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This paper studies an impact of media epidemic system with diffusion and linear source. We first derive the uniform bounds of solutions to impact on media reaction diffusion system. Then, the basic reproduction number is calculated and the threshold dynamics of impact media reaction diffusion system is also given and the Kuratowski measure κ of non-compactness is also considered. In addition, assume the spatial environment is homogeneous, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium of the system is global stability by constructing suitable Lyapunov function. Finally, we discuss the asymptotic profile of the system when the diffusion rate of the susceptible (infected) individuals for the system tends to zero or infinity. The main results show that the activities of infected individuals can only be at low risk, and then the virus eventually will be extinct, that is, to control the entry of viruses from abroad and increase the detection of domestic viruses. Finally, some numerical simulations are worked out to confirm the results obtained in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we develop and analyze a mathematical model for spreading malaria, including treatment with transmission‐blocking drugs (TBDs). The paper's main aim is to demonstrate the impact the chosen model for demographic growth has on the disease's transmission and the effect of its treatment with TBDs. We calculate the model's control reproduction number and equilibria and perform a global stability analysis of the disease‐free equilibrium point. The mathematical analysis reveals that, depending on the model's demography, the model can exhibit forward, backward, and even some unconventional types of bifurcation, where disease elimination can occur for both small and large values of the reproduction number. We also conduct a numerical analysis to explore the short‐time behavior of the model. A key finding is that for one type of demographic growth, the population experienced a significantly higher disease burden than the others, and when exposed to high levels of treatment with TBDs, only this population succeeded in effectively eliminating the disease within a reasonable timeframe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge diffusion in regional innovation ecosystems is an important factor that influences the regional innovation efficiency. In regional innovation ecosystems under digital empowerment, the knowledge diffusion enables the optimal allocation of innovation resources and promotes the sustainable development and ecological evolution of regional innovation ecosystems. In this paper, a SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered) model is proposed for knowledge diffusion in regional innovation ecosystems under digitization. The basic reproduction number of the proposed model is calculated and its stability is validated. Finally, the expressions for the optimal control system and the optimal control parameters are presented. According to the research conclusions of this paper, the knowledge-diffusion ability of innovation agents in an innovation ecosystem affects the knowledge diffusion in a system; the contact rate between innovation agents affects the efficiency of knowledge diffusion in the system and the structure of the system; the digital transmission ability of innovation agents affects the breadth of knowledge diffusion in the system; and the self-learning ability of innovation agents affects the efficiency of knowledge diffusion in the system.The digital technologies help heterogeneous innovation agents in regional innovation ecosystems to break down the knowledge silos. At the same time, the digital technologies enhance the ability of innovation agents to absorb and learn knowledge in regional innovation ecosystems under digitization, thereby increasing the infection rate of knowledge diffusion in such systems.These conclusions extend the theoretical boundaries of innovation ecosystems and knowledge diffusion and offer management implications for enterprises and governments in decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, because infectious diseases have a large impact on people, control methods for all infectious diseases are crucial. In this paper, we propose a SIQR model with Crowley-Martin type incidence rate and saturated treatment. We have incorporated precautionary measures taken by the population through the saturated incidence rate. Screening of individuals who have come into contact with infected individuals is modelled. Thus, we explore a four-dimensional mathematical model to study the dynamics of the infectious diseases and their management. Stability and bifurcation analysis ofthe system is done. The Mensitivity analysis of all parameters in relation to the basic reproduction number has been performed and the theoretical results have been validated using numerical simulation. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that both government interventions and individual efforts must be incorporated to achieve better control of emerging infectious diseases in the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with a reaction-diffusion SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic model governed by a saturated incidence function and linear birth-death growth in advective environments. The related model without birth and death case has been studied in our previous work [8]. In this paper, our main purpose is to investigate the combined effects of varying total population, saturation infection mechanism and spatial heterogeneity on the transmission dynamics and spatial distribution of disease. The extinction and persistence of the infectious disease in terms of the basic reproduction number are established. We discuss the global attractivity of the equilibria in two special cases and explore the asymptotic profiles of the endemic equilibrium with respect to the dispersal and advection rates. Compared with the results for the model without birth and death in [8] , our findings indicate that the linear birth-death growth can enhance the persistence of an infectious disease and may provide some prospective applications in disease prevention and control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce a new mathematical epidemic model with the effect of vaccination. We formulate a Susceptible-High risk-Infective-Recovered-Vaccinated (SHIRV) model in which the susceptible individuals with a higher probability of being infected (H) are selected as a separate class. We study the dynamical behavior of this model and define the basic reproductive number, R0. