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This paper attempts to show that convergence or divergence in the European Union (EU) will be influenced by developments in the periphery of Europe to a considerable extent, although the core situation cannot be ignored. In essence, therefore, it is the relationship between core and periphery that will determine the future of the EU. The main thesis of this study is that the EU economic position is such that divergence is more likely to occur than convergence. The focus of the analysis is what has come to be known as ‘Peripheral Fordism’, which enables us lo suggest that periphery prospects for economic development are predicated upon substantial expansion of their industrial sectors based on indigenous forces. It is therefore the existing institutional structure within the EU that poses obstacles to convergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]