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Abstract: Land-use change (LUC) estimated by economic models has sparked intense international debate. Models estimate how much LUC might be induced under prescribed scenarios and rely on assumptions to generate LUC values. It is critical to test and validate underlying assumptions with empirical evidence. Furthermore, this modeling approach cannot answer if any specific indirect effects are actually caused by biofuel policy. The best way to resolve questions of causation is via scientific methods. Kim and Dale attempt to address the question of if, rather than how much, market-induced land-use change is currently detectable based on the analysis of historic evidence, and in doing so, explore some modeling assumptions behind the drivers of change. Given that there is no accepted approach to estimate the global effects of biofuel policy on land-use change, it is critical to assess the actual effects of policies through careful analysis and interpretation of empirical data. Decision makers need a valid scientific basis for policy decisions on energy choices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Diseases that are transmitted from vertebrate animals to humans are referred to as zoonotic diseases. Although microbial agents such as bacteria and parasites are linked to zoonotic events, viruses account for a high percentage of zoonotic diseases that have emerged. Worryingly, the 21st century has seen a drastic increase in the emergence and re-emergence of viral zoonotic disease. Even though humans and animals have coexisted for millennia, anthropogenic factors have severely increased interactions between the two populations, thereby increasing the risk of disease spill-over. While drivers such as climate shifts, land exploitation and wildlife trade can directly affect the (re-)emergence of viral zoonotic disease, globalisation, geopolitics and social perceptions can directly facilitate the spread of these (re-)emerging diseases. This opinion paper discusses the "intelligent" nature of viruses and their exploitation of the anthropogenic factors driving the (re-)emergence and spread of viral zoonotic disease in a modernised and connected world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land‐use change is considered the greatest threat to nature, having caused worldwide declines in the abundance, diversity, and health of species and ecosystems. Despite increasing research on this global change driver, there are still challenges to forming an effective synthesis. The estimated impact of land‐use change on biodiversity can depend on location, research methods, and taxonomic focus, with recent global meta‐analyses reaching disparate conclusions. Here, we critically appraise this research body and our ability to reach a reliable consensus. We employ named entity recognition to analyze more than 4000 abstracts, alongside full reading of 100 randomly selected papers. We highlight the broad range of study designs and methodologies used; the most common being local space‐for‐time comparisons that classify land use in situ. Species metrics including abundance, distribution, and diversity were measured more frequently than complex responses such as demography, vital rates, and behavior. We identified taxonomic biases, with vertebrates well represented while detritivores were largely missing. Omitting this group may hinder our understanding of how land‐use change affects ecosystem feedback. Research was heavily biased toward temperate forested biomes in North America and Europe, with warmer regions being acutely underrepresented despite offering potential insights into the future effects of land‐use change under novel climates. Various land‐use histories were covered, although more research in understudied regions including Africa and the Middle East is required to capture regional differences in the form of current and historical land‐use practices. Failure to address these challenges will impede our global understanding of land‐use change impacts on biodiversity, limit the reliability of future projections and have repercussions for the conservation of threatened species. Beyond identifying literature biases, we highlight the research priorities and data gaps that need urgent attention and offer perspectives on how to move forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands are carbon‐rich ecosystems that cover 185–423 million hectares (Mha) of the earth's surface. The majority of the world's peatlands are in temperate and boreal zones, whereas tropical ones cover only a total area of 90–170 Mha. However, there are still considerable uncertainties in C stock estimates as well as a lack of information about depth, bulk density and carbon accumulation rates. The incomplete data are notable especially in tropical peatlands located in South America, which are estimated to have the largest area of peatlands in the tropical zone. This paper displays the current state of knowledge surrounding tropical peatlands and their biophysical characteristics, distribution and carbon stock, role in the global climate, the impacts of direct human disturbances on carbon accumulation rates and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on the new peat extension and depth data, we estimate that tropical peatlands store 152–288 Gt C, or about half of the global peatland emitted carbon. We discuss the knowledge gaps in research on distribution, depth, C stock and fluxes in these ecosystems which play an important role in the global carbon cycle and risk releasing large quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere (CO2 and CH4) when subjected to anthropogenic interferences (e.g., drainage and deforestation). Recent studies show that although climate