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This paper discussed the utility and reach of social networks during electoral campaigns. We presented the results of a research that analyzes the use of Twitter by political parties in the legislative elections in Spain December 20th, 2015. Presence of the candidates and political parties during the last month of campaign was quantified, and the quality and quantity of their interactions with their followers was evaluated. The results indicate that Twitter is a good social thermometer, but still it faces a major methodological challenge as a predictive tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper has as its goal the measure of the accuracy of the pre-election surveys published in the Spanish media for the 2014 european Parliament, the regionals in the first half of 2015 and the locals in seven of the biggest Spanish cities. Starting with 120 analysed surveys, the aggregated distance model consists of the differences between predictions and actual results by every party and it develops an error coefficient that allows the measure and comparison of those predictions. Results are presented by election, communication group where predictions were published, research company producing them, political party and time distance to election day. Also it is analysed the existing relation between these and some other variables, such as sample size, and the error coefficient as dependent variable with the objective of knowing which are the most decisive factors affecting polls accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effect of candidates on voting behaviour in the regional elections of 2007 and 2011 in a number of Spanish regions (Autonomous Communities) included in the scope of the so-called 'dominant model of competition.' These are characterised by the total predominance of Spain-wide parties—and absence of any relevant nationalist/regionalist parties—in all electoral contests: Castile and León, Castile-La Mancha, Madrid region, Valencia region, Extremadura, La Rioja and Murcia region. Electoral research in Spain has focused mainly on the strong weight of ideology and party identifi cation in terms of voting behaviour, whereas the impact of the regional candidates themselves has not been analysed in so much detail. Using a series of logistic regressions, this study shows that approving of the regional leader is indeed one of the most signifi cant factors regarding voting decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the predictions of the election results for the Spanish Parliament published in the main Spanish newspapers. To gauge their degree of accuracy, the distance between the predictions and the actual results was defined and later assessed by comparing it with that of the so-called 'perfect poll'. This 'perfect poll' was generated by a simulation using the proportions of votes actually obtained by each party. Other issues related to the published polls are also analysed, such as the relationship between sample size and estimation quality, and between the error made (by excess or defect) for a party and the ideological affinity between that party and the newspaper publishing the survey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyse the influence of the 2008 and 2011 Spanish electoral campaigns on political efficacy. For this purpose, we employ statistical analysis with poll data. The results support the hypothesis that electoral campaigns can have a positive impact on political efficacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article takes over, from an empirical perspective, one of the classic concerns of normative theories of democracy: political community size and citizen participation. Although it focuses on voter turnout, this paper makes a simple question: why and how the political body size can influence the political behaviour of its residents. For this purpose, we examine, from an aggregate approach, the relationship between "size" and turnout in different types of elections in Andalusia, in the period 1999-2011. Our ecological analysis of participation, by using multi-regression techniques, shows that population size is the main "civic" characteristic of localities. However, other characteristics of local contexts, such as income and subsidized agrarian population, are positively related to participation. Our results suggest that individual theories of voting behaviour should also take into account the contextual factor when offering their conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]