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable if R0 < 1, and it is unstable if R0 1. Also, we investigate the existence and stability of the endemic equilibrium point analytically. For the system of differential equations of the SHIRV model, we give an approximating solution by using the Legendre-Ritz-Galerkin method. Finally, we study the influence of vaccination on measles and smallpox, two cases of the epidemic, using the proposed method in this paper. Numerical results showed that choosing high-risk people for vaccination can prevent them from getting infected and reduce mortality in the community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document discusses the challenges faced in mathematical modeling and controlling COVID-19 epidemics. It highlights the global impact of the pandemic on the economy and health, as well as the uneven effects on different age groups. The availability of vaccines led to mass vaccination campaigns, prompting researchers to implement new strategies and innovative approaches. The document also mentions various journals that have published special issues on COVID-19, covering topics such as forecasting, vaccination strategies, and control measures. The special issue presented in this document consists of eleven papers that analyze clinical characteristics, variant spread, economic recovery, mortality rates, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and coordinated actions. The papers propose mathematical models and control strategies to minimize disease spread and prioritize vaccination. The document emphasizes the multidisciplinary nature of the research, involving fields such as applied mathematics, data science, engineering, biology, and economics. Overall, this special issue provides valuable insights into the mathematical modeling and control of COVID-19 epidemics. [Extracted from the article]

A time-delayed virus dynamic model is proposed with general monotonic incidence, different nonlinear CTL (cytotoxic T lymphocyte) responses [CTL elimination function p y g 1 (z) and CTL stimulation function c y g 2 (z) ], and immune impairment. Indeed, the different CTL responses pose challenges in obtaining the dissipativeness of the model. By constructing appropriate Lyapunov functionals with some detailed analysis techniques, the global stability results of all equilibria of the model are obtained. By the way, we point out that the partial derivative f v (x , 0) is increasing (but not necessarily strictly) in x > 0 for the general monotonic incidence f (x , v). However, some papers defaulted that the partial derivative was strictly increasing. Our main results show that if the basic reproduction number R 0 ≤ 1 , the infection-free equilibrium E 0 is globally asymptotically stable (GAS); if CTL stimulation function c y g 2 (z) = 0 for z = 0 and the CTL threshold parameter R 1 ≤ 1 < R 0 , then the immunity-inactivated infection equilibrium E 1 is GAS; if the immunity-activated infection equilibrium E + exists, then it is GAS. Two specific examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the main results. The main results acquired in this paper improve or extend some of the existing results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant proportion of malaria infections in humans exhibit no symptoms, but it is a reservoir for maintaining malaria transmission. A time periodic reaction-diffusion model for malaria spread is introduced in this paper, incorporating spatial heterogeneity, incubation periods, symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers. This paper introduces the concept of the basic reproduction number R 0 , which is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator, and we present some preliminary results by elementary analysis. The threshold dynamic behavior analysis shows that when R 0 < 1 , the disease is extinct, and when R 0 > 1 , the disease is persistent. We investigate the case of constant system parameters, focusing on the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free steady state when R 0 = 1 . In the numerical simulation section, we validate the theoretical results obtained, and then use elasticity analysis methods to explore the influence of parameters on the output solution. In addition, sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number under homogeneous conditions indicates direction of controlling malaria transmission. And several control measures are evaluated in the following steps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we develop an epidemic model with a nonlinear function that describes the saturated digital contact tracing. The model is theoretically and numerically analyzed based on its dynamics. The model equilibria points and the basic reproduction number are obtained. However, the proposed model reveals both backward and forward bifurcation, and backward bifurcation occurs when the digital contact tracing saturation parameter is larger than a specific threshold. Real data are used to fit the model and estimate the parameter values. Sensitivity analysis reveals that interventions such as reducing the infection rate, enhancing quarantine efforts, and accelerating vaccination can effectively reduce the basic reproduction number, R 0 . Simulations show that improving tracing accuracy and encouraging greater participation in providing personal track information can effectively reduce the peak of undetected exposed individuals. Moreover, we analyze the expression for the specific threshold and determine that the increasing hospital resources and strengthening patient quarantine can reduce the potential occurrence of backward bifurcation. The analysis and simulations presented in this paper provide valuable suggestions for the prevention and control of the epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores a predator–prey system featuring fear and disease within the predator population,utilizing the Rosenzweig–MacArthur model with Holling type-II functional response. The primary focus lies in investigating the impact of a fear factor, wherein the prey's growth rate is hindered due to predator-induced fear. Additionally, the model accounts for the spread of disease among predators,leading to a division between susceptible and infected predator subpopulations. The inclusion of an Allee effect in the susceptible predator further enriches the model. The study involves a thorough examination, encompassing local and global stability analysis as well as Hopf bifurcation analysis around the interior equilibrium point. Numerical simulations underscore