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The primary aspiration of this paper is to learn about the effects of economic growth, energy consumption, agriculture and irrigation water consumption and agriculture productivity on environmental pollution in five countries of Central Asia. The data cover the period from 1992 to 2020 by applying panel data models, namely the Panel FMOLS, Panel DOLS and Panel ARDL-PMG approaches. The results indicate that there is a positive long-term impact of economic growth, water productivity, energy consumption and electricity production on CO2 emissions while agriculture value added and trade openness have a negative and statistically significant influence on CO2 emissions in Central Asia. Country specific short-run coefficients from Panel ARDL reveal that energy consumption is the main driver for rise in the level of CO2 emissions in the countries under the study. Indeed, country level analysis generates unique nexus correlation among agriculture, energy and environmental degradation in each country of Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) are likely to cause more severe natural disasters than a single extreme event, and they have been exacerbated by rapid global warming. Based on high-resolution grid data, this study combines the daily-scale ERA5-Land dataset and the monthly-scale SPEI dataset with multiple indicators to analyze CDHWs. We calculated and analyzed the temporal and spatial modal distribution of CDHWs in Central Asia from 1981 to 2018, and in this paper, we discuss the sequence relationship between drought events, heatwave events, and CDHWs. The results show that the number of CDHWs in the study region have increased over time and expanded in terms of area, especially in eastern and southwestern Central Asia. The tsum (total frequency of CDHWs) was 0.5 times higher than the total heatwave frequency and it increased at a rate of 0.17/yr. The maximum duration of tmax (maximum duration of CDHWs in days) was 17 days. Furthermore, the occurrence rate of tmax was 96.67%, and the AH (CDHWs' accumulated heat) had a rate of 97.78%, which, upon examination of the spatial trend pattern, accounted for the largest increase in terms of area. We also found that the TAH (CDHWs' average temperature anomalies, SPEI < −0.5) shows obvious seasonality, with the increases in winter and spring being significantly greater than the increases in summer and autumn. The intensity of the CDHWs was stronger than that of a single extreme event, the temperature anomaly was higher than the average of 0.4–0.8 °C, and there was a north–south spatial pattern across the study region. In eastern and northwestern Central Asia, the AH and heatwaves (SPEI < −0.5) increased by 15–30 times per year on average. During the transition from the base period to the reference period, CDHWs increased by 25%, and the number of dry days prior to the CDHWs decreased by 7.35 days. The conclusion of our study can provide a theoretical basis for coping with climate change in arid zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to introduce different views regarding the concept of adaptive capacity in water governance and unpack it in the Central Asian context, specifically. The desk study research built on the recommendations provided by the academia, policy papers and by experts on enhancing adaptive water governance. The juxtaposition of the three sets of recommendations demonstrates that the further strengthening of IWRM, as well as experimental approach to resource management, improved access to climate knowledge and disaster risk reduction mechanisms can consolidate the adaptive capacities of Central Asian water governance systems. The research was limited by the specific set of selected opinions and should be expanded in the future. As a practical outcome, the analysis aimed to provide the decision-makers in Central Asian states with better science-based avenues to planning adaptation measures ensuite the water sector. Thus, the study can be considered a stepping stone in the discussion on the adaptive capacities of water governance in the Central Asian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to explore the normativeness of the EU by judging its capacity of creating desirable outcomes through its foreign-policy implementation process. From the 1990s on, the EU has become more visible in global politics as a unique, non-traditional actor using its norms and values as a deliberative force. Nevertheless, its conflict-management patterns, conduct of foreign affairs beyond its neighbourhood, participation in the sustainable-development efforts, fight against the climate change, and attitude towards the global financial crisis have all displayed that the EU is, in fact, not at ease in creating desirable outcomes subsequent to its foreign-policy actions. The failure of the Annan Plan in Cyprus is one of the quintessential examples of the EU's consequence-challenged foreign politics. This paper intends to probe the Cyprus question from the perspective of the EU's normative leadership. Georgia, Central Asia, the Doha Round, climate change, and the global financial crisis are among the topics that will be enquired into here in a similar light. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• climate change will trigger a strong increase in temperature in Central Asia. • discharge is expected to increase in early spring and decrease in summer. • projected changes may put spring crops under stress while winter cereals may benefit. • adjusting of planting and irrigation calendar may help in adapting to future changes. Understanding of future climate change impacts and successful planning of adaptation measures are of vital importance for Central Asia given the region's economic vulnerability, dependence on scarce water resources, and observed above global average warming rates. This paper analyses how impacts of climate change on the hydrological regimes and temperature patterns could affect the irrigated agricultural production in two case study areas, the Aspara and Isfara river basins. The methodology applied is based on analysis of temperature indicators and current cropping calendars in target locations combined with hydrological simulations by the process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) of the two river basins. The selected climate change projections comprise the moderate and high emissions scenarios - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results reveal that climate change will create unfavourable conditions for irrigated spring crops, due to decrease of discharge during the vegetation period. On the other hand, the projected shift of peak discharge to an earlier date offers benefits for irrigated winter cereals, providing more water for irrigation in spring. Results suggest that, there is an opportunity to adapt the irrigated agricultural production in the selected regions by fitting the cropping calendars to changing vegetation periods and to the timing of peak discharges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Increased precipitation and temperature are expected under 1.5/2.0 °C warming in Central Asia. • ETc is projected to increase in Central Asia under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. • Water gap (precipitation-CWR) will widen for rainfed north Kazakhstan and irrigated Fergana. In the arid region of Central Asia, climate change leads not only to changes in water availability generated by glacier/snow melt in the alpine regions, but also to changes in water consumption. This paper evaluates agricultural water demand and water supply (represented by precipitation) for the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) under global warming conditions of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. As Central Asia is more sensitive to climate change compared to the global average, the temperature is predicted to rise by 1.7 °C and 2.6 °C and precipitation to increase by 9 % and 12 % in global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, respectively. The average crop water requirement (CWR) is expected to increase by 13 mm and 19 mm per year, respectively, under the global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. A widening gap between water supply and water demand is expected compared to the historical period (1976–2005) under global warming scenario of 2.0 °C. Under global warming of 2.0 °C, the anticipated water gaps between precipitation and CWR are projected to increase by 2.8 × 108 m3 and 1.5 × 108 m3 for the rainfed north Kazakhstan region and the irrigated Fergana region while the increase of precipitation could able to meet the increase in CWR under global warming of 1.5 °C. Investigating the water balance for major planting areas in water-limited Central Asia could provide a scientific basis for sustainable development of the entire region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]