change has an impact on the carbon fluxes of these ecosystems, the direct anthropogenic disturbance may play a greater role. The future of these systems as carbon sinks will depend on advancing current scientific knowledge and incorporating local understanding to support policies geared toward managing and conserving peatlands in vulnerable regions, such as the Amazon where recent records show increased forest fires and deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Separating the individual effects of climate variability and human activities on streamflow is more important than just knowing their combined effects. In this paper, using a scenario-based hydrological simulation approach, the streamflow changes caused by climate variability and two different types of human activities (i.e. land-use change and large reservoirs operations) as well as the contribution rates of these three factors over 272 sub-basins in the Yangtze river basin were quantified and compared among 5 different periods (i.e. 1988–1992 (P1), 1993–1997 (P2), 1998–2002 (P3), 2003–2007 (P4) and 2008–2012 (P5)). Results demonstrate that, at the annual scale, climate variability played a leading role in the change in outflow of most sub-basins. With regard to the seasonal variations in discharge at Datong station, climate factors played a predominant role during P1-P2 and P2-P3. Since the Three Gorges Reservoir began operating in 2003, the discharge was enhanced by reservoirs in January-May and reduced by reservoirs in July-December. Reservoir and climate factors codetermined seasonal streamflow change during P3-P4 and P4-P5. Land-use change made the smallest contribution to seasonal discharge fluctuations. This study can support decision-making in regional water resources planning and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social–ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social–ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) has published global carbon budgets annually since 2007 (Canadell et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 18866–18870; Raupach et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 10288–10293). There are many scientists involved, but the terrestrial fluxes that appear in the budgets are not well understood by ecologists and biogeochemists outside of that community. The purpose of this paper is to make the terrestrial fluxes of carbon in those budgets more accessible to a broader community. The GCP budget is composed of annual perturbations from pre‐industrial conditions, driven by addition of carbon to the system from combustion of fossil fuels and by transfers of carbon from land to the atmosphere as a result of land use. The budget includes a term for each of the major fluxes of carbon (fossil fuels, oceans, land) as well as the rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Land is represented by two terms: one resulting from direct anthropogenic effects (Land Use, Land‐Use Change, and Forestry or land management) and one resulting from indirect anthropogenic (e.g., CO2, climate change) and natural effects. Each of these two net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, in turn, is composed of opposing gross emissions and removals (e.g., deforestation and forest regrowth). Although the GCP budgets have focused on the two net terrestrial fluxes, they have paid little attention to the gross components, which are important for a number of reasons, including understanding the potential for land management to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and understanding the processes responsible for the sink for carbon on land. In contrast to the net fluxes of carbon, which are constrained by the global carbon budget, the gross fluxes are largely unconstrained, suggesting that there is more uncertainty than commonly believed about how terrestrial carbon emissions will respond to future fossil fuel emissions and a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 'Right to Food' is a legal entitlement owed to all human beings established in international law more than half a century ago. Fulfilment of the right has been entrusted to states parties to the 1966 International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR). However, in practice, the right is often breached because of hostility or indifference from individuals or institutions refusing access to provisions, or because of vicissitudes of nature. Adverse impacts due to human interference in natural processes are increasingly noticeable in the area of food production. These processes have been classified into nine distinct categories, all of which need be kept within certain margins, so-called 'Planetary Boundaries', which delineate a safe operating space for humanity. This paper discusses the impact each of these human-induced developments has on the provision of food as well as the other way round and what the consequences would be if the boundaries were exceeded. Yet there are means of keeping the worst consequences of most of these processes at bay. The paper explores some of these. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Energy-Water-Food Nexus is one of the most complex sustainability challenges faced by the world. This is particularly true in Brazil, where insufficiently understood interactions within the Nexus are contributing to large-scale deforestation and land-use change, water and energy scarcity, and increased vulnerability to climate change. The reason is a combination of global environmental change and global economic change, putting unprecedented pressures on the Brazilian environment and ecosystems. In this paper, we identify and discuss the main Nexus challenges faced by Brazil across sectors (e.g. energy, agriculture, water) and scales (e.g. federal, state, municipal). We use four case studies to explore all nodes of the Nexus. For each, we analyse data from economic and biophysical modelling sources in combination with an overview of the legislative and policy landscape, in order to identify governance shortcomings in the context of growing challenges. We analyse the complex interdependence of developments at the global and local (Brazilian) levels, highlighting the impact of global environmental and economic change on Brazil and, conversely, that of developments in Brazil for other countries and the world. We conclude that there is a need to adjust the scientific approach to these challenges as an enabling condition for stronger science-policy bridges for sustainability policy-making. Highlights • Overview of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus in Brazil for science, law and policy. • Review of the complex linkages in the Nexus for water, energy and food security. • Review of the law addressing the Nexus and its coordination deficiencies. • Recommendations for strengthening the Nexus science-policy bridge in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the papers collected in Man's Impact on the Hydrological Cycle in the United Kingdom Hollis gives us a fascinating view of the concerns and approaches of practising hydrologists in the late 1970s. Hollis, a physical geographer from University College London, spent most of his research career considering the way that humans acted to change their surroundings, looking first at the impact of urbanisation on flooding and later at the management of wetlands. The papers in this book cover a wide range of subjects, from the impact of forestry to the effects of house building on channel morphology and function. Many provide valuable reviews and insights into contemporary thinking on the effect of humans on the UK environment, and the modern reader will discover much of value in the ideas and approaches described in this book. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Minimizing the impact of climate change on farmer livelihoods is crucial, but adaptation efforts may have unintended consequences for ecosystems, with potential impacts on farmers' welfare. Unintended outcomes of climate adaptation strategies have been widely discussed, however, empirical exploration has been neglected. Grounded in scholarship on climate adaptation, environmental governance, social-ecological systems, and land-use change, this paper studies whether farmers' climate adaptation contributes to deforestation or forest conservation. The paper draws on interviews with 353 farmers from 46 communities in Calakmul Biosphere Reserve in Mexico and Maya Biosphere Reserve in Guatemala. Farmers in the area of study have implemented adaptation strategies that people around the world have used for centuries, including migration, diversification, savings, and pooling. The findings show that climate adaptation can increase deforestation or support forest conservation depending on the type of adaptation strategy farmers implement. Saving, based on cattle ranching, is a deforestation-driving strategy. The choice of this strategy is influenced by distance to the commercial and administrative center and cash benefits from the forest. Deforestation can have a negative impact on farmers' welfare, as well as harm biodiversity and contribute to increased climate change. Thus, deforestation-driving adaptation strategies may be ineffective. However, diversification, based on off-farm jobs and operating provision shops, is a conservation-driving strategy influenced by distance as well as by family size. Farmers who choose diversification to adapt may contribute to a virtuous circle in which livelihood improvement in the short term leads to enhanced social-ecological resilience in the longer term. The need for farmers to implement adaptation strategies thus represents great risk but also opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our aim with this paper is to present a novel approach for developing story lines and scenarios by combining qualitative knowledge and quantitative data from different disciplines and discussing the results with relevant decision makers. This research strategy offers a solid foundation for perspectives into the future. The "laboratory" is the Brazilian Amazon, one of the hotspots of land-use change where local and global interests both collide and converge: local livelihoods are affected by regional and global climate change and by the loss of biodiversity caused by local and global economic interests in agro-industrial land use; such use contributes, in turn, to climate change. After decades of diverse policy interventions the question arises: What can we learn from past trajectories for a more sustainable development in the future? To answer this question, we combined qualitative story lines for the region, reviewed by local experts, with quantitative land-use scenarios, to study their regional and local manifestations in space. These results were then discussed again with local and national experts. Our findings suggest that in-depth knowledge of the diverging perspectives at a very local level is a fundamental prerequisite for downscaling global scenarios and upscaling local approaches to sustainable land-use management and thus, to producing communicable and applicable results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palaearctic grasslands encompass a diverse variety of habitats, many of high nature value and vulnerability. The main challenges are climate-change, land-use change, agricultural intensification and abandonment. Many measures are in place to address these challenges, through restoration and appropriate management, though more work is necessary. We