced, legalized in some countries, and now in recent times, there has been a good reimplementation of the plant in creating a green economy. This review will highlight the application of hemp and display its outstanding qualities in minimizing environmental and health issues. Based on the knowledge gained from various scientific resources; the commercial, industrial, and agricultural potential of the plant will be unveiled to give more push towards the hemp cultivation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As reported in previous studies, global warming has caused a clear uptick in dryland areas since the 1950s. Meanwhile, the accelerated expansion of drylands has become particularly evident over the past 40 years, with dry/wet patterns showing significant differences prior to and after 1980. This paper uses the Precipitation/Potential evaporation (P/PET) index to analyze changes occurring in the dry/wet structure of various spatial and temporal scales during 1948–2008. The results show the emergence of complex aridity changes on a regional scale. While aridity generally decreased in the drylands of Asia during 1948–2008, the change in aridity was opposite in the drylands of the American and African continents between 1948 and 1979 and 1980–2008. Specifically, drylands in the American continent showed a wetting tendency during 1948–1979 and a drying tendency during 1980–2008, whereas drylands in the African continent underwent significant drying during 1948–1979 followed by subtle wetting in 1980–2008. Even though rapid warming since the 1980s has become an increasingly important cause of the recent global drying trend, especially in East and Central Asia, the changes in aridity in the American and African drylands is attributable to natural variabilities in precipitation associated with multi-decadal surface sea temperature changes, along with large-scale circulation patterns. • Dry/wet patterns in dryland areas show significant differences in the decades prior to and after 1980. • The change in aridity was opposite in American and African drylands between 1948–1979 and 1980–2008. • Aridity changes in American and African drylands are closely related to multi-decadal changes in surface sea temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its extension, geography and the presence of several under-developed or developing economies, the Central Asia domain of the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is one of the most vulnerable regions on Earth to the effects of climate changes. Reliable information on potential future changes with high spatial resolution acquire significant importance for the development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for the region. In this context, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) play a fundamental role. In this paper, the results of a set of sensitivity experiments with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM version 5.0, for the Central Asia CORDEX domain, are presented. Starting from a reference model setup, general model performance is evaluated for present-days, testing the effects of a set of singular physical parameterizations and their mutual interaction on the simulation of monthly and seasonal values of three variables that are important for impact studies: 2-meter temperature, precipitation and diurnal temperature range. The final goal of this study is two-fold: having a general overview of model performance and its uncertainties for the considered region and determining at the same time an optimal model configuration. Results show that the model presents remarkable deficiencies over different areas of the domain. The combined change of the albedo taking into consideration the ratio of forest fractions and the soil conductivity taking into account the ratio of liquid water and ice in the soil, allows to achieve the best improvements in model performance in terms of climatological means. Importantly, the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features, and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation. The results for the mean climate appear to be independent of the observational dataset used for evaluation and of the boundary data employed to force the simulations. On the other hand, due to the large uncertainties in the variability estimates from observations, the use of different boundaries and the model internal variability, it has not been possible to rank the different simulations according to their representation of the monthly variability. This work is the first ever sensitivity study of an RCM for the CORDEX Central Asia domain and its results are of fundamental importance for further model development and for future climate projections over the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A spate of archaeological, historical and scientific publications have recently argued that the dust veil from a volcanic eruption (or series of eruptions) caused climatic change, which 'forced' significant historical transformations in the middle of the sixth century AD. In this paper, I situate this phenomenon within a more general return to environmental determinism in archaeological explanation, a return which itself needs to be understood in the context both of contemporary fears about the devastation to be