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Objectives: The prevalence of hepatitis is high in emergency department (ED) attendees in the United Kingdom, with a prevalence of up to 2% for hepatitis B (HBV) HBsAg, and 2.9% for hepatitis C (HCV) RNA. The aim of this paper is to perform an economic evaluation of opt-out ED-based HCV and HBV testing.Methods: A Markov model was developed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of opt-out HCV and HBV testing in EDs in the UK. The model used data from UK studies of ED testing to parameterize the HCV and HBV prevalence (1.4% HCV RNA, 0.84% HBsAg), test costs, and intervention effects (contact rates and linkage to care). For HCV, we used an antibody test cost of £3.64 and RNA test cost of £68.38, and assumed direct-acting antiviral treatment costs of £10 000. For HBV, we used a combined HBsAg and confirmatory test cost of £5.79. We also modeled the minimum prevalence of HCV (RNA-positive) and HBV (HBsAg) required to make ED testing cost-effective at a £20 000 willingness to pay per quality-adjusted life-year threshold.Results: In the base case, ED testing was highly cost-effective, with HCV and HBV testing costing £8019 and £9858 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. HCV and HBV ED testing remained cost-effective at 0.25% HCV RNA or HBsAg prevalence or higher.Conclusions: Emergency department testing for HCV and HBV is highly likely to be cost-effective in many areas across the UK depending on their prevalence. Ongoing studies will help evaluate ED testing across different regions to inform testing guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel agent-based, stochastic model, which uses game-theoretic principles to simulate Contract for Difference (CfD) auctions. The framework has use cases and implications for policymakers and renewable generators alike, and can be used by developers to prepare bidding strategy and for policymakers to empirically test auction design. The model is demonstrated through replication of the offshore wind CfD Allocation Round 3 (AR3) pot, and utilises high-level cost modelling distribution data to estimate bid prices for the competing projects. The model produces a distribution of most likely results which better categorises uncertainty, and through comparison of AR3 and simulation results, demonstrates how outcomes can be predicted with reasonable confidence by developers. Analysis show that the transmission network and grid connection charges are a significant barrier for projects in some geographical regions to be awarded a CfD contract, potentially hindering renewable deployment in those areas. Moreover, this paper demonstrates how players can use probability theory to select an optimum bidding strategy which maximises expected profit while factoring the uncertainty inherent in CfD auctions. Results show that a 1200 MW wind farm development can increase potential profits by £135 million over the CfD contract length in exchange for a 25 p.p. chance reduction in being awarded a subsidy. • A novel simulation approach is introduced for analysing the UK's CfD auction • We show how players can attempt to optimise their bid based on expected profits • We demonstrate how uncertainty in auctions can be characterised by developers • Transmission charges act as a barrier for offshore wind projects in some regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Within the European Union (EU), substantial efforts are being made to achieve economic and social cohesion, and the reduction of health inequalities between EU regions is integral to this process. This paper is the first to examine how self-reported conditions and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) vary spatially between and within countries. Methods: Using 2014 European Social Survey (ESS) data from 20 countries, this paper examines how regional inequalities in self-reported conditions and NCDs vary for men and women in 174 regions (levels 1 and 2 Nomenclature of Statistical Territorial Units, 'NUTS'). We document absolute and relative inequalities across Europe in the prevalence of eight conditions: general health, overweight/obesity, mental health, heart or circulation problems, high blood pressure, back, neck, muscular or joint pain, diabetes and cancer. Results: There is considerable inequality in self-reported conditions and NCDs between the regions of Europe, with rates highest in the regions of continental Europe, some Scandinavian regions and parts of the UK and lowest around regions bordering the Alps, in Ireland and France. However, for mental health and cancer, rates are highest in regions of Eastern European and lowest in some Nordic regions, Ireland and isolated regions in continental Europe. There are also widespread and consistent absolute and relative regional inequalities in all conditions within countries. These are largest in France, Germany and the UK, and smallest in Denmark, Sweden and Norway. There were higher inequalities amongst women. Conclusion: Using newly available harmonized morbidity data from across Europe, this paper shows that there are considerable regional inequalities within and between European countries in the distribution of self-reported conditions and NCDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Centile curves and standard scores are common in epidemiological research. However, standardised norms and centile growth curves for language disorder that reflect the entire UK local school population do not exist. Methods: Scores on six language indices assessing receptive and expressive functioning of children were obtained from the SCALES population survey. Monolingual English speaking participants were aged between five and nine years. Children who attended special schools at study intake, or who were learning English as an additional language were excluded. We constructed language norms using the LMS method of standardisation which allows for skewed measurements. We made use of probability weights that were produced from a two-step logistic model. Distributions of estimated standard scores from an intensively assessed sub-population and from the full population were contrasted to demonstrate the role of weights. Results: Non-overlapping centile curves and standardised scores at each age were obtained for the six language indices. The use of weights was essential at retrieving the target