present eight studies from China/Germany, Greece, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine. The papers cover a wide range of grassland and steppe habitats and cover vegetation ecology, syntaxonomy and zoology. We also conducted a systematic search on steppe and grassland diversity. The greatest number of studies was from China, followed by Germany and England. We conclude that the amount of research being carried out on Eurasian grasslands is inadequate considering their high levels of biodiversity and vulnerability. We hope to encourage readers to address current major challenges, such as how to manage grasslands for the benefit of diverse taxa, to ensure that conservation initiatives concentrate on sites where there is good potential for success and for the generation of realistic and viable conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Abundant information is available on West African drought and its hydrological and environmental impacts. Land-use and climatic changes have greatly modified the conditions of Sudanian and Sahelian hydrology, impacting the regime and discharge of the main rivers. Human pressure on the environment (significant increase in crops and disappearance of natural bushes and landscapes, for example) has led to severe soil crusting and desertification throughout Sahelian regions. Despite recent increases in rainfall, the drought has not ended, resulting in two different hydrological evolutions. In the Sudanian areas, stream flows have been reduced, sometimes as much as twice the rainfall reduction rate. In the Sahelian regions, runoff coefficients have increased to such a degree that discharges are increasing, in spite of the reduced rainfall. The main goal of this paper is to synthesize the recent advances in the Sahelian and Sudano-Sahelian West African hydrology. The other objectives are two fold: First, to discuss the “Sahelian Paradox” (the increase in runoff in most of the Sahel during the drought, at least during the 1968–1995 period, as described in the 1980s) and paradox of groundwater highlighted in the square degree of Niamey (the rise in water table levels in some endorheic areas during the same drought, evidenced in the 1990s), and second, to attempt to define the application of their respective geographical areas. The land-use changes act as a general factor of hydrological evolution of soils and basins, while some spatial factors explain the great variability in the response to environmental evolution, such as endorheism, geological context, latitudinal climate gradient, and local hydrodynamic behaviour of environment. This paper is literature-based, and incorporates current research advances in the field, as well as a prospective focused on resources and socio-economic impacts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Amazon River, its huge basin, and the changes in biological processes that are rapidly occurring in this region are unquestionably of global significance. Hence, Global Change Biology is delighted to host a special thematic issue devoted to the Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazônia (LBA), which is a multinational, interdisciplinary research program led by Brazil. The goal of LBA is no less modest than its subject: to understand how Amazônia functions as a regional entity in the Earth system and how these functions are changing as a result of ongoing changes in land use. This compilation of 26 papers resulting from LBA-related research covers a broad range of topics: forest stocks of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N); fluxes of greenhouse gases and volatile organic compounds from vegetation, soils and wetlands; mapping and modeling land-use change, fire risk, and soil properties; measuring changes caused by logging, pasturing and cultivating; and new research approaches in meteorology to estimate nocturnal fluxes of C from forests and pastures. Some important new synthesis can be derived from these and other studies. The aboveground biomass of intact Amazonian forests appears to be a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), while the wetlands and soils are a net source of atmospheric methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), respectively. Land-use change has, so far, had only a minor effect on basin-wide emissions of CH4 and N2O, but the net effect of deforestation and reforestation appears to be a significant net release of CO2 to the atmosphere. The sum of the 100-year global warming potentials (GWP) of these annual sources and sinks of CH4, N2O, and CO2 indicate that the Amazonian forest-river system currently may be nearly balanced in terms of the net GWP of these biogenic atmospheric gases. Of course, large uncertainties remain for these estimates, but the papers published here demonstrate tremendous progress, and also large remaining hurdles, in narrowing these uncertainties in our understanding of how Amazônia functions as a regional entity in the Earth system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Farmers in Europe act within guidelines set by agricultural programs, market demands and biophysical constraints. At the same time, they are social actors embedded in their respective family structures and individual lifestyles and preferences. We here present the socio-ecological land-use model SECLAND that provides an improved representation of the versatility in farmer's characteristics and subsequently its impact on land-use decision making. The model combines (1) an agent-based module (ABM) with farmers as agents whose intrinsic behavioural characteristics are represented via farming styles with (2) a probabilistic GIS-based forest regrowth module. We apply the model for the LTSER Eisenwurzen region in northern Austria to explore