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India has the highest burden of Tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) worldwide. Innovative technology is the need of the hour to identify these cases that remain either undiagnosed or inadequately diagnosed due to the unavailability of appropriate tools at primary healthcare settings. We developed and evaluated 3 kits, namely ‘TB Detect’ (containing BioFM-Filter device), ‘TB Concentration and Transport’ (containing Trans-Filter device) and ‘TB DNA Extraction’ kits. These kits enable bio-safe equipment-free concentration of sputum on filters and improved fluorescence microscopy at primary healthcare centres, ambient temperature transport of dried inactivated sputum filters to central laboratories and molecular detection of drug resistance by PCR and DNA sequencing (Mol-DST). In a 2-site evaluation (n = 1190 sputum specimens) on presumptive TB patients, BioFM-Filter smear exhibited a significant increase in positivity of 7% and 4% over ZN smear and LED-FM smear (p<0.05), respectively and an increment in smear grade status (1+ or 2+ to 3+) of 16% over ZN smear and 20% over LED-FM smear. The sensitivity of Mol-DST in presumptive MDR-TB and XDR-TB cases (n = 148) was 90% for Rifampicin (95% confidence interval [CI], 78–96%), 84% for Isoniazid (95% CI, 72–92%), 83% for Fluoroquinolones (95% CI, 66–93%) and 75% for Aminoglycosides (95% CI, 35–97%), using phenotypic DST as the reference standard. Test specificity was 88–93% and concordance was ~89–92% (κ value 0.8–0.9). The patient-friendly kits described here address several of the existing challenges and are designed to provide ‘Universal Access’ to rapid TB diagnosis, including drug-resistant disease. Their utility was demonstrated by application to sputum at 2 sites in India. Our findings pave the way for larger studies in different point-of-care settings, including high-density urban areas and remote geographical locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The gut microbial community structure of adult Thrips tabaci collected from 10 different agro-climatically diverse locations of India was characterized by using the Illumina MiSeq platform to amplify the V3 region of the 16S rRNA gene of bacteria present in the sampled insects. Analyses were performed to study the bacterial communities associated with Thrips tabaci in India. The complete bacterial metagenome of T. tabaci was comprised of 1662 OTUs of which 62.25% belong to known and 37.7% of unidentified/unknown bacteria. These OTUs constituted 21 bacterial phyla of 276 identified genera. Phylum Proteobacteria was predominant, followed by Actinobacteria, Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes and Cyanobacteria. Additionally, the occurrence of the reproductive endosymbiont, Wolbachia was detected at two locations (0.56%) of the total known OTUs. There is high variation in diversity and species richness among the different locations. Alpha-diversity metrics indicated the higher gut bacterial diversity at Bangalore and lowest at Rahuri whereas higher bacterial species richness at T. tabaci samples from Imphal and lowest at Jhalawar. Beta diversity analyses comparing bacterial communities between the samples showed distinct differences in bacterial community composition of T. tabaci samples from different locations. This paper also constitutes the first record of detailed bacterial communities associated with T. tabaci. The location-wise variation in microbial metagenome profile of T. tabaci suggests that bacterial diversity might be governed by its population genetic structure, environment and habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A new contraceptive microarray patch (MAP) for women is in development. Input on this method from potential end-users early in the product development process is important to guide design decisions. This paper presents the qualitative component of a broader study exploring initial acceptability of the MAP and selected product features. The qualitative research was intended to identify product features that are most salient to end-users and to contextualize preferences around them with subsequent research planned to assess quantitatively the relative importance of those features. Methods: We conducted 16 focus group discussions and 20 in-depth interviews with women and 20 IDIs with family planning providers in New Delhi, India, and Ibadan, Nigeria. Input from the MAP developer served to identify plausible features of the MAP to include in the focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed into English, coded, and analyzed to examine key dimensions of MAP features. Results: Many participants viewed the MAP as potentially easy to use. Interest in self-application after learning correct use was high, especially in India. Participants favored formulations affording protection from pregnancy for three or six months, if not longer. Interest in a shorter-acting MAP was particularly low in Nigeria. Non-desirable MAP features included a potential localized skin rash and pain at application. Views on patch size and location of application were related to the potential for rash and pain, with a desire to permit discreet use and minimize pain. Results indicate that the side effect profile, effectiveness, and pricing are also important factors for acceptability and uptake of a future product. Conclusion: Study findings indicate that a contraceptive MAP is of potential interest to women and that specific MAP attributes will be important to acceptability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infections outnumber clinical presentations, however the predictors for development of active disease are not well known. We aimed to identify serological, immunological and genetic markers for progression from L. donovani infection to clinical Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). Methods: We enrolled all residents >2 years of age in 27 VL endemic villages in Bihar (India). Blood samples collected on filter paper on two occasions 6–12 months apart, were tested for antibodies against L. donovani with rK39-ELISA and DAT. Sero converters, (negative for both tests in the first round but positive on either of the two during the second round) and controls (negative on both tests on both occasions) were followed for three years. At the start of follow-up venous blood was collected for the following tests: DAT, rK39- ELISA, Quantiferon assay, SNP/HLA genotyping and L.donovani specific quantitative PCR. Results: Among 1,606 subjects enrolled,17 (8/476 seroconverters and 9/1,130 controls) developed VL (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1–8.3). High DAT and rK39 ELISA antibody titers as well as positive qPCR were strongly and significantly associated with progression from seroconversion to VL with odds ratios of 19.1, 30.3 and 20.9 respectively. Most VL cases arose early (median 5 months) during follow-up. Conclusion: We confirmed the strong association between high DAT and/or rK39 titers and progression to disease among asymptomatic subjects and identified qPCR as an additional predictor. Low predictive values do not warrant prophylactic treatment but as