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Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031–2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031–2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Designing an integrated regional water environment modeling framework • Concurrent analysis of seasonal water and its driving forces across space and time • Differentiating how different blocks of driving factors interact with water scarcity • Driving factor impacts on water scarcity increase substantially over time • Local resource endowment and utilization critically impact spatial heterogeneity Increased grazing and agricultural production, industrialization, population growth, and consequent land use land cover (LULC) changes considerably increase water consumption. Global climate change exaggerates the uncertainty of water sources and supplies. Unfortunately, most current examinations are either confined within disciplinary silos or not integrated for considering wide-ranging socioenvironmental, management, and policy factors. The paper develops an integrated regional water environment modeling framework, examining how climate, LULC, socioenvironmental, and policy factors interact with the water environment. It also adopts a block-based econometric panel data analysis to quantify this framework. The paper extracts seasonal water area and LULC data through image processing from 2000 to 2014 in the Hulun-Buir watershed, Inner Mongolia of China. The paper quantitatively analyzed the interactions between seasonal water changes and major driving factors, such as climatic, land-use, socioeconomic, policy, space, and time. Many of these driving factors were interacting with the seasonal water environment and showing long-term causal relationships. The socioeconomic variables explained 71% of the variance of seasonal water change, the environmental and climatic factors about 9%, the regional disparities around 13%, and the yearly differences about 4%. The findings confirm that it is critical to carry out a time-series examination of causal relationships between seasonal water change and its manifold driving factors at the scale of regional watershed studies. This integrated watershed modeling framework is suitable for adaptation in other geographic areas or for integrated studies of other socio-environmental systems. Graphical Abstract [Display omitted]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]