unleashed by the climatic change we have made, and of the rise of precise measurement in environmental and archaeological science. I do not doubt the reality of the climatic change reconstructed for AD536/546 but, given the coarseness of the dating of the historical transformations, I do question the causal connections drawn between the former and the latter. I suggest that for many archaeologists, the AD536 event (and similar phenomena) functions much as written texts once did – as both the framework for analysis and as the explanation of historical process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to explore the normativeness of the EU by judging its capacity of creating desirable outcomes through its foreign-policy implementation process. From the 1990s on, the EU has become more visible in global politics as a unique, non-traditional actor using its norms and values as a deliberative force. Nevertheless, its conflict-management patterns, conduct of foreign affairs beyond its neighbourhood, participation in the sustainable-development efforts, fight against the climate change, and attitude towards the global financial crisis have all displayed that the EU is, in fact, not at ease in creating desirable outcomes subsequent to its foreign-policy actions. The failure of the Annan Plan in Cyprus is one of the quintessential examples of the EU's consequence-challenged foreign politics. This paper intends to probe the Cyprus question from the perspective of the EU's normative leadership. Georgia, Central Asia, the Doha Round, climate change, and the global financial crisis are among the topics that will be enquired into here in a similar light. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tajikistan (TJ) loess has great significance for the study of Quaternary climate changes and dust source in Central Asia. In this paper, we investigate the geochemical composition and provenance of loess. Our results show that the major elements, in order from high to low average content, are SiO 2 > Al 2 O 3 > CaO > Fe 2 O 3 > MgO > K 2 O > Na 2 O > TiO 2 > P 2 O 5 > MnO. Fe, Ti, P and Mn contents in loess are similar to those in the UCC, as is the case with Si, Al and Mg contents in paleosols. Ca is distinctly enriched in loess, and Si, Al and K are depleted. Na is depleted in both loess and paleosols, and P is depleted only in paleosols. In contrast to the UCC, paleosols show enrichments in all trace elements except for Ba, Sr and Zr, but in loess, some trace elements (e.g., Ba, Co, Ni and Zr) show depletion. The CIA value of TJ loess is lower than that of Kashmir loess, the latter being influenced by differences in the sorting and tectonic environment. There are no great changes about provenance during the formation of TJ loess, and the deposit areas have a shorter distance to the provenance. Geochemical data and atmospheric circulations demonstrate that the TJ loess was mainly transported by the near-surface northerly or northwesterly winds, but there may be an additional and local source making a certain contribution to the formation of loess deposits in the south of Tianshan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Loess deposits in Central Asia provide an important record of regional climate and environmental change. However, in contrast to the intensively investigated loess deposits on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), loess sediments in the Ili Basin of eastern Central Asia are poorly understood. Based on field investigation and existing literature, this paper presents a preliminary study of the distribution, strata and composition of the Ili loess. The distribution of the Ili loess is clearly controlled by topographic and geomorphic conditions, mainly in the river terraces, low uplands, and slopes of the Tianshan Mountains. The thickness of the loess varies from several meters to over two hundred meters. To characterize the Ili loess composition, the authors analyzed its grain size, geochemistry, X-ray diffraction pattern and heavy mineral assemblage. Grain size analyses reveal that the Ili loess consists predominantly of silt (4–63 μm) with a minor proportion of sand, which is coarser than the loess of the CLP and suggests a nearby provenance. The bulk mineral components of the Ili loess are dominated by quartz and feldspar with minor amounts of calcite, chlorite, mica, dolomite and hornblende. More than 20 types of heavy minerals were observed with major components of amphibole, magnetite and epidote. The major elements of the Ili loess are characterized by high abundance of SiO2, Al2O3 and CaO and minor amounts of Fe2O3, MgO, Na2O and K2O. Compared to the CLP loess, the Ili loess is relatively rich in Na2O and displays higher Na2O/Al2O3 ratios, suggesting weak weathering. The distribution patterns of REEs indicate that both the Ili loess and CLP loess are of typical upper crustal composition, with enrichment in LREE, negative Eu anomalies, and depletion of HREE. Both the heavy mineral assemblage and geochemistry indicate that the local bedrock of the Ili Basin may have contributed only a little to the loess sediments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Due to climate changes, most of the alpine glaciers have retreated dramatically during the past decades. Thus it is significant to predict the alpine glacier