distribution of the scores. An online calculator that estimates standardised scores for the measures was constructed and made freely available. Conclusions: The findings highlight the usefulness and flexibility of the LMS method at dealing with the standardisation of linguistic and educational measures that are sufficiently continuous. The paper adds to the existing literature by providing population norms for a number of language tests that were calculated from the same group of individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: exposure to air pollution has been shown to increase risk of inflammatory processes and risk of cardiovascular mortality. Such exposure may therefore also be a risk factor for cognitive impairment/dementia. Method: a systematic review of the literature was conducted with databases searched using keywords for air pollution, cognitive decline and dementia. All identified abstracts and potentially relevant articles were double read. For those papers meeting the inclusion criteria, summary tables were prepared and papers quality assessed. Results: from 1,551 abstracts identified, 10 articles were retrieved of which two were rejected. Of the eight remaining six reported prevalent cognitive assessment with historical pollution exposure and two incident cognitive decline, also with historical pollution exposure. In general, an association was reported between exposure and poorer prevalent measures of cognitive function. Data were mixed for incident cognitive decline with one study finding an association and the other not. Reports were limited by a lack of detailed reporting, use of proxy measures of pollution exposure and a lack of clarity regarding cognitive testing methodology and analysis. Conclusion: this systematic review highlights that there is some evidence of a potential association between air pollution and subsequent cognitive decline. Further work is clearly required and longitudinal analysis of ongoing cohort studies or new research would add much needed clarity to this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Longitudinal data sources offer new opportunities for the evaluation of sequential interventions. To adjust for time-dependent confounding in these settings, longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood based estimation (TMLE), a doubly robust method that can be coupled with machine learning, has been proposed. This paper provides a tutorial in applying longitudinal TMLE, in contrast to inverse probability of treatment weighting and g-computation based on iterative conditional expectations. We apply these methods to estimate the causal effect of nutritional interventions on clinical outcomes among critically ill children in a United Kingdom study (Control of Hyperglycemia in Paediatric Intensive Care, 2008-2011). We estimate the probability of a child's being discharged alive from the pediatric intensive care unit by a given day, under a range of static and dynamic feeding regimes. We find that before adjustment, patients who follow the static regime "never feed" are discharged by the end of the fifth day with a probability of 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.87, 0.90), while for the patients who follow the regime "feed from day 3," the probability of discharge is 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.66). After adjustment for time-dependent confounding, most of this difference disappears, and the statistical methods produce similar results. TMLE offers a flexible estimation approach; hence, we provide practical guidance on implementation to encourage its wider use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chain event graphs (CEGs) are a graphical representation of a statistical model derived from event trees. They have previously been applied to cohort studies but not to case-control studies. In this paper, we apply the CEG framework to a Yorkshire, United Kingdom, case-control study of childhood type 1 diabetes (1993-1994) in order to examine 4 exposure variables associated with the mother, 3 of which are fully observed (her school-leaving-age, amniocenteses during pregnancy, and delivery type) and 1 with missing values (her rhesus factor), while incorporating previous type 1 diabetes knowledge. We conclude that the unknown rhesus factor values were likely to be missing not at random and were mainly rhesus-positive. The mother's school-leaving-age and rhesus factor were not associated with the diabetes status of the child, whereas having at least 1 amniocentesis procedure and, to a lesser extent, birth by cesarean delivery were associated; the combination of both procedures further increased the probability of diabetes. This application of CEGs to case-control data allows for the inclusion of missing data and prior knowledge, while investigating associations in the data. Communication of the analysis with the clinical expert is more straightforward than with traditional modeling, and this approach can be applied retrospectively or when assumptions for traditional analyses are not held. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shared Lives (adult placement) is a model of community-based support where an adult who needs support and/or accommodation moves into or regularly visits the home of an approved Shared Lives carer, after they have been matched for compatibility. It is an established but small service which has been used mainly by people with learning disabilities but which has the potential to offer an alternative to traditional services for some older people. However, there is little research on the outcomes for older users of Shared Lives. This paper presents findings from a survey of 150 older people using Shared Lives support across 10 Shared Lives schemes in England, which took place between June 2013 and January 2014. The aim was to identify outcomes for older users of Shared Lives and compare these to outcomes for older users of other social care services. In the absence of an ideal study design involving randomised allocation, statistical matching was used to generate a comparison group from the Adult Social Care Survey from 2011/12, with 121 cases matched to 121 Shared Lives cases. The main outcome measures were Social Care-Related Quality of Life (measured by the ASCOT) and overall quality of life. Findings indicated that Shared Lives can deliver good outcomes for older people, particularly for overall quality of life. In comparison to the matched group of older people using other forms of support, there was some evidence that Shared Lives may deliver better outcomes in some aspects of quality of life. Limitations to the research mean, however, that more work is needed to fully understand the role Shared Lives could play in supporting older people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective The main aim of this study was to explore any association between colorectal cancer (CRC) and rotating shift work in nurses and midwives. The secondary aim of this study was to identify risk factors for CRC in nurses and midwives who are rotating shift workers. