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This paper investigates hydrological responses to climate change in the Luan River basin in North China. The average outputs of IPCC AR4 multi-models under different scenarios (SRES-A2, A1B and B1) are used to drive the SWAT model after calibration to simulate hydrological processes during 2011–2099. Results show increasing trends for precipitation, temperature and runoff under all scenarios, while compared to the baseline, the annual runoff decreases except for a slight increase during the 2080s under the A2 and A1B scenarios; meanwhile, the runoff in spring, autumn and winter decreases except for a slight increase during the 2080s under A2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]