variability in the future for a better understanding of the impact of climate changes on water resource. In this paper, we perform the numerical simulation on Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia (hereafter Glacier No.1 for short) by considering both the mass balance and ice flow. Given the shape of the Glacier No.1, the velocity of the glacier is obtained by solving a two-dimensional nonlinear Stokes equation and simulated result is in agreement with the observation. In order to predict the variability of Glacier No.1 in the next decades, a climatic scenario is constructed with a temperature rise rate as 0.17°C/10 a and precipitation as constant during the period of 2005-2070. The simulation shows that, the glacier terminus will retreat slowly and the glacier will thin dramatically before 2040, while after year 2040, the glacier terminus retreat will accelerate. This study confirms the increasing retreat rate of alpine glaciers under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tarvagatai Nuruu National Park, situated in the northern Khangai Mountains in central Mongolia, is dominated by a forest-steppe ecosystem. An extreme continental and semi-arid climate is characteristic for forest-steppe ecosystems in Central Asia and their vegetation is very sensitive to climatic changes and human impacts by pastoralism and tree-logging. In the selected study area, nowadays human impact is exceptionally low, and it has potentially also been in the past. The focus of this paper was to reconstruct vegetation variability, climate dynamics, intensity of human impact and fire dynamics by applying a broad multi-proxy approach on a lacustrine sediment core from a small closed lake in the study area. The analyses include reconstructions of pollen, spores, non-pollen palynomorphs, and charcoal distribution as well as XRF-scanning. Overall, the radiocarbon-dated lacustrine sediment core reveals stable, long-term environmental conditions since the early Holocene (9570 cal yr BP). Palynological results indicate that vegetation varies on a comparably low level. We assume that nomadic pastoralism played a tangential role on the vegetation changes in the study area. Higher values of coprophilous fungi between 9570 and 8350 cal yr BP suggest the highest wildlife activity during the early Holocene. Hence, our multi-proxy data reveal a surprisingly stable vegetation composition and only slight climatic changes in north-central Mongolia for the entire Holocene. An initial moist and warm period from 9570 to 4180 cal yr BP was followed by a period of slightly drier and potentially cooler conditions from 4180 until 430 cal yr BP. The latest period from 430 cal yr BP to present was moist and warm. Fires were in general relatively rare except from a strong phase of fire activity between 3550 and 2960 cal yr BP. • A new multi-proxy record (pollen, NPPs, macro charcoal, XRF-data) from north-central Mongolia. • Detailed high-resolution Holocene palaeoecological record covering the last 9600 cal yr BP. • Reconstructed stable vegetation reflects limited human impact on the vegetation dynamics since the Early Holocene. • Values of coprophilous fungal spores during the early Holocene provide a baseline of wildlife activities. • Extensive fire episode from 3550 to 2960 cal yr BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• climate change will trigger a strong increase in temperature in Central Asia. • discharge is expected to increase in early spring and decrease in summer. • projected changes may put spring crops under stress while winter cereals may benefit. • adjusting of planting and irrigation calendar may help in adapting to future changes. Understanding of future climate change impacts and successful planning of adaptation measures are of vital importance for Central Asia given the region's economic vulnerability, dependence on scarce water resources, and observed above global average warming rates. This paper analyses how impacts of climate change on the hydrological regimes and temperature patterns could affect the irrigated agricultural production in two case study areas, the Aspara and Isfara river basins. The methodology applied is based on analysis of temperature indicators and current cropping calendars in target locations combined with hydrological simulations by the process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) of the two river basins. The selected climate change projections comprise the moderate and high emissions scenarios - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results reveal that climate change will create unfavourable conditions for irrigated spring crops, due to decrease of discharge during the vegetation period. On the other hand, the projected shift of peak discharge to an earlier date offers benefits for irrigated winter cereals, providing more water for irrigation in spring. Results suggest that, there is an opportunity to adapt the irrigated agricultural production in the selected regions by fitting the cropping calendars to changing vegetation periods and to the timing of peak discharges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The area of the Aral Sea shrank by 60,156.50 km2 (about 87.85%). • The total loss of water volume was approximately 1,000.51 km3. • Glacier mass loss in the basin was much