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In order to assess the viability of wind energy projects in China, this paper takes a real options approach by accounting for flexibility over deployment of the technology in response to a stochastic non-renewable energy cost. The difference between the latter and the R&D-enhanced cost of renewable energy operation may be thought of as a benefit from using wind. On the other hand, the Chinese government provides feed-in tariffs to encourage further adoption of wind, which should be included as a cost. This work, thus, shows that there is substantial options value to China's wind energy program, which is bolstered if the cost of carbon dioxide emissions is internalized. Moreover, by varying the rate of feed-in tariffs, the model may be used to show plausible ranges for the feed-in tariffs, which could be a useful policy insight. Furthermore, the study hypothesizes that with the likelihood of renewable energy to replace non-renewable energy, wind power in China can potentially reduce CO 2 emissions by approximately 6.4% by 2020 comparing to the 2005 level and highlights the significant role of wind power in China's emission targets and energy security. This is a relevant paper, especially given the importance of a sustainable energy transition for China. More generally, using the real options approach from a policy perspective could provide insights about the viability of renewable energy programs and robustness of feed-in tariffs rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• China's Nationally Determined Contributions do not comply with the Paris Agreement. • Overall coal usage needs to decrease by 60% (2 °C) or even 100% (1.5 °C) by 2050. • 100% Renewable energies are cost-efficient to decarbonize the electricity sector. • Sector coupling increases the electricity demand by 100% (2 °C) to 400% (1.5 °C). • Incentives for local actors are needed for a sustainable low-carbon transformation. Growing prosperity among its population and an inherent increasing demand for energy complicate China's target of combating climate change, while maintaining its economic growth. This paper, therefore, describes three potential decarbonization pathways to analyze different effects for the electricity, transport, heating, and industrial sectors until 2050. Using an enhanced version of the multi-sectoral, open-source Global Energy System Model, enables us to assess the impact of different CO 2 budgets on the upcoming energy system transformation. A detailed provincial resolution allows for the implementation of regional characteristics and disparities within China. Conclusively, we complement the model-based analysis with a quantitative assessment of current barriers for the needed transformation. Results indicate that overall energy system CO 2 emissions and in particular coal usage have to be reduced drastically to meet (inter-) national climate targets. Specifically, coal consumption has to decrease by around 60% in 2050 compared to 2015. The current Nationally Determined Contributions proposed by the Chinese government of peaking emissions in 2030 are, therefore, not sufficient to comply with a global CO 2 budget in line with the Paris Agreement. Renewable energies, in particular photovoltaics and onshore wind, profit from decreasing costs and can provide a more sustainable and cheaper energy source. Furthermore, increased stakeholder interactions and incentives are needed to mitigate the resistance of local actors against a low-carbon transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass power is one of the most important renewable energy sources in China. In order to provide a reference for China's biomass power planning, this paper builds a power sector-planning model using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The results show that in the base scenario, the installed capacity of agricultural and forestry residues, municipal solid waste and biogas will increase to 22350 MW, 21150 MW, and 4900 MW, respectively by 2030. From the point of view of total volume, biomass supply is not a constraining factor for biomass power source. However, there are some social and economic factors that impede the development of the biomass power industry, some of which may not be addressed in the short term. Therefore, the development of the biomass power industry in China is a long-term process. Some policy suggestions were proposed, including reasonable planning and more subsidies for biomass supply value chain. • An optimal power-planning model focused on bio-energy in China was developed. • Agricultural and forestry power, waste power and biogas power were all analyzed. • Social and economic factors that impede biomass power were investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]