a noteworthy observation: an escalation in interaction force propels the system into chaotic dynamics,marked by stable focus, limit cycles and period-doubling phenomena. A noteworthy finding pertains to the influence of the Allee parameter (θ) on chaotic dynamics. As the Allee parameter values increase, the system tends to stable focus through a sequence of chaotic states, period-doubling and limit cycles. Subsequently, the paper introduces the role of another pivotal parameter, the fear factor, into the chaotic dynamics. Intriguingly, chaos transforms into stable focus through diverse nonlinear phenomena, including period-doubling and limit cycles. This nuanced exploration of parameters sheds light on the intricate dynamics governing the predator–prey system, offering a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between fear, disease and ecological factors. So our observation throughout this paper that how chaos behaves here after one by one injection of our new features: fear factor and Allee parameter? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider a multigroup stochastic SIQR epidemic model with varying total population size. After proving the existence and uniqueness of the global solution to the system, we developed sufficient conditions for the existence of an stationary ergodic distribution of the positive solutions. Then we gave sufficient conditions for extinction of the diseases which is based on the basic reproduction number in its corresponding deterministic system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an SIRS model with age structure is proposed for recurrent infectious diseases by incorporating infectious delay and temporary immunity delay. Analysis shows that the disease will eventually disappear when the basic reproduction number ℛ 0 < 1. No matter how the infection delay τ 1 changes, as long as the temporary immunity loss delay τ 2 = 0 , the disease transmission will only be endemic and there will be no periodic oscillations when ℛ 0 > 1. Moreover, the stability and Hopf bifurcation will appear as τ 2 increases from zero. It indicates that the duration of temporary immunity can affect the form of disease transmission within the population. Our numerical simulations verified the correctness of the theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the author proposes and studies a mathematical model for the spread of coronavirus 2019. The effect of preventive programs on the control of disease is also considered. The basic reproduction number R0$$ {R}_0 $$ was computed and the results showed that forward bifurcation occured. Local and global stability of the equilibrium points of the model was studied by geometric stability method and Lyapunov function. Finally, the particular data of China which was reported for Covid‐19 were used for numerical simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a spatiotemporal reaction–diffusion model for epidemics to predict how the infection spreads in a given space. The model is based on a system of partial differential equations with the Neumann boundary conditions. First, we study the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model using the semigroup theory and demonstrate the boundedness of solutions. Further, the proposed model's basic reproduction number is calculated using the eigenvalue problem. Moreover, the dynamic behavior of the disease‐free steady states of the model for R0<1$$ {\mathcal{R}}_0<1 $$ is investigated. The uniform persistence of the model is also discussed. In addition, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic steady state is examined. Finally, the numerical simulations validate the theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diversity of transmission modes and the heterogeneity of populations in the transmission of infectious diseases are issues that have to be faced in the current disease protection. In this paper, an infectious disease model incorporating age structure and horizontal and environmental spread, along with asymptomatic infection, is proposed to describe diversification of disease transmission routes and population heterogeneity. The expression of the basic reproduction number R0$$ {\mathcal{R}}_0 $$ is derived by a linear approximation method, and it is concluded that if R0<1$$ {\mathcal{R}}_0<1 $$, the disease‐free steady state is globally asymptotically stable; if R0>1$$ {\mathcal{R}}_0>1 $$, the model has a unique endemic steady state which is locally asymptotically stable under certain conditions. Further, the uniform persistence of disease is proved using the persistence theory of the infinite‐dimensional dynamical system when R0>1$$ {\mathcal{R}}_0>1 $$. In additional, the issue of optimal control problem according to this model is investigated, and the representation of optimal control with respect to state variables and adjoint variables is obtained which also imply the existence and uniqueness of optimal control. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to interpret the theoretical results and to discuss the impact of age and control measures in disease transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a multi-patch and multi-group vector-borne disease model is proposed to study the effects of host commuting (Lagrangian approach) and/or vector migration (Eulerian approach) on disease spread. We first define the basic reproduction number of the model, R 0 , which completely determines the global dynamics of the model system. Namely, if R 0 ≤ 1 , then the disease–free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if R 0 > 1 , then there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable. Then, we show that the basic reproduction number has lower and upper bounds which are independent of the host residence times matrix and the vector migration matrix. In particular, nonhomogeneous mixing of hosts and vectors in a homogeneous environment generally increases disease persistence and the basic reproduction number of the model attains its minimum when the distributions of hosts and vectors are proportional. Moreover, R 0 can also be estimated by the basic reproduction numbers of disconnected patches if the environment is homogeneous. The optimal vector control strategy is obtained for a special scenario. In the two-patch and two-group case, we numerically analyze the dependence of the basic reproduction number and the total number of infected people on the host residence times matrix and illustrate the optimal vector control strategy in homogeneous and heterogeneous environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the outbreak