land-use patterns until the year 2050 under three different scenarios. Our results show the relevance of explicitly considering differences between the responses of individual farmers to changing framework conditions. In order to devise sustainable development paths for future agriculture, it is important to focus on farmers' well-being and recognize it as being equally important as economic success. • This paper provides the description of the bimodular SECLAND land-use model. • We depict the effect of intrinsic factors on farms decision-making. • We investigate the impact of socio-economic and climatic framework changes on land-use patterns. • We analyse intensity shifts, crop and forest type changes as well as forest transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and land-use changes are expected to drive high rates of environmental change and biodiversity loss in Mediterranean ecosystems this century. This paper compares the relative future impacts of land use and climate change on two vulnerable tree species native to Southern California (Juglans californica and Quercus engelmannii) using species distribution models. Under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's A1B future scenario, high levels of both projected land use and climate change could drive considerable habitat losses on these two already heavily-impacted tree species. Under scenarios of no dispersal, projected climate change poses a greater habitat loss threat relative to projected land use for both species. Assuming unlimited dispersal, climate-driven habitat gains could offset some of the losses due to both drivers, especially in J. californica which could experience net habitat gains under combined impacts of both climate change and land use. Quercus engelmannii, in contrast, could experience net habitat losses under combined impacts, even under best-case unlimited dispersal scenarios. Similarly, projected losses and gains in protected habitat are highly sensitive to dispersal scenario, with anywhere from > 60% loss in protected habitat (no dispersal) to > 170% gain in protected habitat (unlimited dispersal). The findings underscore the importance of dispersal in moderating future habitat loss for vulnerable species. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper combines participatory activities (PA) with remote sensing analysis into an integrated methodology to describe and explain land-cover changes. A remote watershed on Mindanao (Philippines) is used to showcase the approach, which hypothesizes that the accuracy of expert knowledge gained from remote sensing techniques can be further enhanced by inputs from vernacular knowledge when attempting to understand complex land mosaics and past land-use changes. Six participatory sessions based on focus-group discussions were conducted. These were enhanced by community-based land-use mapping, resulting in a final total of 21 participatory land-use maps (PLUMs) co-produced by a sample of stakeholders with different sociocultural and ecological perspectives. In parallel, seven satellite images (Landsat MSS, Landsat TM, Landsat ETM+, and SPOT4) were classified following standard techniques and provided snapshots for the years 1976, 1996, and 2010. Local knowledge and collective memory contributed to define and qualify relevant land-use classes. This also provided information about what had caused the land-use changes in the past. Results show that combining PA with remote-sensing analysis provides a unique understanding of land-cover change because the two methods complement and validate one another. Substantive qualitative information regarding the chronology of land-cover change was obtained in a short amount of time across an area poorly covered by scientific literature. The remote sensing techniques contributed to test and to quantify verbal reports of land-use and land-cover change by stakeholders. We conclude that the method is particularly relevant to data-poor areas or conflict zones where rapid reconnaissance work is the only available option. It provides a preliminary but accurate baseline for capturing land changes and for reporting their causes and consequences. A discussion of the main challenges encountered (i.e. how to combine different systems of knowledge), and options for further methodological improvements, are also provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper provides an interdisciplinary perspective on mine reclamation in forested areas of Ghana, a country characterised by conflicts between mining and forest conservation. A comparison was made between above ground biomass (AGB) and soil organic carbon (SOC) content from two reclaimed mine sites and adjacent undisturbed forest. Findings suggest that on decadal timescales, reclaimed mine sites contain approximately 40% of the total carbon and 10% the AGB carbon of undisturbed forest. This raises questions regarding the potential for decommissioning mine sites to provide forestry-based legacies. Such a move could deliver a host of benefits, including improving the longevity and success of reclamation, mitigating climate change and delivering corollary enumeration for local communities under carbon trading schemes. A discussion of the antecedents and challenges associated with establishing forest-legacies highlights the risk of neglecting the participation and heterogeneity of legitimate local representatives, which threatens the equity of potential benefits and sustainability of projects. Despite these risks, implementing pilot projects could help to address the lack of transparency and data which currently characterises mine reclamation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Based on a meta-study, the paper describes the existing options, areal extents, and Swedish