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Climate change has diverse effects on the planet's environment, including changes and shifts in the distribution and abundance of species. In this paper, we present a robust prediction ensemble algorithm for the current and future species distribution of Aegilops tauschii. Four modeling approaches were trained using various environmental variables (bioclimatic and soil variables) to accurately predict the species distribution for future scenarios. The results showed that GBM and RF demonstrated the most accurate predictions with an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve (AUC) of 0.80 and 0.83, respectively. The results of variable importance depicted that the temperature seasonality (bio4) was the most important and effective factor in determining the habitat suitability of Ae. tauschii, followed closely by the precipitation seasonality (bioclimate 15) and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10). Then, the distribution maps of Ae. tauschii were produced under climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070. The results showed that Ae. tauschii will lose some of its suitable habitats under climate change and that this loss will be more severe in the east part of the study area. The results of the present study have important implications for ecological conservation as they can assist in identifying critical habitats and inform conservation planning efforts. Our model provides a valuable tool for understanding the potential future distribution of Ae. tauschii and highlights the need for continuous monitoring and protection of this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of two most important cereals in the world, and with the continuous increase in population and demand for food consumption worldwide, rice has been attracting researchers' attention for improving its potential yield in the future, particularly as it relates to climate change. However, what will be the potential limit of world rice yield in the future, and how does global warming affect the yield of world rice? Therefore, analyzing the potential yield of world rice affected by global warming is of great significance to direct crop production worldwide in the future. However, by far, most modeled estimations of rice yield are based on the principle of production function from static biological dimension and at local or regional levels, whereas few are based on a time series model from a dynamic evolutionary angle and on global scale. Thus, in this paper, both average and top (national) yields of world rice by 2030 are projected creatively using the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average and Trend Regression (ARIMA-TR) model and based on historic yields since 1961; in addition, the impact of global warming on the yields of world rice is analyzed using a binary regression model in which global mean temperature is treated as the independent variable whereas the yield is expressed as the dependent variable. Our study concludes that between 2021 and 2030, the average yield of world rice is projected to be from 4835 kg/ha to 5195 kg/ha, the top yield from 10,127 kg/ha to 10,269 kg/ha, or the average yield ranging from 47.74% to 50.59% of the top yield. From 1961 to 2020, through to2030, global warming will exert a negative impact on the average yield of world rice less than that of the top yield, which partly drives the gap between these two yields and gradually narrowed; for world rice by 2030, the opportunities for improving global production should be dependent on both high and low yield countries as the average yield is approaching the turning point of an S-shaped curve in the long-term trend. These insights provide the academic circle with innovative comprehension of world rice yield and its biological evolution for global food security relating to global warming in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasingly inter-connected global food system is becoming more vulnerable to production shocks owing to increasing global mean temperatures and more frequent climate extremes. Little is known, however, about the actual risks of multiple breadbasket failure due to extreme weather events. Motivated by the Paris Climate Agreement, this paper quantifies spatial risks to global agriculture in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds. This paper focuses on climate risks posed to three major crops - wheat, soybean and maize - in five major global food producing areas. Climate data from the atmosphere-only HadAM3P model as part of the "Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts" (HAPPI) experiment are used to analyse the risks of climatic extreme events. Using the copula methodology, the risks of simultaneous crop failure in multiple breadbaskets are investigated. Projected losses do not scale linearly with global warming increases between 1.5 and 2 °C Global Mean Temperature (GMT). In general, whilst the differences in yield at 1.5 versus 2 °C are significant they are not as large as the difference between 1.5 °C and the historical baseline which corresponds to 0.85 °C above pre-industrial GMT. Risks of simultaneous crop failure, however, do increase disproportionately between 1.5 and 2 °C, so surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold will represent a threat to global food security. For maize, risks of multiple breadbasket failures increase the most, from 6% to 40% at 1.5 to 54% at 2 °C warming. In relative terms, the highest simultaneous climate risk increase between the two warming scenarios was found for wheat (40%), followed by maize (35%) and soybean (23%). Looking at the impacts on agricultural production, we show that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would avoid production losses of up to 2753 million (161,000, 265,000) tonnes maize (wheat, soybean) in the global breadbaskets and would reduce the risk of simultaneous crop failure by 26%, 28% and 19% respectively. • Climate data from the atmosphere-only HadAM3P model were used to estimate the risks of climatic extreme events in the global breadbaskets. • To analyse the risks of simultaneous breadbasket failure, the copula methodology was applied. • Projected wheat, maize and soybean yield losses in the global breadbaskets increase disproportionately between 1.5 and 2 °C global warming. • The highest simultaneous climate risk