of major emerging infectious diseases, virus droplets can survive in the environment as aerosols for hours to days, and their impact on human infectious diseases is often overlooked. In addition, the speed of transmission of infectious diseases is often closely related to transportation. Therefore, studying the impact of environmental viruses and transportation on disease development is significant for effective infectious disease prevention and control. We proposed a degenerate reaction–diffusion infectious disease model (SEAIR) considering environmental virus interference and established a well-posedness and threshold system for this model. We have obtained the system solution approaches the disease-free equilibrium (피0) when the basic reproduction number ℛ0 ≤ 1. The system has at least one positive steady state solution (PSS) when ℛ0 > 1. This paper used a non-standard finite difference method discretization model while data fitting and parameter estimation were performed based on data provided by the Health Commission. Further sensitivity analysis was conducted on ℛ0. At the same time, we also discussed the impact of various parameters in the early stages of the outbreak of major emerging infectious diseases on the development of the disease. Research found that even if the contact rate between people is controlled at a shallow level, the disease may persist. In the early stages of major emerging outbreak of infectious diseases, immediately reducing the use of transportation can effectively reduce the speed of disease spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose and analyze a reaction–diffusion vector–host disease model with advection effect in an one‐dimensional domain. We introduce the basic reproduction number (BRN) ℜ0$\Re _0$ and establish the threshold dynamics of the model in terms of ℜ0$\Re _0$. When there are no advection terms, we revisit the asymptotic behavior of ℜ0$\Re _0$ w.r.t. diffusion rate and the monotonicity of ℜ0$\Re _0$ under certain conditions. Furthermore, we obtain the asymptotic behavior of ℜ0$\Re _0$ under the influence of advection effects. Our results indicate that when the advection rate is large enough relative to the diffusion rate, ℜ0$\Re _0$ tends to be the value of local basic reproduction number (LBRN) at the downstream end, which enriches the asymptotic behavior results of the BRN in nonadvection heterogeneous environments. In addition, we explore the level set classification of ℜ0$\Re _0$, that is, there exists a unique critical surface indicating that the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable on one side of the surface, while it is unstable on the other side. Our results also reveal that the aggregation phenomenon will occur, namely, when the ratio of advection rate to diffusion rate is large enough, infected individuals will gather at the downstream end. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decline in amphibian populations in recent decades may be linked to the occurrence of infectious diseases such as chytridiomycosis, which is caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). It is known that symbiotic bacteria protect the host due to their inhibitory nature. However, how the population dynamics of amphibians is affected by additional effects provided by symbiotic bacteria has not been analyzed in depth. In this paper, a model is proposed to describe the interaction among susceptible amphibians, susceptible amphibians with symbiotic bacteria and amphibians with chytrid fungus. When the modeling takes into account the additional reproductive benefits that the symbiont Pseudomonas sp. grants to the host, multiple endemic equilibrium points can exist if R0 < 1 (R0 is the basic reproduction number for Bd). In this scenario, the existence of a subcritical bifurcation at R0 = 1, which can occur in two different disease-free equilibrium points, gives rise to complex dynamics and stability scenarios. Particularly, the analysis of the model shows that a sudden increase of fungus-infected amphibians can occur even when R0 < 1 due to bistability phenomena. In this scenario, the existence of a subcritical bifurcation, which translates for the fungus into colonization even for values of R0 less than one, represents an advantage for the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis since the pathogen should benefit from remaining as close as possible to an endemic equilibrium. To control the fungal infection, R0 must be reduced to a value below one until the endemic equilibrium points disappear. Finally, we show that the amphibian population can reach a critical population level close to an extinction scenario when R0 increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper concerns with the global threshold dynamics of a Tuberculosis (TB) model incorporating age‐space structure, treatment, and relapse. The original model is converted into a hybrid system comprising two Volterra integral equations and two partial differential equations by integrating along the characteristic line. The well‐posedness for the model is demonstrated by using the fixed point theory in conjunction with the induction method. In order to discuss whether a disease is persistent or extinct, we provide the explicit formulation of the basic reproduction number. By analyzing the distribution of the characteristic roots of the characteristic equations and constructing the proper Lyapunov functionals, the local and global stability for the steady states are addressed. Numerical simulations are conducted to confirm the conclusions of our analytical results and reveal that reduction of the TB transmission coefficient, reduction of infectiousness of treated individuals infected with TB, and increasing the treatment rate of infectious class are three feasible measures to control the transmission of TB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIS) epidemic patch model with media delay is proposed at first. Then the basic reproduction number R0$\mathcal {R}_0$ is defined, and the threshold dynamics are studied. It is shown that the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0<1$\mathcal {R}_0<1$ and the disease is uniformly persistent if R0>1$\mathcal {R}_0>1$. When the dispersal rates of susceptible and infected populations are identical and less than a critical value, it is proved that the limiting model has a unique positive equilibrium. Furthermore, the stability of the positive equilibrium and the existence of local and global Hopf bifurcations are obtained. Finally, some numerical simulations are performed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we rigorously analyze an HIV-1 infection model with CTL immune response and three time delays which represent the latent period, virus production period and immune response delay, respectively. We begin this model with proving the positivity and bound-edness of the solution. For this model, the basic reproduction number R0 and the immune reproduction number R1 are identified. Moreover, we have shown that the model has three e-quilibria, namely the infection-free equilibrium E0, the infectious equilibrium without immune response E1 and the infectious equilibrium with immune response E2. By applying uctuation lemma and Lyapunov functionals, we have demonstrated that the global stability of E0 and E1 are only related to R0 and R1. The local stability of the third equilibrium is obtained under four situations. Further, we give the conditions for the existence of Hopf bifurcation. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out for illustrating the theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we suggest a mathematical model of COVID-19 with multiple variants of the virus under optimal control. Mathematical modeling has been used to gain deeper insights into the transmission of COVID-19, and various prevention and control strategies have been implemented to mitigate its spread. Our model is a SEIR-based model for multi-strains of COVID-19 with 7 compartments. We also consider the circulatory structure to account for the termination of immunity for COVID-19. The model is established in terms of the positivity and boundedness of the solution and the existence of equilibrium points, and the local stability of the solution. As a result of fitting data of COVID-19 in Ghana to the model, the basic reproduction number of the original virus and Delta variant was estimated to be 1.9396, and the basic reproduction number of the Omicron variant was estimated to be 3.4905, which is 1.8 times larger than that. We observe that even small differences in the incubation and recovery periods of two strains with the same initial transmission rate resulted in large differences in the number of infected individuals. In the case of COVID-19, infections caused by the Omicron variant occur 1.5 to 10 times more than those caused by the original virus. In terms of the optimal control strategy, we formulate three control strategies focusing on social distancing, vaccination, and testing-treatment. We have developed an optimal control model for the three strategies outlined above for the multi-strain model using the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Through numerical simulations, we analyze three optimal control strategies for each strain and also consider combinations of the two control strategies. As a result of the simulation, all control strategies are effective in reducing disease spread, in particular, vaccination strategies are more effective than the other two control strategies. In addition the combination of the two strategies also reduces the number of infected individuals by 1/10 compared to implementing one strategy, even when mild levels are implemented. Finally, we show that if the testing-treatment strategy is not properly implemented, the number of asymptomatic and unidentified infections may surge. These results could help guide the level of government intervention and prevention strategy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider a reaction–diffusion dengue model on a varying domain that monotonically increases in time and gradually approaches saturation arising from environmental change. By the upper and lower solutions, comparison principle, asymptotic autonomous semiflows and the technique of Lyapunov function, we investigate the stabilities of equilibria in terms of the basic reproduction number $ \Re _0^{\rho } $ ℜ 0 ρ . The results show that (i) if $ \Re _0^{\rho } \gt 1 $ ℜ 0 ρ > 1 , the nontrivial solutions starting from the upper and lower solutions of the model approach to the set formulated by the maximal and minimal solutions of its related elliptic problem; (ii) the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $ \Re _0^{\rho } \lt 1 $ ℜ 0 ρ < 1. Comparing our problem in different settings including growing domain, fixed domain and without spatial structure, our results demonstrate that the disease can spread in the growing domain, while vanish in the fixed domain; and the spatial model decreases the transmission risk compared with the system without spatial structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce the notion of practically susceptible population, which is a fraction of the biologically susceptible population. Assuming that the fraction depends on the severity of the epidemic and the public's level of precaution (as a response of the public to the epidemic), we propose a general framework model with the response level evolving with the epidemic. We firstly verify the well-posedness and confirm the disease's eventual vanishing for the framework model under the assumption that the basic reproduction number R 0 < 1 . For R 0 > 1 , we study how the behavioural response evolves with epidemics and how such an evolution impacts the disease dynamics. More specifically, when the precaution level is taken to be the instantaneous best response function in literature, we show that the endemic dynamic is convergence to the endemic equilibrium; while when the precaution level is the delayed best response, the endemic dynamic can be either convergence to the endemic equilibrium, or convergence to a positive periodic solution. Our derivation offers a justification/explanation for the best response used in some literature. By replacing "adopting the best response" with "adapting toward the best response", we also explore the adaptive long-term dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates a nonlocal dispersal epidemic model under the multiple nonlocal distributed delays and nonlinear incidence effects. First, the minimal wave speed c ∗ and the basic reproduction number R 0 are defined, which determine the existence of traveling wave solutions. Second, with the help of the upper and lower solutions, Schauder's fixed point theorem, and limiting techniques, the traveling waves satisfying some asymptotic boundary conditions are discussed. Specifically, when ℛ 0 > 1 , for every speed c > c ∗ there exists a traveling wave solution satisfying the boundary conditions, and there is no such traveling wave solution for any 0 < c < c ∗ when ℛ 0 > 1 or c > 0 when ℛ 0 < 1. Finally, we analyze the effects of nonlocal time delay on the minimum wave speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an