farmers'' conditions for energy crop production promoted by the governments to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The drivers of and barriers to cultivating various energy crops are described in terms of a variety of motivational factors. The approach used peer-reviewed and gray literature using three Internet sources. Questions addressed include the energy crops available to Swedish farmers and how well established they are in terms of areal extent. What drivers of and barriers to growing energy crops do farmers perceive? How do various motivational factors for these drivers and barriers correspond to the adoption of certain energy crops? The results indicate that 13 energy-related crops are available, of which straw (a residue), oil crops, and wheat are the most extensively produced in terms of cultivated area. Results confirm earlier research findings that converting from annual to perennial crops and from traditional crops or production systems to new ones are important barriers. Economic motivations for changing production systems are strong, but factors such as values (e.g., esthetic), knowledge (e.g., habits and knowledge of production methods), and legal conditions (e.g., cultivation licenses) are crucial for the change to energy crops. Finally, there are knowledge gaps in the literature as to why farmers decide to keep or change a production system. Since the Swedish government and the EU intend to encourage farmers to expand their energy crop production, this knowledge of such motivational factors should be enhanced. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The transition of land between forest and grassland has important implications for greenhouse gas emissions and removals. In this paper, we use New Zealand as a case study to comprehensively assess, compare and quantify the net climate change impact of shifting land use between temperate forest and grassland. Forests store large amounts of carbon in their biomass, whereas grasslands contain relatively little biomass carbon. These biomass changes tend to dominate the carbon balance under land-use change. Soil carbon stocks usually do not change much after deforestation unless subsequent erosion occurs, but some soil carbon is often lost when grasslands are reforested with exotic plantations. Forest soils usually release little nitrous oxide or methane and can even oxidise small amounts of methane. Grasslands, on the other hand, can release a large amount of nitrous oxide, which may be further increased with fertilisation, and is higher for cattle- than sheep-grazed systems. Grazing animals increase emissions because the concentrated forms of nitrogen in their excreta allow it to escape from the system. Ruminant animals can also emit large amounts of methane. Land cover change in addition has direct radiative effects through the amount of solar radiation that is either absorbed by vegetated surfaces or reflected back into space. As forests typically absorb more radiation than grasslands, this slightly negates the greenhouse consequences of changes in carbon storage, and methane and nitrous oxide emissions under land-use change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper I discuss general conceptual issues in the estimation of the impacts of CO2 emissions from soils and biomass, over time, as a result of land-use change (LUC) due to increased demand for energy crops. The effect of LUC on climate depends generally on the magnitude and timing of changes in soil and plant carbon, and in particular on the timing and extent of the reversion of land to original ecosystems at the end of the bioenergy program. Depending on whether one counts the climate impacts of any reversion of land uses, and how one values future climate-change impacts relative to present impacts, one can estimate anywhere from zero to very large climate impacts due to land-use change (LUC). I argue that the best method is to estimate the net present value (NPV) of the impacts of climate change due to LUC. With this approach, one counts the reversion impacts at the end of the program and applies a continuous discounting function to future impacts to express them in present terms. In this case, the impacts of CO2 emissions from the initial LUC then are at least partially offset by the impacts of CO2 sequestration from reversion. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Biofuels are fuels produced from biomass, mostly in liquid form, within a time frame sufficiently short to consider that their feedstock (biomass) can be renewed, contrarily to fossil fuels. This paper reviews the current and future biofuel technologies, and their development impacts (including on the climate) within given policy and economic frameworks. Current technologies make it possible to provide first generation biodiesel, ethanol or biogas to the transport sector to be blended with fossil fuels. Still under-development 2nd generation biofuels from lignocellulose should be available on the market by 2020. Research is active on the improvement of their conversion efficiency. A ten-fold increase compared with current cost-effective capacities would make them highly competitive. Within bioenergy policies, emphasis has been put on biofuels for transportation as this sector is fast-growing and represents a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Compared with fossil fuels, biofuel combustion can emit less greenhouse gases throughout their life cycle, considering that part of the emitted CO2 returns to the atmosphere where it was fixed from by photosynthesis in the first place. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is commonly used to assess the potential environmental impacts of biofuel chains, notably the impact on global warming. This tool, whose holistic nature is fundamental to avoid pollution trade-offs, is a standardised methodology that should make comparisons between biofuel and fossil fuel chains objective and thorough. However, it is a complex and time-consuming process, which requires lots of data, and whose methodology is still lacking harmonisation. Hence the life-cycle performances of biofuel chains vary widely in the literature. Furthermore, LCA is a site- and time-independent tool that cannot take into account the spatial and temporal dimensions of emissions, and can hardly serve as a decision-making tool either at local or regional levels. Focusing on greenhouse gases, emission factors used in LCAs give a rough estimate of the potential average emissions on a national level. However, they do not take into account the types of crop, soil or management practices, for instance. Modelling the impact of local factors on the determinism of greenhouse gas emissions can provide better estimates for LCA on the local level, which would be the relevant scale and degree of reliability for decision-making purposes. Nevertheless, a deeper understanding of the processes involved, most notably NO emissions, is still needed to definitely improve the accuracy of LCA. Perennial crops are a promising option for biofuels, due to their rapid and efficient use of nitrogen, and their limited farming operations. However, the main overall limiting factor to biofuel development will ultimately be land availability. Given the available land areas, population growth rate and consumption behaviours, it would be possible to reach by 2030 a global 10% biofuel share in the transport sector, contributing to lower global greenhouse gas emissions by up to 1 GtCO eq · year (IEA, 2006), provided that harmonised policies ensure that sustainability criteria for the production systems are respected worldwide. Furthermore, policies should also be more integrative across sectors, so that changes in energy efficiency, the automotive sector and global consumption patterns converge towards drastic reduction of the pressure on resources. Indeed, neither biofuels nor other energy source or carriers are likely to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic pressure on resources in a range that would compensate for this pressure growth. Hence, the first step is to reduce this pressure by starting from the variable that drives it up, i.e. anthropic consumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Current carbon accounting methodologies do not accommodate activities that involve emissions reductions from both land-use change and energy production. This paper analyzes the climate change mitigation potential of charcoal production in East Africa by examining the impact of changing both land management and technology. Current production in a major charcoal producing region of Kenya where charcoal is made as a by-product of land clearance for commercial grain production is modeled as the “business-as-usual” scenario. Alternative production systems are proposed based on coppice management of native or exotic trees. Improved kilns are also considered. Changes in aboveground, belowground, and soil carbon are modeled and two distinct baseline assessments are analyzed: one is based on a fixed area of land and one is based on the quantity of non-renewable fuel that is displaced by project activities. The magnitude of carbon emissions reductions varies depending on land management as well as the choice of carbonization technology. However, these variations are smaller than the variations arising from the choice of baseline methodology. The fixed-land baseline yields annualized carbon emission reductions equivalent to 0.5–2.8tons per year (ty−1) with no change in production technology and 0.7–3.5ty−1 with improved kilns. In contrast, the baseline defined by the quantity of displaced non-renewable fuel is 2–6 times larger, yielding carbon emissions reductions of 1.4–12.9ty−1 with no change in production technology and 3.2–20.4ty−1 with improved kilns. The results demonstrate the choice of baseline, often a political rather than scientific decision, is critical in assessing carbon emissions reductions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: During the last few decades, many case studies focused on the dynamics of fluvial systems in response to hillslope erosion, land-use impact, and climate changes. This paper will review the current state of knowledge of the dynamics of past soil erosion and gullying in small catchments (< 1 km2), the effects to adjacent fluvial systems and possible feedback mechanisms to land-use changes for the last 7000 years in central Europe. The discussed studies were made on hillslopes and gully systems in low mountain range areas. They are characterised by coupled slope–channel systems as well as uncoupled systems like closed depressions in Pleistocene lowlands, maars, lakes, and sunken areas. The studies show that sediment fluxes in small catchments are highly sensitive to local land-use changes while river sediments show regional trends in land-use and climate changes. Peaks of soil erosion and gullying took place during phases of rapid climate change. Particularly, extreme precipitation events caused intensive runoff on slopes used for agriculture. The most remarkable phases occurred in the first half of 14th and in the mid-18th to the early 19th century. Most of the gully systems in Europe today are a result of these catastrophic occurrences. These punctuated events triggered land abandonment and influenced the ecosystem and the socio-economic situation. The results imply that a future increase in land-use intensity and extreme precipitation events during climatic change might have severe consequences regarding soil erosion, flood