most progressed to VL early during follow-up, careful oberservation of these subjects for at least 6 months is indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the social inclusiveness of agricultural extension services in India. We estimate the probability and frequency of farmers’ access to extension services and resulting changes in crop income across different caste groups. The literature suggests that caste-based social segregation manifests in various spheres of life, and perpetuates economic inequality and oppression. An econometric analysis of nationally-representative data from rural India verifies this with respect to the agricultural sector. Farmers belonging to the socially-marginalized castes are found to have a lower chance of accessing the public extension services, primarily due to their inferior resource-endowment status. Contacting extension agents at least once increased the average annual crop income by about 12 thousand Indian rupees per household, which is equivalent to 36% of the annual crop income of those without access to extension services. There exists significant impact heterogeneity. Farmers from the socially-marginalized castes hardly benefited from accessing the extension services. Based on these observations, we have developed a number of policy recommendations that could improve the social inclusiveness of agricultural development strategies in rural India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty affects many people, but the ramifications and impacts affect all aspects of society. Information about the incidence of poverty is therefore an important parameter of the population for policy analysis and decision making. In order to provide specific, targeted solutions when addressing poverty disadvantage small area statistics are needed. Surveys are typically designed and planned to produce reliable estimates of population characteristics of interest mainly at higher geographic area such as national and state level. Sample sizes are usually not large enough to provide reliable estimates for disaggregated analysis. In many instances estimates are required for areas of the population for which the survey providing the data was unplanned. Then, for areas with small sample sizes, direct survey estimation of population characteristics based only on the data available from the particular area tends to be unreliable. This paper describes an application of small area estimation (SAE) approach to improve the precision of estimates of poverty incidence at district level in the State of Bihar in India by linking data from the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey 2011–12 of NSSO and the Population Census 2011. The results show that the district level estimates generated by SAE method are more precise and representative. In contrast, the direct survey estimates based on survey data alone are less stable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Migrant labourers living in the slums of urban and industrial patches across India make up a key sub-population so far controlling Tuberculosis (TB) in the country is concerned. This is because many TB patients from these communities- remain under reached by the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP) of India. This marginalized community usually seeks early-stage healthcare from “friendly neighbourhood” non-formal health providers (NFHPs). Because, RNTCP has limited capacity to involve the NFHPs, an implementation research project was conceived, whereby an external partner would engage with the NFHPs to enable them to identify early TB symptomatics from this key sub-population who would be then tested using Xpert MTB/RIF technology. Diagnosed TB cases among them would be referred promptly to RNTCP for treatment. This paper aimed to describe the project and its impact. Methods: Adopting a quasi-experimental before-after design, four RNTCP units from two major urban-industrial areas of Odisha were selected for intervention, which spanned five quarters and covered 151,400 people, of which 30% were slum-dwelling migrants. Two similar units comprised the control population. The hypothesis was, reaching the under reached in the intervention area through NFHPs would increase TB notification from these traditionally under-notifying units. RNTCP notification data during intervention was compared with pre-intervention era, adjusted for contemporaneous changes in control population Results: The project detected 488 Xpert+ TB cases, of whom 466 were administered RNTCP treatment. This translated into notification of additional 198 new bacteriologically positive cases to RNTCP, a 30% notification surge, after adjustment for 2% decline in control. This meant an average quarterly increase in notification of 41.20(20.08, 62.31; p<0.001) cases. The increase was immediate, evident from the rise in level in the time series analysis by 50.42(10.28, 90.55; p = 0.02) cases. Conclusion: Engagement with NFHPs contributed to an increase in TB notification to RNTCP from key under reached, slum-dwelling migrant populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we model the bus networks of six major Indian cities as graphs in L-space, and evaluate their various statistical properties. While airline and railway networks have been extensively studied, a comprehensive study on the structure and growth of bus networks is lacking. In India, where bus transport plays an important role in day-to-day commutation, it is of significant interest to analyze its topological structure and answer basic questions on its evolution, growth, robustness and resiliency. Although the common feature of small-world property is observed, our analysis reveals a wide spectrum of network topologies arising due to significant variation in the degree-distribution patterns in the networks. We also observe that these networks although, robust and resilient to random attacks are particularly degree-sensitive. Unlike real-world networks, such as Internet, WWW and airline, that are virtual, bus networks are physically constrained. Our findings therefore, throw light on the evolution of such geographically and constrained networks that will help us in designing more efficient bus networks in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Out-of-pocket spending at out-patient departments (OPD) by households is relatively less analyzed compared to hospitalization expenses in India. This paper provides new evidence on the levels and drivers of expenditure on out-patient care, as well as choice of providers, using household survey data from 8 districts in 3 states of India. Results indicate that the economically vulnerable spend more on OPD as a proportion of per capita consumption expenditure, out-patient care remains overwhelmingly private and switches of providers—while not very prevalent—is mostly towards private providers. A key result is that choice of public providers tend to lower OPD spending significantly. It indicates that an improvement in the overall quality and accessibility of government facilities still remain an important tool that should be considered in the context of financial protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]