Search

In recent years, there has been a considerable interest to study count time series with a dependence structure and appearance of excess of zeros values. Such series are commonly encountered in diverse disciplines, such as economics, financial research, environmental science, public health, among others. In this paper, we propose a stationary p-order integer-valued autoregressive process with zero-inflated Poisson innovations, called the ZINAR(p) times series model. We study some of its theoretical properties and develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for inferring parameters from Bayesian perspectives. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of proposed ZINAR(p) model through simulated and real data examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Feature selection arises in many areas of modern science. For example, in genomic research, we want to find the genes that can be used to separate tissues of different classes (e.g. cancer and normal). One approach is to fit regression/classification models with certain penalization. In the past decade, hyper-LASSO penalization (priors) have received increasing attention in the literature. However, fully Bayesian methods that use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for regression/classification with hyper-LASSO priors are still in lack of development. In this paper, we introduce an MCMC method for learning multinomial logistic regression with hyper-LASSO priors. Our MCMC algorithm uses Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in a restricted Gibbs sampling framework. We have used simulation studies and real data to demonstrate the superior performance of hyper-LASSO priors compared to LASSO, and to investigate the issues of choosing heaviness and scale of hyper-LASSO priors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian techniques have been widely used in finite element model (FEM) updating. The attraction of these techniques is their ability to quantify and characterize the uncertainties associated with dynamic systems. In order to update an FEM, the Bayesian formulation requires the evaluation of the posterior distribution function. For large systems, this function is difficult to solve analytically. In such cases, the use of sampling techniques often provides a good approximation of this posterior distribution function. The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) method is a classic sampling method used to approximate high-dimensional complex problems. However, the acceptance rate of HMC is sensitive to the system size, as well as to the time step used to evaluate the molecular dynamics trajectory. The shadow HMC technique (SHMC), which is a modified version of the HMC method, was developed to improve sampling for large system sizes by drawing from a modified shadow Hamiltonian function. However, the SHMC algorithm performance is limited by the use of a non-separable modified Hamiltonian function. Moreover, two additional parameters are required for the sampling procedure, which could be computationally expensive. To overcome these weaknesses, the separable shadow HMC (S2HMC) method has been introduced. This method uses a transformation to a different parameter space to generate samples. In this paper, we analyse the application and performance of these algorithms, including the parameters used in each algorithm, their limitations and the effects on model updating. The accuracy and the efficiency of the algorithms are demonstrated by updating the finite element models of two real mechanical structures. It is observed that the S2HMC algorithm has a number of advantages over the other algorithms; for example, the S2HMC algorithm is able to efficiently sample at larger time steps while using fewer parameters than the other algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of partially linear additive models for quantile regression. We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach to quantile regression models using a spectral representation of the nonparametric regression functions and the Dirichlet process (DP) mixture for error distribution. We also consider Bayesian variable selection procedures for both parametric and nonparametric components in a partially linear additive model structure based on the Bayesian shrinkage priors via a stochastic search algorithm. Based on the proposed Bayesian semiparametric additive quantile regression model referred to as BSAQ, the Bayesian inference is considered for estimation and model selection. For the posterior computation, we design a simple and efficient Gibbs sampler based on a location-scale mixture of exponential and normal distributions for an asymmetric Laplace distribution, which facilitates the commonly used collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithms for the DP mixture models. Additionally, we discuss the asymptotic property of the sempiparametric quantile regression model in terms of consistency of posterior distribution. Simulation studies and real data application examples illustrate the proposed method and compare it with Bayesian quantile regression methods in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on interest rate models with regime switching and extends previous nonlinear threshold models by relaxing the assumption of a fixed number of regimes. Instead we suggest automatic model determination through Bayesian inference via the reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Moreover, we allow the thresholds in the volatility to be driven not only by the interest rate but also by other economic factors. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to interest rates and other economic factors of the American economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]