SIRS epidemic model using Grunwald–Letnikov fractional-order derivative is formulated with the help of a nonlinear system of fractional differential equations to analyze the effects of fear in the population during the outbreak of deadly infectious diseases. The criteria for the spread or extinction of the disease are derived and discussed on the basis of the basic reproduction number. The condition for the existence of Hopf bifurcation is discussed considering fractional order as a bifurcation parameter. Additionally, using the Grunwald–Letnikov approximation, the simulation is carried out to confirm the validity of analytic results graphically. Using the real data of COVID-19 in India recorded during the second wave from 15 May 2021 to 15 December 2021, we estimate the model parameters and find that the fractional-order model gives the closer forecast of the disease than the classical one. Both the analytical results and numerical simulations presented in this study suggest different policies for controlling or eradicating many infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infectious disease outbreaks have caused significant losses to populations worldwide in terms of morbidity, social and economic costs. This has prompted governments to seek suitable intervention policies to suppress the outbreaks. This paper aims to explore the intrinsic impact of intervention strategies and the psychological behavior of people on the spread of infectious diseases. Employing the finite state Markov chain, we formulate a new stochastic SIS epidemic model under regime switching by using the Beddington–DeAngelis transmission function, in the presence of some governmental control measures. The study of the model is centered on three different scenarios in terms of varying two control parameters. We analyze the deterministic system for the global dynamics in terms of basic reproductive number. Some new threshold parameters are defined to discuss the extinction and the persistence of the disease in the stochastic setting. Numerical assessments were undertaken to validate theoretical findings for the deterministic and stochastic systems. Our findings strongly suggest that heightened awareness among susceptible individuals contributes significantly to the eradication of infection and fosters a stable epidemiological situation. As levels of public awareness increase, particularly within the susceptible population, a discernible trend toward the eradication of the infection emerges, ultimately ensuring sustained stability within the epidemiological landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To control resurging infectious diseases like mumps, it is necessary to resort to effective control and preventive measures. These measures include increasing vaccine coverage, providing the community with advice on how to reduce exposure, and closing schools. To justify such intervention, it is important to understand how well each of these measures helps to limit transmission. Methods: In this paper, we propose a simple SEILR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatically infectious-asymptomatically infectious-recovered) model by using a novel transmission rate function to incorporate temperature, humidity, and closing school factors. This new transmission rate function allows us to verify the impact of each factor either separately or combined. Using reported mumps cases from 2004 to 2018 in the mainland of China, we perform data fitting and parameter estimation to evaluate the basic reproduction number R 0 . As a wide range of one-dose measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine programs in China started only in 2008, we use different vaccination proportions for the first Stage I period (from 2004 to 2008) and the second Stage II period (from 2009 to 2018). This allows us to verify the importance of higher vaccine coverage with a possible second dose of MMR vaccine. Results: We find that the basic reproduction number R 0 is generally between 1 and 3. We then use the Akaike Information Criteria to assess the extent to which each of the three factors contributed to the spread of mumps. The findings suggest that the impact of all three factors is substantial, with temperature having the most significant impact, followed by school opening and closing, and finally humidity. Conclusion: We conclude that the strategy of increasing vaccine coverage, changing micro-climate (temperature and humidity), and closing schools can greatly reduce mumps transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we construct an infectious disease model with a testing compartment and analyze the existence and stability of its endemic states. We obtain the basic reproduction number, R 0 , and demonstrate the existence of one endemic equilibrium without testing and one endemic equilibrium with testing and prove their local and global stabilities based on the value of the basic reproduction number, R 0 . We then apply our model to the US COVID-19 pandemic and find that, for a large parameter set, including those relevant to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, our analytic and numerical results suggest that the trajectories will be trapped to the testing-free state when the testing number is small enough. This indicates that the pandemic may end with a testing-free endemic state through a novel and surprising mechanism called stochastic trapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis paper presents a new nonlinear epidemic model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 that incorporates the effect of double dose vaccination. The model is analyzed using qualitative, stability, and sensitivity analysis techniques to investigate the impact of vaccination on the spread of the virus. We derive the basic reproduction number and perform stability analysis of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. The model is also subjected to sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential model parameters affecting the disease dynamics. The values of the parameters are estimated with the help of the least square curve fitting tools. Finally, the model is simulated numerically to assess the effectiveness of various control strategies, including vaccination and quarantine, in reducing the spread of the virus. Optimal control techniques are employed to determine the optimal allocation of resources for implementing control measures. Our results suggest that increasing the vaccination coverage, adherence to quarantine measures, and resource allocation are effective strategies for controlling