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The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950s, based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program (WCRP) was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early season rainfall (ESR) over southern China, usually occurring from April to June, is a prominent meteorological phenomenon of the East Asian monsoon system. In this paper, output from the 45-day hindcast by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and various observational datasets are analyzed to assess the predictability of the ESR and associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that CFSv2 can successfully predict the ESR and associated circulation patterns over southern China. The lower-tropospheric convergence and upper-tropospheric divergence as well as the local upward motion over southern China lead to the formation of ESR. Analysis of bias shows small differences and close relationships between the predicted and observed ESR values when the forecast lead time is less than 2 weeks. The skill in the ESR predictions by CFSv2 decreases significantly when the lead time is longer than 2 weeks. Overall, CFSv2 has a higher level of skill when predicting the southern China ESR compared to the rainfall over other Asian regions during the same period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]