This paper studies the updated estimation method for estimating the transmission rate changes over time. The models for the population dynamics under SEIR epidemic models with stochastic perturbations are analysed the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bogotá, Colombia. We performed computational experiments to interpret COVID-19 dynamics using actual data for the proposed models. We estimate the model parameters and updated their estimates for reported infected and recovered data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
In this paper, a stochastic epidemiological model is presented as an extension of a compartmental SEIR model with random perturbations to analyze the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Bogotá D.C., Colombia. This model incorporates the spread of COVID-19 impacted by social behaviors in the population and allows for projecting the number of infected, recovered, and deceased individuals considering the mitigation measures, namely confinement and partial relaxed restrictions. Also, the role of randomness using the concept of Brownian motion is emphasized to explain the behavior of the population. Computational experiments for the stochastic model with random perturbations were performed, and the model is validated through numerical simulations for actual data from Bogotá D.C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]