the epidemic. The study provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the pandemic and offers guidance for policymakers in formulating effective control measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a new stochastic epidemic model is established and the dynamical behavior of its solutions is studied for this model. A deterministic epidemic model (ordinary differential equation) is first proposed by considering the isolation mechanism, and the transmission probability function is determined by a Wells–Riley model method to analyze the transmission in the quarantine. For this deterministic model, the basic reproduction number R 0 is computed and it is used to determine the existence of disease-free and positive equilibria. The linearized stability of the equilibria is also discussed by analyzing the distribution of eigenvalues of the linear system. Following that, a corresponding stochastic epidemic model is further established by introducing stochastic disturbance. Then, the extinction result of the model is derived also with the help of the basic reproduction number R 0 s. Furthermore, by applying the theory of Markov semigroups, it is proved that the densities of the distributions of the solutions can converge to an invariant density or sweeping under certain conditions. At last, some numerical simulations are provided and discussed to illustrate the practicability of the model and the obtained theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most water-borne disease models ignore the advection of water flows in order to simplify the mathematical analysis and numerical computation. However, advection can play an important role in determining the disease transmission dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the long-term dynamics of a periodic reaction–advection–diffusion schistosomiasis model and explore the joint impact of advection, seasonality and spatial heterogeneity on the transmission of the disease. We derive the basic reproduction number R 0 and show that the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive when R 0 < 1 whereas there is a positive endemic periodic solution and the system is uniformly persistent in a special case when R 0 > 1 . Moreover, we find that R 0 is a decreasing function of the advection coefficients which offers insights into why schistosomiasis is more serious in regions with slow water flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a reaction–advection–diffusion dengue fever model with seasonal developmental durations and intrinsic incubation periods. Firstly, we establish the well-posedness of the model. Secondly, we define the basic reproduction number ℜ 0 for this model and show that ℜ 0 is a threshold parameter: if ℜ 0 < 1 , then the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive; if ℜ 0 > 1 , the system is uniformly persistent. Thirdly, we study the global attractivity of the positive steady state when the spatial environment is homogeneous and the advection of mosquitoes is ignored. As an example, we use the model to investigate the dengue fever transmission case in Guangdong Province, China, and explore the impact of model parameters on ℜ 0 . Our findings indicate that ignoring seasonality may underestimate ℜ 0 . Additionally, the spatial heterogeneity of transmission may increase the risk of disease transmission, while the increase of seasonal developmental durations, intrinsic incubation periods and advection rates can all reduce the risk of disease transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Age structure is one of the crucial factors in characterizing the heterogeneous epidemic transmission. Vaccination is regarded as an effective control measure for prevention and control epidemics. Due to the shortage of vaccine capacity during the outbreak of epidemics, how to design vaccination policy has become an urgent issue in suppressing the disease transmission. In this paper, we make an effort to propose an age-structured SVEIHR model with the disease-caused death to take account of dynamics of age-related vaccination policy for better understanding disease spread and control. We present an explicit expression of the basic reproduction number R 0 , which determines whether or not the disease persists, and then establish the existence and stability of endemic equilibria under certain conditions. Numerical simulations are illustrated to show that the age-related vaccination policy has a tremendous influence on curbing the disease transmission. Especially, vaccination of people over 65 is better than for people aged 21–65 in terms of rapid eradication of the disease in Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summary measurement of an epidemic such as the final size is an important quantity that allows us to approximate the impact of the disease on the affected region. In recent years, final size measurements for vector-transmitted diseases have acquired importance because of the increased concern for mosquito-borne diseases like dengue, Zika, Chikungunya, etc. However, analytical expressions for this estimate in the stage-structured models applicable to vector-borne diseases are less, mostly focused on the classical Kermack–McKendrick model. In this paper, we first calculate the final size expressions for an SIR model with carrier state and a SEIR–SI host–vector model. Then we extend this for the SEIR–SI host–vector model with treatment class in the host, as well as for the model with vertical transmission in the vector population. Finally, we verify our final size expression with some real scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary objective of this paper is to conduct an in-depth analysis of the intricacies inherent in a gender-structured model depicting the dynamics of HIV–TB coinfection. The model is articulated through a set of nonlinear fractional-order differential equations. Our focus is on elucidating the stability characteristics around equilibrium points, employing advanced fractional stability techniques. We leverage sensitivity analysis as a powerful tool to discern the specific model parameters exerting significant influence on the transmission and control of the coinfection, as gauged by the basic reproduction number. Through this, we aim to identify key factors that drive the spread or containment of the dual affliction. Furthermore, we delve into the realm of optimization by formulating a fractional optimal control problem. The objective is to design and implement two control strategies that effectively mitigate the prevalence of coinfection, demonstrating a state of perfect