larger than lake volume variation. • Human activities especially damming and irrigation are the driving factors. The Aral Sea (68,478 km2 in 1960) was the world's fourth largest inland lake in 1960s. However, it shrank sharply over the past six decades, and its changes caused a series of severe environmental issues. In this paper, we reconstructed its variations over the period of 1960 to 2018 by using observation data and remote sensing data, and analyzed their influencing factors. The results show that the area of the Aral Sea shrank dramatically by 60,156.50 km2 (about 87.85%) and the total loss of water volume was approximately 1,000.51 km3 over the study period. In 1986, the Aral Sea broken up into the south and the north parts. Since then, the South Aral Sea has shrunk continuously, while both the area and the water volume of the North Aral Sea have had a little change and shown a very slightly increasing trend. Through comprehensive analysis, it was found that human activities, especially damming and irrigation, are the dominant factors influencing the long-term variation of the Aral Sea. The increased precipitation and glacier meltwater could not compensate for the water loss of the Aral Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Increased precipitation and temperature are expected under 1.5/2.0 °C warming in Central Asia. • ETc is projected to increase in Central Asia under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. • Water gap (precipitation-CWR) will widen for rainfed north Kazakhstan and irrigated Fergana. In the arid region of Central Asia, climate change leads not only to changes in water availability generated by glacier/snow melt in the alpine regions, but also to changes in water consumption. This paper evaluates agricultural water demand and water supply (represented by precipitation) for the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) under global warming conditions of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. As Central Asia is more sensitive to climate change compared to the global average, the temperature is predicted to rise by 1.7 °C and 2.6 °C and precipitation to increase by 9 % and 12 % in global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, respectively. The average crop water requirement (CWR) is expected to increase by 13 mm and 19 mm per year, respectively, under the global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. A widening gap between water supply and water demand is expected compared to the historical period (1976–2005) under global warming scenario of 2.0 °C. Under global warming of 2.0 °C, the anticipated water gaps between precipitation and CWR are projected to increase by 2.8 × 108 m3 and 1.5 × 108 m3 for the rainfed north Kazakhstan region and the irrigated Fergana region while the increase of precipitation could able to meet the increase in CWR under global warming of 1.5 °C. Investigating the water balance for major planting areas in water-limited Central Asia could provide a scientific basis for sustainable development of the entire region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate instability (millennial-scale rapid climatic oscillations) during the last glacial period has been a hot issue in Quaternary paleoclimate cycle, however, the driving mechanism and involved areas are still unclear. Previous reports mainly came from Green ice cores, North Atlantic deep-sea sediments and loess, stalagmites, lake records in the East Asian monsoon area, however, evidences from the Asian interior arid regions are scarce. Central Asia is distant from oceanic moisture sources and the climate is dominated by the Westerlies and the Subtropical High. Late Pleistocene loess sediments sporadically distributed at the pediments, terraces and basins provide us an opportunity to verify the existence of millennial-scale climatic fluctuations in Central Asia and understand the relations between high-low latitude climate. During the last decades, we have carried lots of loess investigations in Central Asian mainly around the Tienshan Mountains including Xinjiang in China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In this paper, we report the preliminary results of loess investigations, and divide the loess distribution in Central Asia into three zones, which correspond to different hydrothermal combination conditions; and coupled with previous literatures, we review the progress of paleoclimate study of loess especially chronology in Central Asia, analyze problems of the last glacial climate events in Central Asia, and discusses its process and mechanism. Up to now, paleoclimatic proxies like grain size, mineralogy and geochemistry confirmed that that there are indeed millennial-scale rapid oscillations during the last glacial period in Central Asia, but they are inconsistent in age and variability. These rapid changes may be related to the following aspects: (a) contraction and expansion of the ice sheet in the high latitudes region of North Atlantic, (b) changes in the intensity and extent of the Siberian high pressure which further lead to the variance in wind dynamics, (c) and the north-south migration of the mid-latitude westerlies. The solar radiation is not the main driving factor for the rapid changes in Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]