increase in the breadbaskets between the two warming scenarios was found for wheat, followed by maize and soybean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the 2014 report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Earth surface has been warming up since the mid-18th century. From the late 1970s, Earth warmed up intensively, leading to unusual environmental, economic and social events. An intensive 19th century's, Earth warming has speeded up ice melting and sea level rise, increased water shortage and drought intensity. Expected drought intensification and expansion would reduce crop production, deteriorating food security and intensifying poor population's hunger. Since climate warming is continuing, we estimate long-term interaction between global warming and high-resolution drought tendencies and its consequences for global and regional food security. This paper develops and investigates satellite-derived 38-year high-resolution drought data sets and evaluate their trends, during 1981-2018. Drought was estimated using satellite-based Vegetation Health (VH) method. The results indicated that for the entire globe, hemispheres and the main grain-producing countries (China, USA and India) drought has not intensified and expanded during 38-year, while the global temperature anomaly has strongly increased. Since drought has not intensified and expanded during strong global warming, food security in the next few years is likely to remain at the level of the most recent decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Production of pork, the most consumed meat globally, is estimated to emit 668 m tonnes CO 2 -eq of greenhouse gases each year. Amongst various production systems that comprise the pig industry, grain-based intensive production is widely regarded as the largest polluter of the environment, and thus it is imperative to develop alternative systems that can provide the right balance between sustainability and food security. Using an original dataset from the Republic of Ireland, this paper examines the life-cycle environmental impacts of representative pig farms operating under varying production efficiencies. For the baseline farm with an average production efficiency, global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP) and eutrophication potential (EP) per kg carcass weight departing the slaughterhouse were estimated to be 3.5 kg CO 2 -eq, 43.8 g SO 2 -eq and 32.1 g PO 4 -eq, respectively. For herds with a higher production efficiency, a 9% improvement in feed conversion ratio was met by 6%, 15% and 12% decreases in GWP, EP, AP, respectively. Scenario and sensitivity analyses also revealed that (a) a switch to high-protein diets results in lower GWP and higher AP and EP, and (b) reducing transportation distances by sourcing domestically produced wheat and barley does not lower environmental impacts in any notable manner. To improve cross-study comparability of these findings, results based on an auxiliary functional unit, kg liveweight departing the farm gate, are also reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food production is one of the main contributors to climate change, but is also vulnerable to the resulting stressors, which is well documented for agriculture and fisheries. Attention is now turning to the rapidly growing aquaculture sector and its vulnerability to a changing climate. Here we explore the extent to which climate stressors and aquaculture, and concomitant adaptation strategies, are studied in science and addressed in public media (news) to assess focus and attribution of climate change. We reviewed 553 scientific publications and 228 news media articles on climate stressors, impacts, and adaptation approaches with respect to aquaculture. Results indicate that coverage in the scientific community of climate stressors on aquaculture have not kept pace with growth of production in the sector, especially compared to agriculture and fisheries. Temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification were most often the focus in science (44%) and news (42%), suggesting some alignment. Combined coverage tended to revolve around Asia, Europe, and North/Central America (70%) and at least 10 countries' science and news linked current impacts on aquaculture to climate change. The majority of scientific articles addressing adaptation were regional rather than global, and emphasized governance and institutional strategies over technological solutions. In all, this research highlights the comparatively nascent focus of climate change implications for aquaculture, narrow emphasis of stressors, but fairly representative coverage of regions with more aquaculture. Our work highlights the need for more research and public awareness of the social and ecological climate change threats and impacts on, and adaptive strategies for aquaculture. • Temp & sea level rise threats to aquaculture were the main focus in science & news. • Focus on Asia, Europe, & N./C. America accounted for 70% of studies. • At least 10 countries linked current impacts on aquaculture to climate change. • Global papers cited technology for adaption, while regional papers cited governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The co-culture of rice and poultry/aquatic animals has become a popular strategy to ensure the critical ecological functions and economic benefits of this ecosystem in recent years. Yet, quantitative synthetic effects of co-culture models on ecological functions and economic benefits in paddy fields are poorly understood. This study conducted a meta-analysis of 4707 observations from 224 published papers on the outcomes of co-culture models in paddy fields. On aggregate, co-culture models significantly reduced CH 4 emissions by 14.8 % as compared with rice monoculture, but did not affect rice yields, N 2 O emissions, and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). However, significant differences in rice yields, CH 4 emissions, GHGI, and economic benefits were observed among various co-culture models and rice-growing regions. Particularly, the co-culture models in East Asia significantly increased rice yields (+2.2 %), reduced CH 4 emissions (–22.1 %), and GHGI (–9.4 %). Importantly, co-culture models improved rice grain quality. Furthermore, co-culture models increased soil fertility (7.8–16.2 %), nutrients content in paddy water (26.2–87.0 %), and net ecological