risk, and ecological aspects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper analyses the effect of environmental changes observed in the 20th century on hydrology and water management in the southern Pyrenees, in terms of land use and climate. Moreover, a projected water-resource scenario for the 21st century is presented and discussed. Our results demonstrate that changes in precipitation, temperature, and snow accumulation, together with an increase in vegetation density in headwater regions, have led to a marked reduction in water availability in the region. Water resource managers have introduced major changes to dam operations to meet increasing water demand for irrigation purposes in lowland areas. Climatic and land-cover scenarios for the next century indicate that the sustainability of the equilibrium between available resources and water demand will be seriously threatened. These changes predicted for the Pyrenees may be representative of the changes that will occur within many other Mediterranean mountain sectors with similar climatic and socio-economic conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

[Display omitted] • Grassland degradation is the main reason for the decline in carbon storage. • The carbon storage of farmland has increased significantly. • The risk of carbon storage reduction in the future is still high. The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems is closely related to global climate change. Therefore, assessing the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage is instructive to reduce global carbon emissions. Taking an arid region in northwest China as an example, this paper analyzed the land-use changes in arid region from 1980 to 2015. It used the CA-Markov model to predict the land-use pattern from 2020 to 2050, the carbon storage and sequestration module in Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (Invest) mode to assess and predict ecosystem carbon storage over the past 35 years and in the next 30 years and discusses the impact of land-use changes on the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. The results showed that: (1) The high-value areas of carbon storage in arid region were primarily concentrated in grassland, forests and farmland, and the low-value areas of carbon storage were mainly in desert areas. (2) The carbon storage in arid region showed a downward trend. From 1980 to 2015, the carbon reserves of terrestrial ecosystems in arid region decreased by 90.95 Tg, and the net loss of carbon reserves from 2020 to 2050 was 14.72 Tg. Grassland degradation was the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage in arid region. (3) The carbon storage of farmland had increased significantly, but the expansion of farmland dominated by high carbon density grassland, wetland and forest, had reduced the overall carbon storage of the arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a focus on the Danum Valley area of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, this special issue has as its theme the future of tropical rainforests in a changing landscape and climate. The global environmental context to the issue is briefly given before the contents and rationale of the issue are summarized. Most of the papers are based on research carried out as part of the Royal Society South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme. The issue is divided into five sections: (i) the historical land-use and land management context; (ii) implications of land-use change for atmospheric chemistry and climate change; (iii) impacts of logging, forest fragmentation (particularly within an oil palm plantation landscape) and forest restoration on ecosystems and their functioning; (iv) the response and resilience of rainforest systems to climatic and land-use change; and (v) the scientific messages and policy implications arising from the research findings presented in the issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary The loss of carbon stocks through agricultural land-use change is a key driver of greenhouse gas emissions [ 1–4 ], and the methods used to manage agricultural land will have major impacts on the global climate in the 21 st century [ 4–9 ]. It remains unresolved whether carbon losses would be minimized by increasing farm yields and limiting the conversion of natural habitats (“land sparing”), or maximizing on-farm carbon stocks, even at the cost of reduced yields and therefore greater habitat clearance (“land sharing”). In this paper, we use field surveys of over 11,000 trees, in-depth interviews with farmers, and existing agricultural data, to evaluate the potential impacts of these contrasting approaches, and plausible intermediate strategies, on above-ground carbon stocks across a diverse range of agricultural and natural systems. Our analyses include agroforestry and oil palm plantations in the humid tropics of Ghana; cattle ranching in dry tropical forest in Mexico; and arable cropping in temperate wetlands and forests in Poland. Strikingly, despite the range of systems investigated, land sparing consistently had a higher potential to sustain regional above-ground carbon stocks than any other strategy. This was the case in all three regions and at all plausible levels of food production, including falls in demand. However, if agricultural production increases to meet likely future demand levels, we project large decreases in above-ground carbon stocks, regardless of land-use strategy. Our results strongly suggest that maintaining above-ground carbon stocks will depend on both limiting future food demand and minimizing agricultural expansion through linking high-yield farming with conserving or restoring natural habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]