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Electronic survey of participants from Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Subjects A sample of 8,199 male and female nurses and midwives from Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom invited through their registration papers or newsletter advertisement. Main outcome measure Prevalence of CRC in participants who have worked rotating shifts for 1-14 years or ≥15 years compared to participants who have never worked rotating shifts. In addition, risk factors for CRC in the rotating shift work population were analysed in a multivariate logistic regression model in order to obtain odds ratio of CRC. Results No statistically significant difference was found in the prevalence of CRC between those who have never worked rotating shift work, worked 1-14 years and worked 15 or more years. Among rotating shift workers, diabetes was associated with a 123-fold (95% CI 39-392; p<0.001) increased odds of CRC, while Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) was associated with a 190-fold (95%CI 68-526; p<0.001) increased odds of CRC. Screening colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy for CRC was associated with a 10-fold (95% CI 3-35; p<0.001) increased odds of being diagnosed with CRC. Conclusion No significant association was found between rotating shift work and colorectal cancer in nurses and midwives. In nurses and midwives who are rotating shift workers, diabetes, IBD and CRC screening significantly increased the odds of CRC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: the care of older people with dementia is often complicated by physical comorbidity and polypharmacy, but the extent and patterns of these have not been well described. This paper reports analysis of these factors within a large, cross-sectional primary care data set. Methods: data were extracted for 291,169 people aged 65 years or older registered with 314 general practices in the UK, of whom 10,258 had an electronically recorded dementia diagnosis. Differences in the number and type of 32 physical conditions and the number of repeat prescriptions in those with and without dementia were examined. Age-gender standardised rates were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) of physical comorbidity and polypharmacy. Results: people with dementia, after controlling for age and sex, had on average more physical conditions than controls (mean number of conditions 2.9 versus 2.4; P < 0.001) and were on more repeat medication (mean number of repeats 5.4 versus 4.2; P < 0.001). Those with dementia were more likely to have 5 or more physical conditions (age-sex standardised OR [sOR] 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35-1.50; P < 0.001) and were also more likely to be on 5 or more (sOR 1.46; 95% CI 1.40-1.52; P < 0.001) or 10 or more repeat prescriptions (sOR 2.01; 95% CI 1.90-2.12; P < 0.001). Conclusions: people with dementia have a higher burden of comorbid physical disease and polypharmacy than those without dementia, even after accounting for age and sex differences. Such complex needs require an integrated response from general health professionals and multidisciplinary dementia specialists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Eating self-regulatory capacity can help individuals to cope with the obesogenic environment and achieve, as well as maintain, a healthy weight and diet. At present, there is no comprehensive, reliable and valid questionnaire for assessing this capacity and measuring change in response to self-regulation interventions in adults. This paper reports the development of the Self-regulation of Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (SREBQ) for use in UK adults, and presents evidence for its reliability and construct validity. The development of the SREBQ involved generation of an item pool, followed by two pilot studies (Samples 1 and 2) and a test of the questionnaire's underlying factor structure (Sample 3). The final version of the SREBQ was then assessed for reliability and construct validity (Sample 4). Results: Development of the SREBQ resulted in a 5-item questionnaire. The face validity was satisfactory, as assessed by the pilot studies. The factor structure analysis (Sample 3) suggested that it has a single underlying factor, which was confirmed in a second sample (Sample 4). The SREBQ had strong construct validity, showing a positive correlation with general measures of self-regulation. It was also positively correlated with motivation and behavioural automaticity, and negatively correlated with food responsiveness and emotional over-eating (p < 0.001). It showed good discriminant validity, as it was only weakly associated with satiety responsiveness, food fussiness and slowness in eating. Conclusions: The SREBQ is a reliable and valid measure for assessment of eating self-regulatory capacity in the general UK adult population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a critical discussion of the historical and theoretical meaningfulness of the distinction between ‘objective’ and ‘subjective’ probability, as it supposedly emerged around 1840, by examining whether and how it appeared in the work of the mid-nineteenth-century British revisionist probabilists. A detailed analysis of the contributions of Augustus De Morgan, John Stuart Mill, George Boole, Robert Leslie Ellis and John Venn to probability is put forward in order to show that in so far as the terms did not appear as contradictories it is not possible to understand or compare these contributions with reference to the modern binary of ‘objective’ and ‘subjective’. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]