protection. Notably, our findings reveal that the implementation of control measures at a rate exceeding 80% suffices to eliminate the infection entirely. We anticipate that the insights garnered from this research will prove instrumental for policymakers in crafting strategic interventions to curtail the tragic impact of HIV–TB coinfection. Our scientifically grounded study serves as a foundation upon which comprehensive plans can be devised to stem the devastating consequences of this dual health challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical models play a crucial role in controlling and preventing the spread of diseases. Based on the communication characteristics of diseases, it is necessary to take into account some essential epidemiological factors such as the time delay that takes an individual to progress from being latent to become infectious, the infectious age which refers to the duration since the initial infection and the occurrence of reinfection after a period of improvement known as relapse, etc. Moreover, age-structured models serve as a powerful tool that allows us to incorporate age variables into the modeling process to better understand the effect of these factors on the transmission mechanism of diseases. In this paper, motivated by the above fact, we reformulate an SEIR model with relapse and age structure in both latent and infected classes. Then, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the model by using the stability theory of differential equations. For this purpose, we introduce the basic reproduction number R 0 of the model and show that this threshold parameter completely governs the stability of each equilibrium of the model. Our approach to show global attractivity is based on the fluctuation lemma and Lyapunov functionals method with some results on the persistence theory. The conclusion is that the system has a disease-free equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable if R 0 < 1 , while it has only a unique positive endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable whenever R 0 > 1 . Our results imply that early diagnosis of latent infection with decrease in both transmission and relapse rates may lead to control and restrict the spread of disease. The theoretical results are illustrated with numerical simulations, which indicate that the age variable is an essential factor affecting the spread of the epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with threshold dynamics of a degenerate diffusive HBV infection model with DNA-containing capsids in heterogeneous environment. We firstly address the existence of global solutions, uniform and ultimate boundedness of solutions, asymptotic smoothness of semiflows and existence of a connected global attractor for the diffusive model. Then, we identify the basic reproduction number R 0 and establish a threshold-type result for the disease eradication or uniform persistence when R 0 ≤ 1 or R 0 > 1 , respectively. Especially, when R 0 > 1 and the diffusion rate of capsids or the diffusion rate of virions is zero, we further show that the model admits a unique infection steady state which is globally attractive. Our results indicate that the pathogen can be eliminated by limiting the mobility of the capsids or virions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we introduce and analyze a discrete SIS epidemic model for a homogeneous population. As a discretization method the strictly positive scheme was chosen. The presented model is built from its continuous counterpart known from literature. We firstly present basic properties of the system. Later we discuss local stability of stationary states and global stability for the disease-free stationary state. The results for this state are expressed with the use of the basic reproduction number. The main conclusion from our work is that conditions for stability of the stationary states do not depend on the step size of the discretization method. This fact stays in contrary to other discrete models analyzed in our previous papers. Theoretical results are accomplished with numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several research papers have attempted to describe the dynamics of COVID-19 based on systems of differential equations. These systems have taken into account quarantined or isolated cases, vaccinations, control measures, and demographic parameters, presenting propositions regarding theoretical results that often investigate the asymptotic behavior of the system. In this paper, we discuss issues that concern the theoretical results proposed in the paper "An Extended SEIR Model with Vaccination for Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter". We propose detailed explanations regarding the resolution of these issues. Additionally, this paper focuses on extending the local stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium, as presented in the aforementioned paper, while emphasizing the derivation of theorems that validate the global stability of both epidemic equilibria. Emphasis is placed on the basic reproduction number R 0 , which determines the asymptotic behavior of the system. This index represents the expected number of secondary infections that are generated from an already infected case in a population where almost all individuals are susceptible. The derived propositions can inform health authorities about the long-term behavior of the phenomenon, potentially leading to more precise and efficient public measures. Finally, it is worth noting that the examined paper still presents an interesting epidemiological scheme, and the utilization of the Kalman filtering approach remains one of the state-of-the-art methods for modeling epidemic phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigated a new heroin–cocaine epidemic model which incorporates spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear incidence rate. The main project of this paper is to explore the threshold dynamics in terms of the basic reproduction number $ \mathcal {R}_0 $ R 0 , which was defined by applying the next-generation operator. The threshold type results shown that if $ \mathcal {R}_0 \lt 1 $ R 0 < 1 , then the drug-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable. If $ \mathcal {R}_0 \gt 1 $ R 0 > 1 , then heroin–cocaine spread is uniformly persistent. Furthermore, the globally asymptotic stability of the drug-free steady state has been established for the critical case of $ \mathcal {R}_0=1 $ R 0 = 1 by analysing the local asymptotic stability and global attractivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]