and economic benefits (31.7–71.1 %), while decreasing diseases, pests, and weeds (37.0–84.6 %) in paddy fields. Additionally, we suggest that the production of poultry or aquatic animals that alters input and output would increase net income, and it is necessary to develop co-culture models in paddy fields according to regional differences in the agricultural environment. Therefore, our study provides a reference for maximizing ecological and economic benefits of suitable co-culture models in rice-planted areas. • Compared with rice monoculture, co-culture models significantly reduced CH 4 emissions by 14.8 %. • Co-culture models improved rice grain quality. • Co-culture models reduced water quality, though they improved soil fertility, controlled diseases, pests, and weeds, and generated economic benefits. • It is necessary to develop co-culture models in paddy fields according to regional differences in the agricultural environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the imperatives for food security in the dynamics of climate change and global warming at the local Nigerian scale. Results revealed that exposure and sensitivity to climate risks vary across the country over the years. Analyses of sensitivity to inter-annual and intra-annual climate variability using bivariate correlation and multiple regression methods suggests impending drought in the northern region where livestock farming is predominant. An estimation of the relative contributions of each climate independent variable in determining the variability of crop yield using the backward selection procedures for the regression in the case of inter-annual variability was also conducted. Stepwise approach was adopted for the intra-annual study indexing the impacts of annual climate variability by a parameter computed as annual yield minus mean annual yield, divided by the standard deviation. The results produced a Zdistribution array with values varying from approximately -5 to approximately +5. Values < -3 or > 3 indicate impacts that are significant at 95 percent confidence levels. This study, therefore, established the interwoven relationship between climatic change, global warming and food security; and concludes that storage and preservation techniques or methods be developed as a strategic effort towards food security in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change represents a feedback-loop in which livestock production both contributes to the problem and suffers from the consequences. The impact of global warming and continued, uncontrolled release of greenhouse gasses (GHG) has twofold implications for the livestock industry, and consequently food security. Firstly, the continuous increase in ambient temperature is predicted to have a direct effect on the animal, as well as on food and nutrition security, due to changes associated with temperature itself, relative humidity, rainfall distribution in time and space, altered disease distribution, changes in the ecosystem and biome composition. Secondly, the responsibility of livestock production is to limit the release of greenhouse gases (GHG) or the carbon footprint, in order to ensure future sustainability. This can be done by implementing new or adapted climate-smart production systems, the use of known and new technologies to turn waste into assets, and by promoting sustainable human diets with low environmental impacts. The following elements, which are related to livestock production and climate change, are discussed in this paper: (1) restoring the value of grasslands/rangelands, (2) pastoral risk management and decision support systems, (3) improved production efficiency, (4) global warming and sustainable livestock production, (5) the disentanglement between food and nutritional needs, focusing on nutrient rich core foods, (6) GHG from livestock and carbon sequestration, and (7) water and waste management. No single organization (or industry) within South Africa can perform this research and the implementation thereof on its own. The establishment of a (virtual) centre of excellence in climate-smart livestock production and the environment for the livestock industries, with the objective to share research expertise and information, build capacity and conduct research and development studies, should be a priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change represents a feedback-loop in which livestock production both contributes to the problem and suffers from the consequences. The impact of global warming and continued, uncontrolled release of greenhouse gasses (GHG) has twofold implications for the livestock industry, and consequently food security. Firstly, the continuous increase in ambient temperature is predicted to have a direct effect on the animal, as well as on food and nutrition security, due to changes associated with temperature itself, relative humidity, rainfall distribution in time and space, altered disease distribution, changes in the ecosystem and biome composition. Secondly, the responsibility of livestock production is to limit the release of greenhouse gases (GHG) or the carbon footprint, in order to ensure future sustainability. This can be done by implementing new or adapted climate-smart production systems, the use of known and new technologies to turn waste into assets, and by promoting sustainable human diets with low environmental impacts. The following elements, which are related to livestock production and climate change, are discussed in this paper: (1) restoring the value of grasslands/rangelands, (2) pastoral risk management and decision support systems, (3) improved production efficiency, (4) global warming and sustainable livestock production, (5) the disentanglement between food and nutritional needs, focusing on nutrient rich core foods, (6) GHG from livestock and carbon sequestration, and (7) water and waste management. No single organization (or industry) within South Africa can perform this research and the implementation thereof on its own. The establishment of a (virtual) centre of excellence in climate-smart livestock production and the environment for the livestock industries, with the objective to share research expertise and information, build capacity and conduct research and development studies, should be a priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfed agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 95 % of the local cereal production, impacting hundreds of millions of people. Early identification of poor rainfall conditions is a critical indicator of food security. As such, monitoring accumulated seasonal rainfall gives an important mid-season estimate of final accumulated totals. However, characterizing the remaining uncertainty in a season has largely been ignored by the food security community. This paper presents a new technique describing rainfall conditions over the duration of a crop-growing cycle by combining estimated rainfall-to-date with potential scenarios for the remaining season based on available satellite rainfall estimates, the common tool for rainfall analysis in Africa. The limited historical record provided by satellite rainfall estimates using previous seasons provides only a coarse view of likely seasonal totals. To combat this, scenarios developed by bootstrapping dekadal data to create synthetic seasons allow for a finer understanding of potential seasonal accumulations. Updating this throughout the season shows a narrowing envelope of seasonal totals, converging on the final seasonal result. The resulting scenarios inform the expectations for the final seasonal rainfall accumulation, allowing analysts to quantify and visualize the uncertainty in seasonal totals. Giving decision makers a tool for understanding the likelihood of specific rainfall amounts provides additional time to enact and mobilize efforts to reduce the impact of agricultural drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of climate change on agriculture are a major concern worldwide, but uncertainties of climate models and emission scenarios may hamper efforts to adapt to climate change. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is used to estimate the uncertainties and simulate impacts of global warming on wheat production and water use in the main wheat cultivation regions of China, with a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961-90 values. From output of 20 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations are adapted. These are used to drive the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model to simulate wheat production and water use under baseline and global warming scenarios, with and without consideration of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects. Results show that, because of temperature increase, projected wheat-growing periods for GMT changes of 1°, 2°, and 3°C would shorten, with averaged median values of 3.94%, 6.90%, and 9.67%, respectively. There is a high probability of decreasing (increasing) changes in yield and water-use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios without (with) consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. Elevated CO2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures. The findings could be critical for climate-change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Recently increasing studies suggest that a comprehensive assessment of cropping practices impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at yield-scale will benefit cropping technique innovation and policy selection for higher-yield with less-emissions. In this paper, we conducted a meta-analysis to quantify the impacts of rice cropping practices on the global warming potential (GWP) of GHG emissions at yield-scale rather than area-scale in China. The results showed that the yield-scaled GWP of Chinese major rice cropping systems during rice growing season was in the order: double rice cropping system (1188.9kg CO2 equiv.Mg−1)>rice-upland crop rotation system (777.0kg CO2 equiv.Mg−1)>single rice cropping system (346.7kg CO2 equiv.Mg−1). Nitrogen fertilization (50–300kgNha−1) significantly increased rice yield with slight increments in the GWP of CH4 and N2O emissions, resulting in significant reductions in the yield-scaled GWP. The greatest reduction occurred at the application rate of 150–200kgNha−1 by 37% as compared to the non-fertilization control. For organic amendments, biogas residue application had no significant effect on the yield-scaled GWP, while manure application and straw recycling significantly increased the yield-scaled GWP by 54% and 154%, respectively. Intermittent irrigation significantly reduced yield-scaled GWP by 59% largely because of a significant reduction in CH4 emission and a significant increment in rice yield. No-tillage showed lower CH4 emission with similar rice yield in comparison with the conventional tillage, resulting in a reduction in yield-scaled GWP by 20%. These results indicate that there is a great potential to meet the new objective of higher-yield with less-GHG emissions through innovating rice cropping technique. More efforts should be paid on the field observations of GHG emissions during non-rice growing season, so as to perform a life-cycling assessment of GHG emissions from rice fields at yield scale under different cropping systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper provides an introduction to the Special Issue on “Climate Change and Coupling of Macronutrient Cycles along the Atmospheric, Terrestrial, Freshwater and Estuarine Continuum”, dedicated to Colin Neal on his retirement. It is not intended to be a review of this vast subject, but an attempt to synthesize some of the major findings from the 22 contributions to the Special Issue in the context of what is already known. The major research challenges involved in understanding coupled macronutrient cycles in these environmental media are highlighted, and the difficulties of making credible predictions of the effects of climate change are discussed. Of particular concern is the possibility of interactions which will enhance greenhouse gas concentrations and provide positive feedback to global warming. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To learn the historical response of cropping system to climate change will benefit the strategy decision of future cropping adaptation. In this paper, we conducted an integrated analysis of the climate records of seventy-two meteorological stations and the records of crop yields over the period 1970–2009 in Northeast China. It was found that over these forty years, the daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures during crop growing season increased on average by 0.34°C, 0.28°C, 0.43°C every ten years, respectively. No significant change in the precipitation was found, although the differences between years were large. After de-trending the agronomic technique contributions to the increments of crop yields, the historical warming had led to great annually increments of 16.6kgha−1, 15.5kgha−1 and 3.2kgha−1 in rice, corn and soybean yields, respectively. According to the historical warming level, present cropping boundaries can be theoretically extended northward about 80km with a prolonged growing period by 10 days compared to the 1970s. Actually, the growth durations of newly approved varieties of rice, corn and soybean have really prolonged by 14.0 days, 7.0 days and 2.7 days since the 1950s, respectively. The actual growing periods of rice and corn have also respectively prolonged by 6 days and 4 days due to the adjustment of sown and harvest dates by the farmer since 1990s. The existing rice cropping region has been extended northward 80km in the 2006 compared to the 1970. These actual responses were consistent with the theoretical calculation according to the historical warming trends. Our results demonstrate that cropping system owns the potential to progressively and actively adapt to the global warming for high yield through a comprehensive strategy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: China is one of the most important rice production countries in the world, and maintaining high rice productivity in China is very important for world food security. While previous studies showed that rice production in China has been and will be negatively impacted by global warming, the confounding effects of climatic change, variety improvement and agronomic managements have not been separately investigated. In this paper we combine an analysis of climate and rice growth data with crop modeling to investigate the impact of changes in climate, rice varieties, and agronomic management on rice productivity at four sites (Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan) in China. The results showed a significant increase in minimum temperature during all rice growth stages at Wuchang and Zhenjiang, and from heading to maturity at Xinyang, but little change at Hanyuan. Global warming would have led to a reduction in the length of rice growing period and a reduction in grain yield at all study sites, if no varietal changes had occurred. However, the adoption of new rice varieties stabilized growing duration, increased harvest index and grain yield at three of the four sites. In the face of future warming, a planned breeding effort may be needed to offset the negative impact of future climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change is recognised as a significant public health issue that will impact on food security. One of the major contributors to global warming is the livestock industry, and, relative to plant-based agriculture, meat production has a much higher environmental impact in relation to freshwater use, amount of land required, and waste products generated. Promoting increased consumption of plant-based foods is a recommended strategy to reduce human impact on the environment and is also now recognised as a potential strategy to reduce the high rates of some chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease and certain cancers. Currently there is a scant evidence base for policies and programs aiming to increase consumption of plant-based diets and little research on the necessary conditions for that change to occur and the processes involved in such a change. This paper reviews some of the environmental and health consequences of current dietary practices, reviews literature on the determinants of consuming a plant-based diet, and provides recommendations for further research in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generations of Australians, especially those who live in rural or remote areas, have struggled to better understand, manage, and adapt to Australia's unique environmental conditions. Increased awareness of pressures and impacts of population growth has renewed the long-standing debate on the nation's capacity to sustainably manage natural resources. Since 2002, the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists has been active in debates linking science and public policy with a declared intent to inform decision-makers on ways to adapt to changing Australian environmental conditions, assuming a growing population. The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the population policy debate from the perspective of an entity that has as its prime objective to improve the nation's capacity to adapt to these changing conditions by influencing public policy on natural resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ongoing climate change has affected individuals' lives in different parts of the world including the traditional communities. The accessibility of natural resources regularly utilized as a wellspring of occupation is so vulnerable against climate change. Alongside the event of an unnatural weather change that brought about outrageous climate change, different regular marvels that happen presently isn't the same any longer. Traditional communities may not comprehend the ideas of a global warming and climate change, yet they watch and feel their impact. Different saw impacts, for example, diminished precipitation, increment in air temperature, expanding the force of the sun and precipitation which isn't balanced out. Mostly food production is declining alongside different climatic changes. In a few simulation of climate change demonstrates of synthetic manure utilization, heat stress and water shortage can prompt a decrease in rice production up to 3.8% in Asia toward the finish of the 21st century. Adjustment and relief to climate change are done with different acclimations to decrease vulnerability or increase resilience to the climate change. Oblivious adaptation and mitigation practices of climate change have been honed by traditional communities through the cultivating frameworks they work. Different systems are completed not exclusively to address nourishment issues and to support their lives. Different discoveries demonstrate that the conventional cultivating framework keep running by the group is plainly ready to keep up their food security in the midst of the danger of